2013 CB Draft: Northwest Division Press Conferences

[Lucky17]

Andrew Bogut's opportunities close-in have dipped a bit over the last several years.

http://www.hoopdata.com/player.aspx?name=Andrew%20Bogut

Per 30 minutes, he's getting about 4 shots a game at the rim. And this is where he's most effective, as his numbers further out indicate.

[Lucky17]

Wow. Last season, when he was paired with another ball dominant player (Jennings), Monta Ellis' eFG% on jump shots was 0.379.

The prior season, next to Stephen Curry, it was 0.429. That was actually a pretty good year for Monta (his career best was 0.436).

For sake of comparison, Mo Williams' eFG% on jumpers during that 2008-09 season: 0.545. Mario Chalmers, last season, hit jumpers at an eFG% of 0.535.

All stats via 82games.com.

Adding to this, Ellis shot just 38.5% on spot-up jumpers last season. I really don't like his fit alongside Lebron on the offensive end.

On paper, he seems like he'd be a decent counterpart to Bron. A poor man's Wade.

If he settles for jumpers, he's playing right into the defense's hands.

[Fafnir]

Andrew Bogut's opportunities close-in have dipped a bit over the last several years.

http://www.hoopdata.com/player.aspx?name=Andrew%20Bogut

Per 30 minutes, he's getting about 4 shots a game at the rim. And this is where he's most effective, as his numbers further out indicate.

Right as his post game declined with his health.

I don't see him as a threat with a face up dribble game, not that conceding a jumper in 15-18 foot range necessarily opens driving lanes anyways. He's not an explosive athlete to exploit that.

[rondoallaturca]

On paper, he seems like he'd be a decent counterpart to Bron. A poor man's Wade.

If he settles for jumpers, he's playing right into the defense's hands.

Wade's improved his mid-range game significantly in recent years - it was arguably one of his most effective weapons last poseason. This is a big reason why he's able to coexist with Lebron. I'm not sure Ellis has the character to change his game like Wade did though.

[Lucky17]

So, I found this article while looking at Bogut:

http://hangtime.blogs.nba.com/2013/05/09/andrew-bogut-considered-retirement/

I loved this part at the end (re: Monta):

[Mark] Jackson was asked about the trade Thursday, in the context that moving Ellis created a clear path for Klay Thompson to blossom at shooting guard along with adding Bogut.

“It helped change the culture,” Jackson said. “Obviously, it was easier to pull the trigger because we knew what we had in Klay and it was time for him to be a starting two-guard. And he does everything right.”

How did the deal change the culture?

Jackson paused four seconds.

“It helped change the culture,” he finally said.

Anything specific?

“You know.”

He meant addition by subtracting Ellis. Jackson said it without saying it.

[Yoki_IsTheName]

Andrew Bogut's opportunities close-in have dipped a bit over the last several years.

http://www.hoopdata.com/player.aspx?name=Andrew%20Bogut

Per 30 minutes, he's getting about 4 shots a game at the rim. And this is where he's most effective, as his numbers further out indicate.

Right as his post game declined with his health.

I don't see him as a threat with a face up dribble game, not that conceding a jumper in 15-18 foot range necessarily opens driving lanes anyways. He's not an explosive athlete to exploit that.

And yet GSW ran that high pick and roll with him a lot of times.

Just look at this clip and lets break down what I am really trying to point out.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sz8HDMhuc9I

1. 0:19 in the video, he had a clear lane. He drove and finished. That will happen if you dont commit to him close enough and give him a driving lane.

2. 0:28 in which Barnes' defender had to commit to Bogut, opening up a passing lane and an easy finish. Now I know, you're going to tell me Monroe doesnt park that far. True, but still wont stop defenders in thinking about committing to Bogut or #1 will happen all over again. And that's all Bogut needs. A little space to put in a perfect pass, something we all agree he's good at. High pick and roll

3. 0:36, it's not like Klay shot it from 10 feet, there is a ton of traffic in that lane, but he somehow got the offensive rebound. Monroe and his post work would be the same. Not only Bogut is an offensive board threat, you double on Monroe, he can find Bogut in the paint for an easy shot. And it's not like Monroe cant finish in heavy traffic too. Watch the vids from my presser. High pick and roll.

4. 1:01, Bogut once again able to co-exist on a congested lane, this time Barnes is helping the Nuggets clog the paint with his positioning, and yet Bogut found space to work. Who's to say Monroe can't find Bogut like Jack did? Still coming from the high pick and roll


5. 1:09, Bogut high pick and roll finding a cutting Thompson. Shooters around them to spread the floor. Now exchange Thompson with Monroe sealing his position downlow and you'd get pretty much the same result. Unless there's disput about Monroe's ability to position himself on the post. See how far McGee is, if he gets close to Monroe down low, all Bogut has to do is dribble, drag McGee to him, opening up the lane for Greg for the low post shot.

Fact is, co-existing is not a problem and is being overblown. Bogut, even with the lack of a mid range shot plays high pick and roll so well. He is a threat off the dribble and a good passer. Congesting the lanes won't prevent Bogut from being effective with Monroe on the floor, together. And then, add his defensive presence, he can also hide Monroe's deficiencies. And as he's so vocal on the court, it would only help Greg to be a better team defender.

One more vid to prove a point.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E-C2hkSdqhk
0:36 - 0:52, you see where David Lee is parked on both possessions? That's what Monroe's role is going to be on Bogut high Pick and Rolls. Bogut got an open lane, defense collapses on him, drop pass to Lee (in this case will be Monroe) for the easy 2. Defense stays on Monroe, he finishes.

More proof.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9mq2hKok0N0
0:08, Bogut puts it on the floor after being given a free lane, drops the floater

1:15, see what happens when Nene collapsed on Bogut and look at what Andrew does. And where is David Lee again, not mid range I'm pretty sure.

[rondoallaturca]

TP for Yoki for going out and finding all these videos and breaking them down. I must say that a lot of people here seem to be severely underrating Bogut. Injuries are a BIG issue with him, but when healthy he's a very elite center. Denver just better pray that Bogut and Varejo can both stay healthy when they're needed the most.

[fairweatherfan]

Denver just better pray that Bogut and Varejo can both stay healthy when they're needed the most.

The problem with this kind of format is that if most voters think they'll be hurt, then for all intents and purposes they'll be hurt.  I'm gonna run into a similar problem tomorrow.

[Yoki_IsTheName]

Denver just better pray that Bogut and Varejo can both stay healthy when they're needed the most.

The problem with this kind of format is that if most voters think they'll be hurt, then for all intents and purposes they'll be hurt.  I'm gonna run into a similar problem tomorrow.

Then whoever has Kyrie Irving, Andrew Bynum, Greg Oden, Eric Gordon, Dwyane Wade, Danny Granger, Pau Gasol, Steph Curry, and Manu Ginobili better pray for health to.

To some extend, Lakers better pray for Dirk as well, as he's getting old and he's starting to miss some games.

They need to be healthy when we need them the most, isn't that what Denver's great depth is about? The team can manage the minutes, without losing production. Lessening the risk of injuries as they are on the court less, but not giving up anything on defensive impact, rebounding and talent.

[rondoallaturca]

Then whoever has Kyrie Irving, Andrew Bynum, Greg Oden, Eric Gordon, Dwyane Wade, Danny Granger, Pau Gasol, Steph Curry, and Manu Ginobili better pray for health to.

To some extend, Lakers better pray for Dirk as well, as he's getting old and he's starting to miss some games.

The problem is that assuming Dirk will miss some games just because he's old is a far more baseless assumption than a center who has played in all 82 games just once (his rookie year), and has missed 46% of his games since. IIRC, didn't he suffer one of his major injuries while rehabbing from another? I remember reading something along the lines and thought it was the silliest thing ever.

[fairweatherfan]

Denver just better pray that Bogut and Varejo can both stay healthy when they're needed the most.

The problem with this kind of format is that if most voters think they'll be hurt, then for all intents and purposes they'll be hurt.  I'm gonna run into a similar problem tomorrow.

Then whoever has Kyrie Irving, Andrew Bynum, Greg Oden, Eric Gordon, Dwyane Wade, Danny Granger, Pau Gasol, Steph Curry, and Manu Ginobili better pray for health to.

To some extend, Lakers better pray for Dirk as well, as he's getting old and he's starting to miss some games.

I didn't see Amar'e's name!  <fist pump>

...but that's the nature of the game, and one of the (few) things I don't really like about it.  Voters will dock teams for having some of the players on the list, and ignore injury concerns for others.  And even though I think posters here generally have great basketball knowledge, it's usually pretty hard to predict who'll get hurt and who won't in a given season.

On the other hand I'm not sure how you could fix it, short of just assuming everyone's in tip-top shape all year, which is also a bad approach.  Durability is part of the game, even if predicting it can be a crapshoot.

[Yoki_IsTheName]

Then whoever has Kyrie Irving, Andrew Bynum, Greg Oden, Eric Gordon, Dwyane Wade, Danny Granger, Pau Gasol, Steph Curry, and Manu Ginobili better pray for health to.

To some extend, Lakers better pray for Dirk as well, as he's getting old and he's starting to miss some games.

The problem is that assuming Dirk will miss some games just because he's old is a far more baseless assumption than a center who has played in all 82 games just once (his rookie year), and has missed 46% of his games since. IIRC, didn't he suffer one of his major injuries while rehabbing from another? I remember reading something along the lines and thought it was the silliest thing ever.

The problem here is injuries are injuries. Regardless of who it is or when the injury happens, if anyone is going to assume that a player who missed games before will miss games this year, then it should work on anyone. We can't be pulling for injuries and not have it as a factor for our own team.

Besides, Dirk has more lingering knee issues than Bogut who had two season ending injuries but not on the same body parts. And just because Dirk played a lot of games doesnt mean he's not hurt. How many times did we hear that Dirk has a sore knee or a sore that during his career? Maybe it's starting to take it's toll? I mean if it's possible that Bogut miss some games, it's also possible that Dirk would start to miss some from now own.

And Denver is fine without Bogut, as Varejao can take over. Can we say the same about the Lakers without Dirk?

[rondoallaturca]

The problem here is injuries are injuries. Regardless of who it is or when the injury happens, if anyone is going to assume that a player who missed games before will miss games this year, then it should work on anyone. We can't be pulling for injuries and not have it as a factor for our own team.

Besides, Dirk has more lingering knee issues than Bogut who had two season ending injuries but not on the same body parts. And just because Dirk played a lot of games doesnt mean he's not hurt. How many times did we hear that Dirk has a sore knee or a sore that during his career? Maybe it's starting to take it's toll? I mean if it's possible that Bogut miss some games, it's also possible that Dirk would start to miss some from now own.

And Denver is fine without Bogut, can we say the same about the Lakers without Dirk?

Meh, I still feel like saying Dirk might miss more time just because the mileage is piling up is completely different, especially when we're talking about a guy whose character is in the mold of Duncan and Kobe. Duncan's been chugging along just fine and Kobe only just showed that he isn't immortal - and even still, a lot of people are saying Kobe will be back as good as ever, and some even wouldn't be surprised to see Kobe return as quickly as opening night.

Injuries are a really arbitrary thing and that's why I only make sure to apply it to guys who have shown a repeated tendency to miss games. Varejao has only played in 65% of available games. I already showed Bogut's dismal attendance record. Bynum, Gordon, and Oden are some others that have missed an egregious amount of games.

Otherwise, I definitely make sure to not make injuries an overriding factor. I'm not going to dock Cleveland for having Wallace/KG. I'm not going to dock Boston for Rubio. I'm not going to dock Boston for Pau. And so on...

[nickagneta]

Then whoever has Kyrie Irving, Andrew Bynum, Greg Oden, Eric Gordon, Dwyane Wade, Danny Granger, Pau Gasol, Steph Curry, and Manu Ginobili better pray for health to.

To some extend, Lakers better pray for Dirk as well, as he's getting old and he's starting to miss some games.

The problem is that assuming Dirk will miss some games just because he's old is a far more baseless assumption than a center who has played in all 82 games just once (his rookie year), and has missed 46% of his games since. IIRC, didn't he suffer one of his major injuries while rehabbing from another? I remember reading something along the lines and thought it was the silliest thing ever.

The problem here is injuries are injuries. Regardless of who it is or when the injury happens, if anyone is going to assume that a player who missed games before will miss games this year, then it should work on anyone. We can't be pulling for injuries and not have it as a factor for our own team.

Besides, Dirk has more lingering knee issues than Bogut who had two season ending injuries but not on the same body parts. And just because Dirk played a lot of games doesnt mean he's not hurt. How many times did we hear that Dirk has a sore knee or a sore that during his career? Maybe it's starting to take it's toll? I mean if it's possible that Bogut miss some games, it's also possible that Dirk would start to miss some from now own.

And Denver is fine without Bogut, as Varejao can take over. Can we say the same about the Lakers without Dirk?

Players with histories of injuries get severely docked in my book. Bynum, Bogut, Varejao, Amare, Oden, Marquis Daniels, Gallinari, etc, are players with several years of major amounts of missed games. I dock them

Players like Rondo, Rose, Westbrook, Brandon Rush, Sullinger, etc that are younger and are just exhibiting their first major injury get docked less but I expect them to have a less than awesome year because they are recovering from major injury.

Players like Shumpert, Curry, and others that come back from injuries and over a year have proven themselves back in top shape and game, I grade as completely healthy.

That's just me. others might do it different. but I think injuries have to be factored as do the possibility of slight to major game degradation of older players. Sure, Duncan and Kobe have been going against that grain for years but the vast majority of players start hitting 34-35 and I think you have to start figuring some decline in game if ever so little.

Kobe is in a ballpark all his own. I am convinced he is taking illegal medications to heal faster and he is already a freak of nature. It would not surprise me to see him come back with an extraordinary year.

[McHales Pits]

The Minnesota Timberwolves have officially released the 2013 CB Draft Official Press Conference on Page 1 of this thread. Additional information may be added over the course of the day as I have more time.

I am now open to receive questions.

Thank you-

-McHP