Ray Allen's three point shooting

[jdpapa3]

I agree that the offensive flow is a lot worse this year. He is getting almost 1.5 less attempts from 3 pt land per game in the same amount of minutes and with a higher pace. He's not getting the same amount of wide open looks. His amount of guarded 3's last year was a good % lower than this year.

I think a major cause of this is Pierce's dropoff in production from 10-23 feet. Teams don't have to focus on Pierce as much as in the past and are able to keep their resources on the perimeter. Also, the Celtics have no consistent post threat.

[BballTim]

I agree that the offensive flow is a lot worse this year. He is getting almost 1.5 less attempts from 3 pt land per game in the same amount of minutes and with a higher pace. He's not getting the same amount of wide open looks. His amount of guarded 3's last year was a good % lower than this year.

I think a major cause of this is Pierce's dropoff in production from 10-23 feet. Teams don't have to focus on Pierce as much as in the past and are able to keep their resources on the perimeter. Also, the Celtics have no consistent post threat.

  I think that playing this way will make him more effective in the playoffs. Teams last year just rushed him when he got the ball outside the three point line and he'd give it up. If he drove past them and pulled up for a two then they wouldn't rush him quite so quick.

[PLamb]

That team's strengths in 2007-08 in KG and Pierce being better than this year's versions are offset by Rondo and Perk being better than that year

Also Rasheed was way more talented and a better weapon off the bench than anything they had that year

Add to that the improvement in Baby's offensive game, Nate's game, which is so superior to Eddie House circa 2007-08 it isn't funny(maybe you are confusing Eddie 2007-08 with Eddie 2008-09 who played much better), Finley and the improved play of Tony Allen and I can't see where this team doesn't have more talented weapons than that one

That team may have played better together as a unit but from top to bottom this year's team has overall better offensive weapons and talent

[BballTim]

That team's strengths in 2007-08 in KG and Pierce being better than this year's versions are offset by Rondo and Perk being better than that year

  When KG and Paul are reasonably healthy then that's true. When they aren't it isn't, and they haven't been healthy that much. Paul's had a little over 2 good months total, and KG's had about half that. And they haven't always had those healthy games at the same time. So for the bulk of the season your statement hasn't been true.

Also Rasheed was way more talented and a better weapon off the bench than anything they had that year

  More talented? Probably. A better weapon? No. He's getting 2 more points a game than Posey did on 3 more shots. They're both mainly stretching the floor while they're out there, and Posey's outside shooting was much better.

Add to that the improvement in Baby's offensive game, Nate's game, which is so superior to Eddie House circa 2007-08 it isn't funny(maybe you are confusing Eddie 2007-08 with Eddie 2008-09 who played much better), Finley and the improved play of Tony Allen and I can't see where this team doesn't have more talented weapons than that one

  I'm sure this will come as a shock to you, but Finley and Nate weren't on the team for most of the year. How much did Nate help Ray's shooting in November? Did Finley keep defenses from keying on Ray in January?

That team may have played better together as a unit but from top to bottom this year's team has overall better offensive weapons and talent

  If you look at the average contribution from KG and Paul (including the games they missed), I don't think you can make that statement.

[Chief]

That team's strengths in 2007-08 in KG and Pierce being better than this year's versions are offset by Rondo and Perk being better than that year

Also Rasheed was way more talented and a better weapon off the bench than anything they had that year

Add to that the improvement in Baby's offensive game, Nate's game, which is so superior to Eddie House circa 2007-08 it isn't funny(maybe you are confusing Eddie 2007-08 with Eddie 2008-09 who played much better), Finley and the improved play of Tony Allen and I can't see where this team doesn't have more talented weapons than that one

That team may have played better together as a unit but from top to bottom this year's team has overall better offensive weapons and talent

I would not call what I've seen an improvement. I appreciate your "forever an optimist outlook" but on this, I do not agree.

[rayallen1934]

His three point shooting hasnt been great at all this year. But he still makes the clutch ones.

Hes 34, the same type of thread can be made for Paul Pierce who is declining terribly. Ray Is 3 years older but clearly in better shape and takes care of his body probably better than anyone in the NBA.

I think the minutes kill Ray Allens legs, Im almost 100% sure his minutes contribute to his low % from the 3,

But despite this , he still shooting better than Paul Pierce, who seems like he cant make more 2 point baskets than 3 point baskets these days.

I would be worired more about Pierce's staggering change in his game, than Ray Allen's off shooting from 3.  Ray Allen's three point shot will come, and hopefully it comes during the playoffs.

[Roy Hobbs]

I wanted to revisit this thread to note how Ray has really turned his season around.

As of right now, Ray's 3PT% stands at 36.3%, still below his career average, but a good mark.  Post All-Star break, he's shooting at 40.7% from three, which is about what he shot last year overall.

More importantly, Ray's efficiency is still amazing.  His 47.5% FG% is his third best ever, his eFG% of .550 is his fourth best ever (and better than his first year in Boston), and his TS% of .598 is tied for his third best year ever.  This, despite legitimately slumping for part of the season.

I bring this up because people are inevitably going to talk about Ray's "down year" when discussing whether to re-sign him this off-season.  There may be reasons not to bring him back, but the myth that he's fallen off a cliff in terms of play shouldn't be one of them.

[SamuelAdams]

2560 - 2437 = 123

Keep Shooting Ray !!!

[Fafnir]

He's still a very efficient shooter, his overall offensive game has still declined. He needs a lot more help to get open. His rebounding and defense have also naturally declined.

I really don't know what to do with Ray this offseason.

[Drucci]

I wanted to revisit this thread to note how Ray has really turned his season around.

As of right now, Ray's 3PT% stands at 36.3%, still below his career average, but a good mark.  Post All-Star break, he's shooting at 40.7% from three, which is about what he shot last year overall.

More importantly, Ray's efficiency is still amazing.  His 47.5% FG% is his third best ever, his eFG% of .550 is his fourth best ever (and better than his first year in Boston), and his TS% of .598 is tied for his third best year ever.  This, despite legitimately slumping for part of the season.

I bring this up because people are inevitably going to talk about Ray's "down year" when discussing whether to re-sign him this off-season.  There may be reasons not to bring him back, but the myth that he's fallen off a cliff in terms of play shouldn't be one of them.

Good idea to revisit the thread, and thanks for the updates!

As many (or not many?) of us expected, Ray did turn up his shooting at some point in the season like he usually does.

I still think that Ray's shot is going to get more and more streaky as he gets older, we've seen a lot of games this season where Ray was either unstoppable from three or couldn't hit anyting from long distance. It's usually one or the other but rarely a more balanced performance now.

Anyway, I knew that Ray's shooting percentage was up since the Break but not up by that much, great to see. Let's hope he keeps it up in the playoffs!

PS : quite funny to see that Ray's production in terms of efficiency seems to go higher every season since he's been a Celtic, uh? I know he came off major ankle surgeries when he first came to Boston but still, you would imagine his production would drop as he gets older.

[nickagneta]

I still say this is the start of a decline in his range. I have defended Ray's shooting overall and think he is still a deadly shooter but his accuracy with range is definitely declining. Without the last two games of hot shooting, I doubt we would be revisiting this thread.

He's just very streaky this year with his three point shot which he never really was before. He just finished going 9 for 15 over the last two games. But before these last two games, in the two weeks previous over a span of 6 games he was 6 for 26(23%) and hadn't hit a three pointer in three straight games. That's very un-Ray like.

But it is what he has been all year. A few super strong games of shooting the three and then an extended period of bad shooting. There's just been very little sustained consistency like we have seen in other year's throughout his career where he will go on a month or two run of 45% shooting from three and be close to 40-50% almost every game seemingly with just the odd bad game here or there. This year it seems much the opposite.

All that said, he's a deadly shooter and worth a two year $15 million contract and if Danny can get the second year only partially guaranteed he would be smart.

[ManUp]

I still say this is the start of a decline in his range. I have defended Ray's shooting overall and think he is still a deadly shooter but his accuracy with range is definitely declining. Without the last two games of hot shooting, I doubt we would be revisiting this thread.

He's just very streaky this year with his three point shot which he never really was before. He just finished going 9 for 15 over the last two games. But before these last two games, in the two weeks previous over a span of 6 games he was 6 for 26(23%) and hadn't hit a three pointer in three straight games. That's very un-Ray like.

But it is what he has been all year. A few super strong games of shooting the three and then an extended period of bad shooting. There's just been very little sustained consistency like we have seen in other year's throughout his career where he will go on a month or two run of 45% shooting from three and be close to 40-50% almost every game seemingly with just the odd bad game here or there. This year it seems much the opposite.

All that said, he's a deadly shooter and worth a two year $15 million contract and if Danny can get the second year only partially guaranteed he would be smart.

+1

Ray should be held to a higher standard then most shooters. It used to be that open 3 point shots were like layups for Ray. These month long cold streaks are something totally new to him. Back in Ray's prime he'd be pushing for 45% from 3 for the season with the open looks he gets here in Boston.

[hwangjini_1]

First, I think that Ray's shooting has been off this year and it could be a sign of age catching up to him, but a few weeks of hot shooting will bring up his average to a more respectable number (although still off from his career average).

Sorry to mix sports, but here are Kevin Youkilis' batting averages:

2007 - Pre All-Star .328, Post All-Star .238, Season .288
2008 - Pre All-Star .314, Post All-Star .310, Season .312
2009 - Pre All-Star .298, Post All-Star .314, Season .305

From this we can see a few things:
1) Only in 2008 was his average at any point in time consistent with his historic average
2) Sometimes he is on a tear, other times he stinks, but he always averages out to be decent
3) Sometimes he gets hot in the beginning of the season, sometimes at the end.

I think you could look at any shooter in the NBA and find similar patterns.

Ray Allen has always had hot months and cold months, but has historically been very consistent (and good).  Without having watched all his games in Milwaukee and Seattle, it is easy to just look at his season average and not realize that there were months where he was way way off (up or down) from that average.

Regression to the mean!

interesting counter argument, but i would still have a couple of questions before i would buy into it.

first, "regression to the mean," is it the best concept to invoke here? or, is it a questionable assumption that may mislead us in our attempt to predict ray's performance?

i know of no athlete whose performance deteriorates due to age, but then "regresses to the mean" for any length of time. (and even if a few exist, their small numbers confirm my doubts since the majority would push more towards the opposite.)

instead, it seems that any uptick in performances in later age is, by definition, an outlier and that the "mean" (that is, the mean of the player's career performance to date) being put into play is an questionable standard to predict future performance.

indeed, one could make a stronger case that deteriorating stats is regression to a mean...the mean of aging athletes, and that such a standard is more informative than using a player's earlier stats as our standard.

second, you provide some interesting stats on youks, showing his in seasons splits. fine, but that does not address the point the EVEN WITH SUCH STREAKS AND SWINGS ray allen's SEASON shooting percentage is his poorest ever.

and when we factor in that youks is in his prime playing years and allen is beyond those prime playing years, perhaps youks is not a good example.

instead, might not the past season's performance by big papi be more indicative of ray's future?

do many folks expect papi this season to "regress to the mean" and put up lines of .300+, 30+ HR, 100+ RBI? as much as i would love to see it, i would not put my money on it.

so.....good post and thank you for it!!! but i am unconvinced.  

[BballTim]

I wanted to revisit this thread to note how Ray has really turned his season around.

As of right now, Ray's 3PT% stands at 36.3%, still below his career average, but a good mark.  Post All-Star break, he's shooting at 40.7% from three, which is about what he shot last year overall.

More importantly, Ray's efficiency is still amazing.  His 47.5% FG% is his third best ever, his eFG% of .550 is his fourth best ever (and better than his first year in Boston), and his TS% of .598 is tied for his third best year ever.  This, despite legitimately slumping for part of the season.

I bring this up because people are inevitably going to talk about Ray's "down year" when discussing whether to re-sign him this off-season.  There may be reasons not to bring him back, but the myth that he's fallen off a cliff in terms of play shouldn't be one of them.

  I'm more worried about his defense, but that's a matchup thing. I don't expect to see Joe Johnson in the playoffs. I think that a good scenario might be to sign a good sg/sf with the MLE and bring Ray back at a reduced rate.