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Celtics Basketball => Celtics Talk => Topic started by: Big333223 on February 17, 2018, 06:35:06 PM

Title: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: Big333223 on February 17, 2018, 06:35:06 PM
http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/22459076/zach-lowe-10-things-like-including-great-nba-tank-race
Quote
6. Jaylen Brown, block-by-block

Brown cemented three things as a rookie: He could defend almost every position, hit corner 3s, and post up smaller guards. Those ingredients alone make for an exciting modern NBA wing.

Brown has built atop that foundation. He's letting fly from above the arc, dusting dudes rushing to close out on him, cramming on fools in transition, and dipping his toes into secondary pick-and-roll duty:

...

Brown is 16-of-37 on shots out of the pick-and-roll after venturing just 18 such attempts last season, per Synergy. He's tentative and robotic, as you'd expect. He has coughed up the ball at an alarming rate. Even that floater above is a little awkward. Brown pauses early, forfeiting a chance to accelerate at Jonas Valanciunas, and almost bumps Aron Baynes. He ends up shot-putting a weird, long-distance runner.

But Brown is trying the right stuff, and you see some nascent feel -- the instinct to change pace, keep his defender on his hip, Chris Paul-style, and manipulate the defense. That floater is a handy break-in-case-of-emergency weapon.

Most players don't develop a bunch of high-level offensive skills at once. They build brick-by-brick, using one skill to enable another. Once you can shoot 3s, you can drive around defenders who run you off the arc. The leap from there to functional pick-and-roll work might be the hardest for wing players. It can take years. Some guys never make it. Brown entering the early stages already is a huge win for Boston.

Psst: Boston ranks 28th in points per possession since Jan. 1. They are 29th in the league during that stretch in shot attempts within the restricted area, and dead stinking last in field-goal percentage there, per Cleaning The Glass. Only Sacramento has generated fewer free throws per shot attempt.

Boston will rebound. The Celtics always surge after the All-Star break under Brad Stevens. Tatum will hit 3s again. But it's fair to wonder if these guys can squeeze out enough points against dialed-in postseason defenses.

I love how Jaylen has looked this season. He's still terrible at reading a defense and knowing which move to go to in a given situation but he's developed some real moves and as the game continues to slow down for him, he could still develop into a very special player.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: Jiri Welsch on February 17, 2018, 07:02:48 PM
Like Zach Lowe. But don’t like his take here. Brown is a disappearing act with the occasional good game thrown in. We need better than Jeff Green 2.0
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: moiso on February 17, 2018, 07:08:05 PM
Like Zach Lowe. But don’t like his take here. Brown is a disappearing act with the occasional good game thrown in. We need better than Jeff Green 2.0
Thats not what I see at all.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: nickagneta on February 17, 2018, 07:15:00 PM
Brown has had a great year developing. He's 21, of course he is going to be inconsistent. But he's been a lot more consistent than most 2nd year players, especially since his actions are leading to winning whereas most other young players play for losing teams and just concentrate on scoring.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: tazzmaniac on February 17, 2018, 07:18:33 PM
Quote
Psst: Boston ranks 28th in points per possession since Jan. 1. They are 29th in the league during that stretch in shot attempts within the restricted area, and dead stinking last in field-goal percentage there, per Cleaning The Glass. Only Sacramento has generated fewer free throws per shot attempt.
This is the important nugget.  Not going to have a good, consistent offensive when we're just settling for jumpers. 
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: SCeltic34 on February 17, 2018, 07:28:47 PM
Jaylen has been nothing short of impressive.  He's improved from his rookie year in pretty much every area where I've had question marks about his game.

- Pick and roll.  Got next to zero opportunities in his rookie year.  In the few reps he's had this year, he's looked far better than I would have expected.  Moves with pace and switches speeds, keeps the dribble low and uses his body well when he's in front of the guard defender to create space/protect the ball.
- Passing.  This was probably the biggest question mark I've had.  This year he's shown some really nice passes after beating his man off the dribble or when he's double-teamed in the post.  Some nice passes in transition and as the ballhandler in PnR too.  Much better than I'd expected.
- Shooting off the dribble or off of movement.  Midrange jumper off the dribble looks good.  He's hit a few shots after squaring up on off-ball movement.  He's already a good spot-up shooter from 3.
- Decision making.  Still shaky and commits a lot of errors especially in transition, but he's showing progress and pulling the ball back rather than forcing the issue.  I love his aggression and I don't get upset by his mistakes - he's a 2nd year player.
- Ball handling.  Better but obviously needs to be tightened up.  He's shown advanced moves and good footwork.  What's lacking is polish.
- Defensive awareness.  Good man to man defender.  Improved defensively but still prone to being caught out of position or blowing a PnR coverage.

The one area he's regressed is FT shooting, but I'm not too worried about this at this point in time.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: rocknrollforyoursoul on February 17, 2018, 07:29:02 PM
Quote
Psst: Boston ranks 28th in points per possession since Jan. 1. They are 29th in the league during that stretch in shot attempts within the restricted area, and dead stinking last in field-goal percentage there, per Cleaning The Glass. Only Sacramento has generated fewer free throws per shot attempt.
This is the important nugget.  Not going to have a good, consistent offensive when we're just settling for jumpers.

Boston's two primary problems on offense are the absence of Hayward, and the heavy reliance on outside shooting. The Hayward part will change sooner or later; the latter part can change any time, if the team would simply decide to do so.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: Rondo9 on February 17, 2018, 07:39:19 PM
Quote
Psst: Boston ranks 28th in points per possession since Jan. 1. They are 29th in the league during that stretch in shot attempts within the restricted area, and dead stinking last in field-goal percentage there, per Cleaning The Glass. Only Sacramento has generated fewer free throws per shot attempt.
This is the important nugget.  Not going to have a good, consistent offensive when we're just settling for jumpers.

Or if their best shooters aren't making them. They'll be fine.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: nickagneta on February 17, 2018, 08:20:10 PM
Boston's problem isn't that they take a lot of threes, their problem is they don't make a lot of threes. They do a real good job of getting open looks. They just don't knock them down.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: Roy H. on February 17, 2018, 08:35:34 PM
Like Zach Lowe. But don’t like his take here. Brown is a disappearing act with the occasional good game thrown in. We need better than Jeff Green 2.0
Thats not what I see at all.

Yeah, I see ups and downs typical of a sophomore, but not an ounce of Sleepy Jeff Green.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: Jiri Welsch on February 17, 2018, 08:52:58 PM
Like Zach Lowe. But don’t like his take here. Brown is a disappearing act with the occasional good game thrown in. We need better than Jeff Green 2.0
Thats not what I see at all.

Yeah, I see ups and downs typical of a sophomore, but not an ounce of Sleepy Jeff Green.

Hmm.. wasn’t trying to say Jaylen’s inconsistency is atypical. Rather, that he is an inconsistent player—regardless of his year(s) in the NBA. It’s tough to get extremely excited about Brown when he disappears so often.

The first player that came to mind who typified inconsistency and a 15PPG contribution was Green. I could have chosen a less polarizing comparison, but my point would have remained: Its tough to be excited about a player who is all over the map like Jaylen Brown is.

Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: Roy H. on February 17, 2018, 09:07:28 PM
Like Zach Lowe. But don’t like his take here. Brown is a disappearing act with the occasional good game thrown in. We need better than Jeff Green 2.0
Thats not what I see at all.

Yeah, I see ups and downs typical of a sophomore, but not an ounce of Sleepy Jeff Green.

Hmm.. don’t remember saying that Jaylen’s inconsistency was atypical. The observation was simply that he is an inconsistent player. It’s tough to get extremely excited about Brown when he disappears so often.

The first player that came to mind who typified inconsistency and a 15PPG contribution was Green. I could have chosen a less polarizing comparison, but my point would have remained: Its tough to be excited about a player who is all over the map like Jaylen Brown is.

If you don’t find it atypical of sophomores, then why are you discouraged?

I see a guy who, in his first season getting consistent minutes, is an above-average starting SG.  I don’t see a comparison to Jeff Green, who rarely played with passion or intensity.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: Chris22 on February 17, 2018, 09:11:42 PM
Boston's problem isn't that they take a lot of threes, their problem is they don't make a lot of threes. They do a real good job of getting open looks. They just don't knock them down.

Bingo.
Brad should end every practice with a three point shooting contest.
The Knicks did this a few years ago and really improved their three point shooting.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: keevsnick on February 17, 2018, 09:16:33 PM
Like Zach Lowe. But don’t like his take here. Brown is a disappearing act with the occasional good game thrown in. We need better than Jeff Green 2.0
Thats not what I see at all.

Yeah, I see ups and downs typical of a sophomore, but not an ounce of Sleepy Jeff Green.

Hmm.. wasn’t trying to say Jaylen’s inconsistency is atypical. Rather, that he is an inconsistent player—regardless of his year(s) in the NBA. It’s tough to get extremely excited about Brown when he disappears so often.

The first player that came to mind who typified inconsistency and a 15PPG contribution was Green. I could have chosen a less polarizing comparison, but my point would have remained: Its tough to be excited about a player who is all over the map like Jaylen Brown is.

I have a really tough time respecting the NBA intelligence of people who make this comparison. Jaylen Brown in his short time in the league has dunked on Lebron, clapped in Curry's face, destroyed Porzingus, flexed on Cousins, blown kisses at 76ers and earned the Warriors respect. He has alot of heart, a fire Jeff Green didn't really have. In terms of player type they have little in common besides a J first name and a color last name. The big knock on Jeff was he settled for too many jumpers, Jaylen is at times too agressive. Jaylen is already better at 21 then Jeff Green was. Keep in mind that the Jeff Green you saw in Boston was mid twenties. Jaylen is 21, he's gonna be inconsistent. That's part of beibg young. Comparing their consistency at different ages makes no sense. Part of his inconsistency is the simple fact he doesn't have the skills to put up 20 eveynight, but as Lowe points out he may be getting there. If people aren't high on Jaylen fine, at least use a player comparison that makes even a little bit of sense. The Jeff Green one is lazy.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: Boris Badenov on February 17, 2018, 09:17:35 PM
Like Zach Lowe. But don’t like his take here. Brown is a disappearing act with the occasional good game thrown in. We need better than Jeff Green 2.0
Thats not what I see at all.

Yeah, I see ups and downs typical of a sophomore, but not an ounce of Sleepy Jeff Green.

Hmm.. don’t remember saying that Jaylen’s inconsistency was atypical. The observation was simply that he is an inconsistent player. It’s tough to get extremely excited about Brown when he disappears so often.

The first player that came to mind who typified inconsistency and a 15PPG contribution was Green. I could have chosen a less polarizing comparison, but my point would have remained: Its tough to be excited about a player who is all over the map like Jaylen Brown is.

If you don’t find it atypical of sophomores, then why are you discouraged?

I see a guy who, in his first season getting consistent minutes, is an above-average starting SG.  I don’t see a comparison to Jeff Green, who rarely played with passion or intensity.

And, at Jaylen’s age Jeff Green hadn’t even played his first year in the league, where he began as a 10ppg, 28% from 3pt player. I’ll go out on a limb and say that next year, Jaylen will be both better and more consistent than rookie Jeff Green.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: Atzar on February 17, 2018, 09:24:23 PM
Jeff Green has become a lazy downside comparison for every athletic forward.  They don't really play all that similarly. 
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: nickagneta on February 17, 2018, 09:25:40 PM
Like Zach Lowe. But don’t like his take here. Brown is a disappearing act with the occasional good game thrown in. We need better than Jeff Green 2.0
Thats not what I see at all.

Yeah, I see ups and downs typical of a sophomore, but not an ounce of Sleepy Jeff Green.

Hmm.. wasn’t trying to say Jaylen’s inconsistency is atypical. Rather, that he is an inconsistent player—regardless of his year(s) in the NBA. It’s tough to get extremely excited about Brown when he disappears so often.

The first player that came to mind who typified inconsistency and a 15PPG contribution was Green. I could have chosen a less polarizing comparison, but my point would have remained: Its tough to be excited about a player who is all over the map like Jaylen Brown is.

Jaylen Brown in his short time in the league has dunked on Lebron, clapped in Curry's face, destroyed Porzingus, flexed on Cousins, blown kisses at 76ers and earned the Warriors respect. He has alot of heart, a fire Jeff Green didn't really have. In terms of player type they have little in common besides a J first name and a color last name. The big knock on Jeff was he settled for too many jumpers, Jaylen is at times too agressive. Jaylen is already better at 21 then Jeff Green was. Keep in mind that the Jeff Green you saw in Boston was mid twenties. Jaylen is 21, he's gonna be inconsistent. That's part of beibg young. Comparing their consistency at different ages makes no sense. Part of his inconsistency is the simple fact he doesn't have the skills to put up 20 eveynight, but as Lowe points out he may be getting there. If people aren't high on Jaylen fine, at least use a player comparison that makes even a little bit of sense. The Jeff Green one is lazy.
Let's not call into question others BBIQ. That's disrespectful and against site rules
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: Jiri Welsch on February 17, 2018, 10:20:47 PM
Love that folks are getting stuck on the throwaway comparison and less on the “he’s inconsistent” point. I also am aware that Jaylen is 21 and will likely improve.

Typically around 3000 minutes in the NBA you see a spike in a player’s development. In Brown’s case, I guess I was hoping some of that development would include not disappearing during games.

Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: green_bballers13 on February 17, 2018, 10:56:09 PM
Love that folks are getting stuck on the throwaway comparison and less on the “he’s inconsistent” point. I also am aware that Jaylen is 21 and will likely improve.

Typically around 3000 minutes in the NBA you see a spike in a player’s development. In Brown’s case, I guess I was hoping some of that development would include not disappearing during games.

Why does it matter at this stage of his career that he's inconsistent? A lot of good players were inconsistent at the beginning.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: Jiri Welsch on February 17, 2018, 11:13:00 PM
Love that folks are getting stuck on the throwaway comparison and less on the “he’s inconsistent” point. I also am aware that Jaylen is 21 and will likely improve.

Typically around 3000 minutes in the NBA you see a spike in a player’s development. In Brown’s case, I guess I was hoping some of that development would include not disappearing during games.

Why does it matter at this stage of his career that he's inconsistent? A lot of good players were inconsistent at the beginning.

I think it’s worth noting—and in the case of this thread I appear to be harping on!—because some players remain inconsistent. I guess that’s my worry. And it’s why I brought up that lazy, ignorant, obviously-meant-to-be-all-encompassing comparison to Jeff Green. Because I think there remains a chance that Brown won’t channel his ability into being a consistent performer on a contending team.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: nickagneta on February 17, 2018, 11:14:17 PM
Love that folks are getting stuck on the throwaway comparison and less on the “he’s inconsistent” point. I also am aware that Jaylen is 21 and will likely improve.

Typically around 3000 minutes in the NBA you see a spike in a player’s development. In Brown’s case, I guess I was hoping some of that development would include not disappearing during games.
Jaylen has scored in double digits 39 games this season. He's had 5 or more rebounds 30 times this season. His defense, except recently, has been stellar for a 21 year old. That's not perfect consistency but for a 21 year old looked to be the 2nd offensive option on a top 6 team in the league, that's tremendous.

As for his disappearing during games, blame Stevens. For whole quarters and halves at a time Stevens has him sitting in the corner waiting for a kickout corner three while Kyrie and Horford play two man, PnR ball. Stevens hasn't made an effort to make either Tatum or Brown tremendously integral parts of the offense yet. He probably, rightly so, doesn't think they are ready for it. You can't complain about their scoring consistency if their coach isn't consistently calling their number.

Sure, Jaylen is inconsistent, but as I mentioned earlier, for a 21 year old, on a team expected to go deep in the playoffs, and be a 2nd scoring option, he's dang good and more consistent than you are giving him credit for.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: Jiri Welsch on February 17, 2018, 11:17:49 PM
Love that folks are getting stuck on the throwaway comparison and less on the “he’s inconsistent” point. I also am aware that Jaylen is 21 and will likely improve.

Typically around 3000 minutes in the NBA you see a spike in a player’s development. In Brown’s case, I guess I was hoping some of that development would include not disappearing during games.
Jaylen has scored in double digits 39 games this season. He's had 5 or more rebounds 30 times this season. His defense, except recently, has been stellar for a 21 year old. That's not perfect consistency but for a 21 year old looked to be the 2nd offensive option on a top 6 team in the league, that's tremendous.

As for his disappearing during games, blame Stevens. For whole quarters and halves at a time Stevens has him sitting in the corner waiting for a kickout corner three while Kyrie and Horford play two man, PnR ball. Stevens hasn't made an effort to make either Tatum or Brown tremendously integral parts of the offense yet. He probably, rightly so, doesn't think they are ready for it. You can't complain about their scoring consistency if their coach isn't consistently calling their number.

Sure, Jaylen is inconsistent, but as I mentioned earlier, for a 21 year old, on a team expected to go deep in the playoffs, and be a 2nd scoring option, he's dang good and more consistent than you are giving him credit for.

That’s a fair critique of Stevens. And I wonder if part of that decision-making (re: camping out in the corner) is due to lack of confidence in Brown or just a legitimate shortcoming on the coach’s part?
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: MJohnnyboy on February 17, 2018, 11:22:26 PM
Getting back to what Lowe said, Brown has been pretty impressive this season given that he's played a much bigger role than he was expected to coming into the season.

He has been inconsistent, but growing pains are part of the process in the NBA. I wouldn't be surprised if Brown shows more improvement after the all-star break.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: keevsnick on February 18, 2018, 01:36:14 AM
Like Zach Lowe. But don’t like his take here. Brown is a disappearing act with the occasional good game thrown in. We need better than Jeff Green 2.0
Thats not what I see at all.

Yeah, I see ups and downs typical of a sophomore, but not an ounce of Sleepy Jeff Green.

Hmm.. wasn’t trying to say Jaylen’s inconsistency is atypical. Rather, that he is an inconsistent player—regardless of his year(s) in the NBA. It’s tough to get extremely excited about Brown when he disappears so often.

The first player that came to mind who typified inconsistency and a 15PPG contribution was Green. I could have chosen a less polarizing comparison, but my point would have remained: Its tough to be excited about a player who is all over the map like Jaylen Brown is.

Jaylen Brown in his short time in the league has dunked on Lebron, clapped in Curry's face, destroyed Porzingus, flexed on Cousins, blown kisses at 76ers and earned the Warriors respect. He has alot of heart, a fire Jeff Green didn't really have. In terms of player type they have little in common besides a J first name and a color last name. The big knock on Jeff was he settled for too many jumpers, Jaylen is at times too agressive. Jaylen is already better at 21 then Jeff Green was. Keep in mind that the Jeff Green you saw in Boston was mid twenties. Jaylen is 21, he's gonna be inconsistent. That's part of beibg young. Comparing their consistency at different ages makes no sense. Part of his inconsistency is the simple fact he doesn't have the skills to put up 20 eveynight, but as Lowe points out he may be getting there. If people aren't high on Jaylen fine, at least use a player comparison that makes even a little bit of sense. The Jeff Green one is lazy.
Let's not call into question others BBIQ. That's disrespectful and against site rules

My bad.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: keevsnick on February 18, 2018, 02:12:02 AM
Love that folks are getting stuck on the throwaway comparison and less on the “he’s inconsistent” point. I also am aware that Jaylen is 21 and will likely improve.

Typically around 3000 minutes in the NBA you see a spike in a player’s development. In Brown’s case, I guess I was hoping some of that development would include not disappearing during games.

Why does it matter at this stage of his career that he's inconsistent? A lot of good players were inconsistent at the beginning.

I think it’s worth noting—and in the case of this thread I appear to be harping on!—because some players remain inconsistent. I guess that’s my worry. And it’s why I brought up that lazy, ignorant, obviously-meant-to-be-all-encompassing comparison to Jeff Green. Because I think there remains a chance that Brown won’t channel his ability into being a consistent performer on a contending team.

Sure, most young players are inconsistent. And some stay that way. But we have no reason to believe Jaylen will, most grow out of it with experience and that's especially so for those that show the improvement Jaylen already has early on. What it really comes down to is Jaylen literally can't be Jeff Green right now, because even Jeff Green took five years of being less than he could be before we declared him a dispaointing NBA player.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: GreenEnvy on February 18, 2018, 05:03:18 AM
Like Zach Lowe. But don’t like his take here. Brown is a disappearing act with the occasional good game thrown in. We need better than Jeff Green 2.0
Thats not what I see at all.

Yeah, I see ups and downs typical of a sophomore, but not an ounce of Sleepy Jeff Green.

Hmm.. wasn’t trying to say Jaylen’s inconsistency is atypical. Rather, that he is an inconsistent player—regardless of his year(s) in the NBA. It’s tough to get extremely excited about Brown when he disappears so often.

The first player that came to mind who typified inconsistency and a 15PPG contribution was Green. I could have chosen a less polarizing comparison, but my point would have remained: Its tough to be excited about a player who is all over the map like Jaylen Brown is.

Jaylen Brown in his short time in the league has dunked on Lebron, clapped in Curry's face, destroyed Porzingus, flexed on Cousins, blown kisses at 76ers and earned the Warriors respect. He has alot of heart, a fire Jeff Green didn't really have. In terms of player type they have little in common besides a J first name and a color last name. The big knock on Jeff was he settled for too many jumpers, Jaylen is at times too agressive. Jaylen is already better at 21 then Jeff Green was. Keep in mind that the Jeff Green you saw in Boston was mid twenties. Jaylen is 21, he's gonna be inconsistent. That's part of beibg young. Comparing their consistency at different ages makes no sense. Part of his inconsistency is the simple fact he doesn't have the skills to put up 20 eveynight, but as Lowe points out he may be getting there. If people aren't high on Jaylen fine, at least use a player comparison that makes even a little bit of sense. The Jeff Green one is lazy.
Let's not call into question others BBIQ. That's disrespectful and against site rules

There are much more egregious offenses left and right on here than calling a comparison lazy. C’mon man!

Speaking of which, I go on other various forums and this one is by far the best run one. Moderators are great and the posters generally don’t get into verbal wars or extreme trolling. This is a good community. I have enjoyed being able to disagree civilly with many different posters and never once did I feel offended. Debates are fun on here. Keep up the good work, CB!
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: mctyson on February 18, 2018, 07:34:26 AM
Quote
Psst: Boston ranks 28th in points per possession since Jan. 1. They are 29th in the league during that stretch in shot attempts within the restricted area, and dead stinking last in field-goal percentage there, per Cleaning The Glass. Only Sacramento has generated fewer free throws per shot attempt.
This is the important nugget.  Not going to have a good, consistent offensive when we're just settling for jumpers.

Or, you can settle for jumpers when you have players who can actually make jump shots.  Which the Celtics do not have.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: No Nickname on February 18, 2018, 09:13:46 AM
Love that folks are getting stuck on the throwaway comparison and less on the “he’s inconsistent” point. I also am aware that Jaylen is 21 and will likely improve.

Typically around 3000 minutes in the NBA you see a spike in a player’s development. In Brown’s case, I guess I was hoping some of that development would include not disappearing during games.

Why does it matter at this stage of his career that he's inconsistent? A lot of good players were inconsistent at the beginning.

I think it’s worth noting—and in the case of this thread I appear to be harping on!—because some players remain inconsistent. I guess that’s my worry. And it’s why I brought up that lazy, ignorant, obviously-meant-to-be-all-encompassing comparison to Jeff Green. Because I think there remains a chance that Brown won’t channel his ability into being a consistent performer on a contending team.

Well said. You’ve made great points. It seems like everyone on here gets upset if you tell them their toy isn’t the coolest. It’s ok to critique players who are still developing without it being an outright slam of their potential and value. Brown is getting better every day but the areas where we want to see the most improvement are sometimes a little slower to evolve.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: Roy H. on February 18, 2018, 09:16:21 AM
Love that folks are getting stuck on the throwaway comparison and less on the “he’s inconsistent” point. I also am aware that Jaylen is 21 and will likely improve.

Typically around 3000 minutes in the NBA you see a spike in a player’s development. In Brown’s case, I guess I was hoping some of that development would include not disappearing during games.

Why does it matter at this stage of his career that he's inconsistent? A lot of good players were inconsistent at the beginning.

I think it’s worth noting—and in the case of this thread I appear to be harping on!—because some players remain inconsistent. I guess that’s my worry. And it’s why I brought up that lazy, ignorant, obviously-meant-to-be-all-encompassing comparison to Jeff Green. Because I think there remains a chance that Brown won’t channel his ability into being a consistent performer on a contending team.

Well said. You’ve made great points. It seems like everyone on here gets upset if you tell them their toy isn’t the coolest. It’s ok to critique players who are still developing without it being an outright slam of their potential and value. Brown is getting better every day but the areas where we want to see the most improvement are sometimes a little slower to evolve.

What aspect of Brown’s development has not met your expectations coming into this year?
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: Sophomore on February 18, 2018, 09:53:23 AM
I read in a number of comments that the Celtics don’t have any three-point shooters, or that we just are missing them. On the year, the Celtics are making 37% of their three-point shots, good for seventh best in the league. https://www.teamrankings.com/nba/stat/three-point-pct.

If we want to look for a problem, maybe we should look at their two-point shooting percentage, which is 25th in the league. https://www.teamrankings.com/nba/stat/two-point-pct

I think I know where the criticism of the long distance shooting comes from; there are some games where they go dry from three for a quarter or two, and they are not able to switch it up and go to the rim hard. I know that’s when I start shouting at my tv. But  maybe if they tried that the results would be even worse. Hopefully this is something a dose of Gordon Hayward and  development of the younger players will cure.

Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: PhoSita on February 18, 2018, 10:56:42 AM
Like Zach Lowe. But don’t like his take here. Brown is a disappearing act with the occasional good game thrown in. We need better than Jeff Green 2.0

Not a fair read on brown at all.

Lately hes reminding me of Jason Richardson.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: PhoSita on February 18, 2018, 11:00:29 AM
I was a brown skeptic before the draft. Thought he was too raw and didn't have any established nba level skills.

I realize two major things I was missing:

Extreme athleticism and good size coupled with intelligence is an NBA level skill.

Brown has great focus, discipline, and work ethic, which has translated to him rapidly developing the infrastructure of an advanced NBA game.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: kmart12 on February 18, 2018, 11:28:52 AM
I can understand the frustration regarding Jaylen's inconsistency, but I feel that he has been fairly consistent on the defensive end, which is a tremendous improvement from his rookie year. He may not drop 20 each night, but I feel like he very rarely defends poorly. Jaylen has a long way to go with his handle and choosing his points of attack, but those components of the game come with time.

I understand the Jeff Green comparison has been retracted, but even in terms of inconsistency, both sides of Green's game have fluctuated historically, and Jaylen's inconsistency seems to be centralized on the offensive end and understandably so given his age.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: Celtics4ever on February 18, 2018, 11:33:18 AM
I am very pleased with Brown's progress, he is only a 2nd year player and it is clear that he worked on his game a lot in the off season.  He has shown a lot of progress from his rookie year and if this continues look out.   Not everyone is a consistent pro out of the gate, guys who are outliers and not the norm. 

Its also much harder to do on a contending team than being on a bad team where you get a ton of touches.   Brown is not a top two option on offense and is still puts up decent numbers folks.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: Eja117 on February 18, 2018, 11:53:09 AM
There are times I think Jaylen could do better and there are even times I think he disappears, but I think most of the players on this team are capable of disappearing.

He's the age Paul Pierce was as a junior at Kansas before he came out. If Jaylen were in school right now he'd clearly be lighting it up and any team thinking they could draft him would be pretty happy.

To me watching Jaylen and Tatum is a little like watching young TMac and Grant Hill together.  Or young Pierce and young Toine if Toine hit all his outside shots, was slimmer, more athletic, probably a better defender, smarter, but also not as good at rebounding.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: No Nickname on February 18, 2018, 12:17:42 PM
Love that folks are getting stuck on the throwaway comparison and less on the “he’s inconsistent” point. I also am aware that Jaylen is 21 and will likely improve.

Typically around 3000 minutes in the NBA you see a spike in a player’s development. In Brown’s case, I guess I was hoping some of that development would include not disappearing during games.

Why does it matter at this stage of his career that he's inconsistent? A lot of good players were inconsistent at the beginning.

I think it’s worth noting—and in the case of this thread I appear to be harping on!—because some players remain inconsistent. I guess that’s my worry. And it’s why I brought up that lazy, ignorant, obviously-meant-to-be-all-encompassing comparison to Jeff Green. Because I think there remains a chance that Brown won’t channel his ability into being a consistent performer on a contending team.

Well said. You’ve made great points. It seems like everyone on here gets upset if you tell them their toy isn’t the coolest. It’s ok to critique players who are still developing without it being an outright slam of their potential and value. Brown is getting better every day but the areas where we want to see the most improvement are sometimes a little slower to evolve.

What aspect of Brown’s development has not met your expectations coming into this year?

I had no expectations. I just think posters were being too critical of a valid point he was making.

Well, that’s not true. I thought he was a mediocre free throw shooter last year despite beautiful form. I hoped he would raise his percentage to around 72% this year.

But I have been pleased with his three point shooting. He’s further along there than I thought he’d be.

I just can’t stand his forced drives to the basket where he doesn’t know what to do.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: GreenWarrior on February 18, 2018, 12:33:23 PM
I think offensively brown needs some "go to" moves. defensively I think he's been a bit of a disappointment considering he's supposed to be a defensive minded player. I think maybe he's trying to do too much on that end instead of focusing on his guy 1st. that and the switching style D we play probably doesn't help him.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: Roy H. on February 18, 2018, 01:17:53 PM
I think offensively brown needs some "go to" moves. defensively I think he's been a bit of a disappointment considering he's supposed to be a defensive minded player. I think maybe he's trying to do too much on that end instead of focusing on his guy 1st. that and the switching style D we play probably doesn't help him.

I think his defense has been great.

For instance, he holds opposing players to 39.4% shooting (lowest on the team), 6.1 raw percentage points below their normal average.

That 39.4% is 6th best in the NBA among guys who have played 45 games, 1st among guys who have started at least 50% of the time.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: kmart12 on February 18, 2018, 01:19:50 PM
I think offensively brown needs some "go to" moves. defensively I think he's been a bit of a disappointment considering he's supposed to be a defensive minded player. I think maybe he's trying to do too much on that end instead of focusing on his guy 1st. that and the switching style D we play probably doesn't help him.

I second the need for go-to moves. I think his handles limit his ability to create for himself because he has such a loose and poorly controlled dribble; however, he has a bunch of moves off the catch (e.g., pump fake and drive) that have served him well so far. If he can become less linear on offense, his scoring will drastically improve.

Additionally, I think our lack of rim protection hinders his production a little bit as well. Teams with legitimate rim protection can start fast breaks easier, create more opportunistic offensive possessions, and an athlete like Jaylen would thrive in that context.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: Sophomore on February 18, 2018, 01:55:15 PM
I think offensively brown needs some "go to" moves. defensively I think he's been a bit of a disappointment considering he's supposed to be a defensive minded player. I think maybe he's trying to do too much on that end instead of focusing on his guy 1st. that and the switching style D we play probably doesn't help him.

I second the need for go-to moves. I think his handles limit his ability to create for himself because he has such a loose and poorly controlled dribble; however, he has a bunch of moves off the catch (e.g., pump fake and drive) that have served him well so far. If he can become less linear on offense, his scoring will drastically improve.

Additionally, I think our lack of rim protection hinders his production a little bit as well. Teams with legitimate rim protection can start fast breaks easier, create more opportunistic offensive possessions, and an athlete like Jaylen would thrive in that context.

Agree with all this but think that if we’re patient he’s going to improve. He’s has to try and fail some before he finds his way. He seems to have the right mindset to keep at it, though, and learn. I do see growth in his handle and control of pace - he’s still all-out more than he should be but you see signs of changing pace and letting the game slow down. I think he’s going to get there.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: kmart12 on February 18, 2018, 02:21:57 PM
I think offensively brown needs some "go to" moves. defensively I think he's been a bit of a disappointment considering he's supposed to be a defensive minded player. I think maybe he's trying to do too much on that end instead of focusing on his guy 1st. that and the switching style D we play probably doesn't help him.

I second the need for go-to moves. I think his handles limit his ability to create for himself because he has such a loose and poorly controlled dribble; however, he has a bunch of moves off the catch (e.g., pump fake and drive) that have served him well so far. If he can become less linear on offense, his scoring will drastically improve.

Additionally, I think our lack of rim protection hinders his production a little bit as well. Teams with legitimate rim protection can start fast breaks easier, create more opportunistic offensive possessions, and an athlete like Jaylen would thrive in that context.

Agree with all this but think that if we’re patient he’s going to improve. He’s has to try and fail some before he finds his way. He seems to have the right mindset to keep at it, though, and learn. I do see growth in his handle and control of pace - he’s still all-out more than he should be but you see signs of changing pace and letting the game slow down. I think he’s going to get there.

I see him improving with time, too. Jaylen has exhibited a crossover that, when it does work, can be utilized to create space and gain momentum to capitalize on his ability to get into the lane and finish with force. Jaylen has also shown flashes of a spin move in traffic that players of his build are not usually capable of pulling off. I think he is capable of mastering both of these moves with time (and adding more) and when he does he will be an incredibly difficult defensive assignment for opposing teams.

One thing I have enjoyed from Jaylen's play so far has been his post-up game. Stevens does not run too many plays for him in the post, but when he does, the results have been favorable. Jaylen can spin, drop step, and has an effective fadeaway jumper from the post that are all advanced for a player of his experience. Post-up games are usually the last thing to develop in all-star wings (e.g., Kobe, Wade, and LBJ), so it is exciting to see him thrive in that role when given the opportunity.

I will say that I have been surprised by his development and am encouraged that he will take the next step sooner rather than later.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: Big333223 on February 18, 2018, 03:37:14 PM
I read in a number of comments that the Celtics don’t have any three-point shooters, or that we just are missing them. On the year, the Celtics are making 37% of their three-point shots, good for seventh best in the league. https://www.teamrankings.com/nba/stat/three-point-pct.

If we want to look for a problem, maybe we should look at their two-point shooting percentage, which is 25th in the league. https://www.teamrankings.com/nba/stat/two-point-pct

I think I know where the criticism of the long distance shooting comes from; there are some games where they go dry from three for a quarter or two, and they are not able to switch it up and go to the rim hard. I know that’s when I start shouting at my tv. But  maybe if they tried that the results would be even worse. Hopefully this is something a dose of Gordon Hayward and  development of the younger players will cure.

This. Per basketball-reference today, the Celtics are 8th in 3P% and 6th in 3PA. That sounds good to me.

The Celtics are more in need of players who can finish at the rim and get to the line. The FT's are what we miss the most from IT, who got to the line almost twice as much as Irving did last season.

Jaylen (as he gets better at reading defenses) and Jayson (as he gets stronger and just more experienced) will improve here but it'll take time. Horford just isn't the physical, interior presence that's going to get to the line a bunch.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: Kuberski33 on February 18, 2018, 04:53:36 PM
I personally have been getting very impatient with him and Tatum lately and that's a mistake.  Neither are ready for prime time and that's now becoming pretty obvious.  The Celtics play very well when both are on their game, and can still win when only one of them is. But they're just not consistent and that's not on them, it's just their age. 

For all the great talent the T-Wolves accumulated how crappy was their record until this season when they added some veteran talent to take the pressure off Towns & Wiggins?

This team is I think is realistically probably 3rd best in their conference right now and dropping. However in the big picture, they are on schedule and once Hayward returns that's going to take a lot of pressure off Brown and Tatum's backs.

Jaylen's game is going to be needed because they need someone (besides Irving) who can get to the hoop and keep defenses honest.  For now we have to live with the inconsistency and realize they are very likely going nowhere in the playoffs this season.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: hpantazo on February 18, 2018, 05:22:51 PM
wrong thread
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: RodyTur10 on February 18, 2018, 07:27:17 PM
I think offensively brown needs some "go to" moves. defensively I think he's been a bit of a disappointment considering he's supposed to be a defensive minded player. I think maybe he's trying to do too much on that end instead of focusing on his guy 1st. that and the switching style D we play probably doesn't help him.

I think his defense has been great.

For instance, he holds opposing players to 39.4% shooting (lowest on the team), 6.1 raw percentage points below their normal average.

That 39.4% is 6th best in the NBA among guys who have played 45 games, 1st among guys who have started at least 50% of the time.

Honestly I'm not surprised. I said that I think that Brown is undervalued and I stick with that. Brown should be in consideration for the NBA All-Defensive Team. His man-to-man defense is fantastic.

Team defense could be better, but maybe he doesn't understand that other players get frequently beat by dribbles or pick-and-roll, where's often able to stay in front of his man or recover thanks to his length and athletism.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: trickybilly on February 18, 2018, 11:11:03 PM
Pretty big tangent here, but Jeff Green is actually having pretty nice year in Cleveland. That career 32% from three just kills him though.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: byennie on February 19, 2018, 01:52:08 AM
It occurs to me that Jaylen is a little bit like a 6'7" Avery Bradley right now. Shoots high 30s from outside. Defends. 15 points per night. Better rebounder, more versatile, but lower defensive ceiling (i.e. Bradley was elite in certain matchups). Puts in the work.

If 21 year-old Brown is a step ahead of 23/24 year-old Bradley and follows a similar path of improvement the next 3-5 years, that's an All-Star.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: Ilikesports17 on February 19, 2018, 02:12:35 AM
It occurs to me that Jaylen is a little bit like a 6'7" Avery Bradley right now. Shoots high 30s from outside. Defends. 15 points per night. Better rebounder, more versatile, but lower defensive ceiling (i.e. Bradley was elite in certain matchups). Puts in the work.

If 21 year-old Brown is a step ahead of 23/24 year-old Bradley and follows a similar path of improvement the next 3-5 years, that's an All-Star.
Not sure I agree.

By virtue of his length and frame, I think Brown could really be an unbelievable defender.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: byennie on February 19, 2018, 02:40:02 AM
It occurs to me that Jaylen is a little bit like a 6'7" Avery Bradley right now. Shoots high 30s from outside. Defends. 15 points per night. Better rebounder, more versatile, but lower defensive ceiling (i.e. Bradley was elite in certain matchups). Puts in the work.

If 21 year-old Brown is a step ahead of 23/24 year-old Bradley and follows a similar path of improvement the next 3-5 years, that's an All-Star.
Not sure I agree.

By virtue of his length and frame, I think Brown could really be an unbelievable defender.

Ceiling is maybe the wrong word here. What I mean is that Bradley had an elite ability to shut down PGs early in his career. Brown might get there, but I'd say he's more versatile than elite in any particular matchup right now.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: keevsnick on February 19, 2018, 03:16:03 AM
I think what's impressed me about Jaylen Brown recently is that he is showing growth in a number of different offensive areas. He has began showing some more consi/ stent advanced dribble moves both in transition in half court. The between the legs crossover he had a couple weeks ago, the inn and out dribble on the dunk against Kristaps being examples. He has demonstrated a more varied 3pnt arsenal including hitting some shots coming off screens or on step backs in Iso situations (the wizards OT shot for example). He's done a much better job finding guys for kick outs on drives or dump offs when he gets penetration. And then as Lowe as pointed out he's shown at least some promise in pick and roll. Obviously he's still raw with a lot of these skills, but the fact that he's showing them more means he's developing them. You can begin to see a path on how he could reach all star level offensive output if he continues to make gains in  these areas.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: ImShakHeIsShaq on February 19, 2018, 03:44:11 AM
I think offensively brown needs some "go to" moves. defensively I think he's been a bit of a disappointment considering he's supposed to be a defensive minded player. I think maybe he's trying to do too much on that end instead of focusing on his guy 1st. that and the switching style D we play probably doesn't help him.

I think his defense has been great.

For instance, he holds opposing players to 39.4% shooting (lowest on the team), 6.1 raw percentage points below their normal average.

That 39.4% is 6th best in the NBA among guys who have played 45 games, 1st among guys who have started at least 50% of the time.

Honestly I'm not surprised. I said that I think that Brown is undervalued and I stick with that. Brown should be in consideration for the NBA All-Defensive Team. His man-to-man defense is fantastic.

Team defense could be better, but maybe he doesn't understand that other players get frequently beat by dribbles or pick-and-roll, where's often able to stay in front of his man or recover thanks to his length and athletism.

AB also struggles with team D, he got better through the years though. I think JB has even more of the physical tools to be able to do both at a high level and I think in the end he is going to excel as an all around defender. I think JB is an underrated defender too. I think he could be our best man defender and I think Horford is our best team defender. I know everyone says it's Smart and I wont argue it too much but I just don't feel Smart brings it all game like people rave about. I also find it hard to say Smart is the best just because he has the luxury to expend more energy on D. It was the same for AB early in his career and why people think he was better then. If a guy doesn't have to expend as much offensive energy, it's much easier to go all out on D. As his career has gone on AB started contributing more on offense so his D suffered.

I think JB is blessed with the physical ability and mental makeup to be great on offense and defense and do them both at a top level consistently, like KL and Butler.  Just give him time and experience and that guy is gonna be something IMO.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: Big333223 on February 19, 2018, 07:45:02 AM
I think what's impressed me about Jaylen Brown recently is that he is showing growth in a number of different offensive areas. He has began showing some more consistent advanced dribble moves both in transition in half court. The between the legs crossover he had a couple weeks ago, the inn and out dribble on the dunk against Kristaps being examples. He has demonstrated a more varied 3pnt arsenal including hitting some shots coming off screens or on step backs in Iso situations (the wizards OT shot for example). He's done a much better job finding guys for kick outs on drives or dump offs when he gets penetration. And then as Lowe as pointed out he's shown at least some promise in pick and roll. Obviously he's still raw with a lot of these skills, but the fact that he's showing them more means he's developing them. You can begin to see a path on how he could reach all star level offensive output if he continues to make gains in  these areas.

Yeah, for all the criticism his handle gets, I think it's actually pretty strong. His problem is reading defenses. He often dribbles into traffic or he'll spin right into a defenders chest instead of around them. Things like that. That's not a problem with his ball control, it's his decision making.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: kmart12 on February 19, 2018, 08:22:36 AM
I think what's impressed me about Jaylen Brown recently is that he is showing growth in a number of different offensive areas. He has began showing some more consistent advanced dribble moves both in transition in half court. The between the legs crossover he had a couple weeks ago, the inn and out dribble on the dunk against Kristaps being examples. He has demonstrated a more varied 3pnt arsenal including hitting some shots coming off screens or on step backs in Iso situations (the wizards OT shot for example). He's done a much better job finding guys for kick outs on drives or dump offs when he gets penetration. And then as Lowe as pointed out he's shown at least some promise in pick and roll. Obviously he's still raw with a lot of these skills, but the fact that he's showing them more means he's developing them. You can begin to see a path on how he could reach all star level offensive output if he continues to make gains in  these areas.

Yeah, for all the criticism his handle gets, I think it's actually pretty strong. His problem is reading defenses. He often dribbles into traffic or he'll spin right into a defenders chest instead of around them. Things like that. That's not a problem with his ball control, it's his decision making.

This is a good point; if he were able to pick his spots more effectively I think he would improve his efficiency at getting to the rim. Once he's at the rim, he's a difficult guard and can challenge most NBA bigs with his explosiveness and power.

I think his dribbling has improved from last year, but where I think he struggles is in traffic; he tends to keep the ball too high while maintaining his dribble, and then brings it too low when taking his two steps. I do not have the statistics for how many times he has had the ball swiped at during his gather-and-jump, but I imagine it's high. If he improved his ability to control the ball within a congested space, he'd again improve his efficiency at getting to the rim.

And all of these areas of improvement come with time. As Celtics fans, I think we're lucky to have a prospect who already has other parts of the game figured out (e.g., individual defense, rebounding, post-scoring) and athleticism that cannot be taught; the small stuff is easy to pick up given the amount of game he already has.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: gift on February 19, 2018, 09:00:53 AM
Jaylen Brown has impressed me the most in the last month or so. I wasn't sure if he'd ever be a high IQ player (even though he's a high IQ off the court). But he's doing a lot of little things lately that show the game is slowing down for him. I never would have thought he'd have much potential as a playmaker, but there are signs of that potential now. He needs to keep improving, but the improvement he's shown so far is a good sign.

I think Ainge and/or Stevens called Brown more of an athlete than a basketball player when he was drafted. He's looking more and more like a basketball player these days.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: droopdog7 on February 19, 2018, 11:07:44 AM
It occurs to me that Jaylen is a little bit like a 6'7" Avery Bradley right now. Shoots high 30s from outside. Defends. 15 points per night. Better rebounder, more versatile, but lower defensive ceiling (i.e. Bradley was elite in certain matchups). Puts in the work.

If 21 year-old Brown is a step ahead of 23/24 year-old Bradley and follows a similar path of improvement the next 3-5 years, that's an All-Star.
The question is, how much money will a 23/24 year old brown command, will he be worth it, and will the Celtics be able to afford it?
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: nickagneta on February 19, 2018, 11:12:37 AM
It occurs to me that Jaylen is a little bit like a 6'7" Avery Bradley right now. Shoots high 30s from outside. Defends. 15 points per night. Better rebounder, more versatile, but lower defensive ceiling (i.e. Bradley was elite in certain matchups). Puts in the work.

If 21 year-old Brown is a step ahead of 23/24 year-old Bradley and follows a similar path of improvement the next 3-5 years, that's an All-Star.
The question is, how much money will a 23/24 year old brown command, will he be worth it, and will the Celtics be able to afford it?
Unless he completely stagnates over the next 2 years, which given his growth from season 1 to season 2 isn't likely, he will get the max contract for a player coming off their rookie contract. That's the same year Horford comes off the books so we will see if we can afford both.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: footey on February 19, 2018, 12:30:52 PM
Jaylen has two problems:

1. Zero confidence at foul line. It is hurting his game a lot.
2. Inconsistent asserting himself. He should be attacking the hoop far more frequently.

The two are not unrelated.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: tazzmaniac on February 19, 2018, 12:40:49 PM
It occurs to me that Jaylen is a little bit like a 6'7" Avery Bradley right now. Shoots high 30s from outside. Defends. 15 points per night. Better rebounder, more versatile, but lower defensive ceiling (i.e. Bradley was elite in certain matchups). Puts in the work.

If 21 year-old Brown is a step ahead of 23/24 year-old Bradley and follows a similar path of improvement the next 3-5 years, that's an All-Star.
The question is, how much money will a 23/24 year old brown command, will he be worth it, and will the Celtics be able to afford it?
Unless he completely stagnates over the next 2 years, which given his growth from season 1 to season 2 isn't likely, he will get the max contract for a player coming off their rookie contract. That's the same year Horford comes off the books so we will see if we can afford both.
Brown is going to have to improve a lot to be worth 25M+.  Irving and Hayward will be making 30M+ each.  Tatum will hopefully need to get paid Max the following season. 
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: kraidstar on February 19, 2018, 12:57:16 PM
Pretty big tangent here, but Jeff Green is actually having pretty nice year in Cleveland. That career 32% from three just kills him though.

I mentioned this a few weeks ago in another thread, but IMO he looks 'roided up.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: keevsnick on February 19, 2018, 01:50:44 PM
It occurs to me that Jaylen is a little bit like a 6'7" Avery Bradley right now. Shoots high 30s from outside. Defends. 15 points per night. Better rebounder, more versatile, but lower defensive ceiling (i.e. Bradley was elite in certain matchups). Puts in the work.

If 21 year-old Brown is a step ahead of 23/24 year-old Bradley and follows a similar path of improvement the next 3-5 years, that's an All-Star.
The question is, how much money will a 23/24 year old brown command, will he be worth it, and will the Celtics be able to afford it?
Unless he completely stagnates over the next 2 years, which given his growth from season 1 to season 2 isn't likely, he will get the max contract for a player coming off their rookie contract. That's the same year Horford comes off the books so we will see if we can afford both.
Brown is going to have to improve a lot to be worth 25M+.  Irving and Hayward will be making 30M+ each.  Tatum will hopefully need to get paid Max the following season.

Ya, the Celtics cap sheet going forward is very complicated just in terms of who and how much you pay. What it really comes down to is how much Brown/tatu improve. If Brown is almost as good as Hayward or trending that direction then you let Hayward go and pay Brown. Or maybe Brown or Tatum stagnates. Or maybe Hayward takes a step back after his injury. Or 1000 other things. Its too early to wrry about how much we have too pay Brown or Ttaum because we have no idea what they will be next year or the year after.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: PhoSita on February 19, 2018, 01:59:12 PM
Jaylen browns defensive ceiling is miles high. Avery's has always been severely limited by his lack of size and strength.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: footey on February 19, 2018, 02:24:08 PM
Pretty big tangent here, but Jeff Green is actually having pretty nice year in Cleveland. That career 32% from three just kills him though.

I mentioned this a few weeks ago in another thread, but IMO he looks 'roided up.

Lebron introduced him to his trainer.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: JBcat on February 19, 2018, 03:36:32 PM
It occurs to me that Jaylen is a little bit like a 6'7" Avery Bradley right now. Shoots high 30s from outside. Defends. 15 points per night. Better rebounder, more versatile, but lower defensive ceiling (i.e. Bradley was elite in certain matchups). Puts in the work.

If 21 year-old Brown is a step ahead of 23/24 year-old Bradley and follows a similar path of improvement the next 3-5 years, that's an All-Star.
The question is, how much money will a 23/24 year old brown command, will he be worth it, and will the Celtics be able to afford it?
Unless he completely stagnates over the next 2 years, which given his growth from season 1 to season 2 isn't likely, he will get the max contract for a player coming off their rookie contract. That's the same year Horford comes off the books so we will see if we can afford both.
Brown is going to have to improve a lot to be worth 25M+.  Irving and Hayward will be making 30M+ each.  Tatum will hopefully need to get paid Max the following season.

Ya, the Celtics cap sheet going forward is very complicated just in terms of who and how much you pay. What it really comes down to is how much Brown/tatu improve. If Brown is almost as good as Hayward or trending that direction then you let Hayward go and pay Brown. Or maybe Brown or Tatum stagnates. Or maybe Hayward takes a step back after his injury. Or 1000 other things. Its too early to wrry about how much we have too pay Brown or Ttaum because we have no idea what they will be next year or the year after.

Or if they are all being great players pay the tax. Lol
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: ThePaintedArea on February 19, 2018, 05:50:14 PM
Boston's problem isn't that they take a lot of threes, their problem is they don't make a lot of threes. They do a real good job of getting open looks. They just don't knock them down.

.370, for 7th in the league. Could be better, I guess, but other areas are more deficient, like FT productivity.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: nickagneta on February 19, 2018, 06:29:22 PM
Boston's problem isn't that they take a lot of threes, their problem is they don't make a lot of threes. They do a real good job of getting open looks. They just don't knock them down.

.370, for 7th in the league. Could be better, I guess, but other areas are more deficient, like FT productivity.
Per mmmmm who posted this elsewhere

Irving is a lazy player for the most part. The reason why i say that is because he can literally get to the rim and finish AT WILL, against ANYONE. Yet, he decides to take contested 3's that he never comes close to making. It's just lazy basketball.

That isn't quite what's happening, actually.

Kyrie is actually shooting at a pretty good percentage on contested shots.  He has shot 39.2% on threes that are "tightly" covered (defender between 2 and 4 ft away) and 30% on "very tight" (defender within 2 ft).  The latter is a very small sample of just 10 shots all season, but 30% is actually good on that kind of shot.  And his 39.2% on tightly contested shots (which are his largest sample) is actually very good.  Most player's efficiency tanks with defenders that close.

Where Kyrie is underperforming is, like a lot of our roster, on "wide open" threes.  That is, on shots that have no defender within 6 ft and definitely NOT "contested".   On those shots, Kyrie is shooting just 34.1%.   That's well-below league average (~40%) for wide-open threes.

Unfortunately, Kyrie is not alone.  Only Jayson (46.8%), Yabusele (45.5%), Horford (44.9%) and Jaylen (40.0%) are shooting league-average or above on wide-open threes.   The rest of the roster are all shooting 36.1% or lower on what should be a much higher-percentage shot.

This is very much counter to what is 'normal'.  Most players tend to shoot much, MUCH better on wide-open threes.  Hence the league average is so much higher on that shot than on threes with tighter coverage.   But other than for the 4 guys I mentioned, not so for the Celtics!

Our bizarre underperformance on these shots (which our offense has actually been very good at generating) and our paucity of attempts at the rim (and poor finishing at the rim) are the two glaring reasons our offense is so bad.

As a team, we rank near the bottom of the league in efficiency at these two shot types.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: CelticsJG on February 20, 2018, 03:55:28 PM
I'll wait to year 3 to judge Jaylen. Year 1 to year 2 leap is not surprising to me because he terrible his rookie season so he not choice to go but to improve.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: CFAN38 on February 20, 2018, 04:00:31 PM
Pretty big tangent here, but Jeff Green is actually having pretty nice year in Cleveland. That career 32% from three just kills him though.

This will likely get me a lot of heat but if Morris is traded in the off-season I wouldn't mind the Cs signing Green to the bench. Assuming they sign Smart for less then 9 mill they will have less then the MLE to sign Baynes or Monroe and then will have to get creative to fill the roster and stay under luxury tax. Trading Morris and signing Green to take his spot would make sense.   
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: Roy H. on February 20, 2018, 04:32:05 PM
I'll wait to year 3 to judge Jaylen. Year 1 to year 2 leap is not surprising to me because he terrible his rookie season so he not choice to go but to improve.

Except Jaylen could have regressed, stagnated, or improved marginally. Instead, we ended up with a good starter in year two. That type of progress is pretty rare.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: Tr1boy on February 20, 2018, 04:52:53 PM
Jaylen is a "side player"  in the mold of iguadala

A guy that you cant depend on game in and game out but provides solid D, chips in offensively and may have unexpected offensive outbursts

Tatum has more of a killer instinct but needs to work on his body this offseason. His 19 year old skinny body is not capable to endure a 80 plus game season
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: BackDoorCut on February 20, 2018, 04:57:12 PM
I'll wait to year 3 to judge Jaylen. Year 1 to year 2 leap is not surprising to me because he terrible his rookie season so he not choice to go but to improve.

Jaylen was all rookie second team. On a team that was 1st place in the east which typically means no minutes for rookies. Not sure what else you expect. He wasn't terrible by any measure.  ::)
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: nickagneta on February 20, 2018, 05:17:14 PM
Jaylen is a "side player"  in the mold of iguadala

A guy that you cant depend on game in and game out but provides solid D, chips in offensively and may have unexpected offensive outbursts

Tatum has more of a killer instinct but needs to work on his body this offseason. His 19 year old skinny body is not capable to endure a 80 plus game season
If you're saying Brown is a side or role player now, I agree. If you're saying that's what he will turn out as, I couldn't disagree more.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: Monkhouse on February 20, 2018, 05:27:16 PM
Jaylen is a "side player"  in the mold of iguadala

A guy that you cant depend on game in and game out but provides solid D, chips in offensively and may have unexpected offensive outbursts

Tatum has more of a killer instinct but needs to work on his body this offseason. His 19 year old skinny body is not capable to endure a 80 plus game season

Side player? Role player?

I don't know how you can even watch the Celtics this year, and get that impression.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: moiso on February 20, 2018, 08:09:46 PM
Jaylen is a "side player"  in the mold of iguadala

A guy that you cant depend on game in and game out but provides solid D, chips in offensively and may have unexpected offensive outbursts

Tatum has more of a killer instinct but needs to work on his body this offseason. His 19 year old skinny body is not capable to endure a 80 plus game season
Iguadala is a finals mvp.  He’s been highly dependable over his career.  Not sure how comparing him to Brown is supposed to be a slight to Brown.  Also, the player that Brown is now isn’t anything like the player that he will become.  You act like he’s a finished product rather than the rapidly improving athletic freak with a great body that he is.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: Boris Badenov on February 20, 2018, 08:33:38 PM
Jaylen is a "side player"  in the mold of iguadala

A guy that you cant depend on game in and game out but provides solid D, chips in offensively and may have unexpected offensive outbursts

Tatum has more of a killer instinct but needs to work on his body this offseason. His 19 year old skinny body is not capable to endure a 80 plus game season
Iguadala is a finals mvp.  He’s been highly dependable over his career.  Not sure how comparing him to Brown is supposed to be a slight to Brown.  Also, the player that Brown is now isn’t anything like the player that he will become.  You act like he’s a finished product rather than the rapidly improving athletic freak with a great body that he is.

TP.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: CelticsJG on February 20, 2018, 08:41:11 PM
I'll wait to year 3 to judge Jaylen. Year 1 to year 2 leap is not surprising to me because he terrible his rookie season so he not choice to go but to improve.

Except Jaylen could have regressed, stagnated, or improved marginally. Instead, we ended up with a good starter in year two. That type of progress is pretty rare.

Hard chance for him to regress from last year because how bad he was. If Jaylen was PG then I'll agree with you since they take an extra year to develop. Wings in the NBA tend to improve faster so I am not surprise at the progress.

His biggest improvements depends on how well his feel and BBIQ improves because they are behind schedule. Also need to work on his finishing and becoming a little better shooter

I'll wait to year 3 to judge Jaylen. Year 1 to year 2 leap is not surprising to me because he terrible his rookie season so he not choice to go but to improve.

Jaylen was all rookie second team. On a team that was 1st place in the east which typically means no minutes for rookies. Not sure what else you expect. He wasn't terrible by any measure.  ::)

Jaylen making rookie his 2nd year dont mean much given how bad that class was. He rarely played the first half his rookie year. Second half he played in spots and garbage time. Not to mention the number of times he got benched.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: keevsnick on February 21, 2018, 12:09:22 AM
Jaylen is a "side player"  in the mold of iguadala

A guy that you cant depend on game in and game out but provides solid D, chips in offensively and may have unexpected offensive outbursts

Tatum has more of a killer instinct but needs to work on his body this offseason. His 19 year old skinny body is not capable to endure a 80 plus game season
If you're saying Brown is a side or role player now, I agree. If you're saying that's what he will turn out as, I couldn't disagree more.

Ya i mean he went from rotation prospect to solid starter on top 5 NBA team in one year. He made substantial improvements last year first to second half, again to start this season, and we are just now seeing him doing things like shoot off screens, dish of drives and handle in pick and roll. Not sure why some are so quick too limit his ceiling. He obviously needs to make improvements to reach a star level, but he doesn't really have any substantial weakneses that will handicap him.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: keevsnick on February 21, 2018, 12:16:14 AM
I'll wait to year 3 to judge Jaylen. Year 1 to year 2 leap is not surprising to me because he terrible his rookie season so he not choice to go but to improve.

Except Jaylen could have regressed, stagnated, or improved marginally. Instead, we ended up with a good starter in year two. That type of progress is pretty rare.

Hard chance for him to regress from last year because how bad he was. If Jaylen was PG then I'll agree with you since they take an extra year to develop. Wings in the NBA tend to improve faster so I am not surprise at the progress.

His biggest improvements depends on how well his feel and BBIQ improves because they are behind schedule. Also need to work on his finishing and becoming a little better shooter

I keep seeing this BBIQ thing, and honestly i don't know where people are coming from with this. He generally speaking takes good shots he can make and does so in the flow of the offense. He is looking more and more to pass of drives, in the pick and roll and when doubled in the post. He sticks with his man and has done a much better job working within the team defense this year. He has cut down his turnover % from while upping his usage this year. Where exactly is the low basketball IQ?

One play stands out to me. Rozier had gotten switched on KP in the Knicks game and Jaylen was following his man to the corner. He realized KP had a huge size mismatch on Rozier and saw his man jogging to the corner backed turned so he tapped Rozier on the shoulder and told him to follow his guy while he bodied up KP in the post. KP still had a size advantage but at least it was no longer comical. Thats a good heads up high BBIQ basketball player in the course of game action.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: Tr1boy on February 21, 2018, 12:41:18 AM
Jaylen is a "side player"  in the mold of iguadala

A guy that you cant depend on game in and game out but provides solid D, chips in offensively and may have unexpected offensive outbursts

Tatum has more of a killer instinct but needs to work on his body this offseason. His 19 year old skinny body is not capable to endure a 80 plus game season
Iguadala is a finals mvp.  He’s been highly dependable over his career.  Not sure how comparing him to Brown is supposed to be a slight to Brown.  Also, the player that Brown is now isn’t anything like the player that he will become.  You act like he’s a finished product rather than the rapidly improving athletic freak with a great body that he is.

Dont expect alot from Brown.

He is not a self starter.... Smart getting in his face/inspiring him is a good thing

When I say side player...i mean he is an assistant type like Horford. Starting calibre, just not a player thay can carry a team...through tough times
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: CelticsJG on February 21, 2018, 01:17:11 AM
[qPlentyuthor=keevsnick link=topic=95465.msg2463199#msg2463199 date=1519190174]
I'll wait to year 3 to judge Jaylen. Year 1 to year 2 leap is not surprising to me because he terrible his rookie season so he not choice to go but to improve.

Except Jaylen could have regressed, stagnated, or improved marginally. Instead, we ended up with a good starter in year two. That type of progress is pretty rare.

Hard chance for him to regress from last year because how bad he was. If Jaylen was PG then I'll agree with you since they take an extra year to develop. Wings in the NBA tend to improve faster so I am not surprise at the progress.

His biggest improvements depends on how well his feel and BBIQ improves because they are behind schedule. Also need to work on his finishing and becoming a little better shooter

I keep seeing this BBIQ thing, and honestly i don't know where people are coming from with this. He generally speaking takes good shots he can make and does so in the flow of the offense. He is looking more and more to pass of drives, in the pick and roll and when doubled in the post. He sticks with his man and has done a much better job working within the team defense this year. He has cut down his turnover % from while upping his usage this year. Where exactly is the low basketball IQ?

One play stands out to me. Rozier had gotten switched on KP in the Knicks game and Jaylen was following his man to the corner. He realized KP had a huge size mismatch on Rozier and saw his man jogging to the corner backed turned so he tapped Rozier on the shoulder and told him to follow his guy while he bodied up KP in the post. KP still had a size advantage but at least it was no longer comical. Thats a good heads up high BBIQ basketball player in the course of game action.
[/quote]

Getting looks in the flow to the offense has nothing to do with IQ. Jaylen not good in the PnR, hence why we dont use him why we dont use him that role.  If had good IQ he would be initiating the offense. Also never said BBIQ, it just where it should be. Numerous times where he looked lost on defense and offense, dribbling into multiple defenders, driving and throwing it out bounds, careless turnovers and not to mention all the dumbs.

Starting to see this a lot with Jaylen, we equating his BBIQ with his general IQ which shouldn't be the case.



Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: keevsnick on February 21, 2018, 02:48:34 AM
[qPlentyuthor=keevsnick link=topic=95465.msg2463199#msg2463199 date=1519190174]
I'll wait to year 3 to judge Jaylen. Year 1 to year 2 leap is not surprising to me because he terrible his rookie season so he not choice to go but to improve.

Except Jaylen could have regressed, stagnated, or improved marginally. Instead, we ended up with a good starter in year two. That type of progress is pretty rare.

Hard chance for him to regress from last year because how bad he was. If Jaylen was PG then I'll agree with you since they take an extra year to develop. Wings in the NBA tend to improve faster so I am not surprise at the progress.

His biggest improvements depends on how well his feel and BBIQ improves because they are behind schedule. Also need to work on his finishing and becoming a little better shooter

I keep seeing this BBIQ thing, and honestly i don't know where people are coming from with this. He generally speaking takes good shots he can make and does so in the flow of the offense. He is looking more and more to pass of drives, in the pick and roll and when doubled in the post. He sticks with his man and has done a much better job working within the team defense this year. He has cut down his turnover % from while upping his usage this year. Where exactly is the low basketball IQ?

One play stands out to me. Rozier had gotten switched on KP in the Knicks game and Jaylen was following his man to the corner. He realized KP had a huge size mismatch on Rozier and saw his man jogging to the corner backed turned so he tapped Rozier on the shoulder and told him to follow his guy while he bodied up KP in the post. KP still had a size advantage but at least it was no longer comical. Thats a good heads up high BBIQ basketball player in the course of game action.

Getting looks in the flow to the offense has nothing to do with IQ. Jaylen not good in the PnR, hence why we dont use him why we dont use him that role.  If had good IQ he would be initiating the offense. Also never said BBIQ, it just where it should be. Numerous times where he looked lost on defense and offense, dribbling into multiple defenders, driving and throwing it out bounds, careless turnovers and not to mention all the dumbs.

Starting to see this a lot with Jaylen, we equating his BBIQ with his general IQ which shouldn't be the case.
[/quote]

Theres alot more involved in BBIQ than the ability to run the pick and roll. Getting shots in the flow of the offesne is absolutely related to basketabl IQ. Knowng when to cut, when to clear out a side of the floor, when to take advatge of a mismatch  are all things off ball players do that require knowing how to play in the offense. Lack of pick and roll polish is not even nesscariliy  related to Low BBIQ, pick and roll requires a number of skills like ball handeling, change of pace dribbling and tight passes that Jaylen hasnt mastered yet (although as Lowe points out those skills are beggining to develop for him). He doesnt get lost on defense or offense nearly as much as you seem to suggest, and while he does make some carelss mistakes at times you can see the though behind it and as his skills catch up to his athleticsim those mistake will delcine.

And please dont tell me i'm confusing his real life IQ with his basketabll IQ, I'm not. You are making that insinuation so that you can detract from my argment without actually making an argument yourself.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: td450 on February 21, 2018, 09:40:41 AM
Jaylen is 21 and is posting pretty efficient offensive numbers for a top 5 team, and he is depended on to max out on defense.

So far, the team has asked him to play disciplined offense. He only takes someone off the bounce a few times a game. Until he got to the NBA, he never really had anyone meet him at the rim that he couldn't overpower. He never developed that extra layer of skills you need to deal with NBA level help defense. You can already see him starting to figure it out. He just needs more reps driving to the rim.

Jaylen and Jayson both have some of the same problems taking someone off the dribble. They need to slow down, change the angle on their second step, and develop a reliable set of shots in the 5-10 foot range when they can't get all the way. Tatum needs to work on finishing with his left hand. My guess is that by the end of next year, they will both be impossible to stop.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: Moranis on February 21, 2018, 10:14:41 AM
I totally see the Jeff Green comparisons, not personality wise, but game wise.  Statistically on a per minute basis they are very close in both the 1st year and 2nd year.  I mean it is pretty scary how similar their production actually is.  That isn't to say that Brown will end up with a Green like career, but you can't just totally discount it either given they have nearly identical 1st and 2nd seasons. 
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: jambr380 on February 21, 2018, 11:26:31 AM
I totally see the Jeff Green comparisons, not personality wise, but game wise.  Statistically on a per minute basis they are very close in both the 1st year and 2nd year.  I mean it is pretty scary how similar their production actually is.  That isn't to say that Brown will end up with a Green like career, but you can't just totally discount it either given they have nearly identical 1st and 2nd seasons.

2007-08 Seattle - 20-62
2008-09 OKC - 23-59

2016-17 Boston - 53-29
2017-18 Boston (so far) 40-19

One has to assume that if Jaylen Brown was playing on ~20 win teams, he would have a lot more leeway and have a more expansive role. They may look to have a similar level of production, but Brown is being held accountable for every decision he makes and is a much better defensive player than Jeff Green ever was.

And this is coming from somebody who has continually defended Jeff Green. The guy has gotten way more flack than he ever deserved - it would be amazing to have him coming off the bench for our team this year! Even still, Brown has a lot more potential and the way he is being coached should really benefit him throughout the rest of his career.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: Roy H. on February 21, 2018, 11:36:23 AM
I totally see the Jeff Green comparisons, not personality wise, but game wise.  Statistically on a per minute basis they are very close in both the 1st year and 2nd year.  I mean it is pretty scary how similar their production actually is.  That isn't to say that Brown will end up with a Green like career, but you can't just totally discount it either given they have nearly identical 1st and 2nd seasons.

2007-08 Seattle - 20-62
2008-09 OKC - 23-59

2016-17 Boston - 53-29
2017-18 Boston (so far) 40-19

One has to assume that if Jaylen Brown was playing on ~20 win teams, he would have a lot more leeway and have a more expansive role. They may look to have a similar level of production, but Brown is being held accountable for every decision he makes and is a much better defensive player than Jeff Green ever was.

And this is coming from somebody who has continually defended Jeff Green. The guy has gotten way more flack than he ever deserved - it would be amazing to have him coming off the bench for our team this year! Even still, Brown has a lot more potential and the way he is being coached should really benefit him throughout the rest of his career.

Not only that, but Jaylen is younger and has made a bigger sophomore leap. Who expected the kid to be an above-average starter and excellent defender this year?
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: Boris Badenov on February 21, 2018, 11:55:16 AM
I totally see the Jeff Green comparisons, not personality wise, but game wise.  Statistically on a per minute basis they are very close in both the 1st year and 2nd year.  I mean it is pretty scary how similar their production actually is.  That isn't to say that Brown will end up with a Green like career, but you can't just totally discount it either given they have nearly identical 1st and 2nd seasons.

The really weird thing about Green is that he never turned into a high-level shooter from 3.

His college and early NBA numbers were promising, and he’s a good FT shooter.

If he had been a 40% shooter from deep his whole career would have been different.

And on the other hand Jaylen has many more warning signs in terms of college shooting and FTs and so far he’s proving to be a very capable (and improving) shooter from that area.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: keevsnick on February 21, 2018, 12:51:51 PM
I totally see the Jeff Green comparisons, not personality wise, but game wise.  Statistically on a per minute basis they are very close in both the 1st year and 2nd year.  I mean it is pretty scary how similar their production actually is.  That isn't to say that Brown will end up with a Green like career, but you can't just totally discount it either given they have nearly identical 1st and 2nd seasons.

Yes, the two are pretty simlar rthorugh their first two years. But the entire knock on Jeff Green was that he never got any better, that he wasted his physical gifts and could have been more than he was. You say that we cant discount Jayleen Brown having a Jeff green like career because of his statistsicall comaprison to Jeff Green, but that ignores so many other variables including the fact he's already better from 3 then Jeff Green. He plays on a better team which likely supresses his raw numbers, he is a year younger relative to Jeff Green, and again they are nowhere near the same attitude wise, Jaylen has already so massively imroved, and continues to improve. In alot of ways making a statistcial coaprison and saying Jaylen Brown could end up like player x is a coomplete waste of time because with young guys you just dont know what they will become, but since we are doing it compare Jaylen with Paul George year two. Very similar. So i guesss we can't rule out he becomes a top 10-15 player like George either. If Jeff green is his floor, and Paul George his ceiling i'm pretty happy abut it.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: Moranis on February 21, 2018, 01:05:48 PM
I totally see the Jeff Green comparisons, not personality wise, but game wise.  Statistically on a per minute basis they are very close in both the 1st year and 2nd year.  I mean it is pretty scary how similar their production actually is.  That isn't to say that Brown will end up with a Green like career, but you can't just totally discount it either given they have nearly identical 1st and 2nd seasons.

Yes, the two are pretty simlar rthorugh their first two years. But the entire knock on Jeff Green was that he never got any better, that he wasted his physical gifts and could have been more than he was. You say that we cant discount Jayleen Brown having a Jeff green like career because of his statistsicall comaprison to Jeff Green, but that ignores so many other variables including the fact he's already better from 3 then Jeff Green. He plays on a better team which likely supresses his raw numbers, he is a year younger relative to Jeff Green, and again they are nowhere near the same attitude wise, Jaylen has already so massively imroved, and continues to improve. In alot of ways making a statistcial coaprison and saying Jaylen Brown could end up like player x is a coomplete waste of time because with young guys you just dont know what they will become, but since we are doing it compare Jaylen with Paul George year two. Very similar. So i guesss we can't rule out he becomes a top 10-15 player like George either. If Jeff green is his floor, and Paul George his ceiling i'm pretty happy abut it.
Jeff Green's 2nd year in the league he shot 38.9% from 3.  Green's 2nd year he played 36.8 mpg and scored 16.5 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 2.0 apg, 1.0 spg, 0.4 bpg, 2.2 tpg, 2.6 fpg and shot 46.3% from 2, 38.9% from 3, and 78.8% from the line.

His advanced stats from that season: 53.6 TS%, 10.4 RB%, 9.1 AST%, 1.4 ST%, 0.8 BLK%, 12.6 TOV% with a 21.2% USG and a PER of 13.9.

Those were fairly significant improvements from the 1st to 2nd year, pretty much across the board for Green.

Here are Jaylen Brown's 2nd year advanced stats (since he plays less minutes).  54.7 TS% (50.9 2PT, 37.8 3PT, 58.8 FT), 9.3 RB%, 8.0 AST%, 1.6 STL%, 1.0 BLK%, 11.9 TOV% with a USG of 20.6 and a PER of 12.6.

Brown actually doesn't show much improvement in many of those categories from his 1st to 2nd year, which is much diferent then Green who took a pretty big efficiency jump from year 1 to year 2 in pretty much all of those categories (which again is unlike Brown). 

I think a lot of people misremember the jump Green took from year 1 to year 2 because Green then stayed pretty flat the rest of his career.  At his peak, Green was essentially the same player he was in his 2nd year, but Green absolutely took a pretty big leap from year 1 to year 2.  And yes, Green was older than Brown, but he was 22 his entire 2nd year, he wasn't 25. 
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: Roy H. on February 21, 2018, 01:23:12 PM
Quote
Here are Jaylen Brown's 2nd year advanced stats (since he plays less minutes).  54.7 TS% (50.9 2PT, 37.8 3PT, 58.8 FT), 9.3 RB%, 8.0 AST%, 1.6 STL%, 1.0 BLK%, 11.9 TOV% with a USG of 20.6 and a PER of 12.6.

Brown actually doesn't show much improvement in many of those categories from his 1st to 2nd year, which is much diferent then Green who took a pretty big efficiency jump from year 1 to year 2 in pretty much all of those categories (which again is unlike Brown). 

There’s a context that you’re ignoring, though. Jaylen went from getting 17 mpg to playing twice that many on a good playoff team.  Meanwhile, on both raw numbers and a per possession basis, he improved every single stat except blocks, despite playing against starters and expending energy as an elite defender.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: Donoghus on February 21, 2018, 01:48:00 PM
Quote
Here are Jaylen Brown's 2nd year advanced stats (since he plays less minutes).  54.7 TS% (50.9 2PT, 37.8 3PT, 58.8 FT), 9.3 RB%, 8.0 AST%, 1.6 STL%, 1.0 BLK%, 11.9 TOV% with a USG of 20.6 and a PER of 12.6.

Brown actually doesn't show much improvement in many of those categories from his 1st to 2nd year, which is much diferent then Green who took a pretty big efficiency jump from year 1 to year 2 in pretty much all of those categories (which again is unlike Brown). 

There’s a context that you’re ignoring, though. Jaylen went from getting 17 mpg to playing twice that many on a good playoff team.  Meanwhile, on both raw numbers and a per possession basis, he improved every single stat except blocks, despite playing against starters and expending energy as an elite defender.

Certainly different situations.    Jeff Green's team won 43 games COMBINED his first two years in the league while Jaylen played on a team that won 53 his rookie season and on pace to do even better this season.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: Moranis on February 21, 2018, 01:48:20 PM
Quote
Here are Jaylen Brown's 2nd year advanced stats (since he plays less minutes).  54.7 TS% (50.9 2PT, 37.8 3PT, 58.8 FT), 9.3 RB%, 8.0 AST%, 1.6 STL%, 1.0 BLK%, 11.9 TOV% with a USG of 20.6 and a PER of 12.6.

Brown actually doesn't show much improvement in many of those categories from his 1st to 2nd year, which is much diferent then Green who took a pretty big efficiency jump from year 1 to year 2 in pretty much all of those categories (which again is unlike Brown). 

There’s a context that you’re ignoring, though. Jaylen went from getting 17 mpg to playing twice that many on a good playoff team.  Meanwhile, on both raw numbers and a per possession basis, he improved every single stat except blocks, despite playing against starters and expending energy as an elite defender.
I didn't ignore that context at all. 

Per 36 Brown year 1
13.8 p, 5.9 r, 1.7 a, 0.9 s, 0.5 b, 1.8 t, 3.8 f - 20 of 78 games started

Per 36 Green year 1
13.4 p, 6.1 r, 1.9 a, 0.7 s, 0.8 b, 2.5 t, 3.2 f - 52 of 80 games started

Per 36 Brown year 2
16.0 p, 6.2 r, 1.8 a, 1.1 s, 0.4 b, 2.0 t, 3.3 f - started every game (54 thus far)

Per 36 Green year 2
16.2 p, 6.5 r, 1.9 a, 1.0 s, 0.4 b, 2.2 t, 2.5 f - started every game (78)


As I've been saying nearly identical stats.  They also have nearly identical roles on those teams (at least in year 2).  Sure, Boston was a better team than Seattle/Oklahoma City, but the similarities are uncanny from a role, production, etc. stand point. 

And don't get me wrong, I'm not suggesting Brown will level off like Green did, but Green wasn't the first or last person to not show much growth (I mean look at old friend KO for another guy that didn't show much growth in his game).  Look at Myles Turner from the draft before Brown.  Great 2nd year with nice growth from year 1 to year 2, but a major regression this year.  Maybe Turner doesn't turn it around and year 2 was his best year.  Then again, maybe Brown is like Jimmy Butler, Giannis Antetokounmpo, etc. that show tremendous growth every season. 

Obviously only time will tell on which way Brown ends up, but the comparison to Green thus far is pretty spot on given their actual roles and their actual on-court production (not personality wise, but production wise).   
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: Boris Badenov on February 21, 2018, 02:13:23 PM
I’m with Moranis.

First of all they were simila as he details.

Second, the comparison seems to be less than complimentary to some people but I think there’s something they are missing. Jeff Green after his second year was still a helluva prospect with All-Star potential. The issue is that he never advanced beyond that.

So saying “Jaylen is a bit like Jeff Green” is neither an insult nor a prediction that Jaylen at 25 will be Jeff Green at 25. In fact, I would say that Green was a bit of an outlier in how he stopped improving, so I both see the comparison at age 21/22 and am very optimistic about Jaylen.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: Roy H. on February 21, 2018, 02:13:47 PM
Quote
Here are Jaylen Brown's 2nd year advanced stats (since he plays less minutes).  54.7 TS% (50.9 2PT, 37.8 3PT, 58.8 FT), 9.3 RB%, 8.0 AST%, 1.6 STL%, 1.0 BLK%, 11.9 TOV% with a USG of 20.6 and a PER of 12.6.

Brown actually doesn't show much improvement in many of those categories from his 1st to 2nd year, which is much diferent then Green who took a pretty big efficiency jump from year 1 to year 2 in pretty much all of those categories (which again is unlike Brown). 

There’s a context that you’re ignoring, though. Jaylen went from getting 17 mpg to playing twice that many on a good playoff team.  Meanwhile, on both raw numbers and a per possession basis, he improved every single stat except blocks, despite playing against starters and expending energy as an elite defender.
I didn't ignore that context at all. 

Per 36 Brown year 1
13.8 p, 5.9 r, 1.7 a, 0.9 s, 0.5 b, 1.8 t, 3.8 f - 20 of 78 games started

Per 36 Green year 1
13.4 p, 6.1 r, 1.9 a, 0.7 s, 0.8 b, 2.5 t, 3.2 f - 52 of 80 games started

Per 36 Brown year 2
16.0 p, 6.2 r, 1.8 a, 1.1 s, 0.4 b, 2.0 t, 3.3 f - started every game (54 thus far)

Per 36 Green year 2
16.2 p, 6.5 r, 1.9 a, 1.0 s, 0.4 b, 2.2 t, 2.5 f - started every game (78)


As I've been saying nearly identical stats.  They also have nearly identical roles on those teams (at least in year 2).  Sure, Boston was a better team than Seattle/Oklahoma City, but the similarities are uncanny from a role, production, etc. stand point. 

And don't get me wrong, I'm not suggesting Brown will level off like Green did, but Green wasn't the first or last person to not show much growth (I mean look at old friend KO for another guy that didn't show much growth in his game).  Look at Myles Turner from the draft before Brown.  Great 2nd year with nice growth from year 1 to year 2, but a major regression this year.  Maybe Turner doesn't turn it around and year 2 was his best year.  Then again, maybe Brown is like Jimmy Butler, Giannis Antetokounmpo, etc. that show tremendous growth every season. 

Obviously only time will tell on which way Brown ends up, but the comparison to Green thus far is pretty spot on given their actual roles and their actual on-court production (not personality wise, but production wise).

Per-36 doesn’t really get to the point, though. Progress isn’t linear; doubling minutes doesn’t double production.

What Jaylen did, going from a 17 mpg role player to an above-average starter and excellent defender, is a huge leap. 
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: nickagneta on February 21, 2018, 02:17:05 PM
Quote
Here are Jaylen Brown's 2nd year advanced stats (since he plays less minutes).  54.7 TS% (50.9 2PT, 37.8 3PT, 58.8 FT), 9.3 RB%, 8.0 AST%, 1.6 STL%, 1.0 BLK%, 11.9 TOV% with a USG of 20.6 and a PER of 12.6.

Brown actually doesn't show much improvement in many of those categories from his 1st to 2nd year, which is much diferent then Green who took a pretty big efficiency jump from year 1 to year 2 in pretty much all of those categories (which again is unlike Brown). 

There’s a context that you’re ignoring, though. Jaylen went from getting 17 mpg to playing twice that many on a good playoff team.  Meanwhile, on both raw numbers and a per possession basis, he improved every single stat except blocks, despite playing against starters and expending energy as an elite defender.
I didn't ignore that context at all. 

Per 36 Brown year 1
13.8 p, 5.9 r, 1.7 a, 0.9 s, 0.5 b, 1.8 t, 3.8 f - 20 of 78 games started

Per 36 Green year 1
13.4 p, 6.1 r, 1.9 a, 0.7 s, 0.8 b, 2.5 t, 3.2 f - 52 of 80 games started

Per 36 Brown year 2
16.0 p, 6.2 r, 1.8 a, 1.1 s, 0.4 b, 2.0 t, 3.3 f - started every game (54 thus far)

Per 36 Green year 2
16.2 p, 6.5 r, 1.9 a, 1.0 s, 0.4 b, 2.2 t, 2.5 f - started every game (78)


As I've been saying nearly identical stats.  They also have nearly identical roles on those teams (at least in year 2).  Sure, Boston was a better team than Seattle/Oklahoma City, but the similarities are uncanny from a role, production, etc. stand point. 

And don't get me wrong, I'm not suggesting Brown will level off like Green did, but Green wasn't the first or last person to not show much growth (I mean look at old friend KO for another guy that didn't show much growth in his game).  Look at Myles Turner from the draft before Brown.  Great 2nd year with nice growth from year 1 to year 2, but a major regression this year.  Maybe Turner doesn't turn it around and year 2 was his best year.  Then again, maybe Brown is like Jimmy Butler, Giannis Antetokounmpo, etc. that show tremendous growth every season. 

Obviously only time will tell on which way Brown ends up, but the comparison to Green thus far is pretty spot on given their actual roles and their actual on-court production (not personality wise, but production wise).
If you compare it by age and not years in the league the numbers tell a different story.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: Moranis on February 21, 2018, 02:45:44 PM
Quote
Here are Jaylen Brown's 2nd year advanced stats (since he plays less minutes).  54.7 TS% (50.9 2PT, 37.8 3PT, 58.8 FT), 9.3 RB%, 8.0 AST%, 1.6 STL%, 1.0 BLK%, 11.9 TOV% with a USG of 20.6 and a PER of 12.6.

Brown actually doesn't show much improvement in many of those categories from his 1st to 2nd year, which is much diferent then Green who took a pretty big efficiency jump from year 1 to year 2 in pretty much all of those categories (which again is unlike Brown). 

There’s a context that you’re ignoring, though. Jaylen went from getting 17 mpg to playing twice that many on a good playoff team.  Meanwhile, on both raw numbers and a per possession basis, he improved every single stat except blocks, despite playing against starters and expending energy as an elite defender.
I didn't ignore that context at all. 

Per 36 Brown year 1
13.8 p, 5.9 r, 1.7 a, 0.9 s, 0.5 b, 1.8 t, 3.8 f - 20 of 78 games started

Per 36 Green year 1
13.4 p, 6.1 r, 1.9 a, 0.7 s, 0.8 b, 2.5 t, 3.2 f - 52 of 80 games started

Per 36 Brown year 2
16.0 p, 6.2 r, 1.8 a, 1.1 s, 0.4 b, 2.0 t, 3.3 f - started every game (54 thus far)

Per 36 Green year 2
16.2 p, 6.5 r, 1.9 a, 1.0 s, 0.4 b, 2.2 t, 2.5 f - started every game (78)


As I've been saying nearly identical stats.  They also have nearly identical roles on those teams (at least in year 2).  Sure, Boston was a better team than Seattle/Oklahoma City, but the similarities are uncanny from a role, production, etc. stand point. 

And don't get me wrong, I'm not suggesting Brown will level off like Green did, but Green wasn't the first or last person to not show much growth (I mean look at old friend KO for another guy that didn't show much growth in his game).  Look at Myles Turner from the draft before Brown.  Great 2nd year with nice growth from year 1 to year 2, but a major regression this year.  Maybe Turner doesn't turn it around and year 2 was his best year.  Then again, maybe Brown is like Jimmy Butler, Giannis Antetokounmpo, etc. that show tremendous growth every season. 

Obviously only time will tell on which way Brown ends up, but the comparison to Green thus far is pretty spot on given their actual roles and their actual on-court production (not personality wise, but production wise).

Per-36 doesn’t really get to the point, though. Progress isn’t linear; doubling minutes doesn’t double production.

What Jaylen did, going from a 17 mpg role player to an above-average starter and excellent defender, is a huge leap.
And Jeff Green made the same kind of leap.  Their per minute production in year 1 was almost identical.  Their per minute production in year 2 in basically exactly the same role was almost identical.  Green played more as a rookie than Brown, in large part because Green earned his starting spot faster, but Green still saw a pretty nice jump in minutes in his second year, not the 14.4 minutes Brown jumped, but still a solid 8.6 minutes per game increase.  Their BPM, VORP, etc. are also pretty close (Green a bit better offensively, Brown a bit better defensively). 

You guys can't see the similarities because of what Green ended up becoming, not what he was a 22 year old 2nd year player. 



How about this player

20 year old rookie year 32 games played (3 starts) 11.7 mpg, 5.2 p, 1.3 r, 0.6 a, 0.4 s with a TS% of 54.1

21 year old 2nd year 81 games (26 starts) 22.0 mpg, 10.4 p, 2.6 r, 1.0 a, 0.5 s with a TS% of 52.1

Pretty consistent production with an increased role.  Making the progression you would expect.  Yet for year 3 he switches teams, ends up on 2 teams, plays just 30 games, shoots horribly.  Year 4 yet another team 38 games (12 starts), shoots even worse, career low in minutes.  out of the league for 2 years before coming back and is now a quality role player for a contender. 

I bring up Gerald Green because who knows what will happen in the future.  Brown could be Jimmy Butler or the Greek Freak.  Or he could be Jeff Green or Kelly Olynyk.  Or he could be Myles Turner or Gerald Green.  Or any player in between those, but it certainly doesn't mean the comparison to Jeff Green is off base when you would be hard pressed to find two players with on court production and team role that is as closely mirrored as those two. 
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: Boris Badenov on February 21, 2018, 03:39:04 PM
Per-36 doesn’t really get to the point, though. Progress isn’t linear; doubling minutes doesn’t double production.

What Jaylen did, going from a 17 mpg role player to an above-average starter and excellent defender, is a huge leap.

Green was a solid starter in his second year too, though. And by his 3rd year he was the starting PF and played the 2nd most minutes on a 50-win team.

I feel like you and Nick and others are running away from the Green comparison based on the player he became, not the one he was at the time.

As you may recall, when we traded for him, it was nip and tuck as to whether it would be Harden or Green in the deal. Both were viewed as highly promising players.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: Roy H. on February 21, 2018, 04:39:16 PM
Per-36 doesn’t really get to the point, though. Progress isn’t linear; doubling minutes doesn’t double production.

What Jaylen did, going from a 17 mpg role player to an above-average starter and excellent defender, is a huge leap.

Green was a solid starter in his second year too, though. And by his 3rd year he was the starting PF and played the 2nd most minutes on a 50-win team.

I feel like you and Nick and others are running away from the Green comparison based on the player he became, not the one he was at the time.

As you may recall, when we traded for him, it was nip and tuck as to whether it would be Harden or Green in the deal. Both were viewed as highly promising players.

That last paragraph just isn’t true. OKC was never giving up Harden; Green had fallen out of favor in OKC by that time, and was hardly promising (except perhaps to Celtics fans, who love shiny new trade acquisitions).

The comparison with second year Jeff Green is flawed because it’s comparing two guys with different roles who came into the league at different ages. Using “per minute” numbers to make a comparison is almost always a stretch, and defense is being ignored all together in this comparison.  Also, of course, the original comparison was to Jeff Green (not second year Jeff Green) citing his inconsistency as the basis of the comparison.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: Moranis on February 21, 2018, 04:46:21 PM
Per-36 doesn’t really get to the point, though. Progress isn’t linear; doubling minutes doesn’t double production.

What Jaylen did, going from a 17 mpg role player to an above-average starter and excellent defender, is a huge leap.

Green was a solid starter in his second year too, though. And by his 3rd year he was the starting PF and played the 2nd most minutes on a 50-win team.

I feel like you and Nick and others are running away from the Green comparison based on the player he became, not the one he was at the time.

As you may recall, when we traded for him, it was nip and tuck as to whether it would be Harden or Green in the deal. Both were viewed as highly promising players.

That last paragraph just isn’t true. OKC was never giving up Harden; Green had fallen out of favor in OKC by that time, and was hardly promising (except perhaps to Celtics fans, who love shiny new trade acquisitions).

The comparison with second year Jeff Green is flawed because it’s comparing two guys with different roles who came into the league at different ages. Using “per minute” numbers to make a comparison is almost always a stretch, and defense is being ignored all together in this comparison.
fallen out of favor is a bit much.  Green was the starting PF playing 37 mpg when he was traded to Boston.  He was however no where near the prospect Harden was, which is why Boston asked for Harden and OKC said no. 

Jaylen Brown is playing 32 mpg and Jeff Green played 37 mpg in his 2nd year.  They were both starting and were both basically the 3rd best player on their team in their 2nd year.  You absolutely can compare their per minute production in those scenarios.  In fact, that is when per minute comparisons are at their best.  Brown is probably a better defender than Green was, but Green was never a sieve defensively, even with him playing out of position at PF in OKC, he was still a competent defender.  You are significantly overplaying Brown's defensive advantage over Green just to try to come up with reasons why the comparison doesn't work, and it is just silly.  They quite simply are comparable players in year 2. 
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: keevsnick on February 21, 2018, 04:54:34 PM
Ultimately, comparisons aside, what it comes down too is how much Jaylen improves from here. He could take another coup of leaps and end up a all nba level player or he could level off and be a good starter for a long time. We just don't know. Saying he looks like Jeff Green through year 2, whether correct or not, isn't predictive of future performance.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: PhoSita on February 21, 2018, 05:06:59 PM
Jaylen Brown as a rookie had a higher TS% than Jeff Green had at any time while he was playing for OKC.  His TS% is even higher in his second season.

He's also shooting a much higher percentage on threes this year **than Jeff Green has for the vast majority of his career**, and he's doing so on significantly more attempts per game than Green's career average of 2.9 3PA.

Furthermore Jeff Green hasn't had a significantly positive DPM since 2010, whereas Jaylen is at +0.8 in his second season which is pretty good.


All signs point to Jaylen being a solid defender and a good shooter, neither of which have ever been good descriptors for Jeff Green over any significant sample of games.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: Roy H. on February 21, 2018, 05:10:20 PM
Quote
Brown is probably a better defender than Green was, but Green was never a sieve defensively, even with him playing out of position at PF in OKC, he was still a competent defender.  You are significantly overplaying Brown's defensive advantage over Green just to try to come up with reasons why the comparison doesn't work, and it is just silly

Respectfully, you’re making things up. Green was seen as a bad defender at PF, a mediocre one at SF. Green holds opponents to the lowest FG% of any starter in the NBA, and the 4th best FG% differential.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: Boris Badenov on February 21, 2018, 06:00:38 PM
Jaylen Brown as a rookie had a higher TS% than Jeff Green had at any time while he was playing for OKC.  His TS% is even higher in his second season.

He's also shooting a much higher percentage on threes this year than Jeff Green ever has for a full season.

Furthermore Jeff Green hasn't had a significantly positive DPM since 2010, whereas Jaylen is at +0.8 in his second season which is pretty good.

All signs point to Jaylen being a solid defender and a good shooter, neither of which have ever been good descriptors for Jeff Green over any significant sample of games.

Brown's second year TS% is 54.7%. Green's was 53.6%

Brown's shooting 37.8% this year from 3. In his second year, Jeff Green shot 38.9%.

I don't think anyone would dispute Brown is a better defender, but as a 2nd year player Green was highly regarded.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: PhoSita on February 21, 2018, 07:20:58 PM
Jaylen Brown as a rookie had a higher TS% than Jeff Green had at any time while he was playing for OKC.  His TS% is even higher in his second season.

He's also shooting a much higher percentage on threes this year than Jeff Green ever has for a full season.

Furthermore Jeff Green hasn't had a significantly positive DPM since 2010, whereas Jaylen is at +0.8 in his second season which is pretty good.

All signs point to Jaylen being a solid defender and a good shooter, neither of which have ever been good descriptors for Jeff Green over any significant sample of games.

Brown's second year TS% is 54.7%. Green's was 53.6%

Brown's shooting 37.8% this year from 3. In his second year, Jeff Green shot 38.9%.

I don't think anyone would dispute Brown is a better defender, but as a 2nd year player Green was highly regarded.

You're right, I misread the shooting stats re: 3P%.

Green was highly regarded as a second year player, sure, but he was also 22 already.

Even setting that caveat aside, I think we can agree if Jaylen has hit his peak in his second season, like Green seemed to do, we will all have a problem.

Green showed promise and then never really improved.  Considering how far Jaylen has come between Year 1 and Year 2, I don't know why anybody would have a great deal of skepticism about him continuing to improve as a two way contributor.


I say this as a person who was pretty skeptical of the decision to draft Jaylen at the time.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: mmmmm on February 21, 2018, 07:23:12 PM
I totally see the Jeff Green comparisons, not personality wise, but game wise.  Statistically on a per minute basis they are very close in both the 1st year and 2nd year.  I mean it is pretty scary how similar their production actually is.  That isn't to say that Brown will end up with a Green like career, but you can't just totally discount it either given they have nearly identical 1st and 2nd seasons.

Yes, the two are pretty simlar rthorugh their first two years. But the entire knock on Jeff Green was that he never got any better, that he wasted his physical gifts and could have been more than he was. You say that we cant discount Jayleen Brown having a Jeff green like career because of his statistsicall comaprison to Jeff Green, but that ignores so many other variables including the fact he's already better from 3 then Jeff Green. He plays on a better team which likely supresses his raw numbers, he is a year younger relative to Jeff Green, and again they are nowhere near the same attitude wise, Jaylen has already so massively imroved, and continues to improve. In alot of ways making a statistcial coaprison and saying Jaylen Brown could end up like player x is a coomplete waste of time because with young guys you just dont know what they will become, but since we are doing it compare Jaylen with Paul George year two. Very similar. So i guesss we can't rule out he becomes a top 10-15 player like George either. If Jeff green is his floor, and Paul George his ceiling i'm pretty happy abut it.
Jeff Green's 2nd year in the league he shot 38.9% from 3.  Green's 2nd year he played 36.8 mpg and scored 16.5 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 2.0 apg, 1.0 spg, 0.4 bpg, 2.2 tpg, 2.6 fpg and shot 46.3% from 2, 38.9% from 3, and 78.8% from the line.

His advanced stats from that season: 53.6 TS%, 10.4 RB%, 9.1 AST%, 1.4 ST%, 0.8 BLK%, 12.6 TOV% with a 21.2% USG and a PER of 13.9.

Those were fairly significant improvements from the 1st to 2nd year, pretty much across the board for Green.

Here are Jaylen Brown's 2nd year advanced stats (since he plays less minutes).  54.7 TS% (50.9 2PT, 37.8 3PT, 58.8 FT), 9.3 RB%, 8.0 AST%, 1.6 STL%, 1.0 BLK%, 11.9 TOV% with a USG of 20.6 and a PER of 12.6.

Brown actually doesn't show much improvement in many of those categories from his 1st to 2nd year, which is much diferent then Green who took a pretty big efficiency jump from year 1 to year 2 in pretty much all of those categories (which again is unlike Brown). 

I think a lot of people misremember the jump Green took from year 1 to year 2 because Green then stayed pretty flat the rest of his career.  At his peak, Green was essentially the same player he was in his 2nd year, but Green absolutely took a pretty big leap from year 1 to year 2.  And yes, Green was older than Brown, but he was 22 his entire 2nd year, he wasn't 25.

a) Jeff Green was more than a full year older in each of his corresponding NBA seasons than Jaylen Brown.  He had played three full seasons totally 3388 minutes at Georgetown (plus more tournament games) compared to Jaylen playing just one season at Cal for a total of 939 minutes.

b) In addition to having played an additional 2400+ college minutes, Green played a whopping 2253 minutes his rookie season (and eventually another 2873 minutes by the end of his 2nd season).  By comparison, Brown played just 1556 minutes total (including playoffs) his rookie year and is on pace for perhaps about 2500 this season.

c) Green played SF & PF for a crappy OKC team.   Brown has been playing SF & SG for a very competitive Celtics team.

They are at very different age and experiential points in their careers.

This is ultimately a lazy comparison.  One can plug in Jaylen's first and second year numbers and look for players with similar numbers and you get over a 100 matches, ranging from Keith Bogans to Ryan Gomes to Kawhi Leonard.

Is it possible that Jaylen will plateau as a similar player to Jeff Green?  Certainly.

Is it possible that he grows to a ceiling of Kawhi Leonard?  Certainly.

Both are possible.  Neither statement informs us of very much.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: Boris Badenov on February 21, 2018, 07:47:04 PM
Jaylen Brown as a rookie had a higher TS% than Jeff Green had at any time while he was playing for OKC.  His TS% is even higher in his second season.

He's also shooting a much higher percentage on threes this year than Jeff Green ever has for a full season.

Furthermore Jeff Green hasn't had a significantly positive DPM since 2010, whereas Jaylen is at +0.8 in his second season which is pretty good.

All signs point to Jaylen being a solid defender and a good shooter, neither of which have ever been good descriptors for Jeff Green over any significant sample of games.

Brown's second year TS% is 54.7%. Green's was 53.6%

Brown's shooting 37.8% this year from 3. In his second year, Jeff Green shot 38.9%.

I don't think anyone would dispute Brown is a better defender, but as a 2nd year player Green was highly regarded.

You're right, I misread the shooting stats re: 3P%.

Green was highly regarded as a second year player, sure, but he was also 22 already.

Even setting that caveat aside, I think we can agree if Jaylen has hit his peak in his second season, like Green seemed to do, we will all have a problem.

Green showed promise and then never really improved.  Considering how far Jaylen has come between Year 1 and Year 2, I don't know why anybody would have a great deal of skepticism about him continuing to improve as a two way contributor.

I say this as a person who was pretty skeptical of the decision to draft Jaylen at the time.

Agree on almost all counts.

As I said above, there's lots of reason for optimism on Jaylen. It's really Green who was the surprising (negative) outlier. With his second-year numbers, you would have had every reason to think he would become a star. And plenty of reasonable people did.

(Roy H. mentioned the over-optimism around these parts, and he's right, but that was different: Green was 26 and had clearly plateaued, and yet people were somehow thinking he could become a "top 5 SF." I still can't read those words without a shudder.)
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: Moranis on February 22, 2018, 08:47:27 AM
I totally see the Jeff Green comparisons, not personality wise, but game wise.  Statistically on a per minute basis they are very close in both the 1st year and 2nd year.  I mean it is pretty scary how similar their production actually is.  That isn't to say that Brown will end up with a Green like career, but you can't just totally discount it either given they have nearly identical 1st and 2nd seasons.

Yes, the two are pretty simlar rthorugh their first two years. But the entire knock on Jeff Green was that he never got any better, that he wasted his physical gifts and could have been more than he was. You say that we cant discount Jayleen Brown having a Jeff green like career because of his statistsicall comaprison to Jeff Green, but that ignores so many other variables including the fact he's already better from 3 then Jeff Green. He plays on a better team which likely supresses his raw numbers, he is a year younger relative to Jeff Green, and again they are nowhere near the same attitude wise, Jaylen has already so massively imroved, and continues to improve. In alot of ways making a statistcial coaprison and saying Jaylen Brown could end up like player x is a coomplete waste of time because with young guys you just dont know what they will become, but since we are doing it compare Jaylen with Paul George year two. Very similar. So i guesss we can't rule out he becomes a top 10-15 player like George either. If Jeff green is his floor, and Paul George his ceiling i'm pretty happy abut it.
Jeff Green's 2nd year in the league he shot 38.9% from 3.  Green's 2nd year he played 36.8 mpg and scored 16.5 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 2.0 apg, 1.0 spg, 0.4 bpg, 2.2 tpg, 2.6 fpg and shot 46.3% from 2, 38.9% from 3, and 78.8% from the line.

His advanced stats from that season: 53.6 TS%, 10.4 RB%, 9.1 AST%, 1.4 ST%, 0.8 BLK%, 12.6 TOV% with a 21.2% USG and a PER of 13.9.

Those were fairly significant improvements from the 1st to 2nd year, pretty much across the board for Green.

Here are Jaylen Brown's 2nd year advanced stats (since he plays less minutes).  54.7 TS% (50.9 2PT, 37.8 3PT, 58.8 FT), 9.3 RB%, 8.0 AST%, 1.6 STL%, 1.0 BLK%, 11.9 TOV% with a USG of 20.6 and a PER of 12.6.

Brown actually doesn't show much improvement in many of those categories from his 1st to 2nd year, which is much diferent then Green who took a pretty big efficiency jump from year 1 to year 2 in pretty much all of those categories (which again is unlike Brown). 

I think a lot of people misremember the jump Green took from year 1 to year 2 because Green then stayed pretty flat the rest of his career.  At his peak, Green was essentially the same player he was in his 2nd year, but Green absolutely took a pretty big leap from year 1 to year 2.  And yes, Green was older than Brown, but he was 22 his entire 2nd year, he wasn't 25.

a) Jeff Green was more than a full year older in each of his corresponding NBA seasons than Jaylen Brown.  He had played three full seasons totally 3388 minutes at Georgetown (plus more tournament games) compared to Jaylen playing just one season at Cal for a total of 939 minutes.

b) In addition to having played an additional 2400+ college minutes, Green played a whopping 2253 minutes his rookie season (and eventually another 2873 minutes by the end of his 2nd season).  By comparison, Brown played just 1556 minutes total (including playoffs) his rookie year and is on pace for perhaps about 2500 this season.

c) Green played SF & PF for a crappy OKC team.   Brown has been playing SF & SG for a very competitive Celtics team.

They are at very different age and experiential points in their careers.

This is ultimately a lazy comparison.  One can plug in Jaylen's first and second year numbers and look for players with similar numbers and you get over a 100 matches, ranging from Keith Bogans to Ryan Gomes to Kawhi Leonard.

Is it possible that Jaylen will plateau as a similar player to Jeff Green?  Certainly.

Is it possible that he grows to a ceiling of Kawhi Leonard?  Certainly.

Both are possible.  Neither statement informs us of very much.
I've also mentioned plenty of other players that took a jump from year 1 to year 2, but regressed (including some that are were as raw or rawer than Brown).  Or that come in and are pretty consistent across the board. 

And there really aren't that many players that are comparable in both year 1 and year 2 in stats, rates, and team roles with Jaylen Brown like Jeff Green is.   
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: Snakehead on February 22, 2018, 11:15:52 AM
I actually think the comparison right now is very apt with how Jaylen can fade in and out of games and in games.  It's his second year though so that's fine enough.

Jeff Green is one of the best finishers in the NBA when he wants to be and can be a real top level talent.  Just zero consistency.  It's not really an insult to a second year player.  If Jaylen gets more consistent (which I think he will) he will rise above that.

 I would say he's already better on defense than Green ever has been as well.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: Snakehead on February 22, 2018, 11:18:59 AM
Jaylen Brown as a rookie had a higher TS% than Jeff Green had at any time while he was playing for OKC.  His TS% is even higher in his second season.

He's also shooting a much higher percentage on threes this year than Jeff Green ever has for a full season.

Furthermore Jeff Green hasn't had a significantly positive DPM since 2010, whereas Jaylen is at +0.8 in his second season which is pretty good.

All signs point to Jaylen being a solid defender and a good shooter, neither of which have ever been good descriptors for Jeff Green over any significant sample of games.

Brown's second year TS% is 54.7%. Green's was 53.6%

Brown's shooting 37.8% this year from 3. In his second year, Jeff Green shot 38.9%.

I don't think anyone would dispute Brown is a better defender, but as a 2nd year player Green was highly regarded.

You're right, I misread the shooting stats re: 3P%.

Green was highly regarded as a second year player, sure, but he was also 22 already.

Even setting that caveat aside, I think we can agree if Jaylen has hit his peak in his second season, like Green seemed to do, we will all have a problem.

Green showed promise and then never really improved.

Green just never was consistent in making an impact.  Even on the Cavs right now you will see him have moments of clarity where he goes to the rim like an All NBA player but then he fades out.  Mentality is a gigantic part of NBA basketball, to the point that it's the difference between a lot of guys even making the league or not.  Some guys are not consistent at all and it's their mentality.

I don't think Jaylen has the same vibes as Jeff Green and he's younger and in his second year.  He does have the inconsistency but so does almost every second year player.

I will say that Jaylen has work to do to become an All Star type and it's not a given.  Tatum either.  Celtics fans have gone overboard with that all year.  These guys are not guaranteed stars at all.  And I'm high on both.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: PhoSita on February 22, 2018, 11:44:30 AM

And there really aren't that many players that are comparable in both year 1 and year 2 in stats, rates, and team roles with Jaylen Brown like Jeff Green is.   

Honestly, if you look at the numbers, guys like Eric Gordon, Kawhi Leonard, Jamal Murray, Gary Harris, Ben McLemore, Kevin Martin are all much more apt comparisons to Jaylen's production in Year 2 than Jeff Green.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: keevsnick on February 22, 2018, 12:52:53 PM
I totally see the Jeff Green comparisons, not personality wise, but game wise.  Statistically on a per minute basis they are very close in both the 1st year and 2nd year.  I mean it is pretty scary how similar their production actually is.  That isn't to say that Brown will end up with a Green like career, but you can't just totally discount it either given they have nearly identical 1st and 2nd seasons.

Yes, the two are pretty simlar rthorugh their first two years. But the entire knock on Jeff Green was that he never got any better, that he wasted his physical gifts and could have been more than he was. You say that we cant discount Jayleen Brown having a Jeff green like career because of his statistsicall comaprison to Jeff Green, but that ignores so many other variables including the fact he's already better from 3 then Jeff Green. He plays on a better team which likely supresses his raw numbers, he is a year younger relative to Jeff Green, and again they are nowhere near the same attitude wise, Jaylen has already so massively imroved, and continues to improve. In alot of ways making a statistcial coaprison and saying Jaylen Brown could end up like player x is a coomplete waste of time because with young guys you just dont know what they will become, but since we are doing it compare Jaylen with Paul George year two. Very similar. So i guesss we can't rule out he becomes a top 10-15 player like George either. If Jeff green is his floor, and Paul George his ceiling i'm pretty happy abut it.
Jeff Green's 2nd year in the league he shot 38.9% from 3.  Green's 2nd year he played 36.8 mpg and scored 16.5 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 2.0 apg, 1.0 spg, 0.4 bpg, 2.2 tpg, 2.6 fpg and shot 46.3% from 2, 38.9% from 3, and 78.8% from the line.

His advanced stats from that season: 53.6 TS%, 10.4 RB%, 9.1 AST%, 1.4 ST%, 0.8 BLK%, 12.6 TOV% with a 21.2% USG and a PER of 13.9.

Those were fairly significant improvements from the 1st to 2nd year, pretty much across the board for Green.

Here are Jaylen Brown's 2nd year advanced stats (since he plays less minutes).  54.7 TS% (50.9 2PT, 37.8 3PT, 58.8 FT), 9.3 RB%, 8.0 AST%, 1.6 STL%, 1.0 BLK%, 11.9 TOV% with a USG of 20.6 and a PER of 12.6.

Brown actually doesn't show much improvement in many of those categories from his 1st to 2nd year, which is much diferent then Green who took a pretty big efficiency jump from year 1 to year 2 in pretty much all of those categories (which again is unlike Brown). 

I think a lot of people misremember the jump Green took from year 1 to year 2 because Green then stayed pretty flat the rest of his career.  At his peak, Green was essentially the same player he was in his 2nd year, but Green absolutely took a pretty big leap from year 1 to year 2.  And yes, Green was older than Brown, but he was 22 his entire 2nd year, he wasn't 25.

a) Jeff Green was more than a full year older in each of his corresponding NBA seasons than Jaylen Brown.  He had played three full seasons totally 3388 minutes at Georgetown (plus more tournament games) compared to Jaylen playing just one season at Cal for a total of 939 minutes.

b) In addition to having played an additional 2400+ college minutes, Green played a whopping 2253 minutes his rookie season (and eventually another 2873 minutes by the end of his 2nd season).  By comparison, Brown played just 1556 minutes total (including playoffs) his rookie year and is on pace for perhaps about 2500 this season.

c) Green played SF & PF for a crappy OKC team.   Brown has been playing SF & SG for a very competitive Celtics team.

They are at very different age and experiential points in their careers.

This is ultimately a lazy comparison.  One can plug in Jaylen's first and second year numbers and look for players with similar numbers and you get over a 100 matches, ranging from Keith Bogans to Ryan Gomes to Kawhi Leonard.

Is it possible that Jaylen will plateau as a similar player to Jeff Green?  Certainly.

Is it possible that he grows to a ceiling of Kawhi Leonard?  Certainly.

Both are possible.  Neither statement informs us of very much.
I've also mentioned plenty of other players that took a jump from year 1 to year 2, but regressed (including some that are were as raw or rawer than Brown).  Or that come in and are pretty consistent across the board. 

And there really aren't that many players that are comparable in both year 1 and year 2 in stats, rates, and team roles with Jaylen Brown like Jeff Green is.   

Okay so if we can name players that got better, players that got worse, players that stayed the same and everything in between what does that tell us about the predictive power of these numbers. They are useless. You could say you are worried about Jaylen becoming Jeff Green, but if I said I think he'll be Kawhi Leonard I would have as much evidence on my side as u do. Hell probably be somewhere in between.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: Moranis on February 22, 2018, 12:52:55 PM

And there really aren't that many players that are comparable in both year 1 and year 2 in stats, rates, and team roles with Jaylen Brown like Jeff Green is.   

Honestly, if you look at the numbers, guys like Eric Gordon, Kawhi Leonard, Jamal Murray, Gary Harris, Ben McLemore, Kevin Martin are all much more apt comparisons to Jaylen's production in Year 2 than Jeff Green.
we are talking both year 1 and year 2 though.

Here is Brown year 2 totals:
31.6 mpg , 14 p, 5.4 r, 1.6 a, 1.0 s, 0.4 b, 1.7 t, 2.9 f - 50.9 2PT, 37.8 3PT, 58.8 FT

Now here are those guys and Jeff Green
31.2 m, 11.9 p, 6.0 r, 1.6 a, 1.7 s, 0.6 b, 1.1 t, 1.7 f - 55.4, 37.4, 82.5

36.0 m, 16.9 p, 2.6 r, 3.0 a, 1.1 s, 0.2 b, 2.3 t, 1.5 f - 50.3, 37.1, 74.2

36.8 m, 16.5 p, 6.7 r, 2.0 a, 1.0 s, 0.4 b, 2.2 t, 2.6 f - 46.3, 38.9, 78.8

32.1 m, 12.3 p, 2.9 r, 1.9 a, 1.3 s, 0.2 b, 1.3 t, 1.9 f - 54.3, 35.4, 82.0

26.6 m, 10.8 p, 3.6 r, 1.3 a, 0.8 s, 0.1 b, 1.1 t, 1.9 f - 53.4, 36.9, 84.7

32.6 m, 12.1 p, 2.9 r, 1.7 a, 0.9 s, 0.2 b, 1.7 t, 2.7 f - 50.7, 35.8, 81.3

30.4 m, 16.5 p, 3.5 r, 2.9 a, 0.9 s, 0.3 b, 2.1 t, 2.1 f - 51.3, 38.6, 91.4

Now you tell me, which stat line most closely resembles Jeff Green.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: mmmmm on February 22, 2018, 01:00:02 PM

And there really aren't that many players that are comparable in both year 1 and year 2 in stats, rates, and team roles with Jaylen Brown like Jeff Green is.   

Honestly, if you look at the numbers, guys like Eric Gordon, Kawhi Leonard, Jamal Murray, Gary Harris, Ben McLemore, Kevin Martin are all much more apt comparisons to Jaylen's production in Year 2 than Jeff Green.
we are talking both year 1 and year 2 though.

Here is Brown year 2 totals:
31.6 mpg , 14 p, 5.4 r, 1.6 a, 1.0 s, 0.4 b, 1.7 t, 2.9 f - 50.9 2PT, 37.8 3PT, 58.8 FT

Now here are those guys and Jeff Green
31.2 m, 11.9 p, 6.0 r, 1.6 a, 1.7 s, 0.6 b, 1.1 t, 1.7 f - 55.4, 37.4, 82.5

36.0 m, 16.9 p, 2.6 r, 3.0 a, 1.1 s, 0.2 b, 2.3 t, 1.5 f - 50.3, 37.1, 74.2

36.8 m, 16.5 p, 6.7 r, 2.0 a, 1.0 s, 0.4 b, 2.2 t, 2.6 f - 46.3, 38.9, 78.8

32.1 m, 12.3 p, 2.9 r, 1.9 a, 1.3 s, 0.2 b, 1.3 t, 1.9 f - 54.3, 35.4, 82.0

26.6 m, 10.8 p, 3.6 r, 1.3 a, 0.8 s, 0.1 b, 1.1 t, 1.9 f - 53.4, 36.9, 84.7

32.6 m, 12.1 p, 2.9 r, 1.7 a, 0.9 s, 0.2 b, 1.7 t, 2.7 f - 50.7, 35.8, 81.3

30.4 m, 16.5 p, 3.5 r, 2.9 a, 0.9 s, 0.3 b, 2.1 t, 2.1 f - 51.3, 38.6, 91.4

Now you tell me, which stat line most closely resembles Jeff Green.

Statistically, they are all well within any reasonable error margin.  Noise.  I.E., they are all the same person. 

Another way of saying that is that, if you used any one of those as the seed for, say, a 538 CARMELO style career projection, you'd find the error bars on each career projection to be so large and to overlap so broadly with each other that it would be basically like they are all predicting the same career.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: PhoSita on February 22, 2018, 01:02:26 PM

And there really aren't that many players that are comparable in both year 1 and year 2 in stats, rates, and team roles with Jaylen Brown like Jeff Green is.   

Honestly, if you look at the numbers, guys like Eric Gordon, Kawhi Leonard, Jamal Murray, Gary Harris, Ben McLemore, Kevin Martin are all much more apt comparisons to Jaylen's production in Year 2 than Jeff Green.
we are talking both year 1 and year 2 though.

Here is Brown year 2 totals:
31.6 mpg , 14 p, 5.4 r, 1.6 a, 1.0 s, 0.4 b, 1.7 t, 2.9 f - 50.9 2PT, 37.8 3PT, 58.8 FT

Now here are those guys and Jeff Green
31.2 m, 11.9 p, 6.0 r, 1.6 a, 1.7 s, 0.6 b, 1.1 t, 1.7 f - 55.4, 37.4, 82.5

36.0 m, 16.9 p, 2.6 r, 3.0 a, 1.1 s, 0.2 b, 2.3 t, 1.5 f - 50.3, 37.1, 74.2

36.8 m, 16.5 p, 6.7 r, 2.0 a, 1.0 s, 0.4 b, 2.2 t, 2.6 f - 46.3, 38.9, 78.8

32.1 m, 12.3 p, 2.9 r, 1.9 a, 1.3 s, 0.2 b, 1.3 t, 1.9 f - 54.3, 35.4, 82.0

26.6 m, 10.8 p, 3.6 r, 1.3 a, 0.8 s, 0.1 b, 1.1 t, 1.9 f - 53.4, 36.9, 84.7

32.6 m, 12.1 p, 2.9 r, 1.7 a, 0.9 s, 0.2 b, 1.7 t, 2.7 f - 50.7, 35.8, 81.3

30.4 m, 16.5 p, 3.5 r, 2.9 a, 0.9 s, 0.3 b, 2.1 t, 2.1 f - 51.3, 38.6, 91.4

Now you tell me, which stat line most closely resembles Jeff Green.


You're leaving out the number of three point attempts, which is one of the more significant indicators of offensive role and efficiency.  It makes a big difference.

Jeff Green per 36 minutes attempted 1.2 threes in his first year and 3.1 threes in his second year.

Jaylen per 36 minutes attempted 3.6 threes as a rookie and 5.3 as a sophomore.


Huge difference.


Also, I don't care which stat line is most similar to Jeff Green.  I care about which stat line is most similar to Jaylen Brown.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: Moranis on February 22, 2018, 04:16:12 PM

And there really aren't that many players that are comparable in both year 1 and year 2 in stats, rates, and team roles with Jaylen Brown like Jeff Green is.   

Honestly, if you look at the numbers, guys like Eric Gordon, Kawhi Leonard, Jamal Murray, Gary Harris, Ben McLemore, Kevin Martin are all much more apt comparisons to Jaylen's production in Year 2 than Jeff Green.
we are talking both year 1 and year 2 though.

Here is Brown year 2 totals:
31.6 mpg , 14 p, 5.4 r, 1.6 a, 1.0 s, 0.4 b, 1.7 t, 2.9 f - 50.9 2PT, 37.8 3PT, 58.8 FT

Now here are those guys and Jeff Green
31.2 m, 11.9 p, 6.0 r, 1.6 a, 1.7 s, 0.6 b, 1.1 t, 1.7 f - 55.4, 37.4, 82.5

36.0 m, 16.9 p, 2.6 r, 3.0 a, 1.1 s, 0.2 b, 2.3 t, 1.5 f - 50.3, 37.1, 74.2

36.8 m, 16.5 p, 6.7 r, 2.0 a, 1.0 s, 0.4 b, 2.2 t, 2.6 f - 46.3, 38.9, 78.8

32.1 m, 12.3 p, 2.9 r, 1.9 a, 1.3 s, 0.2 b, 1.3 t, 1.9 f - 54.3, 35.4, 82.0

26.6 m, 10.8 p, 3.6 r, 1.3 a, 0.8 s, 0.1 b, 1.1 t, 1.9 f - 53.4, 36.9, 84.7

32.6 m, 12.1 p, 2.9 r, 1.7 a, 0.9 s, 0.2 b, 1.7 t, 2.7 f - 50.7, 35.8, 81.3

30.4 m, 16.5 p, 3.5 r, 2.9 a, 0.9 s, 0.3 b, 2.1 t, 2.1 f - 51.3, 38.6, 91.4

Now you tell me, which stat line most closely resembles Jeff Green.


You're leaving out the number of three point attempts, which is one of the more significant indicators of offensive role and efficiency.  It makes a big difference.

Jeff Green per 36 minutes attempted 1.2 threes in his first year and 3.1 threes in his second year.

Jaylen per 36 minutes attempted 3.6 threes as a rookie and 5.3 as a sophomore.


Huge difference.


Also, I don't care which stat line is most similar to Jeff Green.  I care about which stat line is most similar to Jaylen Brown.
I meant Brown obviously, not Green. 

Kawhi attempted 3.5 3 pointers per 36.  Kevin Martin 3.4. 

You are just cherry picking random things, which are just nonsensical because you can't bear to think that Jaylen Brown's first two seasons look an awful lot like Jeff Green's first two seasons.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: PhoSita on February 22, 2018, 04:19:41 PM
Sure, that's it. Couldn't be that I genuinely think they're different players in different roles and I believe youre making a lazy analysis based on superficial characteristics and simplistic box score stats.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: nickagneta on February 22, 2018, 04:42:19 PM
Sure, that's it. Couldn't be that I genuinely think they're different players in different roles and I believe youre making a lazy analysis based on superficial characteristics and simplistic box score stats.
As well as breaking those stats down to the ridiculous per minute permutation to have the argument in the first place.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: tankcity! on February 22, 2018, 04:47:07 PM
Haven't been on this blog in a while. Just want to say I told you guys Jaylen Brown would be good...As for the Jeff Green comp, it's pretty funny. Who cares what Moranis says haha. The guy has been wrong a lot. He like Noel for example, and any other player Philly had. Don't let it bother you. Just enjoy the ride. We have great young players who continue to improve every day.

Jaylen Brown always shows up in big games. Jeff Green shrinks in those games. Jeff Green isn't blocking Kevin Durant. To me not worth reading into the stats. Jeff Green was great his first two years. He just didn't get better. I believe Brown will. That's the diff.

Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: tankcity! on February 22, 2018, 04:47:49 PM
Sure, that's it. Couldn't be that I genuinely think they're different players in different roles and I believe youre making a lazy analysis based on superficial characteristics and simplistic box score stats.

Lol what a rip.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: RodyTur10 on February 22, 2018, 04:52:14 PM
Sure, that's it. Couldn't be that I genuinely think they're different players in different roles and I believe youre making a lazy analysis based on superficial characteristics and simplistic box score stats.
As well as breaking those stats down to the ridiculous per minute permutation to have the argument in the first place.

I think this is unfair. Standardizing the numbers of a group of players that play 26-37 minutes to
production per 36 minutes seems pretty reasonable to me.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: Roy H. on February 22, 2018, 05:01:14 PM
Sure, that's it. Couldn't be that I genuinely think they're different players in different roles and I believe youre making a lazy analysis based on superficial characteristics and simplistic box score stats.

Not even box score stats. Per-36 projections that have a tenuous basis in reality.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: Roy H. on February 22, 2018, 05:04:17 PM
Sure, that's it. Couldn't be that I genuinely think they're different players in different roles and I believe youre making a lazy analysis based on superficial characteristics and simplistic box score stats.
As well as breaking those stats down to the ridiculous per minute permutation to have the argument in the first place.

I think this is unfair. Standardizing the numbers of a group of players that play 26-37 minutes to
production per 36 minutes seems pretty reasonable to me.

What about 17 minutes vs. 28 minutes?

And, per-36 numbers are outdated, anyway. It makes sense to standardize stats via per-100 possessions.

Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: PhoSita on February 22, 2018, 07:24:11 PM
Sure, that's it. Couldn't be that I genuinely think they're different players in different roles and I believe youre making a lazy analysis based on superficial characteristics and simplistic box score stats.
As well as breaking those stats down to the ridiculous per minute permutation to have the argument in the first place.

I think this is unfair. Standardizing the numbers of a group of players that play 26-37 minutes to
production per 36 minutes seems pretty reasonable to me.

What about 17 minutes vs. 28 minutes?

And, per-36 numbers are outdated, anyway. It makes sense to standardize stats via per-100 possessions.

The only time I like to use per-36 stats is as I did above, to note the rate at which a player does something, i.e. how often they shoot threes, free throws, etc.

You're right that per-100 possessions is a better statistic to use, regardless.

Moranis shrugs off the stat as irrelevant but there's a pretty major difference between a player in a complimentary offensive role who attempts a handful of threes per-36 versus a player who attempts 5-6.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: RodyTur10 on February 22, 2018, 08:27:23 PM
Sure, that's it. Couldn't be that I genuinely think they're different players in different roles and I believe youre making a lazy analysis based on superficial characteristics and simplistic box score stats.
As well as breaking those stats down to the ridiculous per minute permutation to have the argument in the first place.

I think this is unfair. Standardizing the numbers of a group of players that play 26-37 minutes to
production per 36 minutes seems pretty reasonable to me.

What about 17 minutes vs. 28 minutes?

And, per-36 numbers are outdated, anyway. It makes sense to standardize stats via per-100 possessions.

That's a good point though. How many possessions does an average game have?
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: Moranis on February 22, 2018, 08:54:00 PM
You guys do realize that Jeff Green and Jaylen Brown have nearly identical per 100 possession numbers for both year 1 and year 2, right? Hmm that is strange and can't possibly be right because they are so different.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: keevsnick on February 22, 2018, 10:36:29 PM
You guys do realize that Jeff Green and Jaylen Brown have nearly identical per 100 possession numbers for both year 1 and year 2, right? Hmm that is strange and can't possibly be right because they are so different.

It also doesn't mean they are the same, or that they will be the same in the future.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: nickagneta on February 22, 2018, 11:01:18 PM
Context matters. Their stats remove the context. That's huge here.


I mean Jason Tatum and Bogan Bogdanovic in Sacramento have very close per 36 and 100 possession stats. Which do you want in the future. Tatum a guy putting up his numbers on a contender or the guy putting up stats on one of the worst teams in the league who can't play a lick of defense?

Context matters.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: Somebody on February 22, 2018, 11:16:12 PM
Context matters. Their stats remove the context. That's huge here.


I mean Jason Tatum and Bogan Bogdanovic in Sacramento have very close per 36 and 100 possession stats. Which do you want in the future. Tatum a guy putting up his numbers on a contender or the guy putting up stats on one of the worst teams in the league who can't play a lick of defense?

Context matters.
Hey you're talking about the Rising Stars "MVP"!
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: Moranis on February 23, 2018, 06:33:05 AM
Context matters. Their stats remove the context. That's huge here.


I mean Jason Tatum and Bogan Bogdanovic in Sacramento have very close per 36 and 100 possession stats. Which do you want in the future. Tatum a guy putting up his numbers on a contender or the guy putting up stats on one of the worst teams in the league who can't play a lick of defense?

Context matters.
Jeff Green and Jaylen Brown in year 2 were both the second leading scorer, 2nd on their team in shots, etc.  They not only have similar advanced metrics but also similar totals, rates, etc. Now sure Boston is a much better team record wise then the Thunder were but their roles and stats were nearly identical.  And I've said all along it doesn't mean years 3, 4, etc. will be similar.   Brown absolutely could continue to improve and continue his upward trajectory or he could stay flat or he could regress.  The past is not an indicator of the future on these things because everything could happen. 
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: ImShakHeIsShaq on February 23, 2018, 07:59:56 AM
I don't know why being Jeff Green is a knock, maybe he is the Jeff Green that becomes consistently good as he ages and doesn't become static. Good JG is a top notch player, he just never found a way to turn it on most nights. The Jeff Green that would go blow for blow with LBJ and sometimes outperform him but do it more often. Consistency is huge. He was consistently average but had another gear he didn't access nearly enough. Give me a Jeff Green with an alpha mindset and we're doing well. I hope that's jaylen but either way it's too early to say who he is either way.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: Moranis on February 23, 2018, 08:28:21 AM
Sure, that's it. Couldn't be that I genuinely think they're different players in different roles and I believe youre making a lazy analysis based on superficial characteristics and simplistic box score stats.
As well as breaking those stats down to the ridiculous per minute permutation to have the argument in the first place.

I think this is unfair. Standardizing the numbers of a group of players that play 26-37 minutes to
production per 36 minutes seems pretty reasonable to me.

What about 17 minutes vs. 28 minutes?

And, per-36 numbers are outdated, anyway. It makes sense to standardize stats via per-100 possessions.

The only time I like to use per-36 stats is as I did above, to note the rate at which a player does something, i.e. how often they shoot threes, free throws, etc.

You're right that per-100 possessions is a better statistic to use, regardless.

Moranis shrugs off the stat as irrelevant but there's a pretty major difference between a player in a complimentary offensive role who attempts a handful of threes per-36 versus a player who attempts 5-6.
BTW, on the 3 point thing.  In 08/09 the Thunder as a team shot 11.6 3's per game.  Green's 3.2 attempts led the team (just ahead of Durant and well ahead of 3rd) and comprised over 27.5% of the total attempts.  Boston this year attempts 31.4 3's a game.  Brown's 4.6 is nearly 2 attempts lower than Irving, is tied with Smart, and barely ahead of Rozier.  That 4.6 is less than 15% of the total 3's attempted by the team.

In other words, Green was a far more active and important 3 point shooter than Brown is, despite Brown taking more attempts.  So yeah, not the best comparison, but not at all for the reason you think it is.  The league was just a different beast back then when it comes to the 3 ball.  And as I said in my last post, both Green and Brown took the 2nd most shots on the team and were the 2nd leading scorers. 
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: JBcat on February 23, 2018, 09:46:33 AM
Jeff Green was a 3 year college player so he was still in college at the same age Brown is in his 2nd year in the NBA.  Let’s see how their stats compare next year, and the year after for Brown.

Not to mention I just think they are different type athletes where Brown has more upside.  Brown has more agility and body control, lateral movement, and power than Green had. If he tightens his handle even more, and develops a more refined offensive game watch out.  Green is very good at straight line drives where he can elevate, and he is probably getting more opportunities like that in Cleveland with more open space.  He’s never been one to really create on his own IMO.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: PhoSita on February 23, 2018, 10:21:05 AM
BTW, on the 3 point thing.  In 08/09 the Thunder as a team shot 11.6 3's per game.  Green's 3.2 attempts led the team (just ahead of Durant and well ahead of 3rd) and comprised over 27.5% of the total attempts.  Boston this year attempts 31.4 3's a game.  Brown's 4.6 is nearly 2 attempts lower than Irving, is tied with Smart, and barely ahead of Rozier.  That 4.6 is less than 15% of the total 3's attempted by the team.

In other words, Green was a far more active and important 3 point shooter than Brown is, despite Brown taking more attempts.  So yeah, not the best comparison, but not at all for the reason you think it is.  The league was just a different beast back then when it comes to the 3 ball.  And as I said in my last post, both Green and Brown took the 2nd most shots on the team and were the 2nd leading scorers.

40% of Jaylen's shots this year are threes.  That's a much higher rate than Green has ever approached in his career.  Green's career high is 34.6%, and that was last season.

I would appreciate your "changing league" argument more if Green's perimeter attempts had increased over time, but this hasn't been the case to the degree that one would expect if Green really were a similar kind of player in a similar kind of role to Brown.

Jaylen's shot profile through 2 seasons marks him as a wing player, and in year two he's already an above average 3 point shooter despite entering the league with a reputation as a player with poor range.

Green was always a tweener who seemed to have the potential to become more of a perimeter player ("top 5 SF"), but never developed the consistent outside shot or the shot profile of that kind of player.


I will acknowledge that Brown and Green have similarities.  I just don't agree that Green is the best comparison here, as you have suggested.  There are other players who entered the league at a more similar age and played a more similar role from the get-go whose stats are more relevant and comparable.  Those players are by and large guards and wings.  Not all of them have gone on to anything like stardom; some have not even, to date, established themselves as useful rotation players.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: PhoSita on February 23, 2018, 10:22:48 AM
Context matters. Their stats remove the context. That's huge here.


I mean Jason Tatum and Bogan Bogdanovic in Sacramento have very close per 36 and 100 possession stats. Which do you want in the future. Tatum a guy putting up his numbers on a contender or the guy putting up stats on one of the worst teams in the league who can't play a lick of defense?

Context matters.

I'd also point out that Bogdan is 25 years old and spent years playing professional ball overseas before coming here.

So yeah.  Context is crucial.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: tankcity! on February 23, 2018, 10:37:37 AM
BTW, on the 3 point thing.  In 08/09 the Thunder as a team shot 11.6 3's per game.  Green's 3.2 attempts led the team (just ahead of Durant and well ahead of 3rd) and comprised over 27.5% of the total attempts.  Boston this year attempts 31.4 3's a game.  Brown's 4.6 is nearly 2 attempts lower than Irving, is tied with Smart, and barely ahead of Rozier.  That 4.6 is less than 15% of the total 3's attempted by the team.

In other words, Green was a far more active and important 3 point shooter than Brown is, despite Brown taking more attempts.  So yeah, not the best comparison, but not at all for the reason you think it is.  The league was just a different beast back then when it comes to the 3 ball.  And as I said in my last post, both Green and Brown took the 2nd most shots on the team and were the 2nd leading scorers.

40% of Jaylen's shots this year are threes.  That's a much higher rate than Green has ever approached in his career.  Green's career high is 34.6%, and that was last season.

I would appreciate your "changing league" argument more if Green's perimeter attempts had increased over time, but this hasn't been the case to the degree that one would expect if Green really were a similar kind of player in a similar kind of role to Brown.

Jaylen's shot profile through 2 seasons marks him as a wing player, and in year two he's already an above average 3 point shooter despite entering the league with a reputation as a player with poor range.

Green was always a tweener who seemed to have the potential to become more of a perimeter player ("top 5 SF"), but never developed the consistent outside shot or the shot profile of that kind of player.


I will acknowledge that Brown and Green have similarities.  I just don't agree that Green is the best comparison here, as you have suggested.  There are other players who entered the league at a more similar age and played a more similar role from the get-go whose stats are more relevant and comparable.  Those players are by and large guards and wings.  Not all of them have gone on to anything like stardom; some have not even, to date, established themselves as useful rotation players.

Stop making sense please. Moranis's brain can't handle it.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: tankcity! on February 23, 2018, 10:40:31 AM
Sure, that's it. Couldn't be that I genuinely think they're different players in different roles and I believe youre making a lazy analysis based on superficial characteristics and simplistic box score stats.
As well as breaking those stats down to the ridiculous per minute permutation to have the argument in the first place.

I think this is unfair. Standardizing the numbers of a group of players that play 26-37 minutes to
production per 36 minutes seems pretty reasonable to me.

What about 17 minutes vs. 28 minutes?

And, per-36 numbers are outdated, anyway. It makes sense to standardize stats via per-100 possessions.

The only time I like to use per-36 stats is as I did above, to note the rate at which a player does something, i.e. how often they shoot threes, free throws, etc.

You're right that per-100 possessions is a better statistic to use, regardless.

Moranis shrugs off the stat as irrelevant but there's a pretty major difference between a player in a complimentary offensive role who attempts a handful of threes per-36 versus a player who attempts 5-6.
BTW, on the 3 point thing.  In 08/09 the Thunder as a team shot 11.6 3's per game.  Green's 3.2 attempts led the team (just ahead of Durant and well ahead of 3rd) and comprised over 27.5% of the total attempts.  Boston this year attempts 31.4 3's a game.  Brown's 4.6 is nearly 2 attempts lower than Irving, is tied with Smart, and barely ahead of Rozier.  That 4.6 is less than 15% of the total 3's attempted by the team.

In other words, Green was a far more active and important 3 point shooter than Brown is, despite Brown taking more attempts.  So yeah, not the best comparison, but not at all for the reason you think it is.  The league was just a different beast back then when it comes to the 3 ball.  And as I said in my last post, both Green and Brown took the 2nd most shots on the team and were the 2nd leading scorers.

Can I ask you something. Do you ever watch a player play on TV? Or do you just evaluate players based off stats?
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: Vermont Green on February 23, 2018, 10:43:20 AM
How did this become an argument about Jeff Green and Jaylen Brown?

When Jeff Green was 21, he was a very promising prospect.  Brown at 21 is an even more promising prospect.  Promise doesn't always translate and it may not for Brown but I am very high on Jaylen Brown.  Green had length that Brown doesn't have but Brown has an edge in everything else that I can think of including intangible things like competitiveness.  There is never an exact comparison or any way to know how a player will play in the future but I feel Reggie Lewis may be a more apt comp for Brown than Jeff Green (other than the fact that both last names are colors).

That isn't saying Brown and Lewis are the same as Lewis was more of a scorer than a shooter (Lewis played center in college) but I feel that Brown is going to improve and find a lot more ways to score as he develops and could ultimately impact the game as much as Lewis did.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: footey on February 23, 2018, 10:45:55 AM
Can we all just agree that Jaylen Brown has improved considerably from last year, is athletically gifted, but is inconsistent in terms of his assertiveness, and really struggles at the foul line, which probably negatively impacts his decision making.

Peace.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: green_bballers13 on February 23, 2018, 11:50:32 AM
Can we all just agree that Jaylen Brown has improved considerably from last year, is athletically gifted, but is inconsistent in terms of his assertiveness, and really struggles at the foul line, which probably negatively impacts his decision making.

Peace.

I'm not sure about the last line. You think his free throw shooting has impacted his decisions? I don't agree with that.

I think that Jaylen is confident. I'm not worried about his self-esteem or FT shooting. Esp. at 21 yo.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: keevsnick on February 23, 2018, 12:32:22 PM
How did this become an argument about Jeff Green and Jaylen Brown?

When Jeff Green was 21, he was a very promising prospect.  Brown at 21 is an even more promising prospect.  Promise doesn't always translate and it may not for Brown but I am very high on Jaylen Brown.  Green had length that Brown doesn't have but Brown has an edge in everything else that I can think of including intangible things like competitiveness.  There is never an exact comparison or any way to know how a player will play in the future but I feel Reggie Lewis may be a more apt comp for Brown than Jeff Green (other than the fact that both last names are colors).

That isn't saying Brown and Lewis are the same as Lewis was more of a scorer than a shooter (Lewis played center in college) but I feel that Brown is going to improve and find a lot more ways to score as he develops and could ultimately impact the game as much as Lewis did.

Ya we lost track of original argument a bit here. The thing that set it off was the claim that we have a Jeff green 2.0 on our hands with Jaylen brown, in terms of consistency. That claim is of course silly because Jaylen is 21 and by nature young guys are inconsistent. Then it became about whether the two are comparable statically, which they are but that's also meaningless because its by no means predictive of what he will be in the future. Really this entire thread is a monument to the dangers of player comparisons.
Title: Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
Post by: gift on February 23, 2018, 12:35:09 PM
How did this become an argument about Jeff Green and Jaylen Brown?

When Jeff Green was 21, he was a very promising prospect.  Brown at 21 is an even more promising prospect.  Promise doesn't always translate and it may not for Brown but I am very high on Jaylen Brown.  Green had length that Brown doesn't have but Brown has an edge in everything else that I can think of including intangible things like competitiveness.  There is never an exact comparison or any way to know how a player will play in the future but I feel Reggie Lewis may be a more apt comp for Brown than Jeff Green (other than the fact that both last names are colors).

That isn't saying Brown and Lewis are the same as Lewis was more of a scorer than a shooter (Lewis played center in college) but I feel that Brown is going to improve and find a lot more ways to score as he develops and could ultimately impact the game as much as Lewis did.

Ya we lost track of original argument a bit here. The thing that set it off was the claim that we have a Jeff green 2.0 on our hands with Jaylen brown, in terms of consistency. That claim is of course silly because Jaylen is 21 and by nature young guys are inconsistent. Then it became about whether the two are comparable statically, which they are but that's also meaningless because its by no means predictive of what he will be in the future. Really this entire thread is a monument to the dangers of player comparisons.

I logged in just to say 'yep'