Anyone else worried about the Celtics love for the three point shot this year?

[nickagneta]

I agree, only Sheed is the one we have to worry about.

Through four games, Sheed leads the team with 25 three's attempted and hitting at 36%.

Those 25 threes from Sheed make up about 69% of his total shot attempts. (Something to be worried about as Sheed is only shooting 39% from the floor)

I think the value of 3's is difficult to measure.  When they fall, you love them; when they don't, you can lose games because of it.  
Sheed hitting 36% means that for every 100 shots he takes he hits 36, netting 108 points.  You'd have to hit at a 54% average to match this output if all his shots were 2's.  The C's 43% overall average nets them 129 ponts per 100 shot attempts. This extrapolates to a ridiculous 64% shooting percentage if the shots were 2's.  
Among the many flaws of looking at it this way is that it doesn't address what happens off of a missed 3 v. what happens off of a missed 2 (on average).  Teams seem to be off and running off of long 3 misses. I'd be interested to see opposing teams' stats off of missed 3's before deciding how much I like the 3.  Though, it seems there's never much of a downside when a team is hitting 43%.

Here's the problem, teams never hit nearly 44% of their three's for a season. The record is 42%.

Heck the record for most three's averaged per game for a season by a team is 24 and the C's are close to 22 a game right now and no one sees a problem with this but me?

[BudweiserCeltic]

I agree, only Sheed is the one we have to worry about.

Through four games, Sheed leads the team with 25 three's attempted and hitting at 36%.

Those 25 threes from Sheed make up about 69% of his total shot attempts. (Something to be worried about as Sheed is only shooting 39% from the floor)

I think the value of 3's is difficult to measure.  When they fall, you love them; when they don't, you can lose games because of it.  
Sheed hitting 36% means that for every 100 shots he takes he hits 36, netting 108 points.  You'd have to hit at a 54% average to match this output if all his shots were 2's.  The C's 43% overall average nets them 129 ponts per 100 shot attempts. This extrapolates to a ridiculous 64% shooting percentage if the shots were 2's.  
Among the many flaws of looking at it this way is that it doesn't address what happens off of a missed 3 v. what happens off of a missed 2 (on average).  Teams seem to be off and running off of long 3 misses. I'd be interested to see opposing teams' stats off of missed 3's before deciding how much I like the 3.  Though, it seems there's never much of a downside when a team is hitting 43%.

Here's the problem, teams never hit nearly 44% of their three's for a season. The record is 42%.

Heck the record for most three's averaged per game for a season by a team is 24 and the C's are close to 22 a game right now and no one sees a problem with this but me?

No. Because us shooting 3-pointers don't reflect how dangerous we can also be from the inside. I'm willing to bet that all those teams that shot a ton of 3s historically lacked the inside presence we possess.

And I'm willing to bet, that not many teams have had a combination of players of the likes of Ray, Pierce, House, and Sheed taking the bulk of the 3point shots. We had Posey in here a couple of years ago, and that was a similar threat... difference is that Sheed spreads the 5 spot AND can play along side those other 3point threats. When we did it with Posey, it was at the expense of height.

And even so, it was our 3point shooting that opened up our offense during the playoffs.

We can manage.

The real problem is not the amount of 3s, but when we're taking them and how we're taking them, and how many in a row are we taking. At times we shoot too many in a row (problem is when we miss), but other than that our shots have been wide-open and a consequence of good ball movement. You can't ask for more.

[Fan from VT]

I have no problem taking what other teams are giving us.

What I haven't seen are contested 3's that bank in. That would be luck. What I've seen is phenomenal square up shooters (Pierce, Ray, House) shooting wide open 3's.

Teams don't shoot 44% on 3's because they're contested. but I bet they shoot upwards of that if you just looked at uncontested shots, which is what we've been given so far. If we keep taking 3's when defenses adjust, that would be bad, but the best shot in the game is a wide open 3 so I have no problem taking those.

[Jon]

I don't think makes are nearly as important as the threat.  Just look at the Cleveland game.  Sure it helped that Sheed hit some threes, but what was more important is that the Cavs had to change their defense simply based on the fact that Sheed might hit a three.  That allowed for PP to go off and for the C's to win.  That won't change even when Sheed goes through a cold streak. 

In many ways, Sheed does for the C's what Rodney Rogers did when he was here in 2001, only Sheed does it with better defense, passing, size, and a post game (when he uses it). 

[USG]

I have no problem taking what other teams are giving us.

What I haven't seen are contested 3's that bank in. That would be luck. What I've seen is phenomenal square up shooters (Pierce, Ray, House) shooting wide open 3's.

Teams don't shoot 44% on 3's because they're contested. but I bet they shoot upwards of that if you just looked at uncontested shots, which is what we've been given so far. If we keep taking 3's when defenses adjust, that would be bad, but the best shot in the game is a wide open 3 so I have no problem taking those.

Best "shot" in the game is a dunk/easy lay-in.

I haven't seen as much of that--particularly based on Rondo penetration--as I'd like.

[Bahku]

No ... we have counted on the three-pointer pretty heavily for the last two years and done fine ... if it gets out of hand, Doc will reign it in.

[Tai]

An awful lot of optimism given the numbers that I have given. Right now the Celtics are shooting close to 44% from three as a team. That isn't going to happen all year. A percentage closer to 38% is probably a lot more reasonable.

Also, at the current rate these Celtics are on a pace to throw up 1788 3pt attempts this year. Does anyone know what NBA champion shot the most 3 pt attempts ever in one season? Anyone? It was the 2007-08 Boston Celtics with 1564. The Celtics are on pace to shatter their own record of 3 pt attempts in a season by an NBA champion if they win.

Does anyone want to guess which championship team in NBA history had the highest percentage of their shots be three point attempts? Once again, your 2007-08 Celtics at my aforementioned 24.88%. As a matter of fact, except for that C's team and the 2006-07 Spurs, who were also around 24% of their shots being threes, virtually ever other NBA champion during the three point era has been below 22% with the great majority of NBA champs below 20% of their shots being taken from beyond the arc.

This team is closing in on 30% of their shots being threes and I refuse to believe at this pace they can win an NBA championship. They won't hit 44% of those shots for the year and not all those threes have been good threes in the flow of the offense. Taking that type of offense into the playoffs would be a huge mistake in my estimation and I am really, really surprised that people haven't seen this team propensity for throwing up a three rather than working something else.

You must see the Celtics taking 3 pointers with 2 guys in their faces. As far as I've seen, most of their 3's have been wide open. Why shouldn't they take those?

[Rondo_is_better]

I would be if we weren't such a bomb squad. We rained threes last year and shot 40%, best in the league. We're even better this year at droppin' em so I don't foresee any problems unless we suddenly start sucking at them.

[Hoops]

An awful lot of optimism given the numbers that I have given. Right now the Celtics are shooting close to 44% from three as a team. That isn't going to happen all year. A percentage closer to 38% is probably a lot more reasonable.

Also, at the current rate these Celtics are on a pace to throw up 1788 3pt attempts this year. Does anyone know what NBA champion shot the most 3 pt attempts ever in one season? Anyone? It was the 2007-08 Boston Celtics with 1564. The Celtics are on pace to shatter their own record of 3 pt attempts in a season by an NBA champion if they win.

Does anyone want to guess which championship team in NBA history had the highest percentage of their shots be three point attempts? Once again, your 2007-08 Celtics at my aforementioned 24.88%. As a matter of fact, except for that C's team and the 2006-07 Spurs, who were also around 24% of their shots being threes, virtually ever other NBA champion during the three point era has been below 22% with the great majority of NBA champs below 20% of their shots being taken from beyond the arc.

This team is closing in on 30% of their shots being threes and I refuse to believe at this pace they can win an NBA championship. They won't hit 44% of those shots for the year and not all those threes have been good threes in the flow of the offense. Taking that type of offense into the playoffs would be a huge mistake in my estimation and I am really, really surprised that people haven't seen this team propensity for throwing up a three rather than working something else.

You must see the Celtics taking 3 pointers with 2 guys in their faces. As far as I've seen, most of their 3's have been wide open. Why shouldn't they take those?

Yeah, I don't think there's a problem with taking open shots within the flow of the offense.

I don't think the rate of shooting threes matters nearly as much as the context in which they are shot. If we're forcing them, that could cause problems. But the offensive flow will likely swing back and forth during the year - if we keep killing teams with the three, they'll start defending it harder, which will inevitably open up the paint. Honestly, I don't know how teams will defend this year's Celtics team. They're a defensive coordinator's nightmare.

[CelticG1]

I agree, only Sheed is the one we have to worry about.

Through four games, Sheed leads the team with 25 three's attempted and hitting at 36%.

Those 25 threes from Sheed make up about 69% of his total shot attempts. (Something to be worried about as Sheed is only shooting 39% from the floor)

I think the value of 3's is difficult to measure.  When they fall, you love them; when they don't, you can lose games because of it.  
Sheed hitting 36% means that for every 100 shots he takes he hits 36, netting 108 points.  You'd have to hit at a 54% average to match this output if all his shots were 2's.  The C's 43% overall average nets them 129 ponts per 100 shot attempts. This extrapolates to a ridiculous 64% shooting percentage if the shots were 2's.  
Among the many flaws of looking at it this way is that it doesn't address what happens off of a missed 3 v. what happens off of a missed 2 (on average).  Teams seem to be off and running off of long 3 misses. I'd be interested to see opposing teams' stats off of missed 3's before deciding how much I like the 3.  Though, it seems there's never much of a downside when a team is hitting 43%.

Here's the problem, teams never hit nearly 44% of their three's for a season. The record is 42%.

Heck the record for most three's averaged per game for a season by a team is 24 and the C's are close to 22 a game right now and no one sees a problem with this but me?

I don't see this as a problem because we are winning and shooting the 3 at a high percentage. We are not forcing up bad shots at all and are getting open looks. I think this is fine for the time being as we are shooting at a pretty high rate. Teams will eventually start to adjust to us especially if we continue to hit them at this pace. As other teams adjust we can adjust. If they are giving us wide open threes though we have to take them and until it starts to affect our offense negatively or if we start losing games because we are jacking up 3's than I don't see it as a problem. It's still very early and I'm sure these numbers will even out. But if Sheed, House, Ray, or Pierce have an open look from the 3 I tell them to take it everytime

[fairweatherfan]

An awful lot of optimism given the numbers that I have given. Right now the Celtics are shooting close to 44% from three as a team. That isn't going to happen all year. A percentage closer to 38% is probably a lot more reasonable.

Also, at the current rate these Celtics are on a pace to throw up 1788 3pt attempts this year. Does anyone know what NBA champion shot the most 3 pt attempts ever in one season? Anyone? It was the 2007-08 Boston Celtics with 1564. The Celtics are on pace to shatter their own record of 3 pt attempts in a season by an NBA champion if they win.

Does anyone want to guess which championship team in NBA history had the highest percentage of their shots be three point attempts? Once again, your 2007-08 Celtics at my aforementioned 24.88%. As a matter of fact, except for that C's team and the 2006-07 Spurs, who were also around 24% of their shots being threes, virtually ever other NBA champion during the three point era has been below 22% with the great majority of NBA champs below 20% of their shots being taken from beyond the arc.

This team is closing in on 30% of their shots being threes and I refuse to believe at this pace they can win an NBA championship. They won't hit 44% of those shots for the year and not all those threes have been good threes in the flow of the offense. Taking that type of offense into the playoffs would be a huge mistake in my estimation and I am really, really surprised that people haven't seen this team propensity for throwing up a three rather than working something else.

These numbers are misleading unless you compare them to the overall league trend.  Both the total % of 3pt shots attempted and made has been steadily rising ever since the shot was introduced in the early 80s, as more and more players entered the league who grew up with the 3 pt shot, and more coaches have learned to utilize it in their game plans.  So, it makes perfect sense that the leaders in those categories would all be relatively recent teams, and older champions would tend to take and make significantly fewer 3s.  That alone says very little about the utility of relying more on the three.

Also, when teams are making more threes, they will tend to keep taking them. And we have been making them. Extrapolating from a four-game sample when the team has been hot to an 82 game season plus playoffs, where shooting will be more variable, doesn't make for very accurate prediction going forward, because it assumes the team won't adjust when their percentages inevitably drop.  The important issue isn't whether we keep taking threes while they're going in, it's if we change our strategy and focus on other areas of attack when we cool off.  I think that we will, but only time will tell.

[Who]

It's too early to look at stats. I don't expect this team to be taking that many more three pointers than they did during the Championship season.

Rasheed Wallace has averaged 4.6 three point attempts per game for the last four seasons in 32.5 minutes a night (one every seven minutes). So far for the Celtics he's taking 6.3 three pointers (would be a new career high) in only 20.8 minutes (one every 3.3 minutes). That looks unlikely to continue.

I expect Sheed be somewhere in the neighborhood (likely above) his career high (one every 6.44 minutes) on three point attempts per minute this season ... but I'd be amazed if he almost doubled his previous high which is pretty much doing right now.

Like I said, I expect that difference to come on back down for the team to be more in line with where they were during the Title run.

[KCattheStripe]

It also makes the upfakes more convincing. Just wish the layups would go in.

[Chris]

I agree, only Sheed is the one we have to worry about.

Through four games, Sheed leads the team with 25 three's attempted and hitting at 36%.

Those 25 threes from Sheed make up about 69% of his total shot attempts. (Something to be worried about as Sheed is only shooting 39% from the floor)

I think the value of 3's is difficult to measure.  When they fall, you love them; when they don't, you can lose games because of it.  
Sheed hitting 36% means that for every 100 shots he takes he hits 36, netting 108 points.  You'd have to hit at a 54% average to match this output if all his shots were 2's.  The C's 43% overall average nets them 129 ponts per 100 shot attempts. This extrapolates to a ridiculous 64% shooting percentage if the shots were 2's.  
Among the many flaws of looking at it this way is that it doesn't address what happens off of a missed 3 v. what happens off of a missed 2 (on average).  Teams seem to be off and running off of long 3 misses. I'd be interested to see opposing teams' stats off of missed 3's before deciding how much I like the 3.  Though, it seems there's never much of a downside when a team is hitting 43%.

Here's the problem, teams never hit nearly 44% of their three's for a season. The record is 42%.

Heck the record for most three's averaged per game for a season by a team is 24 and the C's are close to 22 a game right now and no one sees a problem with this but me?

It will be a problem if they stop falling, and they don't adjust.  But I see no reason to keep shooting when they are going in.

[makaveli]

Sheed took 36 shots so far, 25 of them were for 3 and he made 9 of them.
I would like to see him post more