i'm lazy, so i will steal a portion of this post from from SOSH. specifically, it is a very informative post by wutang112878. if you want to see more go to...
http://sonsofsamhorn.net/topic/78033-the-doc-saga/page-17they are debating a similar topic to us here, and wutang looks at ainge's drafts so far. keep in mind wutang's orginal post showed some different info than i am stealing and posting here. but i have also added some information.
also refer to this link on draftexpress about historic success of drafted players from 1980-2001.
http://www.draftexpress.com/article/Predicting-NBA-Draft-Success-and-Failure-through-Historical-Trends-1362/draft express shows that in the bottom 1/2 of the draft (basically picks 16-30 now) 49% of those players chosen were either marginal players or out of the nba.
conversely, only about 21% of those players drafted in the bottom 1/2 of the draft were stars or solid starters.
ainge has had 10 picks in that range as GM of the celtics. ainge matches the league average if 2 of his picks became solid starters or stars.
but in reality, easily 6 of these 10 picks are starts or solid starters. SIX!!!!! this is far and away above the nba average for successful drafting in the last part of the draft.
ainge has drafted in the top half of the draft only twice (#13 & #15), here he is at 50% success, but to be fair they were picks #13 and #15, and only 33% of the second 1/4 of draftees (#8-15) are stars or solid starters. meaning? ainge beats the nba average once again.
now what about the second round picks by ainge? harder to say because i could not find similar stats for the second round. but all in all, of ainge's 10 2nd round picks, 3 are useful players and 7 are duds.
this means that in the second round of the nba draft, ainge has a higher success rate than most GMs do drafting in the second 1/2 of the first round!!!!!
so what does all this mean? for me, it means "in danny i trust" come draft day.
in case you are interested....
AINGE'S DRAFT HISTORY
1st round
Absolute Assets
Al Jefferson - #15 Overall
Kendrick Perkins - #27 Overall
Rajon Rondo - # 21 Overall
Avery Bradley - #19 Overall
Jared Sullinger - #21 Overall
Tony Allen - #25 Overall
Delonte West - #24 Overall
Duds:
Marcus Banks - #13 Overall
Gerald Green - #18 Overall
Fab Melo - #22 Overall
JaJuan Johnson - #27 Overall
J.R. Giddens - #30 Overall
2nd Round
Useful
Ryan Gomes - #50 Overall
Semih Erden - #60 Overall
Big Baby Davis - #35 Overall
Not that Useful
Gabe Pruitt - #32 Overall
Justin Reed - #40 Overall
Kris Joseph - #51 Overall
Luke Harangody - #52 Overall
Orien Greene - #53 Overall
E'Twaun Moore - #55 Overall
Lester Hudson - #58 Overall