Was Rondo deal the right move for Mavs?

[slamtheking]

It's been disappointing thus far.

for better or worse, this is a fair statement. 

I was hoping a new environment would bring out the best in Rondo but that doesn't seem to be happening.  will wait until Dallas is knocked out of the playoffs to really assess the situation.

[mmmmm]

To say Rondo has hurt them on offense means that you believe the Mavs were going to keep playing at their record-breaking pace that they started the season with.  I, for one, never thougt that would happen, because regression to the mean is a real thing.  I similarly think the Mavs didn't think that, which is why they wanted to make a trade before things went downhill.

Rondo's primary role on that team is to be one of distributor, and in some respects, he's doing that well.  58% of the time a Mav takes a shot after he passes to them, they score (either by a made basket or free throw).  With Nelson, that number was 55%, and with the Celtics, that happens 54% of the time.  Not only are the Mavs scoring with more efficiency after Rondo passes to them, they are shooting with more volume.  The Mavs shoot 22% of the time after Rondo passes to them, compared with only 17% of the time after Nelson passed to them.  However, both of these numbers are far different than when Rondo was in Boston, when the Celtics took a shot 28% of the time after Rondo passed the ball.

These numbers are derived from the NBA's player tracking stats.  Unfortunately I haven't figured out how to get a csv of the league stats as a whole (it's copy and paste into excel currently), so I can't tell you how those numbers compare across the league.  What is clear to me is two things: 1) Rondo has undeniably been better at creating good shots for his teammates than Nelson was, and 2) his role in the Mavs offense is very different than it was in Boston.

His shooting has been not good.  But compared to Nelson it hasn't been a huge drop-off, or arguably a drop-off at all.  He's shooting 39% from 3 and 40% from 2 (which is dreadful), while Nelson shot 37% from 3 and 38% from 2 (even more dreadful).  Really the only difference is free throws, but neither Rondo or Nelson attempted even 1 free throw per game as members of the Mavs, so this isn't as big of a deal as the vast difference in percentages would indicate.

Also, they've played a comparable number of minutes (29.1 minutes per game in 22 games, compared to 25.4 minutes per game in 23 games), so it a pretty good time to compare them.

Anyway, I'm not saying unequivocally that Rondo hasn't hurt the Mavs offense.  But at the same point, when you look at what he's done for the Mavs compared to what Nelson brought, it's pretty clear he's been an upgrade on an individual level.  It's entirely possible that the Mavs struggles right now are more than being about Rondo.

Good analysis.

[Eja117]

If some other great player ...liiikkeee sayyyy...idk...Blake Griffin were traded to a playoff aspiring team like saaaayyyy...idk ...the Rockets and then Blake took a turn for the worst does that mean Blake now is no good?

I blame this solidly on the Dallas coaches. The guy was leading the league in assists and rebs on a team of kids. He goes to Dallas and they immediately get worse. Do people really think Rondo is suddenly a tremendously worse player in Dallas? What do they think caused this? The weather?

The team has no idea what to do because they haven't had a training camp together or any practice time, they sacrificed valuable bench guys, and then he got his face broke. Check back in April.

hahaha...this is funny, you are the leader of the Rondo army.  I respect it, I disagree with it but I respect your loyalty.  The facts are Rondo is not the player he was a few years ago, the excuses have run dry.  He is a long way removed from his injury, he is surrounded by good players now and he has still struggled...In today's game he is an average point guard.  That's it, no shame in that Rondo has had a nice career...

I totally get that people have been waiting to pounce on Rondo for a long time now because of his shooting or something, while simultaneously posting bring back Antoine threads, but he's 29, a great passer, great defender, great shooter. Part of the issue was he wanted to be paid. He was indecisive and sent out odd signals.
Doesn't mean he isn't or wasn't a good player.
A tailored system? Someone said that. So both Stevens and Doc tailored a system for Rondo? And Carlisle can't? Ok.

[fairweatherfan]

If some other great player ...liiikkeee sayyyy...idk...Blake Griffin were traded to a playoff aspiring team like saaaayyyy...idk ...the Rockets and then Blake took a turn for the worst does that mean Blake now is no good?

I blame this solidly on the Dallas coaches. The guy was leading the league in assists and rebs on a team of kids. He goes to Dallas and they immediately get worse. Do people really think Rondo is suddenly a tremendously worse player in Dallas? What do they think caused this? The weather?

The team has no idea what to do because they haven't had a training camp together or any practice time, they sacrificed valuable bench guys, and then he got his face broke. Check back in April.

Good point, if Rondo really was the factor, then you'd also expect our record to be better when he wasn't playing, and not just for a short period, but over like 4 seasons in a row. 

[LarBrd33]

In one word:  EXPOSED

He's the PG version of Antoine Walker.  He's getting exposed in a big way post-Celtic.

Rondo is one of the worst offensive players in the entire league.  Period.  Let it sink in.  Some of us have been saying that for a while now.  Nice to see everyone else join the party.

The most interesting thing to me (aside from seeing KG/Pierce carry us into the playoffs after Rondo went down during his best statistical season) was watching the team last year.  Brad clearly was trying to implement what is now called the "pace and space offense".   I was always concerned to see how rondo would play in such an offense.  He's a liability without the ball... so how could he possibly fit?  Rondo NEEDS the ball to be effective.  He needs bigs who can hit mid-range shots.  As long as the ball is always in his hands it's going to mean lots of assists for Rondo.   Interesting thing last year was that when Rondo came back, they didn't even bother trying to incorporate him into the Celtic offense.  They just let him control the ball and do his thing.  I chalked that up to the team letting him get back to being "Rondo" before they tried to change his role.

This year, same thing.  The offense was very different in games Rondo played vs games he sat.  The team absolutely was tailored to his strengths and weaknesses.  Now he's in Dallas on a team that thus far seems unwilling to let him control the ball 90% of the time.  Not surprisingly, he's been terrible.  He's had double-digit assists 1 time in the past 18 games.  ... Exposed.

I've asked this question before... if Rondo continues to average 6 assists, can he still be considered the "best pure passer" in the game?  Or is that only a title given to point guards who hold the ball 95% of the game out of necessity and get more assist opportunities than any player in the league?

Ainge should have traded him a couple years ago.   But I give him credit for dumping him when he did instead of waiting until the deadline.  Look at all the point guards that got moved at the deadline... Dragic, Thomas, Ennis, MCW, Knight, Miller, Reggie Jackson, etc.  The market was flooded with point guards... many of which are better than Rondo. 

[mmmmm]

Hey look!

It's yet-another-bash-rondo-vs-defend-rondo thread!!!

Zzzzzzz......

[SHAQATTACK]

I'm not going to say Rondo hurts them , I don't think there's been enough time or games to say that 100 % .

I will say from watching most of his Mavs games his improving them has been sporadic .  Basically when he meets the top guards ( and there's a lot of them) in the west .  He is overwhelmed  or out guned.

Rondo has lost his speed probably due to injuries .   He can't cope with the best young guards right now . He still plays well against second string level and destroys them.  Westbrook made Rondo look like he need to retire.

Rondo should be on a  crack shooting team . Surrounded by Ray Allen types

Rondos totally lame free throw game is just unacceptable in the NBA level......I feel less confidence in his shot than Howard or D Jordan .

Rondo just isn't moving the needle forward much , maybe against under .500 team he excels .......right now ...just watch how C P 3 is leading his team stepping up in every way ......

Rondo just doesn't have much to offer .....his passing still the best in the NBA , and slow weak D .......he is just not going to push the Mavs past OKC , Clippers , and Warriors or Grizzlies

There is a lot of rotation problems on Mavs ...some bad fit chemistry ......and Dirk can't sink 30 points or 40 like he once did every night to bail them out.

So Father Time and poor fit for his skills is his personal problems.....but the Mavs just don't have the young legs to beat the leagues top 10 teams in a series .

[LarBrd33]

his 28% free throw shooting might be the most amazing thing ive ever seen in the NBA.  How is that even possible ?

[SHAQATTACK]

his 28% free throw shooting might be the most amazing thing ive ever seen in the NBA.  How is that even possible ?

I think I could blind fold 15% 

What Rondo does good .....is not enough to push the needle forward against the top 10 teams in the West .

[P stoff]

Just check out the MAV site to get perspective on how they feel pre and post trade. Its not all Rondo's fault, as Dirk is terrible on D, and ellis needs the ball more than rondo. But he is (like I said he was on our team) not a difference maker. They will live and die on Dirk and Montas shooting.

One Mav blogger said, "just stop shooting...or take 5 shots a game, get 8 assists and 8 rebounds and that would be "great"

Just the notion of "dont shoot" and just do that"  for a guy who was seen as a top pG is just insane. He is becoming Kendall Marshall.

Yes the Mavs could change a few things to fit his skill, but nBA teams dont get to practice that much to "create" a whole new series of patterns and sets.  Their defense is a joke (as a team). I got a kick out of a previousgame with OKC as was claimed "Rondo shut down westbrook".   I watched that game and Westbrook missed a ton of floaters and shots. No one really shuts him down, but sometimes he has bad games. Last night he torched Rondo and every other guy that attempted to guard him. Not even close.

Rondo is better than nelson. That is true. Just trying to figure out if that truly sums it up.

[SHAQATTACK]

Just check out the MAV site to get perspective on how they feel pre and post trade. Its not all Rondo's fault, as Dirk is terrible on D, and ellis needs the ball more than rondo. But he is (like I said he was on our team) not a difference maker. They will live and die on Dirk and Montas shooting.

One Mav blogger said, "just stop shooting...or take 5 shots a game, get 8 assists and 8 rebounds and that would be "great"

Just the notion of "dont shoot" and just do that"  for a guy who was seen as a top pG is just insane. He is becoming Kendall Marshall.

Yes the Mavs could change a few things to fit his skill, but nBA teams dont get to practice that much to "create" a whole new series of patterns and sets.  Their defense is a joke (as a team). I got a kick out of a previousgame with OKC as was claimed "Rondo shut down westbrook".   I watched that game and Westbrook missed a ton of floaters and shots. No one really shuts him down, but sometimes he has bad games. Last night he torched Rondo and every other guy that attempted to guard him. Not even close.

Rondo is better than nelson. That is true. Just trying to figure out if that truly sums it up.

I don't blame Rondo at all......he is doing all he can .....at this point Chandler is getting age and wear, Dirk is a basic shooter.....he never does much else these days ....I watched him stand and watch OKC players attack the paint .....he rarely tried to stop them,  half hearted if he did , poor close out on shooters.   Dirk and Rondo are play n a lot of watch the other guys defend and hope for misses.

Even when Dirk was scoring the big games ,  I noticed they almost never won a game without him.

Mavs fans need to face the facts like Boston with KG .....the days of him being THE core is all but over .....they have always needed his guarantee 35 -40  to beat the good teams .  Not enough overall game , seals , assists , defense , he looks slow .

Rondo may get his game going better ...just don't think it's going help the old Dirk , Amaire , the old guys play like they did in  Their prime.

[gift]

One Mav blogger said, "just stop shooting...or take 5 shots a game, get 8 assists and 8 rebounds and that would be "great"

Funny that that's probably how Rondo wants to play. He's being asked to be a shooter now. In Boston he was always allowed to not be a shooter and people complained about the stagnant offense. He's just a guy that doesn't really fit with the way the league is going. I don't think he's changed while the league has.

[the_Bird]

his 28% free throw shooting might be the most amazing thing ive ever seen in the NBA.  How is that even possible ?

i mean, hell, Shaq was shot-putting his free throws, and he still usually made half of 'em.

And there's no way that Rondo's inability to shoot free throws isn't screwing up the rest of his game.  A guy with his quickness should NOT only be getting to the free throw line once a game.  Is he simply not driving to the rim anymore?

[P stoff]

this is all true... but you say you dont blame Rondo at all?

28% FT...and thats if he bothers to even drive the paint.  Rarely makes a jumper. 

I think he isnt the sole reason for their struggles... but he certainly shares some responsibility. even if its just that their teams flow and spacing is compromised by his weaknesses.

[Vermont Green]

... Rondo's teammates have shot with both more volume and efficiency with Rondo as PG relative to Nelson.

I don't think this is expressly true based on your stats.  It is only true in the specific instance where the shot is immediately preceded by a pass from Rondo as compared to a pass from Nelson (isn't that what your stats reflect?).  If it is true that the Mavs are actually better in those cases, it must also be the case that they are worse with Rondo relative to Nelson in all the cases where the final pass does not come from Rondo/Nelson (since overall, they are clearly doing worse).

That is the whole paradox of Rondo.  It only works when he is dribbling around and looking for assists.  As soon as he doesn't have the ball, his defender goes and clogs things up for everyone else.  Based on my observations, Rondo creates far more of these good shots in transition and up tempo play.  That is great when you have those opportunities but you can't expect that every possession.

I feel bad for Rondo.  He is having a nightmare season that he thought going to Dallas would cure but it has only made it worse.  I don't see how he digs out of this.