Author Topic: If Hayward opts out...Will Danny Ainge be forced to pivot again?  (Read 4462 times)

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Offline CsBanner18

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This post assumes that Gordon Hayward will opt out of the final year of his $34M contract. How would the Celtics pivot?

Last offseason, Al Horford opted out. Ainge was able to turn Kyrie, Horford, Rozier & Baynes’ departures into Kemba Walker (via sign & trade) and Enes Kanter. Doesn’t sound so great on paper, but replacing Irving with Kemba was crucial.

This time around it’s Gordon Hayward with the ability to opt out. How the Celtics are able to pivot depends largely on the NBA cap numbers for the 2020-21 season.

If the NBA salary cap is set to about $115M, the Celtics could open up cap space with a flurry of moves. However, if the cap is set to $110M, the Celtics would only be able to offer the full MLE ($9.3M) & BAE ($3.65M). (With the same flurry of moves)

This scenario assumes the cap is set to $115M:

- Hayward opts out
- Kanter opts out (or gets traded into cap space)
- Celtics trade Poirier & 30 for a 2020 second rd pick
- Traded into cap space or waived: Ojeleye, Green
- Renounce the rights to Brad Wanamaker

- Stash pick #26.


Projected team salary for 2020-21: $141M

Subtractions from the roster:

1) $141M - $34.1M (Hayward opts out ) = $106,900,000

2) $106.9M - $5M (Kanter opts out or is traded) = $101,900,000

3) 101.9M - $2.6M (Poirier traded for Cap relief) = $99,300,000

4) $99.3M - $3.2M (Ojeleye & Green waived) = $96,100,000

5) $96.1M - $1.9M (Wanamaker’s cap hold) = $94,200,000


Additions to the roster:

1) Sign Tremont Waters to the same deal Carsen Edwards has: $1.5M a year.

Cap: $94.2M + $1.5M (Waters) = $95.7M

2) Sign the 2nd round pick received in the Poirier trade.
Assuming it’s a pick in the 31-45 range, with a salary of $1.5M.

Cap: $95.7M + $1.5M (2nd rd pick) = $97.2M

3) Sign 14th pick: (projected salary: $3,036,700

Cap: $97.2M + $3,036,700 (14th pick) = $100,236,700


PROJECTED SALARY CAP AFTER A FLURRY OF OFFSEASON MOVES: $100,236,700M

I’m sure the number is slightly off (I’m no cap expert), but these moves would result in approximately $12M worth of CAP SPACE for the Celtics, as well as the room exception (or RME) worth $5M.

If the Celtics ended up in this scenario, what would your pivot move be?!?

Here’s my pivot: The Celtics offer Christian Wood a contract worth $12M a year (cap space).


Next, Boston looks to add a veteran or two using the RME worth $5M (kind of dependent on who the Celtics draft):

Bigs: Bismack Biyombo/Ian Mahinmi/DeMarcus Cousins/Harry Giles

Wings: Mo’ Harkless/James Ennis/Evan Turner

Guards: D.J Augustin/Isaiah Thomas (!!!)


After all is said and done, the Celtics would be left trying to fill the void of Hayward’s playmaking and scoring.

With the uncertainty surrounding Hayward’s contract, drafting a reliable two way wing would be ideal. This draft is filled with role players, mixed in with some all star potential. If not selected at 14, a solid wing can still be drafted late in round 1 or even in round 2.

This draft is arguably the most crucial for Danny Ainge. Finding another player with all star potential, would go a long way in terms of how Ainge is able to play his cards moving forward.

Again, what would your pivot move be? You have $12M in cap space, & $5M in exceptions (RME). GO!!
« Last Edit: October 29, 2020, 08:08:07 AM by CsBanner18 »

Re: If Hayward opts out...Danny Ainge will be forced to pivot again
« Reply #1 on: October 28, 2020, 09:13:57 AM »

Offline Darth_Yoda

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Also you can look to split that 12 million between 2 players.

For me it would be either

Wood - 12 million
a Point for the 5 Million (Teague, Rondo,)


Kemba/PG/Waters
Smart/Romeo/Edwards
Brown/#14
Tatum/Grant
Wood/Theis/Timelord

The 14th would most likely have to be a sf/pf type and the second round picks the same thing.


Or you can split the 12 million and basically sign 2 players then use the 5 million in exceptions

Baynes - 8 mill
Giles - 3 million
Forbes - 4 million
Mudiay - 2 million

Kemba/Mudiay/Waters/
Smart/Romeo/Forbes
Brown/#14/2nd rounder
Tatum/GrantW/Giles
Baynes/Theis/Timelord
'21 Historical Draft
PG: Kyle Lowry / Mookie Blaylock / Mark Jackson
SG: Reggie Miller / Jeff Hornacek / Nick Anderson
SF: George Gervin / George McGinnis / Kyle Korver
PF: Connie Hawkins / Serge Ibaka / Josh Smith
C: Clint Capela / Bill Laimbeer / Jusuf Nurkic

Re: If Hayward opts out...Danny Ainge will be forced to pivot again
« Reply #2 on: October 28, 2020, 10:55:26 AM »

Offline CsBanner18

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Also you can look to split that 12 million between 2 players.

For me it would be either

Wood - 12 million
a Point for the 5 Million (Teague, Rondo,)


Kemba/PG/Waters
Smart/Romeo/Edwards
Brown/#14
Tatum/Grant
Wood/Theis/Timelord

The 14th would most likely have to be a sf/pf type and the second round picks the same thing.


Or you can split the 12 million and basically sign 2 players then use the 5 million in exceptions

Baynes - 8 mill
Giles - 3 million
Forbes - 4 million
Mudiay - 2 million

Kemba/Mudiay/Waters/
Smart/Romeo/Forbes
Brown/#14/2nd rounder
Tatum/GrantW/Giles
Baynes/Theis/Timelord

I like it! Splitting up the $12M is definitely a possibility. Baynes is always welcome back in Boston. I think Giles could evolve into a Theis role, just maybe not a starter like Theis. Definitely on board with Teague (or Augustin). Don’t see Rondo passing up his chance to repeat. Forbes has been a solid shooter for San Antonio

Re: If Hayward opts out...Danny Ainge will be forced to pivot again
« Reply #3 on: October 28, 2020, 11:13:29 AM »

Offline LilRip

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If Hayward does opt out, that would hurt us in a major way. Not only do we lose a good player, we also lose a tradable asset. In any case:

1. I’d target a big to replace Theis for 12M (would Gasol take a paycut?)
2. Try to draft a shooter
3. Yeah, I probably would sign IT4 to be a spark plug off the bench. It’d be a great story and we need a ball hog scorer anyway in the 2nd unit 

In General, I’d rather go top heavy than deep. Besides, we have guys like Langford and Timelord who deserve some minutes next year. Guys like Boogie Cousins are intriguing but I doubt they pick the C’s over a team like...LA or something.

- LilRip

Re: If Hayward opts out...Danny Ainge will be forced to pivot again
« Reply #4 on: October 28, 2020, 11:43:56 AM »

Offline bogg

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Boston's best options almost all involve them staying above the cap, Hayward just walking for no return would be a borderline disaster. If he opts out and it becomes clear he's leaving, I'd be pretty accommodating to get him to whatever team he wants to go to in a sign-and-trade. None of the options with cap space to sign him outright are all that great, so Ainge should be able to steer him to a playoff team that needs to make a trade, but even if he was dead-set on signing with, like, Atlanta I'd burn a first-round pick to turn it into a sign-and-trade for nothing but a big TPE.

You'd still retain the full MLE to play with, and the MLE plus a twenty-odd-million dollar TPE is more useful than 12 million or so in cap space plus the room mid-level.

Re: If Hayward opts out...Danny Ainge will be forced to pivot again
« Reply #5 on: October 28, 2020, 11:51:19 AM »

Offline CsBanner18

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Boston's best options almost all involve them staying above the cap, Hayward just walking for no return would be a borderline disaster. If he opts out and it becomes clear he's leaving, I'd be pretty accommodating to get him to whatever team he wants to go to in a sign-and-trade. None of the options with cap space to sign him outright are all that great, so Ainge should be able to steer him to a playoff team that needs to make a trade, but even if he was dead-set on signing with, like, Atlanta I'd burn a first-round pick to turn it into a sign-and-trade for nothing but a big TPE.

You'd still retain the full MLE to play with, and the MLE plus a twenty-odd-million dollar TPE is more useful than 12 million or so in cap space plus the room mid-level.

This is all true. Hayward opting out is basically the worst case scenario. I’m just preparing for it. I really made this post because a lot of people are under the assumption the Celtics can’t create cap space. That is untrue, it’s just not the best predicament to be in.

I would much rather ship Hayward out and receive a TPE, plus player X. I’m of the opinion that you NEVER let an asset walk for nothing. But ultimately, the decision is in Hayward’s hands- not Ainge.

If the S&T route is taken, we will have the full MLE as you stated. And we’d also have the BAE worth about $3.65M. Good players could still be brought to Boston. Christian Wood to Boston just becomes less likely in my opinion. The MLE puts Boston on an even playing field with all of the other contenders that want to offer him the MLE. 

Re: If Hayward opts out...Danny Ainge will be forced to pivot again
« Reply #6 on: October 28, 2020, 11:59:09 AM »

Offline bogg

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This is all true. Hayward opting out is basically the worst case scenario.

To be clear, Hayward opting out isn't even necessarily bad - Boston might be able to work some things to bring him back while coming close to ducking the tax and there are teams out there who would be attractive trade partners if he wanted a bigger role somewhere else. It's letting him walk for nothing other than maybe an extra three million or so to throw around in a bad free agent market that'd be seriously limiting to Boston's ceiling.

Re: If Hayward opts out...Danny Ainge will be forced to pivot again
« Reply #7 on: October 28, 2020, 12:48:10 PM »

Offline Tr1boy

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If Hayward does opt out, that would hurt us in a major way. Not only do we lose a good player, we also lose a tradable asset. In any case:

1. I’d target a big to replace Theis for 12M (would Gasol take a paycut?)
2. Try to draft a shooter
3. Yeah, I probably would sign IT4 to be a spark plug off the bench. It’d be a great story and we need a ball hog scorer anyway in the 2nd unit 

In General, I’d rather go top heavy than deep. Besides, we have guys like Langford and Timelord who deserve some minutes next year. Guys like Boogie Cousins are intriguing but I doubt they pick the C’s over a team like...LA or something.

I disagree.  Celtics were fine without him in the playoffs.  Team couldn't sustain high level play due to a short bench.

Celtics still have enough mouths to feed to produce offense.  Danny has to nail the draft and draft at least 2 solid contributors off the bench.  Ideally a better big player than Theis and a true floor general that also can shoot the ball

Re: If Hayward opts out...Danny Ainge will be forced to pivot again
« Reply #8 on: October 28, 2020, 12:53:46 PM »

Offline CsBanner18

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This is all true. Hayward opting out is basically the worst case scenario.

To be clear, Hayward opting out isn't even necessarily bad - Boston might be able to work some things to bring him back while coming close to ducking the tax and there are teams out there who would be attractive trade partners if he wanted a bigger role somewhere else. It's letting him walk for nothing other than maybe an extra three million or so to throw around in a bad free agent market that'd be seriously limiting to Boston's ceiling.

Yeah I think he opts out. I’m still not opposed to re-signing him to a deal that pays him no more than 4 years $100, with emphasis on other roster moves than can get us the MLE. If Hayward is traded, I’m fully expecting its to the Pacers. The biggest key for Hayward to IND IMO is finding a 3rd team for Myles Turner.

Re: If Hayward opts out...Danny Ainge will be forced to pivot again
« Reply #9 on: October 28, 2020, 02:55:17 PM »

Offline LilRip

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If Hayward does opt out, that would hurt us in a major way. Not only do we lose a good player, we also lose a tradable asset. In any case:

1. I’d target a big to replace Theis for 12M (would Gasol take a paycut?)
2. Try to draft a shooter
3. Yeah, I probably would sign IT4 to be a spark plug off the bench. It’d be a great story and we need a ball hog scorer anyway in the 2nd unit 

In General, I’d rather go top heavy than deep. Besides, we have guys like Langford and Timelord who deserve some minutes next year. Guys like Boogie Cousins are intriguing but I doubt they pick the C’s over a team like...LA or something.

I disagree.  Celtics were fine without him in the playoffs.  Team couldn't sustain high level play due to a short bench.

Celtics still have enough mouths to feed to produce offense.  Danny has to nail the draft and draft at least 2 solid contributors off the bench.  Ideally a better big player than Theis and a true floor general that also can shoot the ball

Look, I’ve been banging the “Trade Hayward” drum all year but let’s call a spade a spade. The team plays better with Hayward. This is usually what happens when you put good players around good players. They figure out how to make it work (unless their egos take over, which it has not for our team).

I think the C’s are under utilizing their talents though given overlap in skillsets and I think Hayward has enough gravitas to get us something pretty good in the trade market.

You talk about getting a bit better than Theis and/or a shooter/general. You know what would make it easier to acquire rather than wait for FA and create cap space? Trading GH


- LilRip

Re: If Hayward opts out...Danny Ainge will be forced to pivot again
« Reply #10 on: October 28, 2020, 03:57:50 PM »

Offline Moranis

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If Hayward leaves I wouldn't do much of anything. 
2023 Historical Draft - Brooklyn Nets - 9th pick

Bigs - Pau, Amar'e, Issel, McGinnis, Roundfield
Wings - Dantley, Bowen, J. Jackson
Guards - Cheeks, Petrovic, Buse, Rip

Re: If Hayward opts out...Danny Ainge will be forced to pivot again
« Reply #11 on: October 28, 2020, 04:39:34 PM »

Offline hwangjini_1

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below are possible free agent wings the celtics might consider.

https://theathletic.com/2165167/2020/10/28/shaquille-harrison-pat-connaughton-maurice-harkless-celtics-free-agency/

Shaquille Harrison
Justin Holiday
Bryn Forbes
E’Twaun Moore
Maurice Harkless
Kent Bazemore
Trevor Ariza
Pat Connaughton
Glenn Robinson III
I believe Gandhi is the only person who knew about real democracy — not democracy as the right to go and buy what you want, but democracy as the responsibility to be accountable to everyone around you. Democracy begins with freedom from hunger, freedom from unemployment, freedom from fear, and freedom from hatred.
- Vandana Shiva

Re: If Hayward opts out...Danny Ainge will be forced to pivot again
« Reply #12 on: October 29, 2020, 09:45:43 AM »

Offline bogg

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below are possible free agent wings the celtics might consider.

https://theathletic.com/2165167/2020/10/28/shaquille-harrison-pat-connaughton-maurice-harkless-celtics-free-agency/

Shaquille Harrison
Justin Holiday
Bryn Forbes
E’Twaun Moore
Maurice Harkless
Kent Bazemore
Trevor Ariza
Pat Connaughton
Glenn Robinson III

...and that list should give people an idea of why just letting Hayward walk for no return is a terrible idea.

Re: If Hayward opts out...Will Danny Ainge be forced to pivot again?
« Reply #13 on: October 29, 2020, 01:08:15 PM »

Offline johnnygreen

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If Hayward opts out, then there needs to be some serious internal discussions as to figuring out why Kyrie, Horford, and Hayward all decided to opt out of the final year of their deals and just leave. Each guy was a major acquisition and should have been the centerpiece to build around. Are Danny and Brad so infatuated with Tatum and Brown that they don’t respect the veteran star hierarchy? Or did Danny and Brad tell those guys (Horford and Hayward) one thing during recruitment, and do something differently going forward.

I do feel the Celtics are very similar to Philadelphia in that Simmons and Embiid seemingly have full autonomy, which may be the case with Tatum and Brown. It seems like all four guys are too young and have won nothing to deserve that status, and it may rub star veterans the wrong way.

Re: If Hayward opts out...Will Danny Ainge be forced to pivot again?
« Reply #14 on: October 29, 2020, 01:50:48 PM »

Offline tazzmaniac

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If Hayward opts out, then there needs to be some serious internal discussions as to figuring out why Kyrie, Horford, and Hayward all decided to opt out of the final year of their deals and just leave. Each guy was a major acquisition and should have been the centerpiece to build around. Are Danny and Brad so infatuated with Tatum and Brown that they don’t respect the veteran star hierarchy? Or did Danny and Brad tell those guys (Horford and Hayward) one thing during recruitment, and do something differently going forward.

I do feel the Celtics are very similar to Philadelphia in that Simmons and Embiid seemingly have full autonomy, which may be the case with Tatum and Brown. It seems like all four guys are too young and have won nothing to deserve that status, and it may rub star veterans the wrong way.
There is no mystery.  Kyrie was traded for and never wanted to be here.  He and KD wanted to team up.  The Sixers significantly overpaid to get Horford.  If Ainge's offer was close to the Sixers offer, I don't think Horford would have left.  If Hayward leaves this offseason, it will be because some team overpays to get him just like Horford. 

Simmons, Embiid, Tatum and Brown don't have full autonomy and there's no evidence they are rubbing star veterans the wrong way.  Embiid and Butler really got along.  If Embiid were to be traded, I wouldn't be surprised if he ended up in Miami teamed up with Butler.