Poll: Would you trade Tatum for Ayton

[RPGenerate]

I would much rather have Trae Young or Jaren Jackson Jr. than Ayton.

I also think Bagley's ceiling is higher.

Agreed. I also believe Jaren Jackson will become a star. His impact defensively is almost unbelievable. And hes not even 20 yet.

This is true.

Perhaps this is shaping up as one of the stronger draft classes in recent years.

I think there is a bigger story here, and that is that young players today are more athletic and better prepared for the NBA than in times past. That is why I hope we hold on to our draft picks and not give them away for a one year Anthony Davis rental.

Like how Paul George was a one year rental? Or maybe how there are rumors that there are a good chance Kawhi signs with the Raptors? If Oklahoma City can get a player to buy in, the greatest sport city in America can do it too. And plus, a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

[Surferdad]

I would much rather have Trae Young or Jaren Jackson Jr. than Ayton.

I also think Bagley's ceiling is higher.

Agreed. I also believe Jaren Jackson will become a star. His impact defensively is almost unbelievable. And hes not even 20 yet.

This is true.

Perhaps this is shaping up as one of the stronger draft classes in recent years.

I think there is a bigger story here, and that is that young players today are more athletic and better prepared for the NBA than in times past. That is why I hope we hold on to our draft picks and not give them away for a one year rental of Anthony Davis.

Better athleticism and prep didn't suddenly happen last year.  That's why I said recent years.  I'd take the 2018 draft class over the previous 3 or 4.

[Moranis]

I'm surprised so many would take Tatum over Ayton. Bet if you polled the 30 GM's, 3/4 of them would take Ayton.  Maybe including Danny.

I'm not even sure there is a single GM that would take Tatum over Ayton.  Ayton has probably had one of the top 5 best rookie years in the last decade (in the mix with Doncic, Towns, Lillard, Griffin).  There are arguments that his rookie year is actually better than Doncic's, though Doncic is clearly going to win the ROY.  He plays in Phoenix, who is just bad, so he doesn't get the recognition he probably deserves.

Ayton might not even have a top 5 rookie season if you look at just these last 2 years. He's going to finish behind Doncic and Young this season. Last season, Simmons and Mitchell both had better years. Then there's a real debate between him (16,10, no defense for 2nd worst team in the league) and Tatum (14-5, solid defense for a 55 win team) for 5th.

I think Ayton has generally been underrated this season but not to this degree.

His win shares are currently 5.9, which is significantly better than Doncic's (and they've played the same amount of games and Ayton is playing less minutes per game).  He is shooting over 58% from the floor and nearly 75% from the line (and it isn't just all in close, his 3-10' % is 55 and he is a very respectable 41% from 10-16').  His PER is 20.5.  He doesn't turn the ball over much (which for a rookie big man is incredibly rare).  There is no question the Suns suck, but that isn't because of Ayton. Of the regular Suns rotation, only Holmes has a better DRTG and Holmes is the only regular rotation player with a better ORTG than him as well.  They are both also the only 2 Suns whose ORTG is larger than their DRTG.  Ayton has quite simply already eclipsed Booker as the Suns best player, and he is only going to get better (while Booker is who is at this point).  Ayton's rookie year has been absolutely fabulous.  Holding him accountable for his team is just nonsense, especially when you look at how bad the Suns have been for years and years (so it isn't like they added Ayton and fell apart).

To your point: You mention is low TO's, I'll add that his assist numbers are quite good for a rookie center. 1.8 per game is better than Tatum averaged last year. He's very good and definitely underrated.

I still think it's debatable he's having a better year than Tatum had last season and I think he's clearly below Doncic and Trae Young this year.

While I don't think he needs to be "held accountable" for his team's record, it's very relevant. Putting up good numbers on a good team is harder than putting up good numbers on a bad one. If Ayton had better teamates that could boost the Suns' record, it would almost certainly negatively impact Ayton's stats. I don't blame Ayton for the team record but it is a reality that has to be factored in.

He has generally better numbers than Doncic and Young and they are on bad teams also.  Sure they aren't as bad as Phoenix, but Dallas and Atlanta are the 5th and 6th worst teams in the league.  They aren't putting up those lesser stats on playoff teams.  And I disagree with the premise that playing with better players would make Ayton worse.  It might, but it might not, case in point Doncic's numbers are worse since the trades of Barnes, Jordan, and Matthews.  He is shooting significantly worse in fact as he hasn't been able to handle all of the attention as well as he was when some of it was deflected to his other teammates.  Dallas is 1-12 in March, which just happens to be Doncic's worst shooting month in the entire season. 

[Big333223]

I'm surprised so many would take Tatum over Ayton. Bet if you polled the 30 GM's, 3/4 of them would take Ayton.  Maybe including Danny.

I'm not even sure there is a single GM that would take Tatum over Ayton.  Ayton has probably had one of the top 5 best rookie years in the last decade (in the mix with Doncic, Towns, Lillard, Griffin).  There are arguments that his rookie year is actually better than Doncic's, though Doncic is clearly going to win the ROY.  He plays in Phoenix, who is just bad, so he doesn't get the recognition he probably deserves.

Ayton might not even have a top 5 rookie season if you look at just these last 2 years. He's going to finish behind Doncic and Young this season. Last season, Simmons and Mitchell both had better years. Then there's a real debate between him (16,10, no defense for 2nd worst team in the league) and Tatum (14-5, solid defense for a 55 win team) for 5th.

I think Ayton has generally been underrated this season but not to this degree.

His win shares are currently 5.9, which is significantly better than Doncic's (and they've played the same amount of games and Ayton is playing less minutes per game).  He is shooting over 58% from the floor and nearly 75% from the line (and it isn't just all in close, his 3-10' % is 55 and he is a very respectable 41% from 10-16').  His PER is 20.5.  He doesn't turn the ball over much (which for a rookie big man is incredibly rare).  There is no question the Suns suck, but that isn't because of Ayton. Of the regular Suns rotation, only Holmes has a better DRTG and Holmes is the only regular rotation player with a better ORTG than him as well.  They are both also the only 2 Suns whose ORTG is larger than their DRTG.  Ayton has quite simply already eclipsed Booker as the Suns best player, and he is only going to get better (while Booker is who is at this point).  Ayton's rookie year has been absolutely fabulous.  Holding him accountable for his team is just nonsense, especially when you look at how bad the Suns have been for years and years (so it isn't like they added Ayton and fell apart).

To your point: You mention is low TO's, I'll add that his assist numbers are quite good for a rookie center. 1.8 per game is better than Tatum averaged last year. He's very good and definitely underrated.

I still think it's debatable he's having a better year than Tatum had last season and I think he's clearly below Doncic and Trae Young this year.

While I don't think he needs to be "held accountable" for his team's record, it's very relevant. Putting up good numbers on a good team is harder than putting up good numbers on a bad one. If Ayton had better teamates that could boost the Suns' record, it would almost certainly negatively impact Ayton's stats. I don't blame Ayton for the team record but it is a reality that has to be factored in.

He has generally better numbers than Doncic and Young and they are on bad teams also.  Sure they aren't as bad as Phoenix, but Dallas and Atlanta are the 5th and 6th worst teams in the league.  They aren't putting up those lesser stats on playoff teams.  And I disagree with the premise that playing with better players would make Ayton worse.  It might, but it might not, case in point Doncic's numbers are worse since the trades of Barnes, Jordan, and Matthews.  He is shooting significantly worse in fact as he hasn't been able to handle all of the attention as well as he was when some of it was deflected to his other teammates.  Dallas is 1-12 in March, which just happens to be Doncic's worst shooting month in the entire season.

I'm not sure what you mean by "generally" better numbers. His rebounding numbers are better and some of the advance stats are better but he has the lowest scoring average of the three and, obviously, much lower assist numbers. His eFG% is better but he's the least versatile scorer. None of them are particularly good on defense, all playing on bad teams.

I can also just about guarantee Ayton winds up no higher than 3 on ROY balloting, for whatever that's worth and given the leadership and clutch play of Doncic and Young, that's probably where he should be. 

[SHAQATTACK]

i brke the tie

I would ,

But Suns won't

[action781]

Thing is, guys whose primarily skillset involves being large, dunking the ball, and grabbing rebounds, and who have at best theoretical range and ability to defend pick and rolls / switch on perimeter players ... just have a limited ceiling in today's game.

I mean, Rudy Gobert is absolutely great at pretty much all of that stuff, and he's a borderline All-Star.

The fact is in today's league to be really valuable with Ayton's skillset you have to be incredible.

To be really valuable with Tatum's skillset you pretty much just have to be what Tatum is already, just a bit more assertive and consistent.

The thing is... Ayton is only 20 years old.  He's still 6-9 years away from his prime.  When you talk about being valuable in "today's league"... we don't know that the trends of today's NBA will still be the trends of the NBA 6-9 years from now.  Maybe coaches figure out how to run super efficient offenses through the low post and that becomes the trend?  You never know.

[celticsclay]

Thing is, guys whose primarily skillset involves being large, dunking the ball, and grabbing rebounds, and who have at best theoretical range and ability to defend pick and rolls / switch on perimeter players ... just have a limited ceiling in today's game.

I mean, Rudy Gobert is absolutely great at pretty much all of that stuff, and he's a borderline All-Star.

The fact is in today's league to be really valuable with Ayton's skillset you have to be incredible.

To be really valuable with Tatum's skillset you pretty much just have to be what Tatum is already, just a bit more assertive and consistent.

The thing is... Ayton is only 20 years old.  He's still 6-9 years away from his prime.  When you talk about being valuable in "today's league"... we don't know that the trends of today's NBA will still be the trends of the NBA 6-9 years from now.  Maybe coaches figure out how to run super efficient offenses through the low post and that becomes the trend?  You never know.

9 years?!

[Big333223]

Thing is, guys whose primarily skillset involves being large, dunking the ball, and grabbing rebounds, and who have at best theoretical range and ability to defend pick and rolls / switch on perimeter players ... just have a limited ceiling in today's game.

I mean, Rudy Gobert is absolutely great at pretty much all of that stuff, and he's a borderline All-Star.

The fact is in today's league to be really valuable with Ayton's skillset you have to be incredible.

To be really valuable with Tatum's skillset you pretty much just have to be what Tatum is already, just a bit more assertive and consistent.

The thing is... Ayton is only 20 years old.  He's still 6-9 years away from his prime.  When you talk about being valuable in "today's league"... we don't know that the trends of today's NBA will still be the trends of the NBA 6-9 years from now.  Maybe coaches figure out how to run super efficient offenses through the low post and that becomes the trend?  You never know.

9 years?!

It depends on what is meant by "peak" and everyone is different but, fwiw, David Robinson had his best scoring seasons at 28-29. Hakeem was 30-33. Ewing, 27-28.

Ayton's peak probably won't start 9 years from now but that sounds like a sensible range, to me.

[gouki88]

Thing is, guys whose primarily skillset involves being large, dunking the ball, and grabbing rebounds, and who have at best theoretical range and ability to defend pick and rolls / switch on perimeter players ... just have a limited ceiling in today's game.

I mean, Rudy Gobert is absolutely great at pretty much all of that stuff, and he's a borderline All-Star.

The fact is in today's league to be really valuable with Ayton's skillset you have to be incredible.

To be really valuable with Tatum's skillset you pretty much just have to be what Tatum is already, just a bit more assertive and consistent.

The thing is... Ayton is only 20 years old.  He's still 6-9 years away from his prime.  When you talk about being valuable in "today's league"... we don't know that the trends of today's NBA will still be the trends of the NBA 6-9 years from now.  Maybe coaches figure out how to run super efficient offenses through the low post and that becomes the trend?  You never know.

9 years?!

It depends on what is meant by "peak" and everyone is different but, fwiw, David Robinson had his best scoring seasons at 28-29. Hakeem was 30-33. Ewing, 27-28.

Ayton's peak probably won't start 9 years from now but that sounds like a sensible range, to me.

I am applying this logic to Anthony Davis from here onward

[Androslav]

How long, and will ever Ayton become a top 5 center in the league?

Offensively I don't see ever him being better than;
Embiid, AD, DMC, Jokić, KAT, Kristaps, Aldridge, etc. this year's Vouch, our Big Al...

Defensively, the path gets even harder as he is at the bottom of the starting centers palette right now.
And we are talking about the 1st pick in the draft.
If he isn't top 5, then we got a heavily misused pick.

Will he even be better than JJ jr.?
And there will be more young talented guys coming in to make it even harder for him to profile himself.

To rephrase my initial question, when and will Ayton ever become a top 10 center in the league?

[slamtheking]

either need a new option in the poll (No, Ayton hasn't shown enough to be worth trading Tatum) OR clean up the poll responses to be a straight forward Yes or No instead of the loaded responses provided because I wouldn't call Ayton "a real big man" based on this season and Tatum's potential is a bit tarnished after this season.

[Fafnir]

I would consider it, though that has a lot to do with the fact that we have Jaylen/Hayward on the wing already.

Dunno I'd need to watch him more, the few Suns games I've watched didn't impress me.

FWIW the value of a "replacement" center is much much higher than a Wing, especially a big two way wing like Tatum. Supposedly Ayton has gotten a lot better in the second half of the season based on podcasts I've listened to, (Lowe/Mannix/etc), but I personally have not been watching the Suns at all.

[KG Living Legend]

How long, and will ever Ayton become a top 5 center in the league?

Offensively I don't see ever him being better than;
Embiid, AD, DMC, Jokić, KAT, Kristaps, Aldridge, etc. this year's Vouch, our Big Al...

Defensively, the path gets even harder as he is at the bottom of the starting centers palette right now.
And we are talking about the 1st pick in the draft.
If he isn't top 5, then we got a heavily misused pick.

Will he even be better than JJ jr.?
And there will be more young talented guys coming in to make it even harder for him to profile himself.

To rephrase my initial question, when and will Ayton ever become a top 10 center in the league?

 It's not like Ayton is not going to get a lot better. He will be a lot better and cousins in 2 years so drop him off the list. I actually think Aldridge is a pretty good comparison Aldridge average like nine points and seven rebounds his rookie year while porzingis was fourteen points and seven rebounds.

 Also was also 21 his rookie year.

[action781]

Thing is, guys whose primarily skillset involves being large, dunking the ball, and grabbing rebounds, and who have at best theoretical range and ability to defend pick and rolls / switch on perimeter players ... just have a limited ceiling in today's game.

I mean, Rudy Gobert is absolutely great at pretty much all of that stuff, and he's a borderline All-Star.

The fact is in today's league to be really valuable with Ayton's skillset you have to be incredible.

To be really valuable with Tatum's skillset you pretty much just have to be what Tatum is already, just a bit more assertive and consistent.

The thing is... Ayton is only 20 years old.  He's still 6-9 years away from his prime.  When you talk about being valuable in "today's league"... we don't know that the trends of today's NBA will still be the trends of the NBA 6-9 years from now.  Maybe coaches figure out how to run super efficient offenses through the low post and that becomes the trend?  You never know.

9 years?!

A typical NBA player's prime is between ages 26-29.  So yeah he's 6-9 years away from his prime.  Typically its a slow decline in ages 30, 31, 32 and then the drop off starts to become steeper.  Again, this is just the average player... it doesn't describe everyone. 

Big333 gave some context already with Hakeem, Robinson and Ewing, but some more context if needed is MJ and Lebron both won their first rings at age 27.  Shaq's 3 consecutive rings came at 27, 28, and 29.

For fun, I'm going to look up the average age of the league MVP since the turn of the century.

1999–00  Shaquille O'Neal - 27
2000–01    Allen Iverson - 25
2001–02    Tim Duncan - 25
2002–03  Tim Duncan - 26
2003–04    Kevin Garnett - 27
2004–05    Steve Nash - 30
2005–06    Steve Nash - 31
2006–07    Dirk Nowitzki - 28
2007–08    Kobe Bryant  - 29   
2008–09    LeBron James - 24
2009–10    LeBron James - 25
2010–11    Derrick Rose - 22
2011–12  LeBron James - 27
2012–13  LeBron James - 28
2013–14    Kevin Durant - 25
2014–15  Stephen Curry - 26
2015–16    Stephen Curry - 27
2016–17    Russell Westbrook - 28
2017–18    James Harden - 28

[action781]

Thing is, guys whose primarily skillset involves being large, dunking the ball, and grabbing rebounds, and who have at best theoretical range and ability to defend pick and rolls / switch on perimeter players ... just have a limited ceiling in today's game.

I mean, Rudy Gobert is absolutely great at pretty much all of that stuff, and he's a borderline All-Star.

The fact is in today's league to be really valuable with Ayton's skillset you have to be incredible.

To be really valuable with Tatum's skillset you pretty much just have to be what Tatum is already, just a bit more assertive and consistent.

The thing is... Ayton is only 20 years old.  He's still 6-9 years away from his prime.  When you talk about being valuable in "today's league"... we don't know that the trends of today's NBA will still be the trends of the NBA 6-9 years from now.  Maybe coaches figure out how to run super efficient offenses through the low post and that becomes the trend?  You never know.

9 years?!

It depends on what is meant by "peak" and everyone is different but, fwiw, David Robinson had his best scoring seasons at 28-29. Hakeem was 30-33. Ewing, 27-28.

Ayton's peak probably won't start 9 years from now but that sounds like a sensible range, to me.

I am applying this logic to Anthony Davis from here onward

This is why I, for one, am extremely excited for the years that lie ahead for Ant Davis and want him so badly on our team.  He's probably just coming into his prime now and will sustain it for a solid 4 years followed by a gentle tapering off for the ~3 years after that.