Author Topic: What Danny is really doing and why we should stop jumping to conclusions  (Read 11097 times)

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Offline chambers

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It's kind of baffling to hear people talk about Ainge like he's some kind of wizard. Sure, a decent GM. But let's not pretend that letting Tony Allen walk, or whiffing on the MLE every year, or signing Jermaine O'Neal, aren't on his resume as well. He's not the worst. But the faith people exhibit here that rebuilding is just a matter of course is naive, imo. You can make the right move and still have it blow up on you. You can draft the wrong guy. You can be in the same conference as a dominant player. I don't think people are appreciating how easy it is to be a non-factor in the NBA for a really long time.

I'm not a fan of the way we're about to do Pierce either. I'm glad Red let Larry retire a Celtic, getting Detlef Schrempf and maybe losing in the 2nd round to Jordan wouldn't have been worth disrespecting a team legend. And yet everyone's on board with shipping Pierce when he wants to stay here? Then we rip people for not being loyal. pfft.

Compare his bad moves to his positive ones and there's no contest though. Compare his drafting to other GM's and organisations around the league and there's no comparison.

It's your opinion that it's disrespectful to move Pierce but it's not disrespectful to me. It's disrespectful to let him rot away in the last 2 years of his career on a tanking rebuilding team.
The team comes first.
"We are lucky we have a very patient GM that isn't willing to settle for being good and coming close. He wants to win a championship and we have the potential to get there still with our roster and assets."

quoting 'Greg B' on RealGM after 2017 trade deadline.
Read that last line again. One more time.

Offline LatterDayCelticsfan

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Offline hwangjini_1

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i'm lazy, so i will steal a portion of this post from from SOSH. specifically, it is a very informative post by wutang112878. if you want to see more go to...

http://sonsofsamhorn.net/topic/78033-the-doc-saga/page-17

they are debating a similar topic to us here, and wutang looks at ainge's drafts so far. keep in mind wutang's orginal post showed some different info than i am stealing and posting here. but i have also added some information.

also refer to this link on draftexpress about historic success of drafted players from 1980-2001.

http://www.draftexpress.com/article/Predicting-NBA-Draft-Success-and-Failure-through-Historical-Trends-1362/

draft express shows that in the bottom 1/2 of the draft (basically picks 16-30 now) 49% of those players chosen were either marginal players or out of the nba.

conversely, only about 21% of those players drafted in the bottom 1/2 of the draft were stars or solid starters.

ainge has had 10 picks in that range as GM of the celtics. ainge matches the league average if 2 of his picks became solid starters or stars.

but in reality, easily 6 of these 10 picks are starts or solid starters. SIX!!!!! this is far and away above the nba average for successful drafting in the last part of the draft.

ainge has drafted in the top half of the draft only twice (#13 & #15), here he is at 50% success, but to be fair they were picks #13 and #15, and only 33% of the second 1/4 of draftees (#8-15) are stars or solid starters.  meaning? ainge beats the nba average once again.

now what about the second round picks by ainge? harder to say because i could not find similar stats for the second round. but all in all, of ainge's 10 2nd round picks, 3 are useful players and 7 are duds.

this means that in the second round of the nba draft, ainge has a higher success rate than most GMs do drafting in the second 1/2 of the first round!!!!!

so what does all this mean? for me, it means "in danny i trust" come draft day.

in case you are interested....

AINGE'S DRAFT HISTORY

1st round
 
Absolute Assets
Al Jefferson  -  #15 Overall
Kendrick Perkins -  #27 Overall
Rajon Rondo - # 21 Overall
Avery Bradley  -  #19 Overall
Jared Sullinger  -  #21 Overall
Tony Allen  -  #25 Overall
Delonte West  -  #24 Overall
 
Duds:
Marcus Banks -  #13 Overall
Gerald Green  -  #18 Overall
Fab Melo  -  #22 Overall
JaJuan Johnson -  #27 Overall
J.R. Giddens  -  #30 Overall
 
2nd Round
 
Useful
Ryan Gomes  -  #50 Overall
Semih Erden  -  #60 Overall
Big Baby Davis - #35 Overall

Not that Useful
Gabe Pruitt  -  #32 Overall
Justin Reed  -  #40 Overall
Kris Joseph  -  #51 Overall
Luke Harangody  -  #52 Overall
Orien Greene  -  #53 Overall
E'Twaun Moore  -  #55 Overall
Lester Hudson  -  #58 Overall
 
« Last Edit: June 24, 2013, 11:38:29 PM by hwangjini_1 »
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Offline Celtics18

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TP, kgainez,

I agree with a lot of the conclusions that you have jumped to. 
DKC Seventy-Sixers:

PG: G. Hill/D. Schroder
SG: C. Lee/B. Hield/T. Luwawu
SF:  Giannis/J. Lamb/M. Kuzminskas
PF:  E. Ilyasova/J. Jerebko/R. Christmas
C:    N. Vucevic/K. Olynyk/E. Davis/C. Jefferson

Offline rondohondo

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i'm lazy, so i will steal a portion of this post from from SOSH. specifically, it is a very informative post by wutang112878. if you want to see more go to...

http://sonsofsamhorn.net/topic/78033-the-doc-saga/page-17

they are debating a similar topic to us here, and wutang looks at ainge's drafts so far. keep in mind wutang's orginal post showed some different info than i am stealing and posting here. but i have also added some information.

also refer to this link on draftexpress about historic success of drafted players from 1980-2001.

http://www.draftexpress.com/article/Predicting-NBA-Draft-Success-and-Failure-through-Historical-Trends-1362/

draft express shows that in the bottom 1/2 of the draft (basically picks 16-30 now) 49% of those players chosen were either marginal players or out of the nba.

conversely, only about 21% of those players drafted in the bottom 1/2 of the draft were stars or solid starters.

ainge has had 10 picks in that range as GM of the celtics. ainge matches the league average if 2 of his picks became solid starters or stars.

but in reality, easily 6 of these 10 picks are starts or solid starters. SIX!!!!! this is far and away above the nba average for successful drafting in the last part of the draft.

ainge has drafted in the top half of the draft only twice (#13 & #15), here he is at 50% success, but to be fair they were picks #13 and #15, and only 33% of the second 1/4 of draftees (#8-15) are stars or solid starters.  meaning? ainge beats the nba average once again.

now what about the second round picks by ainge? harder to say because i could not find similar stats for the second round. but all in all, of ainge's 10 2nd round picks, 3 are useful players and 7 are duds.

this means that in the second round of the nba draft, ainge has a higher success rate than most GMs do drafting in the second 1/2 of the first round!!!!!

so what does all this mean? for me, it means "in danny i trust" come draft day.

in case you are interested....

AINGE'S DRAFT HISTORY

1st round
 
Absolute Assets
Al Jefferson  -  #15 Overall
Kendrick Perkins -  #27 Overall
Rajon Rondo - # 21 Overall
Avery Bradley  -  #19 Overall
Jared Sullinger  -  #21 Overall
Tony Allen  -  #25 Overall
Delonte West  -  #24 Overall
 
Duds:
Marcus Banks -  #13 Overall
Gerald Green  -  #18 Overall
Fab Melo  -  #22 Overall
JaJuan Johnson -  #27 Overall
J.R. Giddens  -  #30 Overall
 
2nd Round
 
Useful
Ryan Gomes  -  #50 Overall
Semih Erden  -  #60 Overall
Big Baby Davis - #35 Overall

Not that Useful
Gabe Pruitt  -  #32 Overall
Justin Reed  -  #40 Overall
Kris Joseph  -  #51 Overall
Luke Harangody  -  #52 Overall
Orien Greene  -  #53 Overall
E'Twaun Moore  -  #55 Overall
Lester Hudson  -  #58 Overall

drafted Leon Powe in 2nd rd too

Offline hwangjini_1

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rondohondo, thanks! my mistake to over look him, especially since i liked him so much.

not sure whether powe would be placed in the useful category given his short career due to injuries. but i could see a case being made given his abilities and contributions during that career.

on this one, i will let others make the call. but the bottom line for ainge doesnt change in my mind.
I believe Gandhi is the only person who knew about real democracy — not democracy as the right to go and buy what you want, but democracy as the responsibility to be accountable to everyone around you. Democracy begins with freedom from hunger, freedom from unemployment, freedom from fear, and freedom from hatred.
- Vandana Shiva

Offline rondohondo

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rondohondo, thanks! my mistake to over look him, especially since i liked him so much.

not sure whether powe would be placed in the useful category given his short career due to injuries. but i could see a case being made given his abilities and contributions during that career.

on this one, i will let others make the call. but the bottom line for ainge doesnt change in my mind.

very useful beating down Lakers scum in the NBA Finals

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nmwyJp_PcOQ

 ;)

Offline guava_wrench

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We will have a team centered around a guy rehabbing. We will lose a lot of games this upcoming season and hope that ping pong balls fall our way.

Assuming we move KG and Pierce, that is.

Offline kgainez

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TP, kgainez,

I agree with a lot of the conclusions that you have jumped to.

smh
i guess i was responding to people automatically assuming we were getting prepared to tank, etc. but thanks.

Offline guava_wrench

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Doc Rivers made Boston attractive and the Celtics still have not gotten a top flight free agent.

A great climate makes a city attractive to top tier free agents -- forget about that one.

Low taxes make a city attractive to top tier free agents -- forget about that one.

A great nightlife with places open into the wee hours of the morning make a city attractive to top tier free agents -- forget about that one.

So then your Doc Rivers point is moot. We got Courtney Lee recently thanks to Doc. Woopty doo. I understand everything else you're saying but ultimately, guys want to play a good brand of basketball around great guys. Again, I don't think DA has even BEGUN to play out his hand. I say keep waiting and see what we end up with.

No, that is my point. Even a guy who most players would want to play for could not attract free agents here. And, that really was the only thing Boston had going for it to attract those free agents. Now it has nothing, IMHO.
Rasheed Wallace and Shaq had plenty of suitors when we picked them up. We were able to attract free agents.

Offline tarheelsxxiii

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I'm actually looking forward to this season. It might sound strange, but I'll enjoy the games better without the expectations of playoffs and "Beating the Heat". That's very nerve wrecking. That's why I'm glad I wasn't a Spurs or Heat fan...that was too much to take.

As long as I live, I will never, ever agree with or understand this kind of sentiment.

Nothing whatsoever good comes from losing. Nothing.

I could not agree with this statement more. I also could not disagree more with people who think Danny Ainge is some sort of genius. Did he make great deals to get KG and Benedict and to draft Rondo -- Yes. Beyond that the jury is out big time. And don't give me Avery Bradley who is so overrated on this blog it is laughable.

My guess is when Danny is done getting rid of the blood and guts and heart and soul of the Celtics this will be a 35-max win team next year. Hope we get to see guys like Jordan Crawford and Terrence Williams get a lot of playing time --  ::)

As far as the draft goes, as with any GM, he has had some great picks, some dogs, and the jury is out on the more recent picks who need more playing time to accurately determine their worth. For every good pick, I will give you JR Giddens, Troy Bell, Randy Foye, Gerald Green and Jujuan Johnson. Of course, all GMs have hits and misses and I have no idea where Ainge ranks in terms of his draft record.

Beyond that ?  How about Kendrick Perkins, Al Jefferson, Tony Allen, Delonte West ? How about acquiring James Posey when nobody else wanted him ?  or Eddie House ?

You had 22 years worth of obscurity and you want to dog him about late picks such as Giddens, etc. ?  After he brought you back from the dumps to actually compete for something since 08' ?

Come on man.

Hmmm. Didn't know Posey and House were drafted by Danny.

They weren't. I said "acquired".  Never said he drafted them.

There isn't a star - or a suitable reacquire right now in our coming bombed-out state - on that list.

Ainge is no drafting genius. Not by a LONG shot.

Now, this is definitely Camelot for those people who are absolutely fascinated by conflating ineptitude and mediocrity.

I was around the Net in the days when post after post was devoted to Gerald Green's certain stardom - primarily because he was a cool dunker.

Not to mention the pending greatness of Brandon Hunter, Orien Greene, et al?

How did that all work out?

It's a sad time. This team is going to be irrelevant, uninteresting and terrible for quite awhile. Great franchises retool on the fly.

Sad to face the reality of what we are.

Agree with Big Bo to a large extent. Re: draft picks, no one has mentioned the importance of player development. The Big 3 undeniably played a substantial role in the development of Rondo, Perk, Bradley, etc. Had they been in different situations, their careers would've probably been drastically different. Rondo was surrounded by question marks... now imagine if he was stuck on the Wizards. Same Rondo? Probably not. Most salient examples are Danny Green and even Kawhi Leonard - both benefited from a fantastic organization, well-coached team, veteran presence (perhaps guidance), and likely strong player development. They had well-defined roles that matched their skill sets, and they both played well within their means.

Realistically, it's extremely hard to win a 'chip. Every year there are a handful of teams that can contend and a million variables at play. I think the goal is generally to be in the ball park. I don't think that's happening here for a while. That said, I enjoy watching Rondo more than any other player in the league, and I really like Green's personality and potential. I have no clue how they will perform next year but I'm really excited (in contrast to Big Bo :P) to see how it plays out.
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Offline kgainez

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Offline MBunge

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I'm actually looking forward to this season. It might sound strange, but I'll enjoy the games better without the expectations of playoffs and "Beating the Heat". That's very nerve wrecking. That's why I'm glad I wasn't a Spurs or Heat fan...that was too much to take.

As long as I live, I will never, ever agree with or understand this kind of sentiment.

Nothing whatsoever good comes from losing. Nothing.

One thing about next season is that if the team struggles, it will be because they simply suck.  Gone will be the soul-crushing frustration of watching a good Celtics' team lose games because they just aren't competing.  I love the KG/Pierce/Ray Celts for winning a title but I have never watched a taltented, veteran team that was so incredibly inconsistent on the floor.

Mike

Offline BballTim

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I'm actually looking forward to this season. It might sound strange, but I'll enjoy the games better without the expectations of playoffs and "Beating the Heat". That's very nerve wrecking. That's why I'm glad I wasn't a Spurs or Heat fan...that was too much to take.

As long as I live, I will never, ever agree with or understand this kind of sentiment.

Nothing whatsoever good comes from losing. Nothing.

I could not agree with this statement more. I also could not disagree more with people who think Danny Ainge is some sort of genius. Did he make great deals to get KG and Benedict and to draft Rondo -- Yes. Beyond that the jury is out big time. And don't give me Avery Bradley who is so overrated on this blog it is laughable.

My guess is when Danny is done getting rid of the blood and guts and heart and soul of the Celtics this will be a 35-max win team next year. Hope we get to see guys like Jordan Crawford and Terrence Williams get a lot of playing time --  ::)

As far as the draft goes, as with any GM, he has had some great picks, some dogs, and the jury is out on the more recent picks who need more playing time to accurately determine their worth. For every good pick, I will give you JR Giddens, Troy Bell, Randy Foye, Gerald Green and Jujuan Johnson. Of course, all GMs have hits and misses and I have no idea where Ainge ranks in terms of his draft record.

Beyond that ?  How about Kendrick Perkins, Al Jefferson, Tony Allen, Delonte West ? How about acquiring James Posey when nobody else wanted him ?  or Eddie House ?

You had 22 years worth of obscurity and you want to dog him about late picks such as Giddens, etc. ?  After he brought you back from the dumps to actually compete for something since 08' ?

Come on man.

Hmmm. Didn't know Posey and House were drafted by Danny.

They weren't. I said "acquired".  Never said he drafted them.

There isn't a star - or a suitable reacquire right now in our coming bombed-out state - on that list.

Ainge is no drafting genius. Not by a LONG shot.

Now, this is definitely Camelot for those people who are absolutely fascinated by conflating ineptitude and mediocrity.

  It's also a Camelot for people who dump on Danny's picks because they're unaware of the type of player that those picks generally produce. Claiming that players drafted 15th or later in the draft were bad picks because they aren't "stars" only shows that you don't understand they stack up to their competition. Figure out the average career a pick in the 20s has (or even  #15 or #18), look at the careers that Danny's picks have had and you'll see that most of them have had above average careers.

I was around the Net in the days when post after post was devoted to Gerald Green's certain stardom - primarily because he was a cool dunker.

Not to mention the pending greatness of Brandon Hunter, Orien Greene, et al?

How did that all work out?


  Probably about as well as all of your posts criticizing Danny for picking Avery Bradley over James Anderson.

Offline Celtics4ever

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I am thankful every that that Ainge is our GM and Coach Bo isn't.   What exactly do you coach , Coach Bo?