Getting knocked out of the playoffs (only a matter of time now) is terrible news for Dallas. There's just so little to be optimistic about when considering next season. They're miles away from being a contender.
Their offense was horrible in the playoffs and it hasn't been much better in the regular season since the trade. They get no easy baskets outside of Kidd pushing the ball on the break. They can't pass and move in the halfcourt. Everything is one-on-one. Everybody over-relies on Dirk and to a far lesser extent Josh Howard. Everything is a contested jump shot. It's hard to win with that.
Their defense hasn't been much better. Kidd is the biggest problem. He's been absolutely trashed by oppossing point guards and the West is loaded with talented point guards. They can't defend the pick and roll with Kidd. I don't think he can even guard point guards anymore. I think they have to have a shooting guard who can do that and switch assignments on a nightly basis. Dampier also looks very vulnerable against quicker or more athletic big men, and he doesn't bring enough elsewhere to make up for it. Dirk is slightly above average. Josh is above average but not great. That's 4/5ths of your starting lineup. That's a problem.
Can they change?
They have no cap space. They have three future first round picks to give up to New Jersey. They have little young talent (Bass). They have the largest payroll in the league at $105mil this season which will go down to $82mil next year but that's still way over the cap. Even at that, they only have 7 players (Kidd, Dirk, Josh, Damp, Terry, Stack, Bass) on their payroll/roster for next season. Everyone else is an upcoming free agent (Eddie Jones has a player option but I think he'll retire).
Who on their team is even tradeable? Dampier isn't. Terry isn't really, I doubt you recieve anyone as good as him in return. That's 23mil of cap space that isn't moveable. Add another 40mil between Kidd and Dirk (they don't want to do that and I think they lose in any trade that they'll be offered). That's 63mil. Jerry Stackhouse? Nah not really. He's had a poor season and has been showing his age for two years now. Why accept 14mil over two for what he's giving these days? Then why do that and give up something valuable? That would be madness. The only tradeable guy is Josh Howard. That's not much flexibility.
Do they even have the right players around Kidd to make this work?
I don't think they have anywhere close to the right supporting cast around Kidd. He needs guys who are offensive threats, who can score, who can pass, who are intelligent and can move without the ball. He needs these types of players to take advantage of his creativity and passing. Not guys like Eric Dampier. Not guys like Devean George or Eddie Jones. There is going to be a lot of veteran's minimum guys filling out their bench next year, you think they can upgrade these guys? That's unlikely.
I don't think Stackhouse fits in either. He isn't atheltic enough to get out on the break and run. His age and loss of athleticism has limited him offensively. He can't defend the point which is a problem because Kidd needs a two guard who can. He isn't a shooter which is a problem because neither is Kidd and suddenly you have a backcourt that can't shoot and can be cheated off all game long. He doesn't fit in.
Perhaps the most [dang]ing issue - I'm not convinced Josh Howard fits in either. He's averaged something like 15ppg and 5rpg on poor shooting while Dirk and Kidd are in the lineup. The only decent stretch he had since Kidd's arrival was while Dirk was out injured and a lot of success then came on isos and one-on-one play. He hasn't been able to move without the basketball. He hasn't been able to take advantage of or be part of good ball movement. He has spent three and a half years in Avery's iso dependant offense, he just hasn't shaken out of it. Howard is a smart, athletic and very talented player. He should be thriving next to Jason Kidd. He should be getting fastbreak dunks. He should be getting open jump shots. He should be getting back door layups. He should be seeing less double teams than he's seen in two years because of the ball movement. But it's happening. There's been no reason on the court since the Kidd deal for any optimism for this changing. Do you bet the house on this altering? Jeez I'm not so sure how happy I'd be with that. Do you have to move him?
If you move Josh Howard what do you get back? This is a player that's worse than Jason Richardson. He has a slightly better contract which will help but borderline all-star swingmen don't net a lot in return.
So what do you if you're Dallas? Do you break up the team?
Normally I'm steadfast against doing this because I think there's a lot of opportunities out there that have been untapped. I don't like giving up good talent when you have no idea how you'll replace it. I don't like giving up a 50+ win team that was close to a ring with no idea how you'll get back there. Not while there's a chance. Is there a chance? I'm struggling to see it.
What can this team do to be a contender next season or the following season? Besides get lucky I don't have anything. Not an idea. I think it probably is time to give up on this team. I don't think this core can win. Yes it's likely time to blow up this team, they simply don't have the moves (flexibility) available to fix this team.
Which brings me to another huge question. Dirk is 30 years old, is he young enough to rebuild around? Can you rebuild a whole time quickly enough for him to remain the number one option? After recent failures he likely needs a player who's of at least comparable in talent level. Can you acquire that in three years after blowing up the roster? Is he part of the plan going forward?
Very tough summer in Big D. Not a lot of reason for happiness or optimism.
