JB’s Progress

[tenn_smoothie]

Celtics would be foolish to not pony up for whatever they can given JB.

No doubt. That’s not the worry: the worry is that JB walks like Kyrie did even though we can offer more than anybody else.

Exactly

The general theme on the forum seems to be that Jaylen is extremely disrespected, but I believe most people opinions are in one of two camps;

- Jaylen’s skills (though elite) are somewhat redundant next to an MVP caliber wing like Tatum.

- Are fearful that Jaylen will walk in free agency because he believes he’s in Tatum’s shadow.

He is in Tatum's shadow and probably will remain that way, though much of the time they are more like #1 and #1A.

But Pierce ended up a little in Garnett's shadow, McHale and Max stayed in Bird's shadow, on and on.
They handled it just fine because winning titles was Priority 1.
If Brown's main priority is to be a team's top dog, then he will never be happy here.
I'd say the guy has got it great in Boston, but he seems impressionable at times listening to the wrong people.

[Big333223]

Celtics would be foolish to not pony up for whatever they can given JB.

No doubt. That’s not the worry: the worry is that JB walks like Kyrie did even though we can offer more than anybody else.

Exactly

The general theme on the forum seems to be that Jaylen is extremely disrespected, but I believe most people opinions are in one of two camps;

- Jaylen’s skills (though elite) are somewhat redundant next to an MVP caliber wing like Tatum.

- Are fearful that Jaylen will walk in free agency because he believes he’s in Tatum’s shadow.

He is in Tatum's shadow and probably will remain that way, though much of the time they are more like #1 and #1A.

But Pierce ended up a little in Garnett's shadow, McHale and Max stayed in Bird's shadow, on and on.
They handled it just fine because winning titles was Priority 1.
If Brown's main priority is to be a team's top dog, then he will never be happy here.
I'd say the guy has got it great in Boston, but he seems impressionable at times listening to the wrong people.

Is there any indication that this bothers him? It's a thing that people talk about but Brown seems totally comfortable being the team's #2, especially when he still gets plenty of opportunities and Tatum is fine letting him borrow the spotlight when he's hot.

[Moranis]

Boston is now 5-0 without Brown this year.  The pattern continues yet again.

[Sophomore]

Boston is now 5-0 without Brown this year.  The pattern continues yet again.

I’m not sure these two wins against Charlotte should count. *Everyone* beats Charlotte. The Cs most likely would have lost to the Pelicans without JB scoring 41.

Surely you’re not suggesting the team would be better simply by subtracting him…?

[MarcusSmartFanClub]

Boston is now 5-0 without Brown this year.  The pattern continues yet again.

Are you trying to say that the team plays well without him, thus diminishing his importance? What is your point?

If we want to use small sample sizes, we can say that he had a better Finals performance than Tatum. What conclusion should we draw from that?

[blink]

Boston is now 5-0 without Brown this year.  The pattern continues yet again.

lol, the brown haters convention has begun...

[Moranis]

Boston is now 5-0 without Brown this year.  The pattern continues yet again.

I’m not sure these two wins against Charlotte should count. *Everyone* beats Charlotte. The Cs most likely would have lost to the Pelicans without JB scoring 41.

Surely you’re not suggesting the team would be better simply by subtracting him…?

I'm merely suggesting that every year this happens.  It isn't an isolated incident. 

Boston's record without Brown available / with Brown
17-18 season - 8-4 / 47-23
18-19 season - 8-0 / 41-33
19-20 season - 10-5 / 38-19
20-21 season - 6-8 / 30-28
21-22 season - 8-8 / 43-23 (most of that was early as Boston was 7-7 without Brown and 6-7 with him at one point last year)
Thus far this season 5-0 / 28-12

Brown's on/off differential per 100 possessions over those seasons
18 +8.2 (playoffs -0.1)
19 -3.7 (-16.3)
20 -0.8 (-4.7)
21 +0.6 (no games)
22 +5.4 (-1.5)
Thus far this year -2.2

Brown quite simply is not and has never been all that important to Boston actually winning games.  He is an excellent player, the team would obviously be worse without him, but I don't think the team would necessarily be worse swapping him out for a player or players that have elite skills and that better compliment Tatum (even if they are lesser players).  Brown does everything well, but he isn't elite at anything.  He doesn't act as a multiplier and his skill set isn't all that great as a secondary player (and he isn't good enough to be a primary player).  Brown doesn't shoot well enough, pass well enough, dribble well enough, take well enough care of the ball, etc. to be a player that truly impacts winning in the secondary role he is in, and because he basically plays the same position and of a similar style of play as Tatum, he makes Tatum worse.  It isn't a coincidence that historically Tatum plays better when Brown doesn't play at all (which is why Boston's record doesn't crater in Brown's two weeks he always misses every year).  Tatum not only ups his attempts, but also increases his FG%, gets more assists, more rebounds, etc. when Brown is out.  Tatum is the engine of the team.  He is the guy that drives the wins and losses and he simply plays better when he doesn't share the floor with Brown. 

I mention this every year during Brown's missed games.  Every year we have the same debate about how it is a small sample size, I'm misusing stats, etc.  And yet every year it keeps happening in exactly the same manner.  Maybe just maybe because I'm not wrong on this one.  Brown just doesn't impact winning on this team.  Tatum always does.  He is the guy and basically the only guy that reliably affects the scoreboard in the positive for the Celtics.

[iadera]

I'd also have to agree with Moranis that JB is not Tatum's level. He's great player, but just not that great. Still, that has nothing to do with discussion about staying/leaving the team. He' should be our top priority on the team, together with Tatum.

Talking about his play, seems he just doesn't make right decisions sometimes. Especially when going to the rim, trying to dribble and pass the defenders. When he's hot he's unstoppable, but sometimes, when having a bad shooting day, he doesn't slow down and that leads to turn too many balls over.
There is 0% hating towards JB in this. I love him!

[Celtics2021]

Boston is now 5-0 without Brown this year.  The pattern continues yet again.

Yeah, because beating the Nets without Durant and also going 4-0 against teams with a combined winning percentage of .247 is really a valid comparison.

 

[slamtheking]

Boston is now 5-0 without Brown this year.  The pattern continues yet again.

Yeah, because beating the Nets without Durant and also going 4-0 against teams with a combined winning percentage of .247 is really a valid comparison.

 

agreed.  one thing that can always be counted on every year is Moranis jumping at the opportunity to make this appear to be a valid point when the numbers favor him. 

looking at the stats every year, C's seem pretty [dang] good with Brown and that's against all competition rather than just the small sample sizes of games he misses without the talent level of the opposition being accounted for.

[Roy H.]

Boston is now 5-0 without Brown this year.  The pattern continues yet again.

Yeah, because beating the Nets without Durant and also going 4-0 against teams with a combined winning percentage of .247 is really a valid comparison.

 

1-1 without Tatum, beating Washington but losing to Orlando. 

Extrapolated over 82 games, we'd go 82-0 without JB, but 41-41 without JT.  That's a 41 game swing.  Haha.

But, in Moranis' defense, this is a multi-season trend.  The team seems to play significantly better without JB than it does JT, from what I'm remembering.  I definitely buy that.  What I disagree with is the next step in the argument, which is that JB doesn't affect winning or that he's easily replaceable. 

[slamtheking]

Boston is now 5-0 without Brown this year.  The pattern continues yet again.

Yeah, because beating the Nets without Durant and also going 4-0 against teams with a combined winning percentage of .247 is really a valid comparison.

 

1-1 without Tatum, beating Washington but losing to Orlando. 

Extrapolated over 82 games, we'd go 82-0 without JB, but 41-41 without JT.  That's a 41 game swing.  Haha.

But, in Moranis' defense, this is a multi-season trend.  The team seems to play significantly better without JB than it does JT, from what I'm remembering.  I definitely buy that.  What I disagree with is the next step in the argument, which is that JB doesn't affect winning or that he's easily replaceable.

There you go, the essence of the point captured in a nice neat package

[Kernewek]

Yeah this is a well-trod path for the conversation by now I think.

I do think that at this point we should acknowledge that this is essentially Moranis's point, which is true:

Tatum is the engine of the team.  He is the guy that drives the wins and losses and he simply plays better when he doesn't share the floor with Brown. 

Which is not the same thing as saying that we need to get rid of Brown - because I agree with Roy and would go further to say that I don't think there's a more complementary package of players or talents that overlap nicely with the team and the current window.

Anyway, it's a nice annual chat we have at this point 

[MarcusSmartFanClub]

Is it a nice chat, or is an opportunity for Moranis to poop on Brown? His attempt to use stats is not believable or impressive.

[Moranis]

Boston is now 5-0 without Brown this year.  The pattern continues yet again.

Yeah, because beating the Nets without Durant and also going 4-0 against teams with a combined winning percentage of .247 is really a valid comparison.

 

1-1 without Tatum, beating Washington but losing to Orlando. 

Extrapolated over 82 games, we'd go 82-0 without JB, but 41-41 without JT.  That's a 41 game swing.  Haha.

But, in Moranis' defense, this is a multi-season trend.  The team seems to play significantly better without JB than it does JT, from what I'm remembering.  I definitely buy that.  What I disagree with is the next step in the argument, which is that JB doesn't affect winning or that he's easily replaceable.

I never said he was easily replaceable, only that he should be replaced.  I've never advocated just trading Brown just to trade him, but I have been willing to trade Brown for players I thought would be better fits or that were better (even if just the short term).  So when Durant's name popped up this summer, I had no issue trading Brown (and other pieces for him).  I pushed pretty hard for the Kawhi Leonard and Anthony Davis trades using Brown as the main component.  At times, I would have swapped Brown for Towns as I thought Towns would have fit very well in Boston with his elite offensive skills.

Historically there has been no greater indicator of a player's value to wins and losses greater than their on/off differential.  Brown has a pretty poor on/off differential in his career, both when he plays and when he doesn't play at all.  It is worse in the post season than it is in the regular season.  And I do think it is pretty easy to see why i.e. Brown is very good at most things, but he isn't elite.  This year, his TS% is 59.5%.  The league average is 57.8%, but his eFG% is basically league average as he is 54.4% and league average is 54.1%.  He is well below the 3PT% 32.9 to 35.8 though makes up some of that with his 2PT% at 59.5 while league average is 53.3.  He is above the FT average at 79.5 while league average is 78.2.  So on the whole he is slightly better at shooting than the league average (though is well below average at 3).  You couple that with his pretty bad assist to turnover ratio of just about 1 to 1, whereas the league average is around 1.75 to 1.  So he turns the ball over at pretty good clip for a guy that doesn't pass that much and is a basically an average shooter.  He plays solid defense, but isn't a difference maker defensively. 

Brown is a very good all around player, but he isn't providing a skill set that isn't duplicative of basically everyone else on the team.  He is basically a lesser version of Tatum across the board and because he basically plays the same position as Tatum, there isn't much of a boost to the team from his play, which is why when he doesn't play at all, the team hardly notices he isn't there.  He just doesn't mesh well with Tatum and I do think the team would be better served having players next to Tatum that fill in the gaps and support him better.  Look at the last few games when they've gone back to the 2 big sets to start and with White instead of Brown.  The team has played better with Tatum at SF, a defensive big and a shooting big (or two shooting bigs), Smart, and a shooter/playmaker at SG.  White and Brogdon have more than carried Brown's load and that is with just taking Brown off the team, and not replacing him.  Basketball is a team game and Brown just doesn't fit well on this team.  The numbers bear that out.