Author Topic: NBA Season 2018 - 2019  (Read 202942 times)

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Re: NBA Season 2018 - 2019
« Reply #690 on: December 11, 2018, 09:29:09 PM »

Offline Moranis

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Jimmy butler injured his groin tonight. Note Jimmy is 29. A five year max would sign him through his age 34 season. For comparison deng is 33 now. Noah is 33 now and Rose is 30. Curse of thibs?
Butler has played 15820 regular season minutes and 1627 playoff minutes for 17447 total minutes.  As a comparison, that is less total minutes than Irving has played (17606).  Irving also has a far more extensive injury history.  I don't see too many people worried about signing Irving to a max contract. 

The concern with Thibs isn't so much after the players leave, it is Thibs getting them injured when they are still playing for him.  That is what derailed Noah and Rose.  Deng is on a whole other level when it comes to minutes (over 33000 total - 16th among active players in the regular season) and many of those pre-date Thibs.  He is just worn out.
Theee are definitely people worried about Irving being injury prone. Minutes aside I think the average person is also more worried about playing a player 30+ million at their age 34 seasons compared to their age 32 season. Feels like just being contrarion to argue this...
History has shown minutes, seasons, etc. are more critical to falling off a cliff then actual age (aside from injury of course).  That is why I never pay all that much attention to age as mileage is what matters most when talking about the end of a player's career (that is why I'm really concerned about Horford after this year as his mileage is building up).   

History also shows that while a younger player will likely develop more quickly and has a higher ceiling than an older player, that after 3 or 4 years in the league players are generally what they will be.  They will still improve, but it is almost always gradual and there are almost never huge jumps no matter their age once they hit that point (in the first few seasons huge jumps happen all the time).  That is why I pay less attention to age on players at the end of their rookie contracts as it generally makes no difference at that point.

I'd be curious to know what history you're referring to.
when the players started entering the league earlier, they also started to have their prime periods shift such that their prime starting age was reduced.  I mean look at Anthony and Wade.  Entered the league in the same year and started their decline in the same year, yet Wade is 3 years older than Anthony.  That decline started around year 12 for both players, which if you look at historically is when the vast majority of players really start to decline.  That matches many of the older players like Ewing, Hakeem, Robinson, Pippen, Barkley, etc.  Now 12 years doesn't mean the same amount of minutes for everyone, but by and large most of the players were playing close to full seasons with a lot of minutes and a fair amount of playoff mileage.  Even many of the straight from high school players, like Jermaine O'Neal hold pretty firm in the 12 year range for their decline to start (JO was actually year 11 when he was 28).  Some players that don't get as much wear and tear early on last longer, and some guys buck the trend entirely (like James, maybe Durant who is in year 12 now), but by and large most players begin their decline around 12 seasons in and it really doesn't matter if they are 28 or 35.  Mileage on the body, not physical age, is the main determining factor.

Didn’t jermaine O’Neal have very low minutes his first 3 years or so? I recall him rotting on the bench in Portland. It’s also a rather provocative thought if you think about it like this. If a player plays 36 minutes a game for all 82 games that is about 3000 minutes. Yet there are 325, 000 minutes in a year. This hypothesis is that the 3000 minutes of nba action outweigh the 295k minutes off the court that include practices, running, weight lifting, physical therapy, eating, sleeping, cross training. Olympic and international play etc? Man that’s really hard to believe
12 seasons are 12 seasons.  You can spot check any random player you want (obviously the ones that stayed in the league for a long time) and note that that is when most really show their decline (+- a year or so).   It obviously isn't just minutes, but all of those other things you mention, it takes a toll on your body, but it does all of that whether you are 30 or 35.   You then see a steady decline until they finally call it quits.  Again there are some exceptions (Kareem, the Mailman, Lebron), but by and large 12ish seasons in is the last steady or increasing year, and after that it goes downhill fairly steadily (but generally not all at once). 
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Re: NBA Season 2018 - 2019
« Reply #691 on: December 11, 2018, 10:07:03 PM »

Offline Big333223

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Jimmy butler injured his groin tonight. Note Jimmy is 29. A five year max would sign him through his age 34 season. For comparison deng is 33 now. Noah is 33 now and Rose is 30. Curse of thibs?
Butler has played 15820 regular season minutes and 1627 playoff minutes for 17447 total minutes.  As a comparison, that is less total minutes than Irving has played (17606).  Irving also has a far more extensive injury history.  I don't see too many people worried about signing Irving to a max contract. 

The concern with Thibs isn't so much after the players leave, it is Thibs getting them injured when they are still playing for him.  That is what derailed Noah and Rose.  Deng is on a whole other level when it comes to minutes (over 33000 total - 16th among active players in the regular season) and many of those pre-date Thibs.  He is just worn out.
Theee are definitely people worried about Irving being injury prone. Minutes aside I think the average person is also more worried about playing a player 30+ million at their age 34 seasons compared to their age 32 season. Feels like just being contrarion to argue this...
History has shown minutes, seasons, etc. are more critical to falling off a cliff then actual age (aside from injury of course).  That is why I never pay all that much attention to age as mileage is what matters most when talking about the end of a player's career (that is why I'm really concerned about Horford after this year as his mileage is building up).   

History also shows that while a younger player will likely develop more quickly and has a higher ceiling than an older player, that after 3 or 4 years in the league players are generally what they will be.  They will still improve, but it is almost always gradual and there are almost never huge jumps no matter their age once they hit that point (in the first few seasons huge jumps happen all the time).  That is why I pay less attention to age on players at the end of their rookie contracts as it generally makes no difference at that point.

I'd be curious to know what history you're referring to.
when the players started entering the league earlier, they also started to have their prime periods shift such that their prime starting age was reduced.  I mean look at Anthony and Wade.  Entered the league in the same year and started their decline in the same year, yet Wade is 3 years older than Anthony.  That decline started around year 12 for both players, which if you look at historically is when the vast majority of players really start to decline.  That matches many of the older players like Ewing, Hakeem, Robinson, Pippen, Barkley, etc.  Now 12 years doesn't mean the same amount of minutes for everyone, but by and large most of the players were playing close to full seasons with a lot of minutes and a fair amount of playoff mileage.  Even many of the straight from high school players, like Jermaine O'Neal hold pretty firm in the 12 year range for their decline to start (JO was actually year 11 when he was 28).  Some players that don't get as much wear and tear early on last longer, and some guys buck the trend entirely (like James, maybe Durant who is in year 12 now), but by and large most players begin their decline around 12 seasons in and it really doesn't matter if they are 28 or 35.  Mileage on the body, not physical age, is the main determining factor.

Didn’t jermaine O’Neal have very low minutes his first 3 years or so? I recall him rotting on the bench in Portland. It’s also a rather provocative thought if you think about it like this. If a player plays 36 minutes a game for all 82 games that is about 3000 minutes. Yet there are 325, 000 minutes in a year. This hypothesis is that the 3000 minutes of nba action outweigh the 295k minutes off the court that include practices, running, weight lifting, physical therapy, eating, sleeping, cross training. Olympic and international play etc? Man that’s really hard to believe
12 seasons are 12 seasons.  You can spot check any random player you want (obviously the ones that stayed in the league for a long time) and note that that is when most really show their decline (+- a year or so).   It obviously isn't just minutes, but all of those other things you mention, it takes a toll on your body, but it does all of that whether you are 30 or 35.   You then see a steady decline until they finally call it quits.  Again there are some exceptions (Kareem, the Mailman, Lebron), but by and large 12ish seasons in is the last steady or increasing year, and after that it goes downhill fairly steadily (but generally not all at once).

That feels a little arbitrary. Pierce didn't show an appreciable drop in numbers until year 14. Ray Allen's role was different but he still played 2890 minutes and was an all star in year 15. Garnett's first year in Boston was his 13th and I don't think there was much if any drop off in his ability.

Dirk was still an assassin in year 15. You can look at his rebounding as an indicator of his decline but those numbers fell steadily after his 7th season. Reggie Miller dropped off in his 15th year. Manu Ginobili started to decline after his 9th season despite playing fewer minutes than a lot of guys but he was older.

I think the truth is it's different for different people. It's a combination of years, minutes, and age and that all gets mixed in with biology. It just isn't one thing (like mileage) and it certainly isn't the same for everyone.

EDIT: And you specifically mentioned Robinson, who had a steep decline after year 9 even though he was an older rookie.
« Last Edit: December 11, 2018, 10:39:20 PM by Big333223 »
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Re: NBA Season 2018 - 2019
« Reply #692 on: December 11, 2018, 11:25:30 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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Jimmy butler injured his groin tonight. Note Jimmy is 29. A five year max would sign him through his age 34 season. For comparison deng is 33 now. Noah is 33 now and Rose is 30. Curse of thibs?
Butler has played 15820 regular season minutes and 1627 playoff minutes for 17447 total minutes.  As a comparison, that is less total minutes than Irving has played (17606).  Irving also has a far more extensive injury history.  I don't see too many people worried about signing Irving to a max contract. 

The concern with Thibs isn't so much after the players leave, it is Thibs getting them injured when they are still playing for him.  That is what derailed Noah and Rose.  Deng is on a whole other level when it comes to minutes (over 33000 total - 16th among active players in the regular season) and many of those pre-date Thibs.  He is just worn out.
Theee are definitely people worried about Irving being injury prone. Minutes aside I think the average person is also more worried about playing a player 30+ million at their age 34 seasons compared to their age 32 season. Feels like just being contrarion to argue this...
History has shown minutes, seasons, etc. are more critical to falling off a cliff then actual age (aside from injury of course).  That is why I never pay all that much attention to age as mileage is what matters most when talking about the end of a player's career (that is why I'm really concerned about Horford after this year as his mileage is building up).   

History also shows that while a younger player will likely develop more quickly and has a higher ceiling than an older player, that after 3 or 4 years in the league players are generally what they will be.  They will still improve, but it is almost always gradual and there are almost never huge jumps no matter their age once they hit that point (in the first few seasons huge jumps happen all the time).  That is why I pay less attention to age on players at the end of their rookie contracts as it generally makes no difference at that point.

I'd be curious to know what history you're referring to.
when the players started entering the league earlier, they also started to have their prime periods shift such that their prime starting age was reduced.  I mean look at Anthony and Wade.  Entered the league in the same year and started their decline in the same year, yet Wade is 3 years older than Anthony.  That decline started around year 12 for both players, which if you look at historically is when the vast majority of players really start to decline.  That matches many of the older players like Ewing, Hakeem, Robinson, Pippen, Barkley, etc.  Now 12 years doesn't mean the same amount of minutes for everyone, but by and large most of the players were playing close to full seasons with a lot of minutes and a fair amount of playoff mileage.  Even many of the straight from high school players, like Jermaine O'Neal hold pretty firm in the 12 year range for their decline to start (JO was actually year 11 when he was 28).  Some players that don't get as much wear and tear early on last longer, and some guys buck the trend entirely (like James, maybe Durant who is in year 12 now), but by and large most players begin their decline around 12 seasons in and it really doesn't matter if they are 28 or 35.  Mileage on the body, not physical age, is the main determining factor.

Didn’t jermaine O’Neal have very low minutes his first 3 years or so? I recall him rotting on the bench in Portland. It’s also a rather provocative thought if you think about it like this. If a player plays 36 minutes a game for all 82 games that is about 3000 minutes. Yet there are 325, 000 minutes in a year. This hypothesis is that the 3000 minutes of nba action outweigh the 295k minutes off the court that include practices, running, weight lifting, physical therapy, eating, sleeping, cross training. Olympic and international play etc? Man that’s really hard to believe
12 seasons are 12 seasons.  You can spot check any random player you want (obviously the ones that stayed in the league for a long time) and note that that is when most really show their decline (+- a year or so).   It obviously isn't just minutes, but all of those other things you mention, it takes a toll on your body, but it does all of that whether you are 30 or 35.   You then see a steady decline until they finally call it quits.  Again there are some exceptions (Kareem, the Mailman, Lebron), but by and large 12ish seasons in is the last steady or increasing year, and after that it goes downhill fairly steadily (but generally not all at once).

That feels a little arbitrary. Pierce didn't show an appreciable drop in numbers until year 14. Ray Allen's role was different but he still played 2890 minutes and was an all star in year 15. Garnett's first year in Boston was his 13th and I don't think there was much if any drop off in his ability.

Dirk was still an assassin in year 15. You can look at his rebounding as an indicator of his decline but those numbers fell steadily after his 7th season. Reggie Miller dropped off in his 15th year. Manu Ginobili started to decline after his 9th season despite playing fewer minutes than a lot of guys but he was older.

I think the truth is it's different for different people. It's a combination of years, minutes, and age and that all gets mixed in with biology. It just isn't one thing (like mileage) and it certainly isn't the same for everyone.

EDIT: And you specifically mentioned Robinson, who had a steep decline after year 9 even though he was an older rookie.

Yea, I appreciate the effort that Moranis has put into this, but I really feel like it doesn’t make sense. Carmelo for example is washed up right now cause he never adjusted his game. Wade and pierce developed an old man game to offset their declining athleticism. Lebron has bucked the trend by being in the cutting of fitness and nutrition. Age still is important though. It is the thing people spend the most money On in the world to defy. If it was a matter of
NBA minutes played offsetting that it would be quite wild

Re: NBA Season 2018 - 2019
« Reply #693 on: December 11, 2018, 11:33:03 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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Years ago on this site there was a discussion on the effective longevity of shooting guards. I did a bunch a research and it showed, unless you were a freak superstar at the position, that almost all SGs games, even All-Star level SGs, fell off a cliff at about 31-32 years old. Now a bunch of that data had data from decades where most players got in the league at 22 years old but also didn't have the advantages of modern medicine, dietitians  and training.  But still, it was about ten years and as a SG you lost your legs and your shot just was never the same again.

I could easily see that with players coming in younger and better overall modern advances could push that to 12 years, regardless of age. Someone said that overall GMs would prefer younger players. At 30 compared to 22 or 25, sure as long as the talent level is the same. The advantage of a lower salary and being able to have them more years makes a huge difference. But, depending upon the circumstances with the team as a whole, if you are competing for a title, you want the more experienced guy, talent being equal.

Re: NBA Season 2018 - 2019
« Reply #694 on: December 12, 2018, 12:17:59 AM »

Offline GreenEnvy

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Well, I’d say we aren’t getting the Clips pick. They are not a good team.

Getting absolutely smoked at home against a team missing their best player? Yeah, no Williams, but c’mon.

As soon as a few teams in the West wake up, they will start dropping in the standings quick. They just don’t have the firepower to hang.

They should be on the outside looking in by the new year.
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Re: NBA Season 2018 - 2019
« Reply #695 on: December 12, 2018, 06:19:40 AM »

Offline 10610786d

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Well, I’d say we aren’t getting the Clips pick. They are not a good team.

Getting absolutely smoked at home against a team missing their best player? Yeah, no Williams, but c’mon.

As soon as a few teams in the West wake up, they will start dropping in the standings quick. They just don’t have the firepower to hang.

They should be on the outside looking in by the new year.

They've flied before all 12 of their games - as in, before their last 12 games, the Clippers team was on a plane (I heard anyway)

Re: NBA Season 2018 - 2019
« Reply #696 on: December 12, 2018, 06:25:11 AM »

Offline Moranis

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Jimmy butler injured his groin tonight. Note Jimmy is 29. A five year max would sign him through his age 34 season. For comparison deng is 33 now. Noah is 33 now and Rose is 30. Curse of thibs?
Butler has played 15820 regular season minutes and 1627 playoff minutes for 17447 total minutes.  As a comparison, that is less total minutes than Irving has played (17606).  Irving also has a far more extensive injury history.  I don't see too many people worried about signing Irving to a max contract. 

The concern with Thibs isn't so much after the players leave, it is Thibs getting them injured when they are still playing for him.  That is what derailed Noah and Rose.  Deng is on a whole other level when it comes to minutes (over 33000 total - 16th among active players in the regular season) and many of those pre-date Thibs.  He is just worn out.
Theee are definitely people worried about Irving being injury prone. Minutes aside I think the average person is also more worried about playing a player 30+ million at their age 34 seasons compared to their age 32 season. Feels like just being contrarion to argue this...
History has shown minutes, seasons, etc. are more critical to falling off a cliff then actual age (aside from injury of course).  That is why I never pay all that much attention to age as mileage is what matters most when talking about the end of a player's career (that is why I'm really concerned about Horford after this year as his mileage is building up).   

History also shows that while a younger player will likely develop more quickly and has a higher ceiling than an older player, that after 3 or 4 years in the league players are generally what they will be.  They will still improve, but it is almost always gradual and there are almost never huge jumps no matter their age once they hit that point (in the first few seasons huge jumps happen all the time).  That is why I pay less attention to age on players at the end of their rookie contracts as it generally makes no difference at that point.

I'd be curious to know what history you're referring to.
when the players started entering the league earlier, they also started to have their prime periods shift such that their prime starting age was reduced.  I mean look at Anthony and Wade.  Entered the league in the same year and started their decline in the same year, yet Wade is 3 years older than Anthony.  That decline started around year 12 for both players, which if you look at historically is when the vast majority of players really start to decline.  That matches many of the older players like Ewing, Hakeem, Robinson, Pippen, Barkley, etc.  Now 12 years doesn't mean the same amount of minutes for everyone, but by and large most of the players were playing close to full seasons with a lot of minutes and a fair amount of playoff mileage.  Even many of the straight from high school players, like Jermaine O'Neal hold pretty firm in the 12 year range for their decline to start (JO was actually year 11 when he was 28).  Some players that don't get as much wear and tear early on last longer, and some guys buck the trend entirely (like James, maybe Durant who is in year 12 now), but by and large most players begin their decline around 12 seasons in and it really doesn't matter if they are 28 or 35.  Mileage on the body, not physical age, is the main determining factor.

Didn’t jermaine O’Neal have very low minutes his first 3 years or so? I recall him rotting on the bench in Portland. It’s also a rather provocative thought if you think about it like this. If a player plays 36 minutes a game for all 82 games that is about 3000 minutes. Yet there are 325, 000 minutes in a year. This hypothesis is that the 3000 minutes of nba action outweigh the 295k minutes off the court that include practices, running, weight lifting, physical therapy, eating, sleeping, cross training. Olympic and international play etc? Man that’s really hard to believe
12 seasons are 12 seasons.  You can spot check any random player you want (obviously the ones that stayed in the league for a long time) and note that that is when most really show their decline (+- a year or so).   It obviously isn't just minutes, but all of those other things you mention, it takes a toll on your body, but it does all of that whether you are 30 or 35.   You then see a steady decline until they finally call it quits.  Again there are some exceptions (Kareem, the Mailman, Lebron), but by and large 12ish seasons in is the last steady or increasing year, and after that it goes downhill fairly steadily (but generally not all at once).

That feels a little arbitrary. Pierce didn't show an appreciable drop in numbers until year 14. Ray Allen's role was different but he still played 2890 minutes and was an all star in year 15. Garnett's first year in Boston was his 13th and I don't think there was much if any drop off in his ability.

Dirk was still an assassin in year 15. You can look at his rebounding as an indicator of his decline but those numbers fell steadily after his 7th season. Reggie Miller dropped off in his 15th year. Manu Ginobili started to decline after his 9th season despite playing fewer minutes than a lot of guys but he was older.

I think the truth is it's different for different people. It's a combination of years, minutes, and age and that all gets mixed in with biology. It just isn't one thing (like mileage) and it certainly isn't the same for everyone.

EDIT: And you specifically mentioned Robinson, who had a steep decline after year 9 even though he was an older rookie.

Yea, I appreciate the effort that Moranis has put into this, but I really feel like it doesn’t make sense. Carmelo for example is washed up right now cause he never adjusted his game. Wade and pierce developed an old man game to offset their declining athleticism. Lebron has bucked the trend by being in the cutting of fitness and nutrition. Age still is important though. It is the thing people spend the most money On in the world to defy. If it was a matter of
NBA minutes played offsetting that it would be quite wild
Anthony is in his 16th season.  In his 15th season he was still averaging 16/6.  Pippen's 15th season he was averaging 11/4/4 and his 16th season was his last year in the league.  Anthony, quite simply, has a ton of mileage on those legs.  Sure he didn't adapt as much as he should have, but he also was still a decent player last year.  His mileage is the problem though as he can't do what he used to be able to do and what according to you someone his age should be able to do. 
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Re: NBA Season 2018 - 2019
« Reply #697 on: December 12, 2018, 06:36:31 AM »

Offline Moranis

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Jimmy butler injured his groin tonight. Note Jimmy is 29. A five year max would sign him through his age 34 season. For comparison deng is 33 now. Noah is 33 now and Rose is 30. Curse of thibs?
Butler has played 15820 regular season minutes and 1627 playoff minutes for 17447 total minutes.  As a comparison, that is less total minutes than Irving has played (17606).  Irving also has a far more extensive injury history.  I don't see too many people worried about signing Irving to a max contract. 

The concern with Thibs isn't so much after the players leave, it is Thibs getting them injured when they are still playing for him.  That is what derailed Noah and Rose.  Deng is on a whole other level when it comes to minutes (over 33000 total - 16th among active players in the regular season) and many of those pre-date Thibs.  He is just worn out.
Theee are definitely people worried about Irving being injury prone. Minutes aside I think the average person is also more worried about playing a player 30+ million at their age 34 seasons compared to their age 32 season. Feels like just being contrarion to argue this...
History has shown minutes, seasons, etc. are more critical to falling off a cliff then actual age (aside from injury of course).  That is why I never pay all that much attention to age as mileage is what matters most when talking about the end of a player's career (that is why I'm really concerned about Horford after this year as his mileage is building up).   

History also shows that while a younger player will likely develop more quickly and has a higher ceiling than an older player, that after 3 or 4 years in the league players are generally what they will be.  They will still improve, but it is almost always gradual and there are almost never huge jumps no matter their age once they hit that point (in the first few seasons huge jumps happen all the time).  That is why I pay less attention to age on players at the end of their rookie contracts as it generally makes no difference at that point.

I'd be curious to know what history you're referring to.
when the players started entering the league earlier, they also started to have their prime periods shift such that their prime starting age was reduced.  I mean look at Anthony and Wade.  Entered the league in the same year and started their decline in the same year, yet Wade is 3 years older than Anthony.  That decline started around year 12 for both players, which if you look at historically is when the vast majority of players really start to decline.  That matches many of the older players like Ewing, Hakeem, Robinson, Pippen, Barkley, etc.  Now 12 years doesn't mean the same amount of minutes for everyone, but by and large most of the players were playing close to full seasons with a lot of minutes and a fair amount of playoff mileage.  Even many of the straight from high school players, like Jermaine O'Neal hold pretty firm in the 12 year range for their decline to start (JO was actually year 11 when he was 28).  Some players that don't get as much wear and tear early on last longer, and some guys buck the trend entirely (like James, maybe Durant who is in year 12 now), but by and large most players begin their decline around 12 seasons in and it really doesn't matter if they are 28 or 35.  Mileage on the body, not physical age, is the main determining factor.

Didn’t jermaine O’Neal have very low minutes his first 3 years or so? I recall him rotting on the bench in Portland. It’s also a rather provocative thought if you think about it like this. If a player plays 36 minutes a game for all 82 games that is about 3000 minutes. Yet there are 325, 000 minutes in a year. This hypothesis is that the 3000 minutes of nba action outweigh the 295k minutes off the court that include practices, running, weight lifting, physical therapy, eating, sleeping, cross training. Olympic and international play etc? Man that’s really hard to believe
12 seasons are 12 seasons.  You can spot check any random player you want (obviously the ones that stayed in the league for a long time) and note that that is when most really show their decline (+- a year or so).   It obviously isn't just minutes, but all of those other things you mention, it takes a toll on your body, but it does all of that whether you are 30 or 35.   You then see a steady decline until they finally call it quits.  Again there are some exceptions (Kareem, the Mailman, Lebron), but by and large 12ish seasons in is the last steady or increasing year, and after that it goes downhill fairly steadily (but generally not all at once).

That feels a little arbitrary. Pierce didn't show an appreciable drop in numbers until year 14. Ray Allen's role was different but he still played 2890 minutes and was an all star in year 15. Garnett's first year in Boston was his 13th and I don't think there was much if any drop off in his ability.

Dirk was still an assassin in year 15. You can look at his rebounding as an indicator of his decline but those numbers fell steadily after his 7th season. Reggie Miller dropped off in his 15th year. Manu Ginobili started to decline after his 9th season despite playing fewer minutes than a lot of guys but he was older.

I think the truth is it's different for different people. It's a combination of years, minutes, and age and that all gets mixed in with biology. It just isn't one thing (like mileage) and it certainly isn't the same for everyone.

EDIT: And you specifically mentioned Robinson, who had a steep decline after year 9 even though he was an older rookie.
Robinson played 6 games his 8th season though.  Injuries change everything especially when you are older when you have them (Jordan getting hurt in year 2 is a much different injury than if Jordan would have been hurt 8+ years in).  He was never really the same after he got hurt (except that him getting hurt led to Duncan and the team success he never had before that). 

The last of Dirk's true peak was 2011 (his 12th year).  His minutes, shots, etc. all started declining after that point and he wasn't quite the same.  Sure he was still really good, but he showed a clear decline from that season on.  When you start at a HOF level you aren't just going to fall off a cliff and become crappy, it is a gradual decline. 
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Re: NBA Season 2018 - 2019
« Reply #698 on: December 12, 2018, 11:47:16 AM »

Offline Big333223

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Jimmy butler injured his groin tonight. Note Jimmy is 29. A five year max would sign him through his age 34 season. For comparison deng is 33 now. Noah is 33 now and Rose is 30. Curse of thibs?
Butler has played 15820 regular season minutes and 1627 playoff minutes for 17447 total minutes.  As a comparison, that is less total minutes than Irving has played (17606).  Irving also has a far more extensive injury history.  I don't see too many people worried about signing Irving to a max contract. 

The concern with Thibs isn't so much after the players leave, it is Thibs getting them injured when they are still playing for him.  That is what derailed Noah and Rose.  Deng is on a whole other level when it comes to minutes (over 33000 total - 16th among active players in the regular season) and many of those pre-date Thibs.  He is just worn out.
Theee are definitely people worried about Irving being injury prone. Minutes aside I think the average person is also more worried about playing a player 30+ million at their age 34 seasons compared to their age 32 season. Feels like just being contrarion to argue this...
History has shown minutes, seasons, etc. are more critical to falling off a cliff then actual age (aside from injury of course).  That is why I never pay all that much attention to age as mileage is what matters most when talking about the end of a player's career (that is why I'm really concerned about Horford after this year as his mileage is building up).   

History also shows that while a younger player will likely develop more quickly and has a higher ceiling than an older player, that after 3 or 4 years in the league players are generally what they will be.  They will still improve, but it is almost always gradual and there are almost never huge jumps no matter their age once they hit that point (in the first few seasons huge jumps happen all the time).  That is why I pay less attention to age on players at the end of their rookie contracts as it generally makes no difference at that point.

I'd be curious to know what history you're referring to.
when the players started entering the league earlier, they also started to have their prime periods shift such that their prime starting age was reduced.  I mean look at Anthony and Wade.  Entered the league in the same year and started their decline in the same year, yet Wade is 3 years older than Anthony.  That decline started around year 12 for both players, which if you look at historically is when the vast majority of players really start to decline.  That matches many of the older players like Ewing, Hakeem, Robinson, Pippen, Barkley, etc.  Now 12 years doesn't mean the same amount of minutes for everyone, but by and large most of the players were playing close to full seasons with a lot of minutes and a fair amount of playoff mileage.  Even many of the straight from high school players, like Jermaine O'Neal hold pretty firm in the 12 year range for their decline to start (JO was actually year 11 when he was 28).  Some players that don't get as much wear and tear early on last longer, and some guys buck the trend entirely (like James, maybe Durant who is in year 12 now), but by and large most players begin their decline around 12 seasons in and it really doesn't matter if they are 28 or 35.  Mileage on the body, not physical age, is the main determining factor.

Didn’t jermaine O’Neal have very low minutes his first 3 years or so? I recall him rotting on the bench in Portland. It’s also a rather provocative thought if you think about it like this. If a player plays 36 minutes a game for all 82 games that is about 3000 minutes. Yet there are 325, 000 minutes in a year. This hypothesis is that the 3000 minutes of nba action outweigh the 295k minutes off the court that include practices, running, weight lifting, physical therapy, eating, sleeping, cross training. Olympic and international play etc? Man that’s really hard to believe
12 seasons are 12 seasons.  You can spot check any random player you want (obviously the ones that stayed in the league for a long time) and note that that is when most really show their decline (+- a year or so).   It obviously isn't just minutes, but all of those other things you mention, it takes a toll on your body, but it does all of that whether you are 30 or 35.   You then see a steady decline until they finally call it quits.  Again there are some exceptions (Kareem, the Mailman, Lebron), but by and large 12ish seasons in is the last steady or increasing year, and after that it goes downhill fairly steadily (but generally not all at once).

That feels a little arbitrary. Pierce didn't show an appreciable drop in numbers until year 14. Ray Allen's role was different but he still played 2890 minutes and was an all star in year 15. Garnett's first year in Boston was his 13th and I don't think there was much if any drop off in his ability.

Dirk was still an assassin in year 15. You can look at his rebounding as an indicator of his decline but those numbers fell steadily after his 7th season. Reggie Miller dropped off in his 15th year. Manu Ginobili started to decline after his 9th season despite playing fewer minutes than a lot of guys but he was older.

I think the truth is it's different for different people. It's a combination of years, minutes, and age and that all gets mixed in with biology. It just isn't one thing (like mileage) and it certainly isn't the same for everyone.

EDIT: And you specifically mentioned Robinson, who had a steep decline after year 9 even though he was an older rookie.
Robinson played 6 games his 8th season though.  Injuries change everything especially when you are older when you have them (Jordan getting hurt in year 2 is a much different injury than if Jordan would have been hurt 8+ years in).  He was never really the same after he got hurt (except that him getting hurt led to Duncan and the team success he never had before that). 

The last of Dirk's true peak was 2011 (his 12th year).  His minutes, shots, etc. all started declining after that point and he wasn't quite the same.  Sure he was still really good, but he showed a clear decline from that season on.  When you start at a HOF level you aren't just going to fall off a cliff and become crappy, it is a gradual decline.

Just looking at Dirks' career:

His rpg peaked in years 4 and 5 and there was a steady decline after year 7. Looking at rebounds (a stat predicated very much on effort and timing) you could argue he started his gradual decline in year 8.

His minutes started going down after year 11 but he played more mpg in year 16 than he did in year 15 and he played more mpg in year 18 than he did in year 17.

He had the best eFG% of his career in year 16, a year in which he averaged almost identical ppg as his 6th year.

I don't think these things happen in a clean, gradual way. As players lose some skills, they can gain others and it happens at different times for different people. But it's a combination of things not just hitting an arbitrary number of years in the NBA.

If you have some data on this I'd love to see it but you haven't presented any and I've given a number of examples of guys who, I think, don't match your model.
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Re: NBA Season 2018 - 2019
« Reply #699 on: December 12, 2018, 11:55:36 AM »

Offline Big333223

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Years ago on this site there was a discussion on the effective longevity of shooting guards. I did a bunch a research and it showed, unless you were a freak superstar at the position, that almost all SGs games, even All-Star level SGs, fell off a cliff at about 31-32 years old. Now a bunch of that data had data from decades where most players got in the league at 22 years old but also didn't have the advantages of modern medicine, dietitians  and training.  But still, it was about ten years and as a SG you lost your legs and your shot just was never the same again.

That rings true to me and yet, JJ Redick just had the two best years of his career at age 33 and 34. When Reggie Miller was 35, he averaged 19 ppg, 39 mpg, and played 81 games. Kobe averaged 27-6-6 at age 34, playing 78 games and over 38 mpg (and then his body exploded).

There are always examples of guys who last longer and don't last as long. If we're talking in generalities, what you're saying is probably correct but I think it's more instructive to look at how age and mileage affect players differently (aside from the obvious, at some point getting older makes you worse).
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Re: NBA Season 2018 - 2019
« Reply #700 on: December 12, 2018, 01:13:08 PM »

Offline rondofan1255

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Well, I’d say we aren’t getting the Clips pick. They are not a good team.

Getting absolutely smoked at home against a team missing their best player? Yeah, no Williams, but c’mon.

As soon as a few teams in the West wake up, they will start dropping in the standings quick. They just don’t have the firepower to hang.

They should be on the outside looking in by the new year.

They've flied before all 12 of their games - as in, before their last 12 games, the Clippers team was on a plane (I heard anyway)

I heard it was 13 lol, Rough stretch

SEGABABA with the previous game going into OT, also 3rd in 4 nights

Re: NBA Season 2018 - 2019
« Reply #701 on: December 12, 2018, 02:08:22 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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Jimmy butler injured his groin tonight. Note Jimmy is 29. A five year max would sign him through his age 34 season. For comparison deng is 33 now. Noah is 33 now and Rose is 30. Curse of thibs?
Butler has played 15820 regular season minutes and 1627 playoff minutes for 17447 total minutes.  As a comparison, that is less total minutes than Irving has played (17606).  Irving also has a far more extensive injury history.  I don't see too many people worried about signing Irving to a max contract. 

The concern with Thibs isn't so much after the players leave, it is Thibs getting them injured when they are still playing for him.  That is what derailed Noah and Rose.  Deng is on a whole other level when it comes to minutes (over 33000 total - 16th among active players in the regular season) and many of those pre-date Thibs.  He is just worn out.
Theee are definitely people worried about Irving being injury prone. Minutes aside I think the average person is also more worried about playing a player 30+ million at their age 34 seasons compared to their age 32 season. Feels like just being contrarion to argue this...
History has shown minutes, seasons, etc. are more critical to falling off a cliff then actual age (aside from injury of course).  That is why I never pay all that much attention to age as mileage is what matters most when talking about the end of a player's career (that is why I'm really concerned about Horford after this year as his mileage is building up).   

History also shows that while a younger player will likely develop more quickly and has a higher ceiling than an older player, that after 3 or 4 years in the league players are generally what they will be.  They will still improve, but it is almost always gradual and there are almost never huge jumps no matter their age once they hit that point (in the first few seasons huge jumps happen all the time).  That is why I pay less attention to age on players at the end of their rookie contracts as it generally makes no difference at that point.

I'd be curious to know what history you're referring to.
when the players started entering the league earlier, they also started to have their prime periods shift such that their prime starting age was reduced.  I mean look at Anthony and Wade.  Entered the league in the same year and started their decline in the same year, yet Wade is 3 years older than Anthony.  That decline started around year 12 for both players, which if you look at historically is when the vast majority of players really start to decline.  That matches many of the older players like Ewing, Hakeem, Robinson, Pippen, Barkley, etc.  Now 12 years doesn't mean the same amount of minutes for everyone, but by and large most of the players were playing close to full seasons with a lot of minutes and a fair amount of playoff mileage.  Even many of the straight from high school players, like Jermaine O'Neal hold pretty firm in the 12 year range for their decline to start (JO was actually year 11 when he was 28).  Some players that don't get as much wear and tear early on last longer, and some guys buck the trend entirely (like James, maybe Durant who is in year 12 now), but by and large most players begin their decline around 12 seasons in and it really doesn't matter if they are 28 or 35.  Mileage on the body, not physical age, is the main determining factor.

Didn’t jermaine O’Neal have very low minutes his first 3 years or so? I recall him rotting on the bench in Portland. It’s also a rather provocative thought if you think about it like this. If a player plays 36 minutes a game for all 82 games that is about 3000 minutes. Yet there are 325, 000 minutes in a year. This hypothesis is that the 3000 minutes of nba action outweigh the 295k minutes off the court that include practices, running, weight lifting, physical therapy, eating, sleeping, cross training. Olympic and international play etc? Man that’s really hard to believe
12 seasons are 12 seasons.  You can spot check any random player you want (obviously the ones that stayed in the league for a long time) and note that that is when most really show their decline (+- a year or so).   It obviously isn't just minutes, but all of those other things you mention, it takes a toll on your body, but it does all of that whether you are 30 or 35.   You then see a steady decline until they finally call it quits.  Again there are some exceptions (Kareem, the Mailman, Lebron), but by and large 12ish seasons in is the last steady or increasing year, and after that it goes downhill fairly steadily (but generally not all at once).

That feels a little arbitrary. Pierce didn't show an appreciable drop in numbers until year 14. Ray Allen's role was different but he still played 2890 minutes and was an all star in year 15. Garnett's first year in Boston was his 13th and I don't think there was much if any drop off in his ability.

Dirk was still an assassin in year 15. You can look at his rebounding as an indicator of his decline but those numbers fell steadily after his 7th season. Reggie Miller dropped off in his 15th year. Manu Ginobili started to decline after his 9th season despite playing fewer minutes than a lot of guys but he was older.

I think the truth is it's different for different people. It's a combination of years, minutes, and age and that all gets mixed in with biology. It just isn't one thing (like mileage) and it certainly isn't the same for everyone.

EDIT: And you specifically mentioned Robinson, who had a steep decline after year 9 even though he was an older rookie.

Yea, I appreciate the effort that Moranis has put into this, but I really feel like it doesn’t make sense. Carmelo for example is washed up right now cause he never adjusted his game. Wade and pierce developed an old man game to offset their declining athleticism. Lebron has bucked the trend by being in the cutting of fitness and nutrition. Age still is important though. It is the thing people spend the most money On in the world to defy. If it was a matter of
NBA minutes played offsetting that it would be quite wild
Anthony is in his 16th season.  In his 15th season he was still averaging 16/6.  Pippen's 15th season he was averaging 11/4/4 and his 16th season was his last year in the league.  Anthony, quite simply, has a ton of mileage on those legs.  Sure he didn't adapt as much as he should have, but he also was still a decent player last year.  His mileage is the problem though as he can't do what he used to be able to do and what according to you someone his age should be able to do.

Carmelo was awful last year. He was benched in the playoffs. I’m not sure what you are trying to argue at this point, but when you say Carmelo was decent last year you are on the wrong side of it.

Re: NBA Season 2018 - 2019
« Reply #702 on: December 12, 2018, 02:10:28 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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Jimmy butler injured his groin tonight. Note Jimmy is 29. A five year max would sign him through his age 34 season. For comparison deng is 33 now. Noah is 33 now and Rose is 30. Curse of thibs?
Butler has played 15820 regular season minutes and 1627 playoff minutes for 17447 total minutes.  As a comparison, that is less total minutes than Irving has played (17606).  Irving also has a far more extensive injury history.  I don't see too many people worried about signing Irving to a max contract. 

The concern with Thibs isn't so much after the players leave, it is Thibs getting them injured when they are still playing for him.  That is what derailed Noah and Rose.  Deng is on a whole other level when it comes to minutes (over 33000 total - 16th among active players in the regular season) and many of those pre-date Thibs.  He is just worn out.
Theee are definitely people worried about Irving being injury prone. Minutes aside I think the average person is also more worried about playing a player 30+ million at their age 34 seasons compared to their age 32 season. Feels like just being contrarion to argue this...
History has shown minutes, seasons, etc. are more critical to falling off a cliff then actual age (aside from injury of course).  That is why I never pay all that much attention to age as mileage is what matters most when talking about the end of a player's career (that is why I'm really concerned about Horford after this year as his mileage is building up).   

History also shows that while a younger player will likely develop more quickly and has a higher ceiling than an older player, that after 3 or 4 years in the league players are generally what they will be.  They will still improve, but it is almost always gradual and there are almost never huge jumps no matter their age once they hit that point (in the first few seasons huge jumps happen all the time).  That is why I pay less attention to age on players at the end of their rookie contracts as it generally makes no difference at that point.

I'd be curious to know what history you're referring to.
when the players started entering the league earlier, they also started to have their prime periods shift such that their prime starting age was reduced.  I mean look at Anthony and Wade.  Entered the league in the same year and started their decline in the same year, yet Wade is 3 years older than Anthony.  That decline started around year 12 for both players, which if you look at historically is when the vast majority of players really start to decline.  That matches many of the older players like Ewing, Hakeem, Robinson, Pippen, Barkley, etc.  Now 12 years doesn't mean the same amount of minutes for everyone, but by and large most of the players were playing close to full seasons with a lot of minutes and a fair amount of playoff mileage.  Even many of the straight from high school players, like Jermaine O'Neal hold pretty firm in the 12 year range for their decline to start (JO was actually year 11 when he was 28).  Some players that don't get as much wear and tear early on last longer, and some guys buck the trend entirely (like James, maybe Durant who is in year 12 now), but by and large most players begin their decline around 12 seasons in and it really doesn't matter if they are 28 or 35.  Mileage on the body, not physical age, is the main determining factor.

Didn’t jermaine O’Neal have very low minutes his first 3 years or so? I recall him rotting on the bench in Portland. It’s also a rather provocative thought if you think about it like this. If a player plays 36 minutes a game for all 82 games that is about 3000 minutes. Yet there are 325, 000 minutes in a year. This hypothesis is that the 3000 minutes of nba action outweigh the 295k minutes off the court that include practices, running, weight lifting, physical therapy, eating, sleeping, cross training. Olympic and international play etc? Man that’s really hard to believe
12 seasons are 12 seasons.  You can spot check any random player you want (obviously the ones that stayed in the league for a long time) and note that that is when most really show their decline (+- a year or so).   It obviously isn't just minutes, but all of those other things you mention, it takes a toll on your body, but it does all of that whether you are 30 or 35.   You then see a steady decline until they finally call it quits.  Again there are some exceptions (Kareem, the Mailman, Lebron), but by and large 12ish seasons in is the last steady or increasing year, and after that it goes downhill fairly steadily (but generally not all at once).

That feels a little arbitrary. Pierce didn't show an appreciable drop in numbers until year 14. Ray Allen's role was different but he still played 2890 minutes and was an all star in year 15. Garnett's first year in Boston was his 13th and I don't think there was much if any drop off in his ability.

Dirk was still an assassin in year 15. You can look at his rebounding as an indicator of his decline but those numbers fell steadily after his 7th season. Reggie Miller dropped off in his 15th year. Manu Ginobili started to decline after his 9th season despite playing fewer minutes than a lot of guys but he was older.

I think the truth is it's different for different people. It's a combination of years, minutes, and age and that all gets mixed in with biology. It just isn't one thing (like mileage) and it certainly isn't the same for everyone.

EDIT: And you specifically mentioned Robinson, who had a steep decline after year 9 even though he was an older rookie.
Robinson played 6 games his 8th season though.  Injuries change everything especially when you are older when you have them (Jordan getting hurt in year 2 is a much different injury than if Jordan would have been hurt 8+ years in).  He was never really the same after he got hurt (except that him getting hurt led to Duncan and the team success he never had before that). 

The last of Dirk's true peak was 2011 (his 12th year).  His minutes, shots, etc. all started declining after that point and he wasn't quite the same.  Sure he was still really good, but he showed a clear decline from that season on.  When you start at a HOF level you aren't just going to fall off a cliff and become crappy, it is a gradual decline.

Just looking at Dirks' career:

His rpg peaked in years 4 and 5 and there was a steady decline after year 7. Looking at rebounds (a stat predicated very much on effort and timing) you could argue he started his gradual decline in year 8.

His minutes started going down after year 11 but he played more mpg in year 16 than he did in year 15 and he played more mpg in year 18 than he did in year 17.

He had the best eFG% of his career in year 16, a year in which he averaged almost identical ppg as his 6th year.

I don't think these things happen in a clean, gradual way. As players lose some skills, they can gain others and it happens at different times for different people. But it's a combination of things not just hitting an arbitrary number of years in the NBA.

If you have some data on this I'd love to see it but you haven't presented any and I've given a number of examples of guys who, I think, don't match your model.

I am pretty sure this isn’t based on a highly complicated statistical model. It definitely isn’t true that minutes definitely outweigh age. I’ve seen a lot of research on this across sports and there is no magic bullet.

Re: NBA Season 2018 - 2019
« Reply #703 on: December 12, 2018, 09:47:05 PM »

Offline Phantom255x

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Sixers lose to Nets. Bucks lose to Pacers. Raptors play Warriors tonight.

All of a sudden, just 1 game back of the 2 seed and 4 back of 1st (could be 3.5 if Toronto loses tonight)  ;D
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Re: NBA Season 2018 - 2019
« Reply #704 on: December 12, 2018, 09:50:11 PM »

Offline liam

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Miami just stinks tonight. Down 30 in the second quarter.