Memphis Grizzlies 2018-2019 Season Watch Thread

[footey]

Well, next year Memphis still has 103M on the books but the following year that we are hoping to have the lottery pick unprotected, they will have only 44M on the books which gives them a lot of room to make a run at two big free agents which could make that pick not that attractive anymore. That combined with the draft picks they get this year and the next. I am not sure I am on board the lets hope we get lucky in 21 scenario and that they don't sign any big free agents that year to compete again. Time will tell.

I sure never expected the Kings to be this good this year and thought that was a no brainer to let it ride as well.

People keep saying this as evidence for wanting the Memphis pick now, but those same people never mention Brooklyn thinking that their future unprotected picks were no big deal and gifting us the #7, #3, and #1 picks in that order.  Also, note how those picks got better.

Aren't there big differences?  Brooklyn kept getting worse in part because they weren't reloading with new talent AND their cap sheet was clogged. The Grizz got to keep JJJ jr instead of shipping him to Boston, and if they retain this year's top-8 pick and next year's top-6 they'll have those players too. Three top 8 (or better) selections plus free agents, and zero incentive to tank. Consider, too, that if they land sixth or seventh worst in the standings they have a 30-something percent change to land top 4 and an 8-9% chance of getting Zion. Who knows what a top-six pick next year might be.

They might blow it and hand over a great pick, but it's not hard to see they might not.

Yeah, and Sacto had an entire team of high lottery picks this year who were in their 2nd, 3rd or 4th year, ripe to develop.  Memphis has JJJ and that's about it.  There are just as many differences between Sacto and Memphis as there are between Brooklyn and Memphis.

Well, in the relevant year JJJ (high lottery pick) will be in his third year, and if they pick someone this year (high pick) will be in his second year. Also, Dillon Brooks will be in his fourth or fifth year, depending how you count; Brooks was chosen 15th, so mid-first, but he had a very solid rookie season in 2017-18 before losing most of this year to injury. Caboclo looks like another young, capable rotation player. I can easily see 2-3 very good young players in that group, to which they can add capable vet FAs.

Will they succeed? Who knows? After all, Phoenix is terrible and they pick high year after year. But I'd say that the likelihood of a top-five pick in 2021 isn't all that good.

That said, the only reason I would really want the pick to convey this year is if the salary helps us get AD without sending Smart or Brown. Otherwise, it's just better to spread this pick out into a different year. Maybe it's better, maybe it's not; it probably won't be much worse, but at least it would be in a different year and we would not have a fist full of picks this year.

I love JJJ, I rated him higher in the Young Player Redraft than anyone else.  That said, JJJ, plus a disappointing prospect in the #6-8 range this year, plus Dillon Brooks does not remotely equal De'Aaron Fox, Buddy Hield, WCS, Bojan, Bagley, Giles, and Jackson who they parlayed into Harrison Barnes.  That's an entire near-playoff rotation of 3x the young talent that's also mostly further along in their development.

Couple of thoughts.

1 - You left out a pick and already decided that this year's pick is trash. Can't do either if we're gaming this out.

This year they will probably pick in the 6-8 range, but there is a healthy chance (37-9%) that their pick will be in the 1-4 range. We can't discount that to zero until the lottery is over. One possible outcome is that they will get Zion, Barrett, Morant, or Culver to put next to JJJ.

And, if we are thinking about the value of their 2021 pick to the Celtics, you also have to factor in whoever they pick in the 1-6 range next year (we're assuming the pick doesn't come to us next year).  So there is JJJ, this year's pick, and next year's pick, all top-of-the-draft picks.

To that we *then* we add Dillon and Caboclo, who look capable of being rotation players on good teams, and whoever they can pick up in free agency. I have no idea who they will get (nobody does) but they will have abundant room under the cap. If the young talent is promising and the team treats the players well it's not hard to see good players wanting to go there.

After all that, will they be a dumpster fire?  They might. But there are also a lot of scenarios in which they're a mediocre team - picking no earlier than ninth and possibly later.

I still see an upside in delaying the pick - having four this year isn't ideal - and given the way the lottery works there is some value in having the pick only after the protections come off. So, net, I'm still OK with it rolling over, provided that doesn't affect who we have to send Memphis in an AD trade. If my choices are: (1) send Tatum + Smart or Brown + salary and picks; or (2) Send Tatum + salary and picks, I choose door number 2.

Kind of irrelevant what you or I think about whether Memphis pick rolling over is better or worse from Celtics POV. As a trade asset, seems to be front office consensus that it is a better trade chip (hence, better value) to Celtics if it rolls over.  Every report I have read indicates as much.

Am I right?

[GreenEnvy]

If it conveys this season, it will help for salary purposes but probably hurt in terms of value. We would probably have to give up more assets by including the #9 pick than a future unprotected pick on a lottery team that should be worse moving forward.

[smokeablount]

Well, next year Memphis still has 103M on the books but the following year that we are hoping to have the lottery pick unprotected, they will have only 44M on the books which gives them a lot of room to make a run at two big free agents which could make that pick not that attractive anymore. That combined with the draft picks they get this year and the next. I am not sure I am on board the lets hope we get lucky in 21 scenario and that they don't sign any big free agents that year to compete again. Time will tell.

I sure never expected the Kings to be this good this year and thought that was a no brainer to let it ride as well.

People keep saying this as evidence for wanting the Memphis pick now, but those same people never mention Brooklyn thinking that their future unprotected picks were no big deal and gifting us the #7, #3, and #1 picks in that order.  Also, note how those picks got better.

Aren't there big differences?  Brooklyn kept getting worse in part because they weren't reloading with new talent AND their cap sheet was clogged. The Grizz got to keep JJJ jr instead of shipping him to Boston, and if they retain this year's top-8 pick and next year's top-6 they'll have those players too. Three top 8 (or better) selections plus free agents, and zero incentive to tank. Consider, too, that if they land sixth or seventh worst in the standings they have a 30-something percent change to land top 4 and an 8-9% chance of getting Zion. Who knows what a top-six pick next year might be.

They might blow it and hand over a great pick, but it's not hard to see they might not.

Yeah, and Sacto had an entire team of high lottery picks this year who were in their 2nd, 3rd or 4th year, ripe to develop.  Memphis has JJJ and that's about it.  There are just as many differences between Sacto and Memphis as there are between Brooklyn and Memphis.

Well, in the relevant year JJJ (high lottery pick) will be in his third year, and if they pick someone this year (high pick) will be in his second year. Also, Dillon Brooks will be in his fourth or fifth year, depending how you count; Brooks was chosen 15th, so mid-first, but he had a very solid rookie season in 2017-18 before losing most of this year to injury. Caboclo looks like another young, capable rotation player. I can easily see 2-3 very good young players in that group, to which they can add capable vet FAs.

Will they succeed? Who knows? After all, Phoenix is terrible and they pick high year after year. But I'd say that the likelihood of a top-five pick in 2021 isn't all that good.

That said, the only reason I would really want the pick to convey this year is if the salary helps us get AD without sending Smart or Brown. Otherwise, it's just better to spread this pick out into a different year. Maybe it's better, maybe it's not; it probably won't be much worse, but at least it would be in a different year and we would not have a fist full of picks this year.

I love JJJ, I rated him higher in the Young Player Redraft than anyone else.  That said, JJJ, plus a disappointing prospect in the #6-8 range this year, plus Dillon Brooks does not remotely equal De'Aaron Fox, Buddy Hield, WCS, Bojan, Bagley, Giles, and Jackson who they parlayed into Harrison Barnes.  That's an entire near-playoff rotation of 3x the young talent that's also mostly further along in their development.

Couple of thoughts.

 You left out a pick and already decided that this year's pick is trash. Can't do either if we're gaming this out.

This year they will probably pick in the 6-8 range, but there is a healthy chance (37-9%) that their pick will be in the 1-4 range. We can't discount that to zero until the lottery is over. One possible outcome is that they will get Zion, Barrett, Morant, or Culver to put next to JJJ.

And, if we are thinking about the value of their 2021 pick to the Celtics, you also have to factor in whoever they pick in the 1-6 range next year (we're assuming the pick doesn't come to us next year).  So there is JJJ, this year's pick, and next year's pick, all top-of-the-draft picks.

To that we *then* we add Dillon and Caboclo, who look capable of being rotation players on good teams, and whoever they can pick up in free agency. I have no idea who they will get (nobody does) but they will have abundant room under the cap. If the young talent is promising and the team treats the players well it's not hard to see good players wanting to go there.

After all that, will they be a dumpster fire?  They might. But there are also a lot of scenarios in which they're a mediocre team - picking no earlier than ninth and possibly later.

I still see an upside in delaying the pick - having four this year isn't ideal - and given the way the lottery works there is some value in having the pick only after the protections come off. So, net, I'm still OK with it rolling over, provided that doesn't affect who we have to send Memphis in an AD trade. If my choices are: (1) send Tatum + Smart or Brown + salary and picks; or (2) Send Tatum + salary and picks, I choose door number 2.

The point is that young big men don’t move the needle in terms of winning unless they are generational talents, and 2nd year players in general almost never do. Kevin Durant pretty much didn’t. I don’t think Jarrett Culver or the like will, and as I’ve said many times, it doesn’t even matter. It’s a potential-driven draft and the potential to get a top 3 pick in 2021 is worth a lot more than #9 this year, and you can trade it before Kings-like disappointment potentially sets in.

[No Nickname]

How funny would it be if Memphis finishes tonight locked into the #8 spot (pick does not convey) and then Sacramento jumps into the lottery which would push Memphis into the #9 spot.

If Sacto jumps to #1 = Horrible
If Sacto jumps to #2/#3 = I'll be fine taking the #9 Memphis pick this year even though I prefer for it to roll over and the C's keep it.

[smokeablount]

How funny would it be if Memphis finishes tonight locked into the #8 spot (pick does not convey) and then Sacramento jumps into the lottery which would push Memphis into the #9 spot.

If Sacto jumps to #1 = Horrible
If Sacto jumps to #2/#3 = I'll be fine taking the #9 Memphis pick this year even though I prefer for it to roll over and the C's keep it.

Yeah, I've been trying to tell myself that there's no way this outcome will happen for weeks now... I'll be honest... I'm slightly worried.

[No Nickname]

How funny would it be if Memphis finishes tonight locked into the #8 spot (pick does not convey) and then Sacramento jumps into the lottery which would push Memphis into the #9 spot.

If Sacto jumps to #1 = Horrible
If Sacto jumps to #2/#3 = I'll be fine taking the #9 Memphis pick this year even though I prefer for it to roll over and the C's keep it.

Yeah, I've been trying to tell myself that there's no way this outcome will happen for weeks now... I'll be honest... I'm slightly worried.

If Memphis loses tonight they'll be tied for the #6 pick.  If they lose the coin toss and end up #7 we could weather the storm of a Sacto (or any single team higher than seven) jumping ahead of them and pushing them to #9.

But if two teams jump a #7 Memphis then the pick conveys.

If Memphis wins and Dallas loses it will all come down to a three-way coin toss I believe.  I don't know how that works in the world of physics.


 

[keevsnick]

According to Ryan Bernardoni (@dangercart) on twitter a Memphis loss results in a 9% chance of the pick conveying. If MEM win, and DAL wins then it's a 27% chance. If MEM wins and DAL loses there's a 44% chance it conveys. These are the odds before random drawing to break the ties. If MEM wins, DAL loses and the MEM lost the tie break drawing and fell to the 9th spot there would be like a 73.7 percent chance it conveys. For a full break down of all possible outcomes he has a break down on his twitter.

[rondofan1255]

Durant and Thompson starting with Bogut Cook Bell

[CelticSooner]

Durant and Thompson starting with Bogut Cook Bell

Excelente

[Vox_Populi]

Article from Athletic today ft. interview with Mike Conley strongly suggests he will ask for a trade. He's basically been an All-Star this entire season and is the kind of star that can raise up the young guys.

Feels bad rooting for a team to lose a great locker room guy and star but oh, well.

[rondofan1255]

Article from Athletic today ft. interview with Mike Conley strongly suggests he will ask for a trade. He's basically been an All-Star this entire season and is the kind of star that can raise up the young guys.

Feels bad rooting for a team to lose a great locker room guy and star but oh, well.

Wouldn’t be surprising in today’s NBA culture

Commentator said before game Conley said See you next year before todays game

Also, Grizzlies started out 6-6 from 3 before Rabb’s miss. They were 8-11 to start yesterday’s Game too

[CelticSooner]

Well hope for another Memphis collapse.

[Vox_Populi]

Article from Athletic today ft. interview with Mike Conley strongly suggests he will ask for a trade. He's basically been an All-Star this entire season and is the kind of star that can raise up the young guys.

Feels bad rooting for a team to lose a great locker room guy and star but oh, well.

Wouldn’t be surprising in today’s NBA culture

Commentator said before game Conley said See you next year before todays game

Also, Grizzlies started out 6-6 from 3 before Rabb’s miss. They were 8-11 to start yesterday’s Game too

Let's hope for another collapse then because they lead the Warriors by 18 at the half and Golden State have nothing to play for. Would be surprised if Durant and Thompson play much longer. Dang you Steve Kerr...

[rondofan1255]

MEM apparently set a franchise scoring record for a first half.

If MEM holds on, the wait begins for 7-9 coin flip tiebreaker whatever you call it in a few days

[hwangjini_1]

in case some folks are confused about coin flips or want to know more about how the celtics' picks may play out, there is this article:

https://www.dangerc.art/blog/celtics-final-day-draft-scenarios