Author Topic: Why Kawhi Leonard...we already have him  (Read 22107 times)

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Re: Why Kawhi Leonard...we already have him
« Reply #105 on: June 16, 2018, 11:48:04 PM »

Offline Eddie20

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We have to ask ourselves if Kawhi was playing in the 7th game vs the Cavs this year and not Brown would he have been better for us?

I think Ainge knows he needs his defense on Bron, KD and Harden...while getting 20 himself.

Can Brown do that? I think he can he's not there yet.

As a 21 year old, Brown averaged 18 points and 5 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player. He also had a bum hamstring.

As a 21 year old, Leonard averaged 14 points and 9 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player.

As a 22 year old, Leonard averaged 14 points and 7 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player. This run included a 4 point game, a 7 point game, and a 6 point game. It also included two 9 point games in the finals.

As a 23 year old, the Spurs were eliminated by the Clippers in the first round of the playoffs. Leonard had 12 points and 13 points in games 6 and 7, both of which were losses.

The concept that, because Brown struggled in game 7, it means his ceiling isn't as high as Leonard, is flawed.

We're not trading for Kawhi at 21, 22, or 23. If Kawhi is healthy, he is better than Brown, and any reasonable expectation of what Brown turns into. I have high hopes for Brown, but Leonard is a two time DPOY and MVP candidate

Disagree but neither of us will say anything new and neither of us will convince the other.

The argument that was made (and has been made in other places) was regarding Jaylen's upside due to his poor last game. That argument is flawed. That was my only point.

No, your premise is flawed. I said that last game vs Cavs because ultimately that's what all this boils down too. Getting Kawhi now is what's important. We know Brown will eventually get better but how much is the question.

In order for Ainge to regret this trade Brown would have to be the DPOY multiple times, and be a top 5 player in the league within 5 years. Is that possible?
Of course its possible that Brown could be that good, but your point is that the odds are that he won't.

I would say that Jaylen's odds of becoming an occasional all star are about 25%
His odds of being Paul George good are about 50%
His odds of being top 5 good are about 25%

Jaylen has a huge upside.

You are also ignoring the very real possibility that Kawhi Leonard doesn't have problems going forward. Last year was disturbing on several levels. It is hardly a sure bet that he comes back as if nothing had happened. There is a very real possibility that Jaylen is the better player in a year or two.
you are basically saying there is a 75% chance brown ends up Paul George at the least. 

That’s wildly optimistic.  The most likely scenario, by far, is that he peaks out as a fringe star that never makes an allstar team.

Brown might end up terrific, but his ceiling is stil lower than prime kawhi.  Best case scenario he ends up like jimmy butler.

I just dont know how anybody can make such a definite statement about his potential. He is already better or comparable to Butler, George, Kawhi, Hayward at age 21. Given that all those guys became all stars or better the statement thay Brown is bery unlikely to be that good seems obviously flawed
Now I agree that Brown is unlikely to be as good as Kawhi, but given thay Kawhi made that leap in a similar situation (hard worker, raw talent lacking skills, good coach, winning team) its not impossible.

 And he doesnt need to reach peak Kawhi for us to regret a deal. Maybe he is just a Paul George level, his is still younger. cheaper, healthier and for all those reasons it could end up a bad trade. Im not saying u dont do it, but we have to be award it could go bad.
hes also the same level of Michael Beasley and Jeff green during their 2nd seasons. 

The way you judge players is so weird. It's this fantasy basketball/empty stats approach that doesn't even consider defense. Besides, Beasley was on that very mediocre Miami team that we trashed 4-1 in the first round, while Green was on a team that finished 23-59. Again, things that you don't even think of considering, which causes you to overrate guys like Okafor and Noel, but underrate guys like Brown, who puts up numbers playing for one of the best teams in the NBA. What's even more odd is that, despite usually being wrong, you continue to follow this approach. I don't even have to look it up to know you were probably going nuts with rookie Tyreke Evans. Surely you had him pegged for the HOF and comparing his rookie numbers with Magic's, Big O's, Jordan's, etc.

Re: Why Kawhi Leonard...we already have him
« Reply #106 on: June 17, 2018, 01:05:19 AM »

Offline Beat LA

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We have to ask ourselves if Kawhi was playing in the 7th game vs the Cavs this year and not Brown would he have been better for us?

I think Ainge knows he needs his defense on Bron, KD and Harden...while getting 20 himself.

Can Brown do that? I think he can he's not there yet.

As a 21 year old, Brown averaged 18 points and 5 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player. He also had a bum hamstring.

As a 21 year old, Leonard averaged 14 points and 9 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player.

As a 22 year old, Leonard averaged 14 points and 7 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player. This run included a 4 point game, a 7 point game, and a 6 point game. It also included two 9 point games in the finals.

As a 23 year old, the Spurs were eliminated by the Clippers in the first round of the playoffs. Leonard had 12 points and 13 points in games 6 and 7, both of which were losses.

The concept that, because Brown struggled in game 7, it means his ceiling isn't as high as Leonard, is flawed.

We're not trading for Kawhi at 21, 22, or 23. If Kawhi is healthy, he is better than Brown, and any reasonable expectation of what Brown turns into. I have high hopes for Brown, but Leonard is a two time DPOY and MVP candidate

Disagree but neither of us will say anything new and neither of us will convince the other.

The argument that was made (and has been made in other places) was regarding Jaylen's upside due to his poor last game. That argument is flawed. That was my only point.

No, your premise is flawed. I said that last game vs Cavs because ultimately that's what all this boils down too. Getting Kawhi now is what's important. We know Brown will eventually get better but how much is the question.

In order for Ainge to regret this trade Brown would have to be the DPOY multiple times, and be a top 5 player in the league within 5 years. Is that possible?
Of course its possible that Brown could be that good, but your point is that the odds are that he won't.

I would say that Jaylen's odds of becoming an occasional all star are about 25%
His odds of being Paul George good are about 50%
His odds of being top 5 good are about 25%

Jaylen has a huge upside.

You are also ignoring the very real possibility that Kawhi Leonard doesn't have problems going forward. Last year was disturbing on several levels. It is hardly a sure bet that he comes back as if nothing had happened. There is a very real possibility that Jaylen is the better player in a year or two.
you are basically saying there is a 75% chance brown ends up Paul George at the least. 

That’s wildly optimistic.  The most likely scenario, by far, is that he peaks out as a fringe star that never makes an allstar team.

Brown might end up terrific, but his ceiling is stil lower than prime kawhi.  Best case scenario he ends up like jimmy butler.

No one has any clue what Jaylen Brown's ceiling is or what his best case scenario is.
lots of players had high ceilings they never reached.  His highest possible ceiling is probably jimmy butler. A mid-level expectation for him is probably André Iguodala.  Still a solid chance he ends up worse.
What are you actually basing these projections on? He doesn’t play like Jimmy Butler nor Iguodala

Yeah, I don't see any similarities, there, either. I tend to think that Brown, at least at this point, is a carbon copy of Jason Richardson.

Not sure as to how I feel about that, lol ;D.

Re: Why Kawhi Leonard...we already have him
« Reply #107 on: June 17, 2018, 01:05:58 AM »

Offline blink

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Folks, we can't forget that Brown was the first or second option on a team that lost it's two best players...Ainge probably realizes that. Ainge contacts the Spurs at the deadline about Kawhi becuase he doesn't expect Tatum to play like a 10 yr vet in the playoffs.

Now when Kyrie and Hayward come back with Horford and Tatum, where is Brown on the food chain?? He's not getting more shots than 3 of the 4. However, we'll need someone to defend while Kyrie and Hayward can get buckets.

I don't mind keeping Brown but remember no one wanted to give up IT until Kyrie came available.
brown will be 4th option if everyone is healthy.  Maybe 6th man

Wait, 6th man?   How do you come to that opinion?  Unless we trade for Kawhi, Brown isn't coming off the bench.  He started the year with Kyrie, GH, Tatum and Horford.  Why on earth after such a great season would Brown suddenly become a 6th man?  That is crazy.

Brown is a top 3 defender on our team with Al and Smart.  He is our 2nd leading scorer during the regular season and basically tied for the leading scorer during the playoffs.  He is probably the best two way player on the team, and you want him as a 6th man?? hahahaha


Re: Why Kawhi Leonard...we already have him
« Reply #108 on: June 17, 2018, 01:07:50 AM »

Offline gouki88

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We have to ask ourselves if Kawhi was playing in the 7th game vs the Cavs this year and not Brown would he have been better for us?

I think Ainge knows he needs his defense on Bron, KD and Harden...while getting 20 himself.

Can Brown do that? I think he can he's not there yet.

As a 21 year old, Brown averaged 18 points and 5 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player. He also had a bum hamstring.

As a 21 year old, Leonard averaged 14 points and 9 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player.

As a 22 year old, Leonard averaged 14 points and 7 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player. This run included a 4 point game, a 7 point game, and a 6 point game. It also included two 9 point games in the finals.

As a 23 year old, the Spurs were eliminated by the Clippers in the first round of the playoffs. Leonard had 12 points and 13 points in games 6 and 7, both of which were losses.

The concept that, because Brown struggled in game 7, it means his ceiling isn't as high as Leonard, is flawed.

We're not trading for Kawhi at 21, 22, or 23. If Kawhi is healthy, he is better than Brown, and any reasonable expectation of what Brown turns into. I have high hopes for Brown, but Leonard is a two time DPOY and MVP candidate

Disagree but neither of us will say anything new and neither of us will convince the other.

The argument that was made (and has been made in other places) was regarding Jaylen's upside due to his poor last game. That argument is flawed. That was my only point.

No, your premise is flawed. I said that last game vs Cavs because ultimately that's what all this boils down too. Getting Kawhi now is what's important. We know Brown will eventually get better but how much is the question.

In order for Ainge to regret this trade Brown would have to be the DPOY multiple times, and be a top 5 player in the league within 5 years. Is that possible?
Of course its possible that Brown could be that good, but your point is that the odds are that he won't.

I would say that Jaylen's odds of becoming an occasional all star are about 25%
His odds of being Paul George good are about 50%
His odds of being top 5 good are about 25%

Jaylen has a huge upside.

You are also ignoring the very real possibility that Kawhi Leonard doesn't have problems going forward. Last year was disturbing on several levels. It is hardly a sure bet that he comes back as if nothing had happened. There is a very real possibility that Jaylen is the better player in a year or two.
you are basically saying there is a 75% chance brown ends up Paul George at the least. 

That’s wildly optimistic.  The most likely scenario, by far, is that he peaks out as a fringe star that never makes an allstar team.

Brown might end up terrific, but his ceiling is stil lower than prime kawhi.  Best case scenario he ends up like jimmy butler.

No one has any clue what Jaylen Brown's ceiling is or what his best case scenario is.
lots of players had high ceilings they never reached.  His highest possible ceiling is probably jimmy butler. A mid-level expectation for him is probably André Iguodala.  Still a solid chance he ends up worse.
What are you actually basing these projections on? He doesn’t play like Jimmy Butler nor Iguodala

Yeah, I don't see any similarities, there, either. I tend to think that Brown, at least at this point, is a carbon copy of Jason Richardson.

Not sure as to how I feel about that, lol ;D.
I think he's definitely closer to JRich, but more of a defender and less of a passer. Although JRich came into the league at 21, so it might be a bit unfair to compare them for a couple of years
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Re: Why Kawhi Leonard...we already have him
« Reply #109 on: June 17, 2018, 01:15:52 AM »

Offline Beat LA

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We have to ask ourselves if Kawhi was playing in the 7th game vs the Cavs this year and not Brown would he have been better for us?

I think Ainge knows he needs his defense on Bron, KD and Harden...while getting 20 himself.

Can Brown do that? I think he can he's not there yet.

As a 21 year old, Brown averaged 18 points and 5 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player. He also had a bum hamstring.

As a 21 year old, Leonard averaged 14 points and 9 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player.

As a 22 year old, Leonard averaged 14 points and 7 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player. This run included a 4 point game, a 7 point game, and a 6 point game. It also included two 9 point games in the finals.

As a 23 year old, the Spurs were eliminated by the Clippers in the first round of the playoffs. Leonard had 12 points and 13 points in games 6 and 7, both of which were losses.

The concept that, because Brown struggled in game 7, it means his ceiling isn't as high as Leonard, is flawed.

We're not trading for Kawhi at 21, 22, or 23. If Kawhi is healthy, he is better than Brown, and any reasonable expectation of what Brown turns into. I have high hopes for Brown, but Leonard is a two time DPOY and MVP candidate

Disagree but neither of us will say anything new and neither of us will convince the other.

The argument that was made (and has been made in other places) was regarding Jaylen's upside due to his poor last game. That argument is flawed. That was my only point.

No, your premise is flawed. I said that last game vs Cavs because ultimately that's what all this boils down too. Getting Kawhi now is what's important. We know Brown will eventually get better but how much is the question.

In order for Ainge to regret this trade Brown would have to be the DPOY multiple times, and be a top 5 player in the league within 5 years. Is that possible?
Of course its possible that Brown could be that good, but your point is that the odds are that he won't.

I would say that Jaylen's odds of becoming an occasional all star are about 25%
His odds of being Paul George good are about 50%
His odds of being top 5 good are about 25%

Jaylen has a huge upside.

You are also ignoring the very real possibility that Kawhi Leonard doesn't have problems going forward. Last year was disturbing on several levels. It is hardly a sure bet that he comes back as if nothing had happened. There is a very real possibility that Jaylen is the better player in a year or two.
you are basically saying there is a 75% chance brown ends up Paul George at the least. 

That’s wildly optimistic.  The most likely scenario, by far, is that he peaks out as a fringe star that never makes an allstar team.

Brown might end up terrific, but his ceiling is stil lower than prime kawhi.  Best case scenario he ends up like jimmy butler.

No one has any clue what Jaylen Brown's ceiling is or what his best case scenario is.
lots of players had high ceilings they never reached.  His highest possible ceiling is probably jimmy butler. A mid-level expectation for him is probably André Iguodala.  Still a solid chance he ends up worse.
What are you actually basing these projections on? He doesn’t play like Jimmy Butler nor Iguodala

Yeah, I don't see any similarities, there, either. I tend to think that Brown, at least at this point, is a carbon copy of Jason Richardson.

Not sure as to how I feel about that, lol ;D.
I think he's definitely closer to JRich, but more of a defender and less of a passer. Although JRich came into the league at 21, so it might be a bit unfair to compare them for a couple of years

I'm just talking in terms of skills and style of play, and in going back and looking at some highlights from Richardson's career, Brown, at this point in time, looks like a clone of the former Michigan State Spartan :-\.

Whoever first made that comparison was right on. The much maligned nbadraft.net, I believe, had Jason Richardson/Jimmy Butler as Brown's player comp.

Re: Why Kawhi Leonard...we already have him
« Reply #110 on: June 17, 2018, 04:33:02 AM »

Offline LarBrd33

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We have to ask ourselves if Kawhi was playing in the 7th game vs the Cavs this year and not Brown would he have been better for us?

I think Ainge knows he needs his defense on Bron, KD and Harden...while getting 20 himself.

Can Brown do that? I think he can he's not there yet.

As a 21 year old, Brown averaged 18 points and 5 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player. He also had a bum hamstring.

As a 21 year old, Leonard averaged 14 points and 9 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player.

As a 22 year old, Leonard averaged 14 points and 7 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player. This run included a 4 point game, a 7 point game, and a 6 point game. It also included two 9 point games in the finals.

As a 23 year old, the Spurs were eliminated by the Clippers in the first round of the playoffs. Leonard had 12 points and 13 points in games 6 and 7, both of which were losses.

The concept that, because Brown struggled in game 7, it means his ceiling isn't as high as Leonard, is flawed.

We're not trading for Kawhi at 21, 22, or 23. If Kawhi is healthy, he is better than Brown, and any reasonable expectation of what Brown turns into. I have high hopes for Brown, but Leonard is a two time DPOY and MVP candidate

Disagree but neither of us will say anything new and neither of us will convince the other.

The argument that was made (and has been made in other places) was regarding Jaylen's upside due to his poor last game. That argument is flawed. That was my only point.

No, your premise is flawed. I said that last game vs Cavs because ultimately that's what all this boils down too. Getting Kawhi now is what's important. We know Brown will eventually get better but how much is the question.

In order for Ainge to regret this trade Brown would have to be the DPOY multiple times, and be a top 5 player in the league within 5 years. Is that possible?
Of course its possible that Brown could be that good, but your point is that the odds are that he won't.

I would say that Jaylen's odds of becoming an occasional all star are about 25%
His odds of being Paul George good are about 50%
His odds of being top 5 good are about 25%

Jaylen has a huge upside.

You are also ignoring the very real possibility that Kawhi Leonard doesn't have problems going forward. Last year was disturbing on several levels. It is hardly a sure bet that he comes back as if nothing had happened. There is a very real possibility that Jaylen is the better player in a year or two.
you are basically saying there is a 75% chance brown ends up Paul George at the least. 

That’s wildly optimistic.  The most likely scenario, by far, is that he peaks out as a fringe star that never makes an allstar team.

Brown might end up terrific, but his ceiling is stil lower than prime kawhi.  Best case scenario he ends up like jimmy butler.

No one has any clue what Jaylen Brown's ceiling is or what his best case scenario is.
lots of players had high ceilings they never reached.  His highest possible ceiling is probably jimmy butler. A mid-level expectation for him is probably André Iguodala.  Still a solid chance he ends up worse.
What are you actually basing these projections on? He doesn’t play like Jimmy Butler nor Iguodala
I agree.  At this point he's not nearly as good as either of their peaks.

Re: Why Kawhi Leonard...we already have him
« Reply #111 on: June 17, 2018, 04:34:59 AM »

Offline LarBrd33

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Folks, we can't forget that Brown was the first or second option on a team that lost it's two best players...Ainge probably realizes that. Ainge contacts the Spurs at the deadline about Kawhi becuase he doesn't expect Tatum to play like a 10 yr vet in the playoffs.

Now when Kyrie and Hayward come back with Horford and Tatum, where is Brown on the food chain?? He's not getting more shots than 3 of the 4. However, we'll need someone to defend while Kyrie and Hayward can get buckets.

I don't mind keeping Brown but remember no one wanted to give up IT until Kyrie came available.
brown will be 4th option if everyone is healthy.  Maybe 6th man

Wait, 6th man?   How do you come to that opinion? 
If we were miraculously able to acquire Kawhi for Smart (sign and trade) + rozier + Yabu + picks - Brown ends up the 6th man behind Kyrie, Kawhi, Hayward, Tatum and Horford. 

More likely we ship him out in such a deal or keep him and he ends up our 4th option next season.

Re: Why Kawhi Leonard...we already have him
« Reply #112 on: June 17, 2018, 04:35:56 AM »

Offline LarBrd33

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We have to ask ourselves if Kawhi was playing in the 7th game vs the Cavs this year and not Brown would he have been better for us?

I think Ainge knows he needs his defense on Bron, KD and Harden...while getting 20 himself.

Can Brown do that? I think he can he's not there yet.

As a 21 year old, Brown averaged 18 points and 5 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player. He also had a bum hamstring.

As a 21 year old, Leonard averaged 14 points and 9 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player.

As a 22 year old, Leonard averaged 14 points and 7 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player. This run included a 4 point game, a 7 point game, and a 6 point game. It also included two 9 point games in the finals.

As a 23 year old, the Spurs were eliminated by the Clippers in the first round of the playoffs. Leonard had 12 points and 13 points in games 6 and 7, both of which were losses.

The concept that, because Brown struggled in game 7, it means his ceiling isn't as high as Leonard, is flawed.

We're not trading for Kawhi at 21, 22, or 23. If Kawhi is healthy, he is better than Brown, and any reasonable expectation of what Brown turns into. I have high hopes for Brown, but Leonard is a two time DPOY and MVP candidate

Disagree but neither of us will say anything new and neither of us will convince the other.

The argument that was made (and has been made in other places) was regarding Jaylen's upside due to his poor last game. That argument is flawed. That was my only point.

No, your premise is flawed. I said that last game vs Cavs because ultimately that's what all this boils down too. Getting Kawhi now is what's important. We know Brown will eventually get better but how much is the question.

In order for Ainge to regret this trade Brown would have to be the DPOY multiple times, and be a top 5 player in the league within 5 years. Is that possible?
Of course its possible that Brown could be that good, but your point is that the odds are that he won't.

I would say that Jaylen's odds of becoming an occasional all star are about 25%
His odds of being Paul George good are about 50%
His odds of being top 5 good are about 25%

Jaylen has a huge upside.

You are also ignoring the very real possibility that Kawhi Leonard doesn't have problems going forward. Last year was disturbing on several levels. It is hardly a sure bet that he comes back as if nothing had happened. There is a very real possibility that Jaylen is the better player in a year or two.
you are basically saying there is a 75% chance brown ends up Paul George at the least. 

That’s wildly optimistic.  The most likely scenario, by far, is that he peaks out as a fringe star that never makes an allstar team.

Brown might end up terrific, but his ceiling is stil lower than prime kawhi.  Best case scenario he ends up like jimmy butler.

No one has any clue what Jaylen Brown's ceiling is or what his best case scenario is.
lots of players had high ceilings they never reached.  His highest possible ceiling is probably jimmy butler. A mid-level expectation for him is probably André Iguodala.  Still a solid chance he ends up worse.
What are you actually basing these projections on? He doesn’t play like Jimmy Butler nor Iguodala

Yeah, I don't see any similarities, there, either. I tend to think that Brown, at least at this point, is a carbon copy of Jason Richardson.

Not sure as to how I feel about that, lol ;D.
I think he's definitely closer to JRich, but more of a defender and less of a passer. Although JRich came into the league at 21, so it might be a bit unfair to compare them for a couple of years
Agreed.  JRich is a reasonable ceiling for him.  Fringe star who put up big numbers, but never made an all-star team. 

Good call.  The question then becomes whether or not you think it's worthwhile to trade for a "top 5" player like Kawhi at the expense of a player who projects as Jason Richardson in a few years?

Re: Why Kawhi Leonard...we already have him
« Reply #113 on: June 17, 2018, 05:04:07 AM »

Offline gouki88

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We have to ask ourselves if Kawhi was playing in the 7th game vs the Cavs this year and not Brown would he have been better for us?

I think Ainge knows he needs his defense on Bron, KD and Harden...while getting 20 himself.

Can Brown do that? I think he can he's not there yet.

As a 21 year old, Brown averaged 18 points and 5 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player. He also had a bum hamstring.

As a 21 year old, Leonard averaged 14 points and 9 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player.

As a 22 year old, Leonard averaged 14 points and 7 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player. This run included a 4 point game, a 7 point game, and a 6 point game. It also included two 9 point games in the finals.

As a 23 year old, the Spurs were eliminated by the Clippers in the first round of the playoffs. Leonard had 12 points and 13 points in games 6 and 7, both of which were losses.

The concept that, because Brown struggled in game 7, it means his ceiling isn't as high as Leonard, is flawed.

We're not trading for Kawhi at 21, 22, or 23. If Kawhi is healthy, he is better than Brown, and any reasonable expectation of what Brown turns into. I have high hopes for Brown, but Leonard is a two time DPOY and MVP candidate

Disagree but neither of us will say anything new and neither of us will convince the other.

The argument that was made (and has been made in other places) was regarding Jaylen's upside due to his poor last game. That argument is flawed. That was my only point.

No, your premise is flawed. I said that last game vs Cavs because ultimately that's what all this boils down too. Getting Kawhi now is what's important. We know Brown will eventually get better but how much is the question.

In order for Ainge to regret this trade Brown would have to be the DPOY multiple times, and be a top 5 player in the league within 5 years. Is that possible?
Of course its possible that Brown could be that good, but your point is that the odds are that he won't.

I would say that Jaylen's odds of becoming an occasional all star are about 25%
His odds of being Paul George good are about 50%
His odds of being top 5 good are about 25%

Jaylen has a huge upside.

You are also ignoring the very real possibility that Kawhi Leonard doesn't have problems going forward. Last year was disturbing on several levels. It is hardly a sure bet that he comes back as if nothing had happened. There is a very real possibility that Jaylen is the better player in a year or two.
you are basically saying there is a 75% chance brown ends up Paul George at the least. 

That’s wildly optimistic.  The most likely scenario, by far, is that he peaks out as a fringe star that never makes an allstar team.

Brown might end up terrific, but his ceiling is stil lower than prime kawhi.  Best case scenario he ends up like jimmy butler.

No one has any clue what Jaylen Brown's ceiling is or what his best case scenario is.
lots of players had high ceilings they never reached.  His highest possible ceiling is probably jimmy butler. A mid-level expectation for him is probably André Iguodala.  Still a solid chance he ends up worse.
What are you actually basing these projections on? He doesn’t play like Jimmy Butler nor Iguodala

Yeah, I don't see any similarities, there, either. I tend to think that Brown, at least at this point, is a carbon copy of Jason Richardson.

Not sure as to how I feel about that, lol ;D.
I think he's definitely closer to JRich, but more of a defender and less of a passer. Although JRich came into the league at 21, so it might be a bit unfair to compare them for a couple of years
Agreed.  JRich is a reasonable ceiling for him.  Fringe star who put up big numbers, but never made an all-star team. 

Good call.  The question then becomes whether or not you think it's worthwhile to trade for a "top 5" player like Kawhi at the expense of a player who projects as Jason Richardson in a few years?
That's only the question if you ignore all context. Kawhi is, or at least was, a top 5 player, but he is injured and may never be that guy again. He is also an impending free agent who has expressed a desire to play in LA (aka as far from Boston as possible, really). JB is a guy who projects to be Richardson-esque, but is cost-controlled for the foreseeable future, is invested in Boston, is a leader of this team and is a healthy 21 year old.
'23 Historical Draft: Orlando Magic.

PG: Terry Porter (90-91) / Steve Francis (00-01)
SG: Joe Dumars (92-93) / Jeff Hornacek (91-92) / Jerry Stackhouse (00-01)
SF: Brandon Roy (08-09) / Walter Davis (78-79)
PF: Terry Cummings (84-85) / Paul Millsap (15-16)
C: Chris Webber (00-01) / Ralph Sampson (83-84) / Andrew Bogut (09-10)

Re: Why Kawhi Leonard...we already have him
« Reply #114 on: June 17, 2018, 05:28:35 AM »

Offline LarBrd33

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We have to ask ourselves if Kawhi was playing in the 7th game vs the Cavs this year and not Brown would he have been better for us?

I think Ainge knows he needs his defense on Bron, KD and Harden...while getting 20 himself.

Can Brown do that? I think he can he's not there yet.

As a 21 year old, Brown averaged 18 points and 5 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player. He also had a bum hamstring.

As a 21 year old, Leonard averaged 14 points and 9 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player.

As a 22 year old, Leonard averaged 14 points and 7 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player. This run included a 4 point game, a 7 point game, and a 6 point game. It also included two 9 point games in the finals.

As a 23 year old, the Spurs were eliminated by the Clippers in the first round of the playoffs. Leonard had 12 points and 13 points in games 6 and 7, both of which were losses.

The concept that, because Brown struggled in game 7, it means his ceiling isn't as high as Leonard, is flawed.

We're not trading for Kawhi at 21, 22, or 23. If Kawhi is healthy, he is better than Brown, and any reasonable expectation of what Brown turns into. I have high hopes for Brown, but Leonard is a two time DPOY and MVP candidate

Disagree but neither of us will say anything new and neither of us will convince the other.

The argument that was made (and has been made in other places) was regarding Jaylen's upside due to his poor last game. That argument is flawed. That was my only point.

No, your premise is flawed. I said that last game vs Cavs because ultimately that's what all this boils down too. Getting Kawhi now is what's important. We know Brown will eventually get better but how much is the question.

In order for Ainge to regret this trade Brown would have to be the DPOY multiple times, and be a top 5 player in the league within 5 years. Is that possible?
Of course its possible that Brown could be that good, but your point is that the odds are that he won't.

I would say that Jaylen's odds of becoming an occasional all star are about 25%
His odds of being Paul George good are about 50%
His odds of being top 5 good are about 25%

Jaylen has a huge upside.

You are also ignoring the very real possibility that Kawhi Leonard doesn't have problems going forward. Last year was disturbing on several levels. It is hardly a sure bet that he comes back as if nothing had happened. There is a very real possibility that Jaylen is the better player in a year or two.
you are basically saying there is a 75% chance brown ends up Paul George at the least. 

That’s wildly optimistic.  The most likely scenario, by far, is that he peaks out as a fringe star that never makes an allstar team.

Brown might end up terrific, but his ceiling is stil lower than prime kawhi.  Best case scenario he ends up like jimmy butler.

No one has any clue what Jaylen Brown's ceiling is or what his best case scenario is.
lots of players had high ceilings they never reached.  His highest possible ceiling is probably jimmy butler. A mid-level expectation for him is probably André Iguodala.  Still a solid chance he ends up worse.
What are you actually basing these projections on? He doesn’t play like Jimmy Butler nor Iguodala

Yeah, I don't see any similarities, there, either. I tend to think that Brown, at least at this point, is a carbon copy of Jason Richardson.

Not sure as to how I feel about that, lol ;D.
I think he's definitely closer to JRich, but more of a defender and less of a passer. Although JRich came into the league at 21, so it might be a bit unfair to compare them for a couple of years
Agreed.  JRich is a reasonable ceiling for him.  Fringe star who put up big numbers, but never made an all-star team. 

Good call.  The question then becomes whether or not you think it's worthwhile to trade for a "top 5" player like Kawhi at the expense of a player who projects as Jason Richardson in a few years?
That's only the question if you ignore all context. Kawhi is, or at least was, a top 5 player, but he is injured and may never be that guy again. He is also an impending free agent who has expressed a desire to play in LA (aka as far from Boston as possible, really). JB is a guy who projects to be Richardson-esque, but is cost-controlled for the foreseeable future, is invested in Boston, is a leader of this team and is a healthy 21 year old.
I totally hear you and I agree that giving up a guy with a Richardson ceiling (or as I've heard others suggest - a Wally Szczerbiak ceiling) for an MVP-caliber player is a no-brainer, but when you consider that MVP-caliber player has injury concerns and might be a rental, having multiple years of a cost-controlled young player with a Wally Szczerbiak ceiling has a lot of appeal. 

Re: Why Kawhi Leonard...we already have him
« Reply #115 on: June 17, 2018, 05:50:02 AM »

Offline Sophomore

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We have to ask ourselves if Kawhi was playing in the 7th game vs the Cavs this year and not Brown would he have been better for us?

I think Ainge knows he needs his defense on Bron, KD and Harden...while getting 20 himself.

Can Brown do that? I think he can he's not there yet.

As a 21 year old, Brown averaged 18 points and 5 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player. He also had a bum hamstring.

As a 21 year old, Leonard averaged 14 points and 9 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player.

As a 22 year old, Leonard averaged 14 points and 7 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player. This run included a 4 point game, a 7 point game, and a 6 point game. It also included two 9 point games in the finals.

As a 23 year old, the Spurs were eliminated by the Clippers in the first round of the playoffs. Leonard had 12 points and 13 points in games 6 and 7, both of which were losses.

The concept that, because Brown struggled in game 7, it means his ceiling isn't as high as Leonard, is flawed.

We're not trading for Kawhi at 21, 22, or 23. If Kawhi is healthy, he is better than Brown, and any reasonable expectation of what Brown turns into. I have high hopes for Brown, but Leonard is a two time DPOY and MVP candidate

Disagree but neither of us will say anything new and neither of us will convince the other.

The argument that was made (and has been made in other places) was regarding Jaylen's upside due to his poor last game. That argument is flawed. That was my only point.

No, your premise is flawed. I said that last game vs Cavs because ultimately that's what all this boils down too. Getting Kawhi now is what's important. We know Brown will eventually get better but how much is the question.

In order for Ainge to regret this trade Brown would have to be the DPOY multiple times, and be a top 5 player in the league within 5 years. Is that possible?
Of course its possible that Brown could be that good, but your point is that the odds are that he won't.

I would say that Jaylen's odds of becoming an occasional all star are about 25%
His odds of being Paul George good are about 50%
His odds of being top 5 good are about 25%

Jaylen has a huge upside.

You are also ignoring the very real possibility that Kawhi Leonard doesn't have problems going forward. Last year was disturbing on several levels. It is hardly a sure bet that he comes back as if nothing had happened. There is a very real possibility that Jaylen is the better player in a year or two.
you are basically saying there is a 75% chance brown ends up Paul George at the least. 

That’s wildly optimistic.  The most likely scenario, by far, is that he peaks out as a fringe star that never makes an allstar team.

Brown might end up terrific, but his ceiling is stil lower than prime kawhi.  Best case scenario he ends up like jimmy butler.

No one has any clue what Jaylen Brown's ceiling is or what his best case scenario is.
lots of players had high ceilings they never reached.  His highest possible ceiling is probably jimmy butler. A mid-level expectation for him is probably André Iguodala.  Still a solid chance he ends up worse.
What are you actually basing these projections on? He doesn’t play like Jimmy Butler nor Iguodala

Yeah, I don't see any similarities, there, either. I tend to think that Brown, at least at this point, is a carbon copy of Jason Richardson.

Not sure as to how I feel about that, lol ;D.
I think he's definitely closer to JRich, but more of a defender and less of a passer. Although JRich came into the league at 21, so it might be a bit unfair to compare them for a couple of years
Agreed.  JRich is a reasonable ceiling for him.  Fringe star who put up big numbers, but never made an all-star team. 

Good call.  The question then becomes whether or not you think it's worthwhile to trade for a "top 5" player like Kawhi at the expense of a player who projects as Jason Richardson in a few years?
That's only the question if you ignore all context. Kawhi is, or at least was, a top 5 player, but he is injured and may never be that guy again. He is also an impending free agent who has expressed a desire to play in LA (aka as far from Boston as possible, really). JB is a guy who projects to be Richardson-esque, but is cost-controlled for the foreseeable future, is invested in Boston, is a leader of this team and is a healthy 21 year old.
I totally hear you and I agree that giving up a guy with a Richardson ceiling (or as I've heard others suggest - a Wally Szczerbiak ceiling) for an MVP-caliber player is a no-brainer, but when you consider that MVP-caliber player has injury concerns and might be a rental, having multiple years of a cost-controlled young player with a Wally Szczerbiak ceiling has a lot of appeal.

Agree that Kawhi’s injury is a major concern. I also think the Szcerbiak comp sells Brown short. This year, Brown routinely guarded the other team’s best scoring wing or off guard. He is already better than Szcerbiak ever was on that side of the ball, and barring injury there’s no reason to think he won’t get better, given his work ethic and time to develop physically. His floor (already achieved) is plus defender; his ceiling is all-NBA defender. 

Re: Why Kawhi Leonard...we already have him
« Reply #116 on: June 17, 2018, 07:10:22 AM »

Offline LarBrd33

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We have to ask ourselves if Kawhi was playing in the 7th game vs the Cavs this year and not Brown would he have been better for us?

I think Ainge knows he needs his defense on Bron, KD and Harden...while getting 20 himself.

Can Brown do that? I think he can he's not there yet.

As a 21 year old, Brown averaged 18 points and 5 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player. He also had a bum hamstring.

As a 21 year old, Leonard averaged 14 points and 9 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player.

As a 22 year old, Leonard averaged 14 points and 7 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player. This run included a 4 point game, a 7 point game, and a 6 point game. It also included two 9 point games in the finals.

As a 23 year old, the Spurs were eliminated by the Clippers in the first round of the playoffs. Leonard had 12 points and 13 points in games 6 and 7, both of which were losses.

The concept that, because Brown struggled in game 7, it means his ceiling isn't as high as Leonard, is flawed.

We're not trading for Kawhi at 21, 22, or 23. If Kawhi is healthy, he is better than Brown, and any reasonable expectation of what Brown turns into. I have high hopes for Brown, but Leonard is a two time DPOY and MVP candidate

Disagree but neither of us will say anything new and neither of us will convince the other.

The argument that was made (and has been made in other places) was regarding Jaylen's upside due to his poor last game. That argument is flawed. That was my only point.

No, your premise is flawed. I said that last game vs Cavs because ultimately that's what all this boils down too. Getting Kawhi now is what's important. We know Brown will eventually get better but how much is the question.

In order for Ainge to regret this trade Brown would have to be the DPOY multiple times, and be a top 5 player in the league within 5 years. Is that possible?
Of course its possible that Brown could be that good, but your point is that the odds are that he won't.

I would say that Jaylen's odds of becoming an occasional all star are about 25%
His odds of being Paul George good are about 50%
His odds of being top 5 good are about 25%

Jaylen has a huge upside.

You are also ignoring the very real possibility that Kawhi Leonard doesn't have problems going forward. Last year was disturbing on several levels. It is hardly a sure bet that he comes back as if nothing had happened. There is a very real possibility that Jaylen is the better player in a year or two.
you are basically saying there is a 75% chance brown ends up Paul George at the least. 

That’s wildly optimistic.  The most likely scenario, by far, is that he peaks out as a fringe star that never makes an allstar team.

Brown might end up terrific, but his ceiling is stil lower than prime kawhi.  Best case scenario he ends up like jimmy butler.

No one has any clue what Jaylen Brown's ceiling is or what his best case scenario is.
lots of players had high ceilings they never reached.  His highest possible ceiling is probably jimmy butler. A mid-level expectation for him is probably André Iguodala.  Still a solid chance he ends up worse.
What are you actually basing these projections on? He doesn’t play like Jimmy Butler nor Iguodala

Yeah, I don't see any similarities, there, either. I tend to think that Brown, at least at this point, is a carbon copy of Jason Richardson.

Not sure as to how I feel about that, lol ;D.
I think he's definitely closer to JRich, but more of a defender and less of a passer. Although JRich came into the league at 21, so it might be a bit unfair to compare them for a couple of years
Agreed.  JRich is a reasonable ceiling for him.  Fringe star who put up big numbers, but never made an all-star team. 

Good call.  The question then becomes whether or not you think it's worthwhile to trade for a "top 5" player like Kawhi at the expense of a player who projects as Jason Richardson in a few years?
That's only the question if you ignore all context. Kawhi is, or at least was, a top 5 player, but he is injured and may never be that guy again. He is also an impending free agent who has expressed a desire to play in LA (aka as far from Boston as possible, really). JB is a guy who projects to be Richardson-esque, but is cost-controlled for the foreseeable future, is invested in Boston, is a leader of this team and is a healthy 21 year old.
I totally hear you and I agree that giving up a guy with a Richardson ceiling (or as I've heard others suggest - a Wally Szczerbiak ceiling) for an MVP-caliber player is a no-brainer, but when you consider that MVP-caliber player has injury concerns and might be a rental, having multiple years of a cost-controlled young player with a Wally Szczerbiak ceiling has a lot of appeal.

Agree that Kawhi’s injury is a major concern. I also think the Szcerbiak comp sells Brown short. This year, Brown routinely guarded the other team’s best scoring wing or off guard. He is already better than Szcerbiak ever was on that side of the ball, and barring injury there’s no reason to think he won’t get better, given his work ethic and time to develop physically. His floor (already achieved) is plus defender; his ceiling is all-NBA defender.
I don't want to sell Szczerbiak short either.  He was an elite shooter and made an all-star team once.  I'm hopeful Jaylen can reach that level.  Peak Szczerbiak flirted with the 50/40/90 club, though, which is unlikely for Jaylen.

Re: Why Kawhi Leonard...we already have him
« Reply #117 on: June 17, 2018, 07:24:43 AM »

Offline gouki88

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We have to ask ourselves if Kawhi was playing in the 7th game vs the Cavs this year and not Brown would he have been better for us?

I think Ainge knows he needs his defense on Bron, KD and Harden...while getting 20 himself.

Can Brown do that? I think he can he's not there yet.

As a 21 year old, Brown averaged 18 points and 5 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player. He also had a bum hamstring.

As a 21 year old, Leonard averaged 14 points and 9 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player.

As a 22 year old, Leonard averaged 14 points and 7 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player. This run included a 4 point game, a 7 point game, and a 6 point game. It also included two 9 point games in the finals.

As a 23 year old, the Spurs were eliminated by the Clippers in the first round of the playoffs. Leonard had 12 points and 13 points in games 6 and 7, both of which were losses.

The concept that, because Brown struggled in game 7, it means his ceiling isn't as high as Leonard, is flawed.

We're not trading for Kawhi at 21, 22, or 23. If Kawhi is healthy, he is better than Brown, and any reasonable expectation of what Brown turns into. I have high hopes for Brown, but Leonard is a two time DPOY and MVP candidate

Disagree but neither of us will say anything new and neither of us will convince the other.

The argument that was made (and has been made in other places) was regarding Jaylen's upside due to his poor last game. That argument is flawed. That was my only point.

No, your premise is flawed. I said that last game vs Cavs because ultimately that's what all this boils down too. Getting Kawhi now is what's important. We know Brown will eventually get better but how much is the question.

In order for Ainge to regret this trade Brown would have to be the DPOY multiple times, and be a top 5 player in the league within 5 years. Is that possible?
Of course its possible that Brown could be that good, but your point is that the odds are that he won't.

I would say that Jaylen's odds of becoming an occasional all star are about 25%
His odds of being Paul George good are about 50%
His odds of being top 5 good are about 25%

Jaylen has a huge upside.

You are also ignoring the very real possibility that Kawhi Leonard doesn't have problems going forward. Last year was disturbing on several levels. It is hardly a sure bet that he comes back as if nothing had happened. There is a very real possibility that Jaylen is the better player in a year or two.
you are basically saying there is a 75% chance brown ends up Paul George at the least. 

That’s wildly optimistic.  The most likely scenario, by far, is that he peaks out as a fringe star that never makes an allstar team.

Brown might end up terrific, but his ceiling is stil lower than prime kawhi.  Best case scenario he ends up like jimmy butler.

No one has any clue what Jaylen Brown's ceiling is or what his best case scenario is.
lots of players had high ceilings they never reached.  His highest possible ceiling is probably jimmy butler. A mid-level expectation for him is probably André Iguodala.  Still a solid chance he ends up worse.
What are you actually basing these projections on? He doesn’t play like Jimmy Butler nor Iguodala

Yeah, I don't see any similarities, there, either. I tend to think that Brown, at least at this point, is a carbon copy of Jason Richardson.

Not sure as to how I feel about that, lol ;D.
I think he's definitely closer to JRich, but more of a defender and less of a passer. Although JRich came into the league at 21, so it might be a bit unfair to compare them for a couple of years
Agreed.  JRich is a reasonable ceiling for him.  Fringe star who put up big numbers, but never made an all-star team. 

Good call.  The question then becomes whether or not you think it's worthwhile to trade for a "top 5" player like Kawhi at the expense of a player who projects as Jason Richardson in a few years?
That's only the question if you ignore all context. Kawhi is, or at least was, a top 5 player, but he is injured and may never be that guy again. He is also an impending free agent who has expressed a desire to play in LA (aka as far from Boston as possible, really). JB is a guy who projects to be Richardson-esque, but is cost-controlled for the foreseeable future, is invested in Boston, is a leader of this team and is a healthy 21 year old.
I totally hear you and I agree that giving up a guy with a Richardson ceiling (or as I've heard others suggest - a Wally Szczerbiak ceiling) for an MVP-caliber player is a no-brainer, but when you consider that MVP-caliber player has injury concerns and might be a rental, having multiple years of a cost-controlled young player with a Wally Szczerbiak ceiling has a lot of appeal.

Agree that Kawhi’s injury is a major concern. I also think the Szcerbiak comp sells Brown short. This year, Brown routinely guarded the other team’s best scoring wing or off guard. He is already better than Szcerbiak ever was on that side of the ball, and barring injury there’s no reason to think he won’t get better, given his work ethic and time to develop physically. His floor (already achieved) is plus defender; his ceiling is all-NBA defender.
I don't want to sell Szczerbiak short either.  He was an elite shooter and made an all-star team once.  I'm hopeful Jaylen can reach that level.  Peak Szczerbiak flirted with the 50/40/90 club, though, which is unlikely for Jaylen.
Why did you even compare them when they're such different players?

You consistently undersell, or even ignore, the defensive end when evaluating players, particularly JB. I don't get it
'23 Historical Draft: Orlando Magic.

PG: Terry Porter (90-91) / Steve Francis (00-01)
SG: Joe Dumars (92-93) / Jeff Hornacek (91-92) / Jerry Stackhouse (00-01)
SF: Brandon Roy (08-09) / Walter Davis (78-79)
PF: Terry Cummings (84-85) / Paul Millsap (15-16)
C: Chris Webber (00-01) / Ralph Sampson (83-84) / Andrew Bogut (09-10)

Re: Why Kawhi Leonard...we already have him
« Reply #118 on: June 17, 2018, 07:39:25 AM »

Offline Celtics4ever

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Quote
I'm hopeful Jaylen can reach that level.  Peak Szczerbiak flirted with the 50/40/90 club, though, which is unlikely for Jaylen.

Shooting he will be hard to catch especially the 90 FT.   Other than that, I think Brown is better than Wally at D, rebounding and about every other aspect of the game.

Re: Why Kawhi Leonard...we already have him
« Reply #119 on: June 17, 2018, 08:11:07 AM »

Offline DefenseWinsChamps

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What if Leonard has peaked? What if, when he is on a team with other all-star players, he only averages 18, 6, and 2 with all-nba level defense? What if his athleticism is waning as fast as Gerald Wallace's did at the same age?

Cuz that is how I view Leonard moving forward. Brown is almost that already, and has another 6-10 years of peak athleticism and development to his game.

I'm bumping this because I haven't seen interaction with it.

I genuinely think Leonard has peaked. This is an ultimate sell-high moment for the Spurs. If they get a kings ransom and Leonard's athleticism falls off a cliff due to nagging injuries/age, that trade will go down as one of the best trades of the decade.

I think he will likely be closer to 18 points a game in his new system over the next 4-5 years. Here is my reasoning:
1. Waning athleticism combined with poor ball-handling that prohibits him from getting to his spaces on the court
2. Not playing in Pops system, which was tailored to Leonard's spots on the court. Remember when they switched a few years ago from the 4-out offense to playing through the mid-post? That was adjusting the offense to fit Leonard's game, but almost no other team runs that offense in the league. Can Leonard score at that high of a level with a normal NBA offense?
3. He peaked. This is not a player that has had multiple 25 ppg seasons. He had one season like that and one season at 21 ppg. What if he was closer to the 21 ppg than the 25 ppg scorer? That year his free throw rate spiked considerably, way higher than any other year in his career in the NBA or college. One of the first things to go when athleticism wanes is the ability to draw fouls.