Marcus is an expiring contract next year. What should we do with him?
The options seem to be:
1. Keep him long-term. I assume that he will get a contract somewhere between $18 million and $25 million per year.
2. Let him hit free agency, with the intention of letting him walk and replacing him with Fournier.
3. Trade him in the off-season. If we’re not going to keep him, we get value and give his replacement time to work into the rotation.
4. Trade him at next year’s deadline. Plenty of contenders would love to have him, even if it is on a three month rental.
I would trade him ASAP.
I appreciate his energy and his toughness, but I also feel that shot selection and unforced turnovers / recklessness are the two biggest issues for the team right now, and of all the guys on the team who are most prone to those issues Smart is the most disposable.
There is also no way in hell I'd pay $18M a year for a guy as limited and one-dimensional as Smart is. He's a defensive specialist with decent play-making ability and that's really about all he brings. I don't think replacing what he brings (or at least most of it) is actually that hard.
Finally if you're going to move him at some point, then you want to do it now. The team is unlikely a serious title contender this year so it snot like his presence will be the difference between a banner or no banner...and moving him while he still has value is logical. If you want until he becomes an expiring contract / rental then the market becomes significantly smaller and you're far less likely to get a quality return.
You can't trade Smart until the off-season. The trade deadline date for making trades expired a month ago.
Sorry my bad - expressed myself poorly.
When I said "you want to do it now" I meant as soon as you possibly can (rather than holding on to him unnecessarily so his trade value drops).
Ah, I saw you said
unlikely a serious title contender this year so it snot like his presence will be the difference between a banner or no banner...and moving him while he still has value is logical. If you want until he becomes an expiring contract / rental then the market becomes significantly smaller and you're far less likely to get a quality return.
It sure sounded like you wanted him traded before the playoffs because him not being there wouldn't make a difference if they won a title or not. That only makes sense if you meant trade him before the playoffs, which you can't do
It also sounded like you meant trade him now because that way he's not expiring contract (when his value decreases), but he is only eligible to trade when he is an expiring contract, so that makes no sense, unless you meant trade him now, after the trade deadline.
It sure sounded like you expressed yourself well, but was just not familiar with the trading rules.
Let me clarify my (admittedly poorly stated) position haha
So you're three options are basically:
a) Trade him this offseason
b) Trade him prior to the trade deadline next season
c) Keep him until his contract expires next offseason, and then try to work something out then
If we go with option C (keep him until he expires) I see three likely potential outcomes here.
1) He re-signs with Boston for more money then I am comfortable with (undesirable, as it impacts cap flexibility long-term)
2) He leaves in free agency and the Celtics get nothing (undesirable because we'd be over the cap, and unable to pay a good replacement)
3) He chooses to go elsewhere, and Danny manages to pull off a S&T to get an asset back - this is to me the most desirable of the 3 scenarios in my eyes, because if a team knows they can get Smart as a free agent there is little incentive for them to offer anything of substantial value
If we go with option B (keep him until next season's deadline) In this scenario Boston finds themselves in the difficult position of trying to offload Smart as a 2-3 month rental. Yes, it's true that there are probably contenders out there who would be happy to take Smart under these conditions in the hope that he can be the extra piece they need for a title run.
However this limits the market to teams who consider themselves serious contenders and have a need for a poor shooting defensive specialist at the guard spot - which is probably 2 or 3 teams. That doesn't give much bargaining power. Also, contending teams likely won't want to give up any players who are current key contributors - it would probably be raw prospects, unproductive veterans or late 1st/2nd round draft picks that they would be looking to move. If you're lucky maybe they have a quality player at a redundant position that actually helps the C's but that's wishful thinking.
If we go with option A (move him as soon as possible - this offseason) If you move Smart at the end of this season, you have a whole bunch of teams who might have visions of grandeur, who may think they can build a contender for the upcoming season and that Smart may be the missing piece. You may also have teams that are willing to take a full-season rental (hoping they will convince Smart to re-sign) who would otherwise say no to a 2 month rental. So instead of 3 potential suitors you may have 7 or 8 interested teams. Bigger market means more competition, and hence more bargaining power for Danny.
Being in the off-season also means the team is in "make changes" mode. There will be draft picks, expiring contracts, free agents, etc. Boston may be able to utilise a Smart trade in conjunction with some of these other opportunities to make a deal that brings back significantly more valuable the what Smart could bring back on his own.
Now what would be possible reasons for NOT moving Smart this coming off-season? If you think Smart has a major impact on winning, and that the Celtics have potential to be a contender, then maybe you might decide that keeping Smart until he expires (and increasing the chance of a title) is more valuable then whatever extra assets you may get back from moving him early. In this current scenario I don't think the Celtics are in "championship contender" position, so I don't think this would influence my decision that much.
I hope this better explains my way of thinking - I was pretty busy at work when I wrote the last post so my head was kind of all over the place haha
