#42 straight to the rafters (if 2 championships and re-sign for discount)

[KGs Knee]

I can't help but laugh at the fact a thread about Horford devolved so quickly into a debate about Kyrie. Talk about off-topic.

Anyways, bringing the discussion back to Horford, I think there is a chance he could have his number retired here. If Horford plays here another five seasons, which would take his through his age 36 season, that would give him 7 years in Boston.

Horford has already helped guide the team to 2 ECF appearances and the best regular season record his first year here. If he stays another five years and the team wins a couple of titles in that time frame, and Horford makes one or two more all-Star appearances, he'll have a decent case for having his number retired. Also factoring into that equation will be the fact he was the first major free agent to sign with Boston coming from another team.

I'm not sure what percentage I'd put on him achieving enough benchmarks to get his number retired here, but it is certainly possible.

[celticsclay]

If things go right, Tatum and Brown have the best chances to get in the rafters with the other all time Celtic greats.

If Kyrie stays he has to have a good chance.  He's already elite, still young, and based on his skills, I think his game will age significantly better than your average quick scoring guard.

His game actually won't age very well.  He relies a great deal on his athleticism and ball handling to get open, which will diminish significantly as he ages.  He also isn't a super elite shooter and isn't a great catch and shoot type player (he is very good at both those things, but not elite such that he can survive lesser physical skills).

Every PG under 6'4" relies on their athleticism and speed to get open.  The players generally considered to be good comps for Irving are Lillard and Wall, and they are significantly worse shooters that rely even more on speed.  Kyrie also shot 49-41-89 last year so I'm gonna go ahead and laugh at your complaints about his shooting.

Irving was 3rd on the team in 3 point shooting percentage (among regulars).  Among all players with at least 2 3 point attempts a game, Irving was 37th in 3PT%.  That isn't elite.  It is good, but it isn't elite.

Well Kyrie shot 6.8 3's a game, so where does he rank among players with 6.5 or more?  Also 41% 3 point shooting on 6.8 attempts as the #1 option on your team is good enough, your 'super elite' grade is irrelevant.  He doesn't need to be 'super elite' for his game to age well.

Of course it matters, because he uses his athleticism to get open.  Once that fades, he won't get open as easily and he is not a great catch and shoot shooter.

You're pretty much just ignoring all my counterpoints.

1) What players that shot 6.5+ 3's a game had a higher percentage than Kyrie?

2) Who else shot 49-41-89 last year?

3) Name some multiple time all stars under 6'4" besides Curry whose game will age better.

Irving is in his prime, we are talking about the future.  I merely said he wasn't an elite outside shooter and used his athleticism to get open.  And why just do some arbitrary number like 6.5 (3 were better), why not say 5 (9 were better), or 4 (19 were better). 

A guy like JJ Redick aged well because his game was not predicated on athleticism to really get open.  He comes off screens and bombs away and hits them well.  Most ball dominant point guards don't age very well and most of them are always getting hurt.  Chris Paul is the prototype for that sort of player.  A guy like Kyle Lowry, who uses his body well, also could have aged well, but he got hurt and had a big drop off.  You see that is what happens to little guys. 

Irving has already had multiple major knee injuries and surgeries.  He is likely always going to have knee issues and he will likely always have nagging injuries.  Once he loses a step, he will lose his greatest advantage and that is the ability to get open using his elite ball handling.  Irving will not age well because he needs athleticism to create open looks for himself and others.  I think he still has 3 to 4 great years left, but I wouldn't expect much of anything from Irving after he is 30.

Yeah Reddick aged well but he's one of the best shooters ever, and he's never been close to an all star.  You are missing the point that if you are a multiple time all star, it's almost certain that you are at least as athletic as Kyrie, and thus you will lose athleticism when you age.  But Kyrie isn't super athletic, he's quick, but he's craftier and more skilled than he is athletic, or even quick.  A guy as skilled as he is should be able to remain a good player.

I want to know who will age well that is as accomplished as Kyrie, and since there probably isn't anyone under 6'4", I think that relative to his peers, he will age well (his peers being guys like Lillard and Wall).  I also think if you shoot 49-41-89 that you are a pretty elite shooter. 

It seems like you either think there are only 5 or so good players in the NBA whose game will age well, or you aren't considering relative performance among comparable players.  IE, it seems like your desire to play devil's advocate is stronger than your desire to be realistic. 

I chose 6.5 shots because you sneakily chose 2 shots as your pre-req, and you did so in order to rank Kyrie low as a shooter.  But if you knew about volume vs. efficiency you wouldn't be comparing the % of a guy that shoots twice to a guy that shoots 6.8 times.  So I chose 6.5 to look at volume shooters, because I bet Kyrie looks better then.  We both picked a biased #.

Kyrie isn't really that accomplished in the scheme of things.  Just 1 3rd Team All NBA, though 5 all star games.  I think he will have a pretty similar career arc as a guy like Tony Parker, who pretty clearly peaked at 30 and got noticeably worse every year after that age.  Parker obviously wasn't the scorer (or shooter) that Irving is, so I'm not comparing that aspect of their game, but Parker was a guy that relied on his speed, ball handling, etc. to create shots for himself and others and once he lost that, he was never the same. Parker ended up with 1 3rd Team and 3 2nd Team All NBA, finished consecutive years at 5 and 6 in MVP voting and had 6 all star games, so is pretty similar to Irving in that regard (a good though never great player compared to his peers).  Parker, like Irving, also had a lot of high level success in the post season as his teams 2nd best player (though Parker did win a Finals MVP over Duncan one season). 

I just don't see Irving as a John Stockton type player, that will still be performing at a high level well into his 30's (that is even assuming Irving stays healthy, which I find highly unlikely given his injury history).

For the record, I absolutely could see Hayward still playing at a high level into his mid-30's.  Obviously, not at his peak level, but I think he could still be an all star type level at age 34/35.  His game should age pretty well.  Much like Horford's has.

I don't necessarily know if the all-NBA births are the best measure right now because the guard position is probably the most loaded it has ever been. I think you could be the 10 best player in the league right now at guard and not make a first or second all NBA team. Westbrook, Harden, Curry all have won mvps in the last couple of years and are in their prime. Then you got derozen, wall, lillard, Irving, oladipo, thompson etc. I don't think the position was quite as strong when Brandon Roy and Ginobli were making multiple teams as guards.

If you look at the all-star berths they are at pretty different level. Parker's not making any more all-star games and finishes his career with 6. Irving has played in 5 at age 26. Even if he really flames out at 30 like you are suggesting (which is happening less with developments in nutrition and sports medicine) he would still probably make 9-10 all-star games. That is just a different level than parker.

[jpotter33]

If things go right, Tatum and Brown have the best chances to get in the rafters with the other all time Celtic greats.

If Kyrie stays he has to have a good chance.  He's already elite, still young, and based on his skills, I think his game will age significantly better than your average quick scoring guard.

His game actually won't age very well.  He relies a great deal on his athleticism and ball handling to get open, which will diminish significantly as he ages. He also isn't a super elite shooter and isn't a great catch and shoot type player (he is very good at both those things, but not elite such that he can survive lesser physical skills).

Pure, unadulterated nonsense.

Kyrie’s game is about as skills-based and not reliant on athleticism as they come at the guard position, at least for star-level players.

[celticsclay]

If things go right, Tatum and Brown have the best chances to get in the rafters with the other all time Celtic greats.

If Kyrie stays he has to have a good chance.  He's already elite, still young, and based on his skills, I think his game will age significantly better than your average quick scoring guard.

His game actually won't age very well.  He relies a great deal on his athleticism and ball handling to get open, which will diminish significantly as he ages. He also isn't a super elite shooter and isn't a great catch and shoot type player (he is very good at both those things, but not elite such that he can survive lesser physical skills).

Pure, unadulterated nonsense.

Kyrie’s game is about as skills-based and not reliant on athleticism as they come at the guard position, at least for star-level players.

I do think Kyries drives are helped a lot by his athleticism. However, he may have the best handles in the league and that is a skill that will age pretty well.

[18isGREATERthan72]

It's news to me that Kyrie isn't an elite shooter...

I mean, he's not Kyle Korver / Steph Curry elite, but he is still in the elite class.  You can't really compare a guy like Korver who is strictly a catch and shoot kind of guy and Kyrie mostly shoots off the dribble.  Curry shoots like Korver all while shooting off the dribble, but he is very much an outlier and defines the top 1% of the top 1%

That doesn't mean Kyrie isn't an elite shooter though... lol

You've basically proven my point though.  Irving gets open off the dribble.  That is why I don't think he ages well.

Him aging well, and him being an elite shooter are two very different points.

[mef730]

Pierce is going in the rafters.fullstop. end of story

Isn't he already in the rafters?

No, just his jersey.

Mike