2011 CB Draft Southwest Division Press Conferences

[RebusRankin]

SAN ANTONE:

Rebus,love the additions of Afflalo and Hill to the starting unit.  I was very cold on Afflalo when he first came into the league but i've since changed my tune.

After checking thru Ty Lawsons numbers in the playoffs for my own presser, i came across some stats that suggested a regression on the part of Russell Westbrook.  I'd like to just post this past year's playoff performance for RDub with the year prior:

09/10: 21pts/6rbs/6asts/47%fg/42%3pt/2.3turnovers
10/11: 24pts/5rbs/6asts/39%fg/29%3pt/4.6turnovers

Those are some pretty awful numbers in terms of efficiency and a regression from impressive numbers the year before.  All of this capped off by being benched in the 4th quarter of game 2 v Dallas.

You mentioned that you expect the scoring and playmaking burden to fall on Westbrook, and you expect him to handle it a la Derrick Rose.  My questions are as follows:

why should we expect Westbrook to go from a 4th quarter benching to an MVP candidate?  How do you explain those turnover rates and why will he improve those?

The turnover rate, I believe will improve just due to maturity. He's only 22 and been a pg for three years and is already 2nd team all NBA.

After the benching he did put up 27, 6 and 6 showing his competiveness and talent. He didn't sulk, he raised he play.

Rebus,

I agree that he is still maturing, and after game two's benching he did put up a ton of points, but again the efficiency factor: in the 3 games after his benching his AST:TOs was 17:16, shot 37% from the field, and 13% from 3.

I don't mean to harp on Westbrook but i came across a lot of this during my own presser.  I like the kid a lot but those 3 games post-benching, to me, don't indicate that he "raised his play." They also lost those 3 games.

The losses were a team thing. Frankly OKC's biggest issue was nobody could stop Dirk.

I mean he raised his game in terms of contributions, I agree the efficency is a concern but I see it as a blip versus a very good defensive team. 

But since the issue has been raised, Rose's effeciency and play versus Miami dropped considerably from the first two rounds of the play-offs and the regular season. Do you have the same concern about him?

[Roy H.]

Cleveland:

I think I have you first in your division based upon the strength of your starting bigs.  However, your backups concern me.  Has any division winner / championship contender in recent memory had backup bigs as unproven as Mozgov / Udoh / Booker? 

[Roy H.]

San Antonio:

I'm having a hard time deciding between you, Cleveland, and Memphis.  I have it basically as a 3-way tie, but if I had to rank (and I do) I'd have you ever so slightly in third place. 

How do you stack up with those other two teams, and why should you prevail?

[The Walker Wiggle]

WINE & GOLD

What a scary inside game you have going.  I would pay good money to see Gasol and Griffin in the same frontcourt. Gallo and Reddick are great shooters to place around the 3pt line.

I'm not sold on Rubio, though.  His time will come, but i don't think he's ready to be a starting PG on a championship team as of today.

Two questions:

What do you make of these ugly Euroleague numbers for Rubio:

6.5 ppg, 3.3 rpg, slightly less than a 2:1 asst/to ratio, 31% fg, 22% 3pt???

Well, there's a lot to unpack. First, Rubio isn't going to be a significant scoring threat and the Cavaliers don't need him to be one. Both Griffin and Gasol command double teams. Rubio is the team's fifth option. Yes, team's will be able to sag off Rubio with some success, much the same way they do against Rondo and the Celtics. But Rubio is actually a better jump shooter than Rondo, evinced by his 87 FT%. He actually has a solid set shot and there's no hitch in his jumper. But he appears to be terrible at squaring up, and so shooting off the dribble.

I actually expect we'll see some improvement in his scoring and shooting %s, but I'm not relying on that in my projection, and either way he's a below the rim player, mediocre finisher and cannot reliably hit the NBA three pointer. His success will be as a playmaker, rebounder and defender.

Which takes us back to those "ugly Euroleague numbers." Rubio's 3.3 rebounds, led all point guards in the ACB and if he can grab 8.4% of rebounds, as Hollinger's translation indicates, he would lead all point guards in the NBA. Russell Westbrook was tops in rebounding from the point guard spot last season, grabbing 7.7% of available rebounds.

Scoring and scoring efficiency are difficult to predict across leagues, while rebounding and assist stats tend to by fairly predictive of NBA production. Rubio has had a lot of success passing, rebounding - and stealing - the basketball so there is cause for optimism.

[The Walker Wiggle]

TWW, what kinda minutes do you expect to see out of Rubio?

Why start Rubio over Aaron Brooks? Why not ease Rubio into the NBA considering this team's expectations?

For at least the first half of the season Rubio and Brooks will be in a near time share, 20-25 mpg for Rubio, 20-25 mpg for Brooks and 5-10 mpg for Eric Bledsoe, with Brooks seeing minutes at the two some nights, and both Brooks and Bledsoe's minutes fluctuating if either catches fire. Although Rubio will play upwards of 32 minutes on any given night, the Cavs have to keep in mind the mpg and shorter schedule he's accustomed to. How does that sound?

As for why Cleveland chooses not to start Aaron Brooks, first, we believe Rubio will be a starting calibre point guard - no, not a star - from day one, much like other recent lottery picks with question marks, including Westbrook and Curry. He's already used to a higher level of competition. And from a player development philosophy the Cavaliers also believe in set roles and allowing rookies to play through their mistakes. We also want to pair Rubio with Gasol in the starting five for obvious reasons.

Second, Brooks - who isn't without question marks of his own after last season - is a better fit in the second unit alongside a bigger SG than Redick. Both Howard and Reggie Williams are 6'7". And Howard in particular is a plus defender who can take on some of the playmaking responsibility. Although Brooks is a capable ball handler he's a scorer first and playmaker second. The Cavs prefer Rubio's size, defense and passing in the starting five.

[mgent]

Spurs:  How do you think one of the best perimeter defenses will mesh with possibly the worst frontcourt defense?

[The Walker Wiggle]

WWW, what kind of points are you expecting out of Redick? Gallinari?

In five starts last season Redick averaged 14.6 on 46% shooting. He started the season in a shooting slump and struggled late with an abdominal tear that required offseason surgery, in the 49 games between he averaged 11.2 ppg on 46.3% shooting from the field, including 43.3% on three pointers and a TS% of 61.6%. So those numbers seem with in reach and 12 ppg a realistic mark.

While the Cavaliers are in good shape if Gallo simply maintains his current scoring, but I'll bet he averages 17-18 ppg next season. And the actual Nuggets likely need even more offense than that from him.

[Who]

I think Westbrook will be more effective / efficient offensively on that Spurs team.

Last year in Oklahoma, they were giving big minutes to a big man rotation of Perk, Ibaka and N.Collison + had a non-shooter like Thabo Sefolosha on the wing.

In contrast, the Spurs have two talented offensive big men like Carlos Boozer + Chris Kaman and have better spacing on the wing with a guy like Grant Hill vs Thabo.

I reckon the improvement (offensively) in the players around Westbrook will help him become more effective / efficient offensively than he was last year.

[Who]

I think the top seven teams in the West are in the two divisions.

I have only squad from this division making the playoffs. San Antonio.

[The Walker Wiggle]

Cleveland:

I think I have you first in your division based upon the strength of your starting bigs.  However, your backups concern me.  Has any division winner / championship contender in recent memory had backup bigs as unproven as Mozgov / Udoh / Booker?  

Well, I'd rather first see how other teams intend to keep my starters, Griffin and Gasol in check - 38 and 37 mpg in 2010-11 respectively - before worrying overmuch about my reserves.

Still you make a good point. Channing Frye is certainly missed. But Who convinced me that it was a mistake to pass on Brooks, and I seized the opportunity to acquire him when he went on the block. I may have to return to the question, as I need to find a little extra time in the day to better sell my offense-defense reserves, Mozgov and Udoh. If nothing else both are being discussed as possible starters next season.

Powe and Davis circa 2007-08? I just need to convince Rasheed Wallace into coming out of retirement for the playoffs as my P.J. Brown.

[RebusRankin]

Roy,

When it comes to Cleveland, I concede they have the division's best 4/5 combo. However I have a better back court and starting SF. They are starting an unproven pg, who struggled in Europe and a bench player at SG in Reddick. They also have a weak bench, whereas I feel I have a 6th man in Carter who is significantly better than any player on their bench and both of their starting guards. My backup bigs are also more proven. So to summerize, they have the advantage at the 4/5, I have it at the 1-3 and bench. I think that puts me ahead.

[RebusRankin]

Roy,

When it comes to Memphis, I feel Westbrook and Rose are a wash. Kaman and Boozer are both proven players, who have been all-stars whereas Memphis has a starting PF in Humphries coming off a career year on a bad team and a decent center in Hibbert. I feel I'm better at both spots. Given Prince's injuries and Hill's 3 years of health, coupled with Hill's better all around game, I feel I'm better at the 3. Ray is 36, going on 37 and historically we see a decline in SGs at that age.

When it comes to the bench Bibby struggled in Atlanta and Miami last year, while Ridnour played well for Minnesota. Vince Carter is again better than any bench player on Memphis but especially Korver (one dimensional) or Redd (injured for past few years). Patterson hasn't shown more at this point than Johnson. I also think having a vet like Thomas is an advantage to my team.

[The Walker Wiggle]

Roy,

When it comes to Cleveland, I concede they have the division's best 4/5 combo. However I have a better back court and starting SF.

With respect, since I certainly rate San Antonio highly, it can't simply be taken on faith that the Spurs wings, Hill and Afflalo - better defensively and both players I like - hold a meaningful advantage over Gallinari and Redick. Gallinari is the hardest cover of the four and has all the upside. While Redick and Afflalo occupy the same NBA nitch. I'd say it's a wash, with wiggle room for personal preference.

Also just because I enjoy being proven right, I'd like to note that a number of our fellow GMs felt Hill was too long in the tooth to be a full season starter when I drafted him for Houston two years ago.

[KCattheStripe]

I'd say it's a wash, with wiggle room for personal preference.

Get it?

[RebusRankin]

Roy,

When it comes to Cleveland, I concede they have the division's best 4/5 combo. However I have a better back court and starting SF.

With respect, since I certainly rate San Antonio highly, it can't simply be taken on faith that the Spurs wings, Hill and Afflalo - better defensively and both players I like - hold a meaningful advantage over Gallinari and Redick. Gallinari is the hardest cover of the four and has all the upside. While Redick and Afflalo occupy the same NBA nitch. I'd say it's a wash, with wiggle room for personal preference.

Also just because I enjoy being proven right, I'd like to note that a number of our fellow GMs felt Hill was too long in the tooth to be a full season starter when I drafted him for Houston two years ago.

With respect, Gallinari has put up big numbers on teams that run and gun in NY and Denver. I also think he's reached his ceiling. I do concede he's a tough cover. Hill has shown the past two year's he's not over the Hill.

Affalo is a starter, Reddick is not. Affalo actually shot the 3 better than Reddick last year and shooting is Reddick's stength. He is nowhere near Affalo's level as a defender.