We've been talking about this in the coronavirus thread in the CE Forum but this type of emerging flu pandemic is what public health officials have been fearing for years, because the nature of a flu-type respiratory illness make it very hard to stop without enforcing draconian measures that cause significant disruption to daily life. Even other coronaviruses like SARS were easier to contain because it was obvious when people were contagious and it was harder to catch. With Covid-19 it has an R0 (reproductive number) between 1.4 to 4.8, depending on which country is being measured. It's much easier to catch, people can have it and be asymptomatic and never get sick from it, and they can then pass it on to others who are at higher risk.
Given it's now a pandemic (global rather than regional) the challenge is really to move from containment to surveillance, particularly of those who are most as risk for it such as the elderly or people with HIV or compromised immune systems, and making sure that there is adequate supportive care (hospital beds, ventilators, masks, etc) for those who have complications arising from it like pneumonia. Doing things like banning public gatherings, practicing social distancing, those things help to mitigate the spread of the illness, even though those spreading it may end up being asymptomatic. Like Gobert, it's more than likely he ends up with an experience just like having the flu. It's who he, and others who are infected, pass it to which present the real public health challenge. Once enough people have it, it's just like trying to avoid catching the flu every year - sometimes you get lucky other times you don't. It's the network effect. The only sure fire way to stop it spreading is to prevent people from having contact with each other till it burns out.
The challenge for everyone is are we prepared for a significant disruption to our day to day lives, in order to contain this and prevent it from becoming endemic like the seasonal flu that comes back every year? Eventually a vaccine will be developed, maybe in a year or so if they fast track the FDA approvals, but the public health goal would be to minimize the number of fatalities in those higher risk segments of the population. But until that time, when governments are looking to how China stopped the spread of it within their own country by locking down 150 million people, basically not allowed to leave their houses (no going to father daughter dances or going clubbing because you feel ok for those folks), and police and health officials going door to door in Hubei province and taking people away for quarantine if they show symptoms. Does our country, and others in the West, have the appetite to accept that type of disruption to nip this in the bud? That might be the difference between this being nipped in the bud with extreme measures now vs it becoming a seasonal Covid-19 endemic that we have to get a shot for every year once they develop a vaccine.
Obviously conditions are rife for panic, including panic buying of household goods, food etc, especially as we hear more and more cases come out in the coming days (and they will). It's important not to panic and think the sky is falling in and you have to buy up all the toilet paper, but to be fully informed of the situation, to be understanding of whatever public health measures are being put in place - those measures are not be there to protect you necessarily if you're young and healthy, but rather to try minimize any role that you may inadvertently play in spreading Covid-19 to those who are more at risk.
Topic: Coronavirus and Pro/NCAA Sports; Marcus Smart tests positive (Read 204472 times)