JB’s Progress

[Vermont Green]

Boston is now 5-0 without Brown this year.  The pattern continues yet again.

Yeah, because beating the Nets without Durant and also going 4-0 against teams with a combined winning percentage of .247 is really a valid comparison.

 

1-1 without Tatum, beating Washington but losing to Orlando. 

Extrapolated over 82 games, we'd go 82-0 without JB, but 41-41 without JT.  That's a 41 game swing.  Haha.

But, in Moranis' defense, this is a multi-season trend.  The team seems to play significantly better without JB than it does JT, from what I'm remembering.  I definitely buy that.  What I disagree with is the next step in the argument, which is that JB doesn't affect winning or that he's easily replaceable.

I never said he was easily replaceable, only that he should be replaced.  I've never advocated just trading Brown just to trade him, but I have been willing to trade Brown for players I thought would be better fits or that were better (even if just the short term).  So when Durant's name popped up this summer, I had no issue trading Brown (and other pieces for him).  I pushed pretty hard for the Kawhi Leonard and Anthony Davis trades using Brown as the main component.  At times, I would have swapped Brown for Towns as I thought Towns would have fit very well in Boston with his elite offensive skills.

Historically there has been no greater indicator of a player's value to wins and losses greater than their on/off differential.  Brown has a pretty poor on/off differential in his career, both when he plays and when he doesn't play at all.  It is worse in the post season than it is in the regular season.  And I do think it is pretty easy to see why i.e. Brown is very good at most things, but he isn't elite.  This year, his TS% is 59.5%.  The league average is 57.8%, but his eFG% is basically league average as he is 54.4% and league average is 54.1%.  He is well below the 3PT% 32.9 to 35.8 though makes up some of that with his 2PT% at 59.5 while league average is 53.3.  He is above the FT average at 79.5 while league average is 78.2.  So on the whole he is slightly better at shooting than the league average (though is well below average at 3).  You couple that with his pretty bad assist to turnover ratio of just about 1 to 1, whereas the league average is around 1.75 to 1.  So he turns the ball over at pretty good clip for a guy that doesn't pass that much and is a basically an average shooter.  He plays solid defense, but isn't a difference maker defensively. 

Brown is a very good all around player, but he isn't providing a skill set that isn't duplicative of basically everyone else on the team.  He is basically a lesser version of Tatum across the board and because he basically plays the same position as Tatum, there isn't much of a boost to the team from his play, which is why when he doesn't play at all, the team hardly notices he isn't there.  He just doesn't mesh well with Tatum and I do think the team would be better served having players next to Tatum that fill in the gaps and support him better.  Look at the last few games when they've gone back to the 2 big sets to start and with White instead of Brown.  The team has played better with Tatum at SF, a defensive big and a shooting big (or two shooting bigs), Smart, and a shooter/playmaker at SG.  White and Brogdon have more than carried Brown's load and that is with just taking Brown off the team, and not replacing him.  Basketball is a team game and Brown just doesn't fit well on this team.  The numbers bear that out.

This statistical analysis is fine, but it is just stats. Stats tell a story, but not the whole story.  If you think about Brown, he is a player whose weakness is supposed to be skill stuff, and whose strength is supposed to be athleticism.  So the story your stats tell is that Brown is kind of league average (this season) for the skill stuff, but he is still above most of the league on athleticism.  Brown has some Marcus Smart in him where his value is hard to gauge based only on stats.

Mitigating his on/off stats, when he is out, he is replaced by White or Brogdon, two very good players.  When Tatum is out, he is replaced by Hauser, more of a drop off.  Other times, Tatum is replace by Brodgon indirectly with Brown sliding over to SF so this does even out some but in that case, you have down graded two positions.  But bottom line, Tatum is a far more valuable player than Brown and the on/off numbers reflect this, but his replacement is not as good as Brown's replacement, and this is a factor as well.

Setting aside all the stats and just going by what I see on the court, I think Brown is a very good player, a fringe all star.  If we replaced Brown with a fringe all star PF, the team would still be good.  Maybe better.

[Sophomore]

It’s not easy to replace Brown because there aren’t many players better than he is. The guys you mention as trade targets - Davis, Durant, and Kawhi - all have major injury history in the past few years, as well as being older. While Brown isn’t as durable as Tatum, his history of availability and predicted availability over the next four years of Tatum’s prime is *much* better than those other guys. You cant make a valid comparison without considering the risk those guys are in street clothes.

On-off numbers are highly contingent on who a player shares the court with. And at this point, Brown’s numbers from his first 2-3 years are irrelevant. He was a different player. I’ll add two things.

First, I don’t know where you got the plus-minus number saying Brown was negative in last year’s playoffs. Here’s a link showing him as +73 over 24 playoff games - roughly +3 per game. https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/jaylen-brown-playoff-stats-this-year

Second, Brown is an elite scorer. You compare him to league average, which includes centers and PFs. Luke Kornet and Daniel Gafford have much better TS% than Brown - and also Jason Tatum. Does that make them elite scorers? It does not. It means their shots are all at the rim. The TS% average for guards is 56.5% - Jaylen is above, at high volume; he’s been in or near top ten in the NBA in scoring all year. It’s not easy to sustain that level when you’re the team’s number 1 or 2 option at volume.  And I will not be surprised if his TS% goes up before the year is over. He’s at a career low from 3. Maybe he won’t return to closer to his career average, but if he does it will be comfortably above 60. As a 2-point scorer, he’s tied for the league lead among guards - Beal is at .596, Jaylen is at .595. He’s a genuine 3-level scorer.

End of the day, is Tatum more valuable than Brown? He is. But that’s not really controversial. When Brown steps to the line, do fans chant MVP? They do not. The argument here is that Brown is a third-team all-NBA candidate, and Tatum is first team. If you can get a better, healthier player than Brown, great. If you think that’s easy to do I disagree.

[Kernewek]

Is it a nice chat, or is an opportunity for Moranis to poop on Brown? His attempt to use stats is not believable or impressive.

I find Moranis has a better approach than some when it comes to using stats to evaluate what we see on the floor. I don't always agree with his conclusions, but I don't think it's coming from a place where he hates the team in general or any player in particular, and I think reading his posts with that intention is a mistake.

That said, I think I share Soph's position - that it's not easy to replace Brown because even if he's not a lab-grown Tatum enabler, there are precious few upgrades around the league anyway, and we have no guarantee that any of the replacements would fit better.

[Moranis]

His on/off differential per 100 possessions is not the same thing as his +-.  Per 100 possessions in the playoffs Brown was a +3.5 on the court, but -1.5 for the differential between on and off.  As a comparison, Tatum was +4.6 on the court with a +5.4 differential.  Among starters last year in the playoffs, Rob led the way, though PP was best on the team in both from the rotation (Tatum was 3rd and Al was 4th).  So basically, PP came in for Brown and the team got significantly better during the entirety of the playoff run last year.  That said, in the Finals, Brown outperformed Tatum in those stats because Tatum had such a horrid +- in game 2 (they were about equal outside of game 2). 

[Roy H.]

His on/off differential per 100 possessions is not the same thing as his +-.  Per 100 possessions in the playoffs Brown was a +3.5 on the court, but -1.5 for the differential between on and off.  As a comparison, Tatum was +4.6 on the court with a +5.4 differential.  Among starters last year in the playoffs, Rob led the way, though PP was best on the team in both from the rotation (Tatum was 3rd and Al was 4th). So basically, PP came in for Brown and the team got significantly better during the entirety of the playoff run last year.  That said, in the Finals, Brown outperformed Tatum in those stats because Tatum had such a horrid +- in game 2 (they were about equal outside of game 2).

It's your recollection that Payton Pritchard was subbing in for Jaylen?   I spot-checked a handful of games through popcornmachine.net, and didn't see that substitution pattern.

[Moranis]

His on/off differential per 100 possessions is not the same thing as his +-.  Per 100 possessions in the playoffs Brown was a +3.5 on the court, but -1.5 for the differential between on and off.  As a comparison, Tatum was +4.6 on the court with a +5.4 differential.  Among starters last year in the playoffs, Rob led the way, though PP was best on the team in both from the rotation (Tatum was 3rd and Al was 4th). So basically, PP came in for Brown and the team got significantly better during the entirety of the playoff run last year.  That said, in the Finals, Brown outperformed Tatum in those stats because Tatum had such a horrid +- in game 2 (they were about equal outside of game 2).

It's your recollection that Payton Pritchard was subbing in for Jaylen?   I spot-checked a handful of games through popcornmachine.net, and didn't see that substitution pattern.

It's my recollection that PP played with Tatum and not Brown as much with Brown during the playoffs last year.  For example, I recall a lot of the 2nd and 4th quarters starting with PP, White, Tatum, and 2 big lineups (Rob, Al, and/or Grant).  Not all, I think some had Brown instead of Tatum or Smart instead of White.  I just remember a lot of lineups where PP and Tatum were on the floor when Brown wasn't and I recalled them at the start of quarters.  Going off memory.  It isn't like PP played a ton of minutes in the playoffs, somewhere around 15 a game, but I just remember those minutes going well for Boston (which matches his on/off numbers).

[byennie]

Is it a nice chat, or is an opportunity for Moranis to poop on Brown? His attempt to use stats is not believable or impressive.

I find Moranis has a better approach than some when it comes to using stats to evaluate what we see on the floor. I don't always agree with his conclusions, but I don't think it's coming from a place where he hates the team in general or any player in particular, and I think reading his posts with that intention is a mistake.

That said, I think I share Soph's position - that it's not easy to replace Brown because even if he's not a lab-grown Tatum enabler, there are precious few upgrades around the league anyway, and we have no guarantee that any of the replacements would fit better.

I don't think the analysis is crazy, it just seems a bit biased to me. Looking at the W-L, my first reaction was:

So we were a whopping 17-16 the past 3 years without Brown, going into two games against a last place team (which we ultimately won with a very deep team)? 8-8 in a year that we went to The Finals?

To me that's evidence that we're totally mediocre without him, and must be quite a bit better with him. Which probably isn't the whole story either, just where my personal intuition goes.

If the goal is to win a championship, I'd much rather have him playing, and if the idea is that he's good but not a perfect fit, that seems like a dose of idealism that could be applied anywhere.

[Moranis]

Is it a nice chat, or is an opportunity for Moranis to poop on Brown? His attempt to use stats is not believable or impressive.

I find Moranis has a better approach than some when it comes to using stats to evaluate what we see on the floor. I don't always agree with his conclusions, but I don't think it's coming from a place where he hates the team in general or any player in particular, and I think reading his posts with that intention is a mistake.

That said, I think I share Soph's position - that it's not easy to replace Brown because even if he's not a lab-grown Tatum enabler, there are precious few upgrades around the league anyway, and we have no guarantee that any of the replacements would fit better.

I don't think the analysis is crazy, it just seems a bit biased to me. Looking at the W-L, my first reaction was:

So we were a whopping 17-16 the past 3 years without Brown, going into two games against a last place team (which we ultimately won with a very deep team)? 8-8 in a year that we went to The Finals?

To me that's evidence that we're totally mediocre without him, and must be quite a bit better with him. Which probably isn't the whole story either, just where my personal intuition goes.

If the goal is to win a championship, I'd much rather have him playing, and if the idea is that he's good but not a perfect fit, that seems like a dose of idealism that could be applied anywhere.

The other way to look at it, is Boston is above .500 by just removing an all star caliber player from the roster in the middle of seasons and without replacing him at all.  What is Boston's record if they replace him with a solid starter level player or players.  And I'm not suggesting this as a trade, but as an example, what if instead of Brown the team had Hield and Turner?  What would the team look like in that scenario?  And I'm not suggesting that as a trade, as Brown has more value than Hield + Turner, just using that as an example of 2 solid starters at positions that would make sense.

[celticsclay]

Is it a nice chat, or is an opportunity for Moranis to poop on Brown? His attempt to use stats is not believable or impressive.

I find Moranis has a better approach than some when it comes to using stats to evaluate what we see on the floor. I don't always agree with his conclusions, but I don't think it's coming from a place where he hates the team in general or any player in particular, and I think reading his posts with that intention is a mistake.

That said, I think I share Soph's position - that it's not easy to replace Brown because even if he's not a lab-grown Tatum enabler, there are precious few upgrades around the league anyway, and we have no guarantee that any of the replacements would fit better.

I don't think the analysis is crazy, it just seems a bit biased to me. Looking at the W-L, my first reaction was:

So we were a whopping 17-16 the past 3 years without Brown, going into two games against a last place team (which we ultimately won with a very deep team)? 8-8 in a year that we went to The Finals?

To me that's evidence that we're totally mediocre without him, and must be quite a bit better with him. Which probably isn't the whole story either, just where my personal intuition goes.

If the goal is to win a championship, I'd much rather have him playing, and if the idea is that he's good but not a perfect fit, that seems like a dose of idealism that could be applied anywhere.

Yeah this is well said. I don’t really get why we have to have this talking point jammed down our throat every year if we beat a last place team two times without brown. It is beyond tired.

[MarcusSmartFanClub]

Is anyone willing to buy Moranis’ claim that Jaylen doesn’t have a positive impact on this team winning?

I have taken enough statistics 20 years ago to believe that this is confirmation bias. Especially evident when he brings the point up after a win where JB was hurt.

[blink]

Is it a nice chat, or is an opportunity for Moranis to poop on Brown? His attempt to use stats is not believable or impressive.

I find Moranis has a better approach than some when it comes to using stats to evaluate what we see on the floor. I don't always agree with his conclusions, but I don't think it's coming from a place where he hates the team in general or any player in particular, and I think reading his posts with that intention is a mistake.

That said, I think I share Soph's position - that it's not easy to replace Brown because even if he's not a lab-grown Tatum enabler, there are precious few upgrades around the league anyway, and we have no guarantee that any of the replacements would fit better.

I don't think the analysis is crazy, it just seems a bit biased to me. Looking at the W-L, my first reaction was:

So we were a whopping 17-16 the past 3 years without Brown, going into two games against a last place team (which we ultimately won with a very deep team)? 8-8 in a year that we went to The Finals?

To me that's evidence that we're totally mediocre without him, and must be quite a bit better with him. Which probably isn't the whole story either, just where my personal intuition goes.

If the goal is to win a championship, I'd much rather have him playing, and if the idea is that he's good but not a perfect fit, that seems like a dose of idealism that could be applied anywhere.

Yeah this is well said. I don’t really get why we have to have this talking point jammed down our throat every year if we beat a last place team two times without brown. It is beyond tired.

I also think that you have to look at why we have been so good this year.  In the most basic way, we have been a super offensive team, almost historically good on the offensive side of the ball.  We basically outscore everyone we play.  Well what goes into making us a great offensive team?  The biggest thing, is that we have two of the best offensive players in the NBA.  We have two great scorers that can get buckets at all 3 levels.  So to say your second best scorer, who is 12th in the league in scoring 27.2 ppg, doesn't contribute to winning just seems insane. 

[Hoopvortex]

His on/off differential per 100 possessions is not the same thing as his +-.  Per 100 possessions in the playoffs Brown was a +3.5 on the court, but -1.5 for the differential between on and off.  As a comparison, Tatum was +4.6 on the court with a +5.4 differential.  Among starters last year in the playoffs, Rob led the way, though PP was best on the team in both from the rotation (Tatum was 3rd and Al was 4th). So basically, PP came in for Brown and the team got significantly better during the entirety of the playoff run last year.  That said, in the Finals, Brown outperformed Tatum in those stats because Tatum had such a horrid +- in game 2 (they were about equal outside of game 2).

It's your recollection that Payton Pritchard was subbing in for Jaylen?   I spot-checked a handful of games through popcornmachine.net, and didn't see that substitution pattern.

It's my recollection that PP played with Tatum and not Brown as much with Brown during the playoffs last year.  For example, I recall a lot of the 2nd and 4th quarters starting with PP, White, Tatum, and 2 big lineups (Rob, Al, and/or Grant).  Not all, I think some had Brown instead of Tatum or Smart instead of White.  I just remember a lot of lineups where PP and Tatum were on the floor when Brown wasn't and I recalled them at the start of quarters.  Going off memory.  It isn't like PP played a ton of minutes in the playoffs, somewhere around 15 a game, but I just remember those minutes going well for Boston (which matches his on/off numbers).

I think that it's more significant that PP was mostly on the floor with another ballhandler, either White or Smart, than whether he spent more time with Tatum than Brown.

[MarcusSmartFanClub]

Is anyone willing to buy Moranis’ claim that Jaylen doesn’t have a positive impact on this team winning?

I have taken enough statistics 20 years ago to believe that this is confirmation bias. Especially evident when he brings the point up after a win where JB was hurt.

JB posted 27/8/7 tonight against Toronto without Tatum in a win. Should we draw conclusions with such a small sample size?

[slamtheking]

Is anyone willing to buy Moranis’ claim that Jaylen doesn’t have a positive impact on this team winning?

I have taken enough statistics 20 years ago to believe that this is confirmation bias. Especially evident when he brings the point up after a win where JB was hurt.

JB posted 27/8/7 tonight against Toronto without Tatum in a win. Should we draw conclusions with such a small sample size?

was wondering how long it would take someone to resurrect this thread.

[MarcusSmartFanClub]

Is anyone willing to buy Moranis’ claim that Jaylen doesn’t have a positive impact on this team winning?

I have taken enough statistics 20 years ago to believe that this is confirmation bias. Especially evident when he brings the point up after a win where JB was hurt.

JB posted 27/8/7 tonight against Toronto without Tatum in a win. Should we draw conclusions with such a small sample size?

was wondering how long it would take someone to resurrect this thread.

Someone needed to defend our players from the keyboard warriors of Celtics Strong!