2013 CB Draft: Western Semi Finals: Oklahoma City(2) vs Dallas(3)

[Lucky17]

Also, how did Los Angeles as a contender work out?

I assume this is a dig at Howard?

Perhaps we should ask Mike D'Antoni about his inept coaching strategy, or Kobe Bryant about his inability to share the basketball.

Despite these two huge impediments to his personal success, Dwight Howard still managed to post numbers just a tick below his career averages last season.

Still, Dwight remains the whipping boy for the 2012-13 Lakers' season of failed expectations.

[P.S.: Let's not mention Steve Nash's 6.7 apg, a career low since the 1999-2000 season with Dallas, in only 50 (!) games played.]

Oh, the Lakers were a disaster.  I just think it's weird for IP to argue that Howard made the Lakers instant contenders.

What? I'm arguing that. Well I am, but not like you say.

I'm saying LA was elevated to the status of 'contender' by fans and the press alike, and Houston now is too.

Okay...  so Howard elevated the team on paper, but in reality, the Lakers weren't as good as the fans and the media thought.

That sounds remarkably like the present matchup, where the conventional wisdom is that Howard would walk all over Big Al, when the reality of the situation to date is the opposite.

Fixed that for you, Roy.

And again, the reality shows that Big Al has matched Dwight's scoring in head-to-head matchups, but in all other facets of the game, Dwight's come out on top.

As with the last series, OKC enjoys a considerable combined advantage over its opponent at the PG and C positions. The question is whether Eric Gordon, Luol Deng, and Josh Smith can play efficiently enough on offense against OKC's team defense to make up the difference. I don't believe they can.

[Roy H.]

As with the last series, OKC enjoys a considerable combined advantage over its opponent at the PG and C positions. The question is whether Eric Gordon, Luol Deng, and Josh Smith can play efficiently enough on offense against OKC's team defense to make up the difference.

In terms of scoring, though, you concede that OKC only has the advantage at one position, correct? 

[indeedproceed]

I keep starting to wade neck-deep into the Al Jefferson/Dwight Howard numbers because I think taking the last 5 games is in fact cherry picking, and their career numbers I don't think accurately show you the matchup either.

[Lucky17]

As with the last series, OKC enjoys a considerable combined advantage over its opponent at the PG and C positions. The question is whether Eric Gordon, Luol Deng, and Josh Smith can play efficiently enough on offense against OKC's team defense to make up the difference.

In terms of scoring, though, you concede that OKC only has the advantage at one position, correct?

I think Dwight still generates more offense than Al, in terms of offensive rebounds and assists. He also prevents more scoring than Al, thanks again to his rebounding numbers and blocks. Also, keep in mind that Al's going to have to work pretty hard on defense vs. Dwight. Even if he manages to stay out of foul trouble, I think Al's offensive efficiency will suffer a bit.

Rose holds a significant advantage over his opposite number, the largest head to head advantage in the series. Couple Rose's scoring with his playmaking, and his advantage over Nash becomes the deciding factor in the series.

[Roy H.]

I keep starting to wade neck-deep into the Al Jefferson/Dwight Howard numbers because I think taking the last 5 games is in fact cherry picking, and their career numbers I don't think accurately show you the matchup either.

... says the guy who once tried to use what, two games between Kyrie Irving and Jrue Holiday as proof that Holiday was a Kyrie stopper?

We're talking about 18 games over nine years.  That's not an adequate sample size for you? 

I mean this sincerely, but how does a guy who relies so much upon numbers in his own arguments suddenly disregard them?  Are you allowing bias / prejudice color your perception?

Because, if we took two players, and called them "Player A" and "Player B", rather than "Al Jefferson" and "Dwight Howard", you'd agree that they offset each other offensively.

Heck, even outside of the H2H context, Big Al is a better scorer than Howard.  These H2H numbers aren't anything bizarre.  The only reason why they'd be weird is if you had the pre-conception that Big Al was some sort of horrible defender that Howard would walk all over.  Unfortunately, that's just not reality.

Heck, even Lucky has conceded that H2H, Howard and Big Al are going to score about the same.

[Roy H.]

Rose holds a significant advantage over his opposite number, the largest head to head advantage in the series.

I think this is probably true.  How does this one advantage, though, neutralize the advantage that Deng + Smith + Gordon have over each of their counterparts?

[indeedproceed]

I keep starting to wade neck-deep into the Al Jefferson/Dwight Howard numbers because I think taking the last 5 games is in fact cherry picking, and their career numbers I don't think accurately show you the matchup either.

... says the guy who once tried to use what, two games between Kyrie Irving and Jrue Holiday as proof that Holiday was a Kyrie stopper?

We're talking about 18 games over nine years.  That's not an adequate sample size for you? 

I mean this sincerely, but how does a guy who relies so much upon numbers in his own arguments suddenly disregard them?  Are you allowing bias / prejudice color your perception?

Because, if we took two players, and called them "Player A" and "Player B", rather than "Al Jefferson" and "Dwight Howard", you'd agree that they offset each other offensively.

Heck, even outside of the H2H context, Big Al is a better scorer than Howard.  These H2H numbers aren't anything bizarre.  The only reason why they'd be weird is if you had the pre-conception that Big Al was some sort of horrible defender that Howard would walk all over.  Unfortunately, that's just not reality.

Heck, even Lucky has conceded that H2H, Howard and Big Al are going to score about the same.

Okay, so what you're arguing was that Howard and Al Jefferson are going to offset each other offensively? Because I was under the impression that you were arguing that Al Jefferson has an easy time scoring on Howard, or he outright 'wins' the matchup, by contributing a larger overall contribution than Howard, or effectively makes it a 'wash' by offsetting each players' contribution.

[Roy H.]

I keep starting to wade neck-deep into the Al Jefferson/Dwight Howard numbers because I think taking the last 5 games is in fact cherry picking, and their career numbers I don't think accurately show you the matchup either.

... says the guy who once tried to use what, two games between Kyrie Irving and Jrue Holiday as proof that Holiday was a Kyrie stopper?

We're talking about 18 games over nine years.  That's not an adequate sample size for you? 

I mean this sincerely, but how does a guy who relies so much upon numbers in his own arguments suddenly disregard them?  Are you allowing bias / prejudice color your perception?

Because, if we took two players, and called them "Player A" and "Player B", rather than "Al Jefferson" and "Dwight Howard", you'd agree that they offset each other offensively.

Heck, even outside of the H2H context, Big Al is a better scorer than Howard.  These H2H numbers aren't anything bizarre.  The only reason why they'd be weird is if you had the pre-conception that Big Al was some sort of horrible defender that Howard would walk all over.  Unfortunately, that's just not reality.

Heck, even Lucky has conceded that H2H, Howard and Big Al are going to score about the same.

Okay, so what you're arguing was that Howard and Al Jefferson are going to offset each other offensively? Because I was under the impression that you were arguing that Al Jefferson has an easy time scoring on Howard, or he outright 'wins' the matchup, by contributing a larger overall contribution than Howard.

Sorry if I gave that impression.

My argument is that Jefferson's offensive contributions equal Howard's offensive contributions, and that Jefferson has historically limited Howard below his career averages.

[Roy H.]

Rose holds a significant advantage over his opposite number, the largest head to head advantage in the series.

I think this is probably true.  How does this one advantage, though, neutralize the advantage that Deng + Smith + Gordon have over each of their counterparts?

Also, here's how I see the bench, in terms of offense:

Knight > Maynor
Neal ≥ Bellinelli or Gordon
Bullock or Jerebko = Fields
Hansborough or Smith ≥ Haslem
Kaman ≥ Mahinmi

So, when looking at the top ten rotation spots for OKC, I see *one* area where they have a clear advantage.  I see four such positions of strength for Dallas (Deng, Smith, Gordon, Knight), and then several that are neutral or slightly in Dallas' favor.

To me, that's a 4-1 series for the Mavs.

[Lucky17]

Rose holds a significant advantage over his opposite number, the largest head to head advantage in the series.

I think this is probably true.  How does this one advantage, though, neutralize the advantage that Deng + Smith + Gordon have over each of their counterparts?

I really do think that the OKC backcourt defense is going to seriously disrupt Dallas' half court set. Steve Nash won't be able to penetrate and dish or kick to those other guys for open looks. Instead, there's going to be a reliance on the other three to put the ball on the deck and create scoring opportunities for themselves, or share and move the ball in an attempt to find the gaps in the OKC perimeter defense.

I think Gordon becomes a complete non-factor in this series against Shumpert.

Josh Smith isn't known for being efficient or refraining from hoisting long twos and other ill-advised shots.

Deng is going to have to work his matchup against Budinger to the fullest extent for the Mavs to win this series. And if the focus of the Dallas offense is going to be to try to exploit the Deng-Budinger matchup, how many touches will Al really get in order to match Howard on the scoreboard?

As with the previous series, OKC is going to rely on elite team defense to force its opponents to beat them with the jump shot. I like our chances.

[Lucky17]

Rose holds a significant advantage over his opposite number, the largest head to head advantage in the series.

I think this is probably true.  How does this one advantage, though, neutralize the advantage that Deng + Smith + Gordon have over each of their counterparts?

Also, here's how I see the bench, in terms of offense:

Knight > Maynor
Neal ≥ Bellinelli or Gordon
Bullock or Jerebko = Fields
Hansborough or Smith ≥ Haslem
Kaman ≥ Mahinmi

So, when looking at the top ten rotation spots for OKC, I see *one* area where they have a clear advantage.  I see four such positions of strength for Dallas (Deng, Smith, Gordon, Knight), and then several that are neutral or slightly in Dallas' favor.

To me, that's a 4-1 series for the Mavs.

Knight is a shooting guard in a PG's body, much like Neal. Ask Zach Lowe about Knight's decision-making running an offense (which does not bode well for Dallas when Nash needs a breather). Detroit's offense was a net -124 last season with Knight running the show. Maynor at least kept things on an even keel last season as PG in OKC.

Look at the career numbers and past seasons for Belinelli and Gordon compared to Neal, and then flip that > to a <. Plus, San Antonio let Neal go because they landed Belinelli in free agency.

Bullock, Jerebko, Fields: no real reason to mention any of these guys.

Hansbrough can't hit a shot that is more than 3 feet from the rim.

http://www.hoopdata.com/player.aspx?name=Tyler%20Hansbrough

Throughout his career, Haslem has demonstrated the ability to hit mid-range jumpers when left open. I'm not sure if Jason Smith makes the floor in this series either.

I'll concede Kaman has more offensive game than Mahinmi at this point in their careers. How many minutes during this series can we expect the two of them to match up head to head?

[BleedGreen1989]

So we're suddenly assuming Eric Gordan is going to be healthy? I really don't understand the perception of injuries in the CB draft.

I think the Rose vs Nash match up is entirely too much to overcome.

[Roy H.]

So we're suddenly assuming Eric Gordan is going to be healthy? I really don't understand the perception of injuries in the CB draft.

I think the Rose vs Nash match up is entirely too much to overcome.

Gordon was healthy the last half of last year, and scored around 17.5 points per game.

It's interesting to me that after other voters basically fixated on one matchup (Rondo vs. Calderon) to knock off your team, that you're now doing the same thing.

[Lucky17]

FG attempts last season:

Eric Gordon: 14, at 40%
Luol Deng: 14.6, at 42.6%
Josh Smith: 15.6, at 46.5%
Al Jefferson: 15.8, at 49.4%

Is it realistic to think that these four guys are going to combine for 60 attempts per game, even before we factor in the defensive pressure that OKC's backcourt will face in Rose/Shumpert?

For the sake of comparison, Joe Johnson, Brandon Jennings, and Carmelo Anthony combined for about 52 attempts last season. Add Andrei Kirilenko: 61; add Andrew Bynum instead: 65.

[BleedGreen1989]

So we're suddenly assuming Eric Gordan is going to be healthy? I really don't understand the perception of injuries in the CB draft.

I think the Rose vs Nash match up is entirely too much to overcome.

Gordon was healthy the last half of last year, and scored around 17.5 points per game.

It's interesting to me that after other voters basically fixated on one matchup (Rondo vs. Calderon) to knock off your team, that you're now doing the same thing.

Well I figure Gordon's injury history is not something I would rely on too much. Oh well, each his own.

Also assumed you'd bring up that point. It's a different scenario with different rosters so I won't get into it.