Where is Grant Williams' Game At?

[Vermont Green]

Overall, Grant Williams started hot but then tailed off.  I was curious to see if there was a particular point in time that things changed so I sorted his general stats by month:

Nov    38.7% 3pt / 8.5 pts / 29.4 min
Dec    44.4% 3pt / 9.4 pts / 27.0 min
Jan    36.5% 3pt / 8.8 pts / 27.9 min
Feb    32.5% 3pt / 6.1 pts / 25.2 min
Mar    39.7% 3pt / 7.8 pts / 21.9 min

I know this snapshot of stats does not totally represent his play but these do seem to correlate pretty well with the trend.  After a hot start, he started to tail off in Jan and then really dropped in Feb.

One thing that was going on was his extension negotiations.  It is possible that once those stopped, that he put more pressure on himself or something.  I also think that he was nursing some injury.  There was talk of him having something wrong with his elbow.

More importantly, he seems to have ticked back up in March, albeit with less playing time.  When he was playing well in Nov, Dec, and early Jan, he was an important weapon.  Even if he is not hitting 3s (which seems to his principle offense), he still defends well and all the other little things.  But if he is really going to be a factor in the playoffs, I think he will need his 3pt shot or some other offense.  I will take 20 min off the bench with close to 40% shooting from 3.

[Roy H.]

[timpiker]

I've been wondering if he's injured.  The other night when Marcus was guarding Giannis, isn't that what Grant's specialty is?  i.e. moving sideways and staying in front of Giannis so he can't have a free lane to the basket?  Either they're saving him for the playoffs to defend the likes of Embiid and Giannis or...  I say he's injured.

[Vermont Green]

I get your point, the timing for the injury/slump whatever is really bad for him.  But he had a good March statistically and if he keeps that up in the playoffs, I think he can restore most or all of FA value.  If he turned down 4 years / $50M as the reports indicate, I think he will have a fairly hard time beating that.  But if he plays well in the Playoffs, he could still be in line for say 4 years / $40M, something around the MLE.

[Roy H.]

I get your point, the timing for the injury/slump whatever is really bad for him.  But he had a good March statistically and if he keeps that up in the playoffs, I think he can restore most or all of FA value.  If he turned down 4 years / $50M as the reports indicate, I think he will have a fairly hard time beating that.  But if he plays well in the Playoffs, he could still be in line for say 4 years / $40M, something around the MLE.

Honestly, I'd still be fine at 4 years, $50 million.  Especially with the ability to use the MLE potentially decreased in the future, we'll need some mid-range contracts to deal.

But, the dreams of $20 million per season (lol) are probably gone.  Even $15 million per seems out of reach.

[Vermont Green]

I get your point, the timing for the injury/slump whatever is really bad for him.  But he had a good March statistically and if he keeps that up in the playoffs, I think he can restore most or all of FA value.  If he turned down 4 years / $50M as the reports indicate, I think he will have a fairly hard time beating that.  But if he plays well in the Playoffs, he could still be in line for say 4 years / $40M, something around the MLE.

Honestly, I'd still be fine at 4 years, $50 million.  Especially with the ability to use the MLE potentially decreased in the future, we'll need some mid-range contracts to deal.

But, the dreams of $20 million per season (lol) are probably gone.  Even $15 million per seems out of reach.

True, I understand your point.  There were reports that he was asking/hoping for $20M per.  I don't see that he was ever going to get that, even before the slump, but certainly not now.  And I agree that no matter what he does in the playoffs, he is not going to command that kind of contract.

Right now, he has probably played himself down into the $10M/$11M range.  A good playoff run and he can get himself back maybe as high as $15M as you suggest.  But players always get more than I think they are going to get.

[Goldstar88]

His defense hasn’t been as good as it was last year, which is concerning. Pretty much from the start of the season. Also, regarding him possibly being injured, I don’t recall him appearing on any injury reports. If the MLE this summer is around $12M, that seems like an overpay, IMO.

[Roy H.]

His defense hasn’t been as good as it was last year, which is concerning. Pretty much from the start of the season. Also, regarding him possibly being injured, I don’t recall him appearing on any injury reports. If the MLE this summer is around $12M, that seems like an overpay, IMO.

He said he hurt his arm right before the Milwaukee OT game in February, I think.  He reportedly had problems bending his arm.

[tonydelk]

I may be wrong but I definitely think he can get the MLE but not much more unless he gets lucky and has multiple bad teams vying for his services thinking they can get a reliable starter for 13-14 per year.  Grant IMO really regressed this year with his D.  I just can't see him being resigned if JB makes an All NBA team and extends at the max.  The C's needs some young cheap rotational players that can do what Grant does with those limited minutes.  I also think that with Gallo signed for next year and Muscala they let Grant walk and maybe to a sign and trade if it doesn't hard cap them (not sure of the S&T rules) to get a TPE to use at the deadline.

[Celtics2021]

I may be wrong but I definitely think he can get the MLE but not much more unless he gets lucky and has multiple bad teams vying for his services thinking they can get a reliable starter for 13-14 per year.  Grant IMO really regressed this year with his D.  I just can't see him being resigned if JB makes an All NBA team and extends at the max.  The C's needs some young cheap rotational players that can do what Grant does with those limited minutes.  I also think that with Gallo signed for next year and Muscala they let Grant walk and maybe to a sign and trade if it doesn't hard cap them (not sure of the S&T rules) to get a TPE to use at the deadline.

Based on what we’ve heard from the CBA negotiations, a 4-year MLE will come out to a little above $53 million, or $13.3 million per year.  Maybe that will change once the full deal is released, but people need to realize that Grant’s $15 million contract demands are only marginally above the MLE that most think he will get.

[SHAQATTACK]

Near MJ 

[Goldstar88]

I may be wrong but I definitely think he can get the MLE but not much more unless he gets lucky and has multiple bad teams vying for his services thinking they can get a reliable starter for 13-14 per year.  Grant IMO really regressed this year with his D.  I just can't see him being resigned if JB makes an All NBA team and extends at the max.  The C's needs some young cheap rotational players that can do what Grant does with those limited minutes.  I also think that with Gallo signed for next year and Muscala they let Grant walk and maybe to a sign and trade if it doesn't hard cap them (not sure of the S&T rules) to get a TPE to use at the deadline.

Based on what we’ve heard from the CBA negotiations, a 4-year MLE will come out to a little above $53 million, or $13.3 million per year.  Maybe that will change once the full deal is released, but people need to realize that Grant’s $15 million contract demands are only marginally above the MLE that most think he will get.

So he’s likely not going to get $15-20M per year.

[Vermont Green]

I may be wrong but I definitely think he can get the MLE but not much more unless he gets lucky and has multiple bad teams vying for his services thinking they can get a reliable starter for 13-14 per year.  Grant IMO really regressed this year with his D.  I just can't see him being resigned if JB makes an All NBA team and extends at the max.  The C's needs some young cheap rotational players that can do what Grant does with those limited minutes.  I also think that with Gallo signed for next year and Muscala they let Grant walk and maybe to a sign and trade if it doesn't hard cap them (not sure of the S&T rules) to get a TPE to use at the deadline.

Based on what we’ve heard from the CBA negotiations, a 4-year MLE will come out to a little above $53 million, or $13.3 million per year.  Maybe that will change once the full deal is released, but people need to realize that Grant’s $15 million contract demands are only marginally above the MLE that most think he will get.

That would be for the non-taxpayer MLE, right?  Will the taxpayer MLE still be something less still with the new CBA?  And now not every team will have even the taxpayer MLE right?  The new CBA restricts this to a $17.5M "apron".

I agree with you in generalities, if there is a non-taxpaying team that likes Grant, Grant would be a reasonable use of their MLE.  And if that means a 4 year $53M contract and a chance to start, he should be very happy with that.  And the Celtics would probably match that (he is a RFA as I understand it).  To me though, that is probably the ceiling.  I don't see a team using actual cap space to go above that.  And of course we can sign and trade him and get a TPE that people can bemoan when we don't use, if we think the cost is too high and don't want to match.

If a team uses the full MLE or if the team accepts a sign and trade, in either case, they end up hard capped, right?

[Celtics2021]

I may be wrong but I definitely think he can get the MLE but not much more unless he gets lucky and has multiple bad teams vying for his services thinking they can get a reliable starter for 13-14 per year.  Grant IMO really regressed this year with his D.  I just can't see him being resigned if JB makes an All NBA team and extends at the max.  The C's needs some young cheap rotational players that can do what Grant does with those limited minutes.  I also think that with Gallo signed for next year and Muscala they let Grant walk and maybe to a sign and trade if it doesn't hard cap them (not sure of the S&T rules) to get a TPE to use at the deadline.

Based on what we’ve heard from the CBA negotiations, a 4-year MLE will come out to a little above $53 million, or $13.3 million per year.  Maybe that will change once the full deal is released, but people need to realize that Grant’s $15 million contract demands are only marginally above the MLE that most think he will get.

So he’s likely not going to get $15-20M per year.

I think he will.  I’ll bet you 100 Tommy Points he either signs a deal worth at least $15 million per year this summer, or takes the QO and gets such a deal next summer.

[Celtics2021]

I may be wrong but I definitely think he can get the MLE but not much more unless he gets lucky and has multiple bad teams vying for his services thinking they can get a reliable starter for 13-14 per year.  Grant IMO really regressed this year with his D.  I just can't see him being resigned if JB makes an All NBA team and extends at the max.  The C's needs some young cheap rotational players that can do what Grant does with those limited minutes.  I also think that with Gallo signed for next year and Muscala they let Grant walk and maybe to a sign and trade if it doesn't hard cap them (not sure of the S&T rules) to get a TPE to use at the deadline.

Based on what we’ve heard from the CBA negotiations, a 4-year MLE will come out to a little above $53 million, or $13.3 million per year.  Maybe that will change once the full deal is released, but people need to realize that Grant’s $15 million contract demands are only marginally above the MLE that most think he will get.

That would be for the non-taxpayer MLE, right?  Will the taxpayer MLE still be something less still with the new CBA?  And now not every team will have even the taxpayer MLE right?  The new CBA restricts this to a $17.5M "apron".

I agree with you in generalities, if there is a non-taxpaying team that likes Grant, Grant would be a reasonable use of their MLE.  And if that means a 4 year $53M contract and a chance to start, he should be very happy with that.  And the Celtics would probably match that (he is a RFA as I understand it).  To me though, that is probably the ceiling.  I don't see a team using actual cap space to go above that.  And of course we can sign and trade him and get a TPE that people can bemoan when we don't use, if we think the cost is too high and don't want to match.

If a team uses the full MLE or if the team accepts a sign and trade, in either case, they end up hard capped, right?

A substantial majority of teams will have cap space or the full MLE this summer.  Also, the new apron supposedly isn’t going into effect immediately, so the taxpayer MLE (which is lower) will be an option for the other teams.

And yes, the taxpayer MLE or sign-and-trade hard caps you, but as most teams don’t actually want to spend above the hard cap anyway, that is unlikely to be a deterrent.  There are 2-3 every year that dance around the hard cap, but mostly it’s the tax itself teams try to avoid.