What Danny is really doing and why we should stop jumping to conclusions

[mmmmm]

As far as the draft goes, as with any GM, he has had some great picks, some dogs, and the jury is out on the more recent picks who need more playing time to accurately determine their worth. For every good pick, I will give you JR Giddens, Troy Bell, Randy Foye, Gerald Green and Jujuan Johnson. Of course, all GMs have hits and misses and I have no idea where Ainge ranks in terms of his draft record.

Hmm .... Giddens (pick #30), Gerald Green (#18) & Johnson (#27)?   Getting _anything_ out of picks that late in the draft is like a small miracle.

He also converted Gerald Green as part of the package for KG and Johnson became Courtney Lee --- so he definitely got excellent value out of those picks. 

Giddens was worthless - but so are the vast majority of picks at #30.

Bell wasn't Danny's pick - he was picked for Memphis.  Bell and Jones were traded on draft night for Marcus Banks and Kendrick Perkins.   Banks was a flop, but not as big a flop as Bell, and Perkins was Perk --- so Danny pretty clearly won that one.

Foye, similarly was a draft night trade to the Trail Blazers so he wasn't Danny's choice - just part of the deal that brought Ratlif & Telfair - who were parts of the KG trade.

Rondo (21), Bradley (19) & Sully (21) were all fantastic value picks deep in the 1st round, as were Big Al (15), Perkins (27), Delonte (24) & Tony Allen (25).  Heck, Gomes at #50, Davis (35) & Erden (60!!) were like turning lead into gold!  Deep second round picks have bigger odds of never playing in the NBA at all than providing the huge court minutes that those three did.

He flipped the #5 (JeffGreen) in 2007 for HoF shooter Ray Allen, for god's sake!

And then he flipped Perkins (#27) to get Jeff Green back!   Plus another #1 (Fab)!!!

Every GM has hits and misses in the draft.  The NBA is extremely elite.   When you actually understand how freaking rare it is for any pick out of the top 10 to amount to anything, you start to realize how well Danny has drafted.

I totally discount the 'failures' of any of the picks past the middle of the first round.  Anything good you get past that is pure luxury.    The odds of a #15 being even 'starter' quality are only about 1 in 3.   When you get down to #20 and below?  Extremely rare.

Gerald Green is really the only relatively 'high' pick that was actually Danny's pick that ended up a bust - but even he proved useful as a trade piece.

Has he been perfect?  No.  But any objective measure would show Danny's picks to have far out performed the average at those slots.

And evaluating a GM's draft record isn't just about the names attached to those draft slots in the basketball-reference.com listing.  It's also includes the ultimate value realized if he dealt those picks or players.

[Neurotic Guy]

I'm actually looking forward to this season. It might sound strange, but I'll enjoy the games better without the expectations of playoffs and "Beating the Heat". That's very nerve wrecking. That's why I'm glad I wasn't a Spurs or Heat fan...that was too much to take.

As long as I live, I will never, ever agree with or understand this kind of sentiment.

Nothing whatsoever good comes from losing. Nothing.

Like any blanket statement, this one doesn't hold water.  Something good SOMETIMES comes from losing -- in the NBA and in life.  Tim Duncan, Hakeem, Larry (C's were 32-50 leading to the 6th pick), MJ, Wade and a host of other superstars came to teams whose losing records helped them aquire said superstar, leading to championships.   

Two of the most important learning moments in my career have come after 'losing' jobs when it was down to me and another candidate.  Losing certainly isn't always a good thing, but to say nothing whatsoever good comes from losing is often just not true.

[chambers]

I'm actually looking forward to this season. It might sound strange, but I'll enjoy the games better without the expectations of playoffs and "Beating the Heat". That's very nerve wrecking. That's why I'm glad I wasn't a Spurs or Heat fan...that was too much to take.

As long as I live, I will never, ever agree with or understand this kind of sentiment.

Nothing whatsoever good comes from losing. Nothing.

except guys like Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen...
You can't have it both ways.
You need to either acquire assets via tanking in the form of lottery picks or try to 'ping' mid first round picks in tradeable assets- which Danny has done a very good job of doing for the most part in his career.

There just aren't any free agents that are good enough this offseason to make a difference unless we wanna be a 5th or 6th seed like the atlanta hawks for the next 5 years.

Do people understand that we got Ray, KG and the 'Big 3' together by tanking and sucking for the assets to trade for those two players?
I don't know what other information you need?

[chambers]

Coachbo you realize that other than Jeff Green at number 5, the highest pick he's had is Al Jefferson at 15?

You're acting like the's had plenty of 'easy' picks that he's whiffed on. Jesus give the guy some credit.

And we sucked for a LONG time before Danny arrived. He turned us around relatively quickly by starting this process quickly. He acquired assets. Made the most of his draft picks. (Jefferson, Rondo, Jeff Green, Delonte). I mean Jeff Green is borderline all star but Rondo and Big Al are two All Stars that Danny drafted at the 15th and 21st pick for god's sake. Not of all his pick were perfect but he still managed to hide Gerald Green enough on the court to give other teams the sniff that he had some kind of 'upside' other than dunking.

You can be stubborn if you want, but at least give credit where it's due.
Danny got us the assets using a certain strategy whilst leaving enough cap space to sign 2 max level players next to Pierce. If the KG and Ray efforts had failed we'd still have had caproom and Al Jefferson, Pierce, Rondo and Green in the space of 3 seasons.

[rondohondo]

As far as the draft goes, as with any GM, he has had some great picks, some dogs, and the jury is out on the more recent picks who need more playing time to accurately determine their worth. For every good pick, I will give you JR Giddens, Troy Bell, Randy Foye, Gerald Green and Jujuan Johnson. Of course, all GMs have hits and misses and I have no idea where Ainge ranks in terms of his draft record.

Hmm .... Giddens (pick #30), Gerald Green (#18) & Johnson (#27)?   Getting _anything_ out of picks that late in the draft is like a small miracle.

He also converted Gerald Green as part of the package for KG and Johnson became Courtney Lee --- so he definitely got excellent value out of those picks. 

Giddens was worthless - but so are the vast majority of picks at #30.

Bell wasn't Danny's pick - he was picked for Memphis.  Bell and Jones were traded on draft night for Marcus Banks and Kendrick Perkins.   Banks was a flop, but not as big a flop as Bell, and Perkins was Perk --- so Danny pretty clearly won that one.

Foye, similarly was a draft night trade to the Trail Blazers so he wasn't Danny's choice - just part of the deal that brought Ratlif & Telfair - who were parts of the KG trade.

Rondo (21), Bradley (19) & Sully (21) were all fantastic value picks deep in the 1st round, as were Big Al (15), Perkins (27), Delonte (24) & Tony Allen (25).  Heck, Gomes at #50, Davis (35) & Erden (60!!) were like turning lead into gold!  Deep second round picks have bigger odds of never playing in the NBA at all than providing the huge court minutes that those three did.

He flipped the #5 (JeffGreen) in 2007 for HoF shooter Ray Allen, for god's sake!

And then he flipped Perkins (#27) to get Jeff Green back!   Plus another #1 (Fab)!!!

Every GM has hits and misses in the draft.  The NBA is extremely elite.   When you actually understand how freaking rare it is for any pick out of the top 10 to amount to anything, you start to realize how well Danny has drafted.

I totally discount the 'failures' of any of the picks past the middle of the first round.  Anything good you get past that is pure luxury.    The odds of a #15 being even 'starter' quality are only about 1 in 3.   When you get down to #20 and below?  Extremely rare.

Gerald Green is really the only relatively 'high' pick that was actually Danny's pick that ended up a bust - but even he proved useful as a trade piece.

Has he been perfect?  No.  But any objective measure would show Danny's picks to have far out performed the average at those slots.

And evaluating a GM's draft record isn't just about the names attached to those draft slots in the basketball-reference.com listing.  It's also includes the ultimate value realized if he dealt those picks or players.

Awesome post

Danny is a top 3 GM in this league

TP

[rondoallaturca]

Hmm .... Giddens (pick #30), Gerald Green (#18) & Johnson (#27)?   Getting _anything_ out of picks that late in the draft is like a small miracle.

He also converted Gerald Green as part of the package for KG and Johnson became Courtney Lee --- so he definitely got excellent value out of those picks. 

Giddens was worthless - but so are the vast majority of picks at #30.

Bell wasn't Danny's pick - he was picked for Memphis.  Bell and Jones were traded on draft night for Marcus Banks and Kendrick Perkins.   Banks was a flop, but not as big a flop as Bell, and Perkins was Perk --- so Danny pretty clearly won that one.

Foye, similarly was a draft night trade to the Trail Blazers so he wasn't Danny's choice - just part of the deal that brought Ratlif & Telfair - who were parts of the KG trade.

Rondo (21), Bradley (19) & Sully (21) were all fantastic value picks deep in the 1st round, as were Big Al (15), Perkins (27), Delonte (24) & Tony Allen (25).  Heck, Gomes at #50, Davis (35) & Erden (60!!) were like turning lead into gold!  Deep second round picks have bigger odds of never playing in the NBA at all than providing the huge court minutes that those three did.

He flipped the #5 (JeffGreen) in 2007 for HoF shooter Ray Allen, for god's sake!

And then he flipped Perkins (#27) to get Jeff Green back!   Plus another #1 (Fab)!!!

Every GM has hits and misses in the draft.  The NBA is extremely elite.   When you actually understand how freaking rare it is for any pick out of the top 10 to amount to anything, you start to realize how well Danny has drafted.

I totally discount the 'failures' of any of the picks past the middle of the first round.  Anything good you get past that is pure luxury.    The odds of a #15 being even 'starter' quality are only about 1 in 3.   When you get down to #20 and below?  Extremely rare.

Gerald Green is really the only relatively 'high' pick that was actually Danny's pick that ended up a bust - but even he proved useful as a trade piece.

Has he been perfect?  No.  But any objective measure would show Danny's picks to have far out performed the average at those slots.

And evaluating a GM's draft record isn't just about the names attached to those draft slots in the basketball-reference.com listing.  It's also includes the ultimate value realized if he dealt those picks or players.

Thank you for the sensibility. TP for sure.

[chambers]

As far as the draft goes, as with any GM, he has had some great picks, some dogs, and the jury is out on the more recent picks who need more playing time to accurately determine their worth. For every good pick, I will give you JR Giddens, Troy Bell, Randy Foye, Gerald Green and Jujuan Johnson. Of course, all GMs have hits and misses and I have no idea where Ainge ranks in terms of his draft record.

Hmm .... Giddens (pick #30), Gerald Green (#18) & Johnson (#27)?   Getting _anything_ out of picks that late in the draft is like a small miracle.

He also converted Gerald Green as part of the package for KG and Johnson became Courtney Lee --- so he definitely got excellent value out of those picks. 

Giddens was worthless - but so are the vast majority of picks at #30.

Bell wasn't Danny's pick - he was picked for Memphis.  Bell and Jones were traded on draft night for Marcus Banks and Kendrick Perkins.   Banks was a flop, but not as big a flop as Bell, and Perkins was Perk --- so Danny pretty clearly won that one.

Foye, similarly was a draft night trade to the Trail Blazers so he wasn't Danny's choice - just part of the deal that brought Ratlif & Telfair - who were parts of the KG trade.

Rondo (21), Bradley (19) & Sully (21) were all fantastic value picks deep in the 1st round, as were Big Al (15), Perkins (27), Delonte (24) & Tony Allen (25).  Heck, Gomes at #50, Davis (35) & Erden (60!!) were like turning lead into gold!  Deep second round picks have bigger odds of never playing in the NBA at all than providing the huge court minutes that those three did.

He flipped the #5 (JeffGreen) in 2007 for HoF shooter Ray Allen, for god's sake!

And then he flipped Perkins (#27) to get Jeff Green back!   Plus another #1 (Fab)!!!

Every GM has hits and misses in the draft.  The NBA is extremely elite.   When you actually understand how freaking rare it is for any pick out of the top 10 to amount to anything, you start to realize how well Danny has drafted.

I totally discount the 'failures' of any of the picks past the middle of the first round.  Anything good you get past that is pure luxury.    The odds of a #15 being even 'starter' quality are only about 1 in 3.   When you get down to #20 and below?  Extremely rare.

Gerald Green is really the only relatively 'high' pick that was actually Danny's pick that ended up a bust - but even he proved useful as a trade piece.

Has he been perfect?  No.  But any objective measure would show Danny's picks to have far out performed the average at those slots.

And evaluating a GM's draft record isn't just about the names attached to those draft slots in the basketball-reference.com listing.  It's also includes the ultimate value realized if he dealt those picks or players.

Amen brother.
Compare Danny's draft history to any other GM's in the league. Only the Spurs come close with late to mid first rounders- and they still tanked to get Tim Duncan!

TP

[kozlodoev]

I don't understand this thread. It offers not to "jump to conclusions", then proceeds with a wall of text doing exactly this.

[LooseCannon]

Compare Danny's draft history to any other GM's in the league. Only the Spurs come close with late to mid first rounders- and they still tanked to get Tim Duncan!

Did they really tank or did they just get utterly destroyed by injuries?  Do the Spurs finish with the third-worst record if David Robinson doesn't break his foot six games into the season?  Did the Spurs intend for him to break his foot?

[hwangjini_1]

I'm actually looking forward to this season. It might sound strange, but I'll enjoy the games better without the expectations of playoffs and "Beating the Heat". That's very nerve wrecking. That's why I'm glad I wasn't a Spurs or Heat fan...that was too much to take.

As long as I live, I will never, ever agree with or understand this kind of sentiment.

Nothing whatsoever good comes from losing. Nothing.

I could not agree with this statement more. I also could not disagree more with people who think Danny Ainge is some sort of genius. Did he make great deals to get KG and Benedict and to draft Rondo -- Yes. Beyond that the jury is out big time. And don't give me Avery Bradley who is so overrated on this blog it is laughable.

My guess is when Danny is done getting rid of the blood and guts and heart and soul of the Celtics this will be a 35-max win team next year. Hope we get to see guys like Jordan Crawford and Terrence Williams get a lot of playing time -- 

As far as the draft goes, as with any GM, he has had some great picks, some dogs, and the jury is out on the more recent picks who need more playing time to accurately determine their worth. For every good pick, I will give you JR Giddens, Troy Bell, Randy Foye, Gerald Green and Jujuan Johnson. Of course, all GMs have hits and misses and I have no idea where Ainge ranks in terms of his draft record.

Beyond that ?  How about Kendrick Perkins, Al Jefferson, Tony Allen, Delonte West ? How about acquiring James Posey when nobody else wanted him ?  or Eddie House ?

You had 22 years worth of obscurity and you want to dog him about late picks such as Giddens, etc. ?  After he brought you back from the dumps to actually compete for something since 08' ?

Come on man.

Hmmm. Didn't know Posey and House were drafted by Danny.

They weren't. I said "acquired".  Never said he drafted them.

There isn't a star - or a suitable reacquire right now in our coming bombed-out state - on that list.

Ainge is no drafting genius. Not by a LONG shot.

Now, this is definitely Camelot for those people who are absolutely fascinated by conflating ineptitude and mediocrity.

I was around the Net in the days when post after post was devoted to Gerald Green's certain stardom - primarily because he was a cool dunker.

Not to mention the pending greatness of Brandon Hunter, Orien Greene, et al?

How did that all work out?

It's a sad time. This team is going to be irrelevant, uninteresting and terrible for quite awhile. Great franchises retool on the fly.

Sad to face the reality of what we are.

actually it worked out very well, thank you very much. a championship with 6 years of an exciting and very good team. it was a fun ride.

your argument above actually supports the very points you are trying to undermine it seems to me. yes, the celtics did stink. but they stunk prior to danny's arrival and he turned the team around.

yes, the celtics will stink again, but since the vast majority of GMs have never, ever won a championship or built a championship caliber team - ever - i am willing to give credit to ainge for bringing one to boston. i am willing to see if he can perform this rare magic trick once more.

i dont know if he can do it again, but as i look at how he built the lastest championship team, i can envision him trying to do the same again.

get draft picks. draft credible, maybe great young players who are marketable. and acquire decent players with a range of contracts. all of these are NOT ends in themselves, but chips to help bargain and trade for stars.

that ainge is able to turn doc rivers - a coach who did not want to be here - into a first round draft pick from the clippers, is pretty darned good as a starting point.

let' see what he can get for KG and pierce now and whom he drafts in the next few years.

THEN we can begin to judge ainge's rebuilding plan. for the next year or two, i will have to be satisfied with watching some young players develop into trade chips. 

[LGC88]

I posted this idea in another thread, and the more info that comes out and the more I think about it, the more sense it makes.

1. Danny isn't tanking. He really can't at this point, in my opinion. Between ticket sales and the talent on this team, it's impossible. He's rebuilding the Celtic team from top to bottom. Instead of a team that focuses on two veterans to carry the team and a fairly slow pace, I think Danny has decided he wants to make this team younger. There are two reasons for this:

a. It's where the NBA is going. And I think it's ever so evident after the Spurs lost the championship. So close but so far, and the young(er) guys ended up winning.  Miami forced a game 7, that frankly shouldn't have happened, but the Spurs just ran out of gas. It's not 100% the reason (I also think in games 6 and 7 Pop just got outcoached), but it has to be unsettling, esp when your team is kind of set up the same way. The NBA is young, athletic and exciting now.

b. This is Rondo's team now. And, I believe, Rondo is admittedly a guy who likes a little bit of flash. He likes the fancy passes and the fake behind the back passes and the ooh's and the aah's. Rondo thinks he's the best PG in the league. When Rondo went out, I was tagged as anti-Rondo, but as the remainder of the season went out I realized that the 'ball pounding' and the idea that Rondo is ball-dominant seems to have come from the coaching. I think with younger guys that are athletic he'll have so much fun actually pushing the pace! And while many believe Rondo's assists will take a hit, I believe they'll actually be the same or better. Lots of lobs and wide open jumpers all day because of the way Rondo will push the ball and take advantage of defenses.

2. Danny isn't stupid and that's why the coach essentially doesn't matter for right now. Danny is going to make this Rondo's team. We already say Jackie Mac say they're gonna plaster his face everywhere. I also believe (this is speculation) that Rondo knows exactly whats going on and what's happened with Doc. Danny is essentially taking a chance on the youth movement and on Rondo. The idea is to get a cheap coach on a short contract to see if Rondo/Jeff/Sully and whomever can actually open some eyes and be competitive. If they essentially pass the test, DA will show some trust by going out and getting a better coach. And ideally, the team will have so much potential that a decent coach will be salivating to get here. If DA puts a guy like VDN on a contract longer than 2 years I will be thoroughly surprised.

3. We're still getting assets. I think the problem with most of us is we see one step. So we got that unprotected pick from LAC so we immediately go to see who may be available in the 2015 draft. I think not. Picks are like the cherry on top  of a good trade. It makes a contract that you don't necessarily like look better. We may not be able to trade Jet right out, but if we trade Jet and a first round unprotected pick, someone may be more willing to jump. However, I still do think DA is a draft god (Delonte, Rondo, Jeff, AB, Sully, etc.) and I think he'll get a wonderful pick if he does decide to use them. But I don't think he's using all of em (I'm assuming the Cavs for PP trade is true).

---------

This is all what I think and what makes sense to me. I don't think you keep a guy like Rondo, who's obviously going to want to play, in order to tank. I don't think you keep a guy like Jeff Green either. We get rid of PP, we have $15 mil off the books this year. We find something to do with KG that's $11 mil off the books. Get a long contract off the books and you'll have some more space.

DA is about to attempt to make Boston attractive. I see lots of ppl saying this is the end and that we're tanking, but I implore you to wait til AT LEAST the end of July. All we've done is gotten rid of our coach (who has a very similar first 5 years as VDN -- Doc didn't turn into a winner/"Great coach" until he got the big 3) -- so I'm just going to wait and see what happens.

I think others should too. And if I'm right, I'm extremely excited about all this.

TP for the effort and the common sense.
I hope that Danny has a plan for Josh Smith (probably with the TE from Pierce). Josh Smith loves Boston, Rondo already tried to convince him to come. They are good friends and that is one important factor that can make both Smith and Rondo better players. They will work hard together and could take this team on their shoulders. At the right time when sully green bradley are ready, Danny will add a star and a good coach to contend for few years again. I can see that happening in 2 years if everything goes as planned.
And btw, what an entertaining that team would be!

[chambers]

Compare Danny's draft history to any other GM's in the league. Only the Spurs come close with late to mid first rounders- and they still tanked to get Tim Duncan!

Did they really tank or did they just get utterly destroyed by injuries?  Do the Spurs finish with the third-worst record if David Robinson doesn't break his foot six games into the season?  Did the Spurs intend for him to break his foot?

No, but they made the most of a bad situation.
I don't think they finish in the bottom 3 teams if they tried to win games, even without Robinson.
Do you think they played their best given the circumstances? or did they make the most of an opportunity to rebuild on the fly via the draft?

[freshinthehouse]

It was assumed in NBA circles that both Robinson and Elliot could've played the last 2-3 weeks of the season, but they did not see the point.

[JohnBagleyValueMeal]

It's kind of baffling to hear people talk about Ainge like he's some kind of wizard. Sure, a decent GM. But let's not pretend that letting Tony Allen walk, or whiffing on the MLE every year, or signing Jermaine O'Neal, aren't on his resume as well. He's not the worst. But the faith people exhibit here that rebuilding is just a matter of course is naive, imo. You can make the right move and still have it blow up on you. You can draft the wrong guy. You can be in the same conference as a dominant player. I don't think people are appreciating how easy it is to be a non-factor in the NBA for a really long time.

I'm not a fan of the way we're about to do Pierce either. I'm glad Red let Larry retire a Celtic, getting Detlef Schrempf and maybe losing in the 2nd round to Jordan wouldn't have been worth disrespecting a team legend. And yet everyone's on board with shipping Pierce when he wants to stay here? Then we rip people for not being loyal. pfft.

[rondohondo]

It's kind of baffling to hear people talk about Ainge like he's some kind of wizard. Sure, a decent GM. But let's not pretend that letting Tony Allen walk, or whiffing on the MLE every year, or signing Jermaine O'Neal, aren't on his resume as well. He's not the worst. But the faith people exhibit here that rebuilding is just a matter of course is naive, imo. You can make the right move and still have it blow up on you. You can draft the wrong guy. You can be in the same conference as a dominant player. I don't think people are appreciating how easy it is to be a non-factor in the NBA for a really long time.

I'm not a fan of the way we're about to do Pierce either. I'm glad Red let Larry retire a Celtic, getting Detlef Schrempf and maybe losing in the 2nd round to Jordan wouldn't have been worth disrespecting a team legend. And yet everyone's on board with shipping Pierce when he wants to stay here? Then we rip people for not being loyal. pfft.

pierce has already said he would sign a 1 day deal to retire a celtic if he goes to a different team.

 Doesn't seem like he would be too upset about it.