If This Team Doesn't Make It Past The First Round, What Should Ainge Do?

[Tr1boy]

Triple teaming someone implies 2 players wide open, right?

That's happening the last two weeks and we are watching the result of this.

IT4 might be too selfish with the ball. Gotta learn to distribute it especially in those circumstances!

Right, but what happens when no one else can make a shot despite that "great distribution". Then what?

That's what pretty much happens.

I disagree.   There isn't great distribution.  IT jacks up hero ball 3s with no one in position to rebound or drives into the lane and throws up junk hoping for a foul.  His problem is with big mobile players.  He blows by slower less mobile players but when he plays against size that can stay with him he literally hits a wall.  When he drives everyone stands still so he can remember where they were in case he decides to pass because IT is too short to see over the defenders, so if anybody cuts to the basket or moves to an open spot for a mid range or a 3 IT wont know where they are. IT has been so fixated on being the hero lately that he rarely passes when he drives, so when he does the players are taken by surprise and react slowly giving the defense time to recover.  Maybe now that his scoring streak is over he'll pass more but I doubt it. 

There are a lot of people that have gotten flamed for criticizing IT all year but really games like last night show why people are critical.   I would gladly have IT hogging the ball off the bench to the tune of 20+ a game but not on the court during crunch time.  I concede that at this time we really only have IT as a viable closing option, but JB is starting to figure things out and will be a force at the end of games by this time next year, if not sooner.  Also, Smart is starting to get his offensive game on par with his defensive game.  Really over the last 12 or so games he has been our best player.  Come this time next year I bet most people on this blog would prefer to have 6'6 Ball or 6'5 Fultz closing out the game instead of IT.

There is literally nothing in this post I agree with.

The fact that there are no other reliable crunch-time scorers on this team - Brown? WHAHAHA - is hardly Thomas' fault.

You think Ainge pursues Butler and George in a vacuum?

Good grief. The Thomas hate on this board just hit a new low.

Good post. TP

One thing to add to your disagreements
 
IT isn't ball hogging simply because he takes a lot of shots. Layups in the paint are good shots, pull up 3's when a defender goes under a screen is a good shot. Don't confuse hogging the ball with taking a lot of good shots.

When IT goes up against 2 defenders or shoots those quick and wild transition 3s , there are always better shot options

[positivitize]

Draft an all-star. Next question.

Seriously. If, by the worst luck possible, we pick 4th, Johnathan Isaac is a better Brandon Ingram. If we pick 1, we take Fultz, 2, we take either Jackson or Ball, 3 we take Jackson, or 4 we take Isaac. Either way we are stacked with talent going forward with Smart, Brown, 17 pick, and maybe Zizic. We should not be angling to build around Horford/IT. We should be thanking them for giving us watchable basketball while we plan for our next championship via the youth movement.

[86MaxwellSmart]

Hire a new defense coach.

[PhoSita]

I don't think what happens in the playoffs will matter that much.

Here's why: over the last year I've become convinced that "win now vs. draft" is a false choice, and that Danny isn't pursuing either one, and what's more, will not go "all in" on either strategy for the next 2-3 years.

What he is doing, and I've said this before, is build a *winning culture*. He hired a coach for the long term, rather than a short-term guy.

He's worked hard to build a team identity, and passed on guys (like Cousins) who may be poor fits.

He's held on to our draft picks for the most part, assembling a slew of younger guys and lottery picks rather than trading them all for stars.

So, to the frustration of many here, we have a 50-win team with a really bad shot at a championship and maybe 2-3 more years of peak play from its core, as well as some intriguing high picks and prospects (Brown, Smart, BKN, Zizic etc.) who probably won't peak for 3-4 years.

Why? Well, it comes back to culture. Those younger guys are all spending time in the locker room with professional, high-level vets, day in and day out (Crowder, Horford, IT, Bradley). They are playing on the court and learning the game from excellent role models who play the game the right way.

They are getting a taste of the playoffs every year, and seeing what it takes to make a deep run (whether they make it, or just lose to the teams who do it).

And so, in 3-4 years we might have a young core of 4-5 players, two of whom are real stars, and all of whom have developed in a winning, professional, stable system. I think that will help a LOT. Think of Kawhi Leonard's development. Think of how guys blossom in the Patriots system.

And contrast it with Philly. They have young talent that's done little except lose at this level. There are no veteran role models. They won't know what the playoffs are like. I don't think it's a coincidence that many of those guys have failed to live up to their lofty draft projections.

I'm sure I'll be accused of rationalizing what seems to be a frustrating, middle-of-the-road strategy by Ainge. But I see method to it, and I think almost every move he's made over the last 3-4 years fits with that strategy.

So long story short, I don't see the playoff outcome this year mattering too much. We know the limitations of this team and so does Danny. That won't change depending on whether we get hot or go cold for 2-3 games in April or May.

Good points all.

That said, I think that if the team loses rather convincingly in the 1st round (again), let's say in 5 or 6 games despite having home court advantage, that would be a good reason to maybe think twice about giving up major assets for a Jimmy Butler type player.  If the current group isn't enough to be a clear cut second round team, adding Jimmy Butler or Paul George probably isn't majorly improving your fortunes in April or May over the next 2-3 seasons.

In other words, while I agree with you that it's possible to take two roads at once given the embarrassment of assets Ainge has compiled, the fortunes of this current group might dictate whether or not it seems worthwhile to diminish the stockpile of long term assets in order to improve the stock of shorter term assets.

[oldtype]

It's easy to say the playoff results shouldn't influence Ainge's thinking but once we log three consecutive first-round exits it starts becoming a bit of a narrative.  You have to assume that will impact our capability to improve the current team through free agency/trades.

So while it doesn't 100% mean that Ainge should blow it up, I think it will definitely have an influence.

[Bobshot]

Get a rebounder, and take a few lessons from Belichick.

[Moranis]

I don't think what happens in the playoffs will matter that much.

Here's why: over the last year I've become convinced that "win now vs. draft" is a false choice, and that Danny isn't pursuing either one, and what's more, will not go "all in" on either strategy for the next 2-3 years.

What he is doing, and I've said this before, is build a *winning culture*. He hired a coach for the long term, rather than a short-term guy.

He's worked hard to build a team identity, and passed on guys (like Cousins) who may be poor fits.

He's held on to our draft picks for the most part, assembling a slew of younger guys and lottery picks rather than trading them all for stars.

So, to the frustration of many here, we have a 50-win team with a really bad shot at a championship and maybe 2-3 more years of peak play from its core, as well as some intriguing high picks and prospects (Brown, Smart, BKN, Zizic etc.) who probably won't peak for 3-4 years.

Why? Well, it comes back to culture. Those younger guys are all spending time in the locker room with professional, high-level vets, day in and day out (Crowder, Horford, IT, Bradley). They are playing on the court and learning the game from excellent role models who play the game the right way.

They are getting a taste of the playoffs every year, and seeing what it takes to make a deep run (whether they make it, or just lose to the teams who do it).

And so, in 3-4 years we might have a young core of 4-5 players, two of whom are real stars, and all of whom have developed in a winning, professional, stable system. I think that will help a LOT. Think of Kawhi Leonard's development. Think of how guys blossom in the Patriots system.

And contrast it with Philly. They have young talent that's done little except lose at this level. There are no veteran role models. They won't know what the playoffs are like. I don't think it's a coincidence that many of those guys have failed to live up to their lofty draft projections.

I'm sure I'll be accused of rationalizing what seems to be a frustrating, middle-of-the-road strategy by Ainge. But I see method to it, and I think almost every move he's made over the last 3-4 years fits with that strategy.

So long story short, I don't see the playoff outcome this year mattering too much. We know the limitations of this team and so does Danny. That won't change depending on whether we get hot or go cold for 2-3 games in April or May.

Good points all.

That said, I think that if the team loses rather convincingly in the 1st round (again), let's say in 5 or 6 games despite having home court advantage, that would be a good reason to maybe think twice about giving up major assets for a Jimmy Butler type player.  If the current group isn't enough to be a clear cut second round team, adding Jimmy Butler or Paul George probably isn't majorly improving your fortunes in April or May over the next 2-3 seasons.

In other words, while I agree with you that it's possible to take two roads at once given the embarrassment of assets Ainge has compiled, the fortunes of this current group might dictate whether or not it seems worthwhile to diminish the stockpile of long term assets in order to improve the stock of shorter term assets.

I think that would also signal that Thomas, Bradley, etc. aren't worth extending at big money as well and thus Ainge might actually look to move them.  There is no point paying big money for players that can't even get you out of the 1st round.

[PhoSita]

I doubt it will make sense to pay to keep both Bradley and Isaiah, especially if the team also holds onto Smart and drafts Ball or Fultz.

That said, I think it will probably make sense to re-sign Isaiah, because as Boris said, culture and identity matters, and it will be very, very difficult to replace him.  I think it'll also kind of damage the good vibes around the team if they let Isaiah walk after he turned into a superstar and the heart and soul of the team within a year after they traded for him.

[tankcity!]

Hopefully we land a top 2 pick, and then trade IT for the #3 pick so we can draft Josh Jackson. Ideal scenario Lakers gives us the pick for IT, and then they sign George.

[Moranis]

I doubt it will make sense to pay to keep both Bradley and Isaiah, especially if the team also holds onto Smart and drafts Ball or Fultz.

That said, I think it will probably make sense to re-sign Isaiah, because as Boris said, culture and identity matters, and it will be very, very difficult to replace him.  I think it'll also kind of damage the good vibes around the team if they let Isaiah walk after he turned into a superstar and the heart and soul of the team within a year after they traded for him.

maybe, but how good will the good vibes be if Boston flames out in the 1st round again (and presumably Thomas has a bad series in the process). 

Boston is nearing that cross roads where it has to decide what it wants to be.  You can only have and eat your cake for so long before you run out of cake.  I believe this summer is that point.

[nickagneta]

Ainge should try to do exactly what he's planning on trying to do anyway -- draft a potential superstar and sign or trade for a current star.  That's the goal, and whether we get swept in round 1 or win the title, the goal will be the same.

This is the correct answer. You can close the thread now

[nickagneta]

It's easy to say the playoff results shouldn't influence Ainge's thinking but once we log three consecutive first-round exits it starts becoming a bit of a narrative.  You have to assume that will impact our capability to improve the current team through free agency/trades.

So while it doesn't 100% mean that Ainge should blow it up, I think it will definitely have an influence.

Disagree. Our 1st 1st round exit we shouldn't have even been in the playoffs as Danny was clearly trying to tank but the coach and players didn't let him. We got rolled by a team that has been the best team in the East for 3 years. It was expected.

Last year, we entered the playoffs pretty beat up, lost Bradley in game one and had several players play poorly. We did well to get to 6 games.

If we lose in the first round again, its not a big deal. There are a couple teams here in the East we just don't match up well with and if we lose to one of them, I don't see it as a big deal.

Basically its not a pattern. Its been one year we shouldn't have even been there and got killed. Another year we should have gotten there but were very injured. And one year where, yes, we probably should have gone farther. We will still be one of the youngest teams in the league having our young core gain more and more playoff experience. Sorry, but I see that as a good thing.

[mctyson]

Ainge should try to do exactly what he's planning on trying to do anyway -- draft a potential superstar and sign or trade for a current star.  That's the goal, and whether we get swept in round 1 or win the title, the goal will be the same.

This is the correct answer. You can close the thread now

I am not sure that's so true.  Signing Horford, a 4-time All-Star and the 2nd best free agent on the market to a max contract, was intended to make this team better.  On paper they upgraded over last year's squad.

They are on pace to have slightly more wins.  If they lose in the 1st round to a 6 or 7 seed, how can anyone argue they were actually any better than last year?  You can't.  And they supposedly added a star to last year's team.  Therefore if I am Danny, I am seriously questioning the upside of a Crowder, IT, Bradley nucleus.

But I already think he is questioning the upside of this roster, so yes the playoffs might not have any bearing on his later moves.

[Big333223]

Ainge should try to do exactly what he's planning on trying to do anyway -- draft a potential superstar and sign or trade for a current star.  That's the goal, and whether we get swept in round 1 or win the title, the goal will be the same.

This is the correct answer. You can close the thread now

It would be an incredibly disappointment for this team to lose in the first round but because Ainge and his crew have the team in such great position, this is right. They're positioned to have options and take the best path available to them.

[GreenWarrior]

Triple teaming someone implies 2 players wide open, right?

That's happening the last two weeks and we are watching the result of this.

IT4 might be too selfish with the ball. Gotta learn to distribute it especially in those circumstances!

Right, but what happens when no one else can make a shot despite that "great distribution". Then what?

That's what pretty much happens.

true, but let's not pretend IT is the best passer, and that his height isn't a detriment when it comes to passing out of these triple teams.