Manny to the Dodgers?

[Chris]

it's tough to see the dodgers doing this for a half season rental unless they are getting Jed Lowrie or some other prospect. 

Why not?  Manny could be the difference between them making the playoffs...or even the World Series, and having a very disapointing season.  They need the offensive production he would give.

And they would then be able to get the two draft picks at the end of the year, if they decide to let him walk.

If I were one of these teams fighting for the postseason, I would absolutely be lining up for Manny.  He would be free for the rest of the season, then you have the option to pick up next year or not...and he would immediately be the best hitter on just about any team he was traded to.

I think a lot of people are forgetting just how good Manny is.  Everyone says he is slowing down, but he is still one of the top 3-4 right handed hitters in the game, if not top 2 (along with Pujols).

to be fair, hes not hitting all that much better than this kid, and he'd be a huge laiblity in leftfield.

i'm not saying there not talking about it, i just don't see the dodgers doing it stright up.

Kemp: .293, 12 HR, 57 RBI, .348 obp, .816 ops
Manny: .302, 19 HR, 65 RBI, .400 obp, .932 ops

You are right, they are pretty similar...although I think the difference is greater than the numbers.  Manny is a known commodity, and a guy who has consistently been excellent in the post season.  For a team desperate to try to make the post season, he would be immensely valuable.

But maybe you are right, maybe they wouldn't trade Kemp.  If they include Broxton, they could throw in one of their other prospects, and I think the sox would be very happy.

[Chris]

it's tough to see the dodgers doing this for a half season rental unless they are getting Jed Lowrie or some other prospect. 

Why not?  Manny could be the difference between them making the playoffs...or even the World Series, and having a very disapointing season.  They need the offensive production he would give.

And they would then be able to get the two draft picks at the end of the year, if they decide to let him walk.

If I were one of these teams fighting for the postseason, I would absolutely be lining up for Manny.  He would be free for the rest of the season, then you have the option to pick up next year or not...and he would immediately be the best hitter on just about any team he was traded to.

I think a lot of people are forgetting just how good Manny is.  Everyone says he is slowing down, but he is still one of the top 3-4 right handed hitters in the game, if not top 2 (along with Pujols).

Maybe I'm overvaluing Kemp.  I'm just basing it off stats, at his age on that team... and it seems like he's going to be a star.  If I was LA I wouldn't do it straight up. 

But if they did do that trade then it would have to be a seperate trade involving Dunn or someone of that nature, possibly for coco and a prospect.  Because if you just trade Manny for a young player you are definatly worse this year so it would be contingent on getting a bat elsewhere. 

It depends who you get back.  I think if the sox trade Manny, they will probably also strengthen another position in the process, whether it be SS, C, or relief pitching (my guess).  That may lessen the need to replace Manny's production as a left fielder.

[MBz]

Not sure the Dodgers would actually make this trade.  If the extensions are picked up before the trade then I might see them be willing to do it, but Kemp is one of the best young players in the game.  The guy is a future all-star and will probably turn into a 30-30 guy.

[Chris]

Not sure the Dodgers would actually make this trade.  If the extensions are picked up before the trade then I might see them be willing to do it, but Kemp is one of the best young players in the game.  The guy is a future all-star and will probably turn into a 30-30 guy.

Why would they want the extensions picked up BEFORE the trade?  I think they would much prefer to have the options to either let him walk, or keep him, rather than have that decision made for them.

[MBz]

Do the Dodgers acquire the right to pick up the options?

[Gemini]

Not sure the Dodgers would actually make this trade.  If the extensions are picked up before the trade then I might see them be willing to do it, but Kemp is one of the best young players in the game.  The guy is a future all-star and will probably turn into a 30-30 guy.

Why would they want the extensions picked up BEFORE the trade?  I think they would much prefer to have the options to either let him walk, or keep him, rather than have that decision made for them.

What makes the most sense is for them to decline the options and work out a long term deal. The problem is manny thinks hes work a 4 year 100 million dollar deal and he's off his rocker if he thinks thats what he's worth. I can see a nice 4 year 70 million dollar deal or a 3/55.

[Gemini]

Do the Dodgers acquire the right to pick up the options?

yes, But Manny said that he would agree to a trade only if the team he is going to promise to decline his options.

[Chris]

Do the Dodgers acquire the right to pick up the options?

yes, But Manny said that he would agree to a trade only if the team he is going to promise to decline his options.

Where did you read that?  On ESPN deportes yesterday, he didn't say anything about the option having anything to do with the trade.  It may be the case, but i don't think Manny has said that.

[crownsy]

Do the Dodgers acquire the right to pick up the options?

yes, But Manny said that he would agree to a trade only if the team he is going to promise to decline his options.

Where did you read that?  On ESPN deportes yesterday, he didn't say anything about the option having anything to do with the trade.  It may be the case, but i don't think Manny has said that.

i'm not sure he's come out and said it, but is blatanly obvious. I think his whole angle with that was "trade me to a non-contender who won't pick up my option, i don't care!"

he does not want those 2 options picked up, thats for sure.

[Gemini]

Do the Dodgers acquire the right to pick up the options?

yes, But Manny said that he would agree to a trade only if the team he is going to promise to decline his options.

Where did you read that?  On ESPN deportes yesterday, he didn't say anything about the option having anything to do with the trade.  It may be the case, but i don't think Manny has said that.

ProJo

http://www.projo.com/redsox/content/sp_bb_sean_mcadam28_07-28-08_N6B0RC3_v13.793b30.html

7th paragraph down.

[Evantime34]

Do the Dodgers acquire the right to pick up the options?

yes, But Manny said that he would agree to a trade only if the team he is going to promise to decline his options.

Where did you read that?  On ESPN deportes yesterday, he didn't say anything about the option having anything to do with the trade.  It may be the case, but i don't think Manny has said that.

ProJo

http://www.projo.com/redsox/content/sp_bb_sean_mcadam28_07-28-08_N6B0RC3_v13.793b30.html

7th paragraph down.

That is information that is new to me. IMO that drives his value wayyyyyyyyyyy down unless he is willing to negotiate long term with the new club. If his value is way down there is no way we will get compensated as much as we would with the draft picks. This lessens the chance he is traded.

[Moranis]

trade him to my braves for Texeira

[yall hate]

manny may have said that about declining the option, but more likely he probably would 'settle' for someone picking up both options (which is what he wants us to do).  that would essentially be 40 million guaranteed for two years.  he isnt getting more then that on the open market. 

As for Kemp straight up, no way.  Kemp is a nice player, who has a lot of potential, but he is not a great fielder, and has a very high babip which over in flates his avg.  it would likely have to be kemp and another fairly high prospect (although the people dreaming of Kershaw are dreaming, they wont trade him for just about anything, and Broxton is probably pretty close to being untouchable since he is their closer of the future, or present depending on whether saito ever comes back).  Laroche doesnt make any sense since we already have a 3b (2 in fact)and he is pretty clsoe to MLB ready. 

[Evantime34]

manny may have said that about declining the option, but more likely he probably would 'settle' for someone picking up both options (which is what he wants us to do).  that would essentially be 40 million guaranteed for two years.  he isnt getting more then that on the open market. 

As for Kemp straight up, no way.  Kemp is a nice player, who has a lot of potential, but he is not a great fielder, and has a very high babip which over in flates his avg.  it would likely have to be kemp and another fairly high prospect (although the people dreaming of Kershaw are dreaming, they wont trade him for just about anything, and Broxton is probably pretty close to being untouchable since he is their closer of the future, or present depending on whether saito ever comes back).  Laroche doesnt make any sense since we already have a 3b (2 in fact)and he is pretty clsoe to MLB ready. 

BABIP doesn't inflate the batting average it just means that when he hits it, the ball goes where fielders aren't. Jeter has one of the highest BABIP ever and I would say that is why his average is so high to say that stat inflates his average cheapens what he does.
Other than the new major leaguers I have no idea about their young players. Do you know who could be the other potential high level prospects.

[yall hate]

manny may have said that about declining the option, but more likely he probably would 'settle' for someone picking up both options (which is what he wants us to do).  that would essentially be 40 million guaranteed for two years.  he isnt getting more then that on the open market. 

As for Kemp straight up, no way.  Kemp is a nice player, who has a lot of potential, but he is not a great fielder, and has a very high babip which over in flates his avg.  it would likely have to be kemp and another fairly high prospect (although the people dreaming of Kershaw are dreaming, they wont trade him for just about anything, and Broxton is probably pretty close to being untouchable since he is their closer of the future, or present depending on whether saito ever comes back).  Laroche doesnt make any sense since we already have a 3b (2 in fact)and he is pretty clsoe to MLB ready. 

BABIP doesn't inflate the batting average it just means that when he hits it, the ball goes where fielders aren't. Jeter has one of the highest BABIP ever and I would say that is why his average is so high to say that stat inflates his average cheapens what he does.
Other than the new major leaguers I have no idea about their young players. Do you know who could be the other potential high level prospects.

and when an individual has a very high babip it tends to show that their is some 'luck' involved which is inflating his avg.  Jacoby Elsbury for example, had an extremely high babip last year throughout the season and playoffs.  As such, his avg was very high...which was more a fluke then anything.  This is why I mentioned it for Kemp (who has the 3rd highest babip in all of baseball this year).  It stands to reason that as some of this luck or fluke aspects of his game goes down, his avg will also go down accordingly.

The major league average for BABIP tends to hover between .290 and .300

http://sports.yahoo.com/fantasy/mlb/news?slug=mb-splitsville_022607

Matt Kemp’s average has finally fallen below .300, yet his BABIP is still a very high .381. He’s hitting line drives though at a very good 25.8% clip, so with that and Kemp’s good power/speed skills, we could believe that his current BABIP is actually legit. However, that LD% ranks 3rd in all of baseball, so although it’s certainly possible that he continues at that rate, the percentage play is to bet that it falls, bringing down the BABIP and causing his average to plummet further.

http://www.fantasybaseballgenerals.com/2008/07/leaders-laggards-hitter-babip-2.html


and finally:

Most Dodger fans online are firmly in the first camp. Despite not being given regular playing time and having to force his way into the line-up, Kemp hit .342/.373/.521 as a 22-year-old last year, cementing his status as one of the Dodgers best hitters in the ‘07 campaign. However, that .894 OPS was built on a house of cards - a remarkable .417 batting average on balls in play that was in no way repeatable. Even though BABIP for hitters is indeed influenced by skill, and they do have control over whether their balls in play become hits or not, there are still upper and lower bounds on what is actually skill and what is noise. Even the very best BABIP-skill guys post numbers in the .350 to .360 range over significant samples, so it was pretty obvious that Kemp wasn’t going to be able to sustain that performance.

Indeed, his BABIP has fallen to a still-high .380, and thanks to a simultaneous increase in strikeouts, his overall performance has taken a pretty big step back. In fact, Kemp’s contact rate has become a real problem, as he’s now posting a 30.4% K%. Among hitters who have a K% of 30% or higher, he’s the only one who doesn’t walk at least 10% of the time and he has the lowest Isolated Slugging Percentage of the group as well, coming in at .149.

Striking out a lot is okay if you also draw a bunch of walks and hit for power, but Kemp isn’t off-setting the swings and misses with enough positives, and as such, he’s a below average major league hitter right now. Considering he turns 24 in a few months and doesn’t offer much in the way of defensive value, that’s something of a problem.

So all of that to me says that Kemp is still performing over his head, likely because of his ultrra high Babip.

As for other prospects, they have a ton of pitchers...but their owner doesnt like trading prospects, so this is likely a pipe dream anyway.