Memphis Grizzlies 2019-2020 Watch Thread (#14)

[tazzmaniac]

Hard to see the Grizzlies pick being better than 10.  Pick 10 would mean the Spurs, Suns, Trailblazers and Pelicans all manage to pass them.  I don't see any of the non-playoff East teams catching them.

I think the pick will be between 11 and 14.  Can a team picking there move up into the top 4 (or top 6, etc?) via lottery?

Yes they can. In fact the odds of it happening have increased in recent years.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_draft_lottery#2019

I thought the lottery was only for the top 3 spots.  Did that change?

You’re right. I just mean that the odds of landing a Top 3 pick have “leveled out” in recent years. So if the Grizzlies finish 9th, they still have an okay shot of ultimately finishing in a Top 3 spot.

The lottery is for the Top 4 spots now.  That changed last draft when they adjusted the odds. 

[Sophomore]

Hard to see the Grizzlies pick being better than 10.  Pick 10 would mean the Spurs, Suns, Trailblazers and Pelicans all manage to pass them.  I don't see any of the non-playoff East teams catching them.

I think the pick will be between 11 and 14.  Can a team picking there move up into the top 4 (or top 6, etc?) via lottery?

Yes they can. In fact the odds of it happening have increased in recent years.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_draft_lottery#2019

I thought the lottery was only for the top 3 spots.  Did that change?

You’re right. I just mean that the odds of landing a Top 3 pick have “leveled out” in recent years. So if the Grizzlies finish 9th, they still have an okay shot of ultimately finishing in a Top 3 spot.

The lottery is for the Top 4 spots now.  That changed last draft when they adjusted the odds.

Yup. And if the Grizz just miss the playoffs this year and win the lottery, it’s really bad news for the Cs. The following year their young core will have another year of experience, they’ll add another good young player, and they’ll have a lot of cap space. Memphis isn’t LA, but not every player likes that kind of spotlight and going to a team with a bright future might appeal especially to some veteran role players who can complement the young stars. Memphis would push for a playoff spot and I would not bet against them.

[td450]

One thing that struck me watching the game last night was that Jaren Jackson Jr. was bigger than I thought, and I was also surprised how often he attacked the rim off the dribble. I knew he could defend and could shoot, but it looks like he is going to evolve into a complete offensive player too.

Outside of Giannis or Anthony Davis, he might be the best big asset in the league. I'd even rather have him than Towns because of his age and positive disposition.

Last thought was that we just beat two teams with HUGE frontcourts in a row. I really like the way Theis and Kanter complement each other, and don't think we need anything else at center. When we lose, its for other reasons.

[saltlover]

Hard to see the Grizzlies pick being better than 10.  Pick 10 would mean the Spurs, Suns, Trailblazers and Pelicans all manage to pass them.  I don't see any of the non-playoff East teams catching them.

I think the pick will be between 11 and 14.  Can a team picking there move up into the top 4 (or top 6, etc?) via lottery?

Yes they can. In fact the odds of it happening have increased in recent years.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_draft_lottery#2019

I thought the lottery was only for the top 3 spots.  Did that change?

You’re right. I just mean that the odds of landing a Top 3 pick have “leveled out” in recent years. So if the Grizzlies finish 9th, they still have an okay shot of ultimately finishing in a Top 3 spot.

The lottery is for the Top 4 spots now.  That changed last draft when they adjusted the odds.

Yup. And if the Grizz just miss the playoffs this year and win the lottery, it’s really bad news for the Cs. The following year their young core will have another year of experience, they’ll add another good young player, and they’ll have a lot of cap space. Memphis isn’t LA, but not every player likes that kind of spotlight and going to a team with a bright future might appeal especially to some veteran role players who can complement the young stars. Memphis would push for a playoff spot and I would not bet against them.

I’m not sold.  The Grizzlies remind me more of the 2014-2015 Phoenix Suns than they do a team likely to break through.  They’ve got the 19th Offensive Rating, 22nd Defensive rating, and 21st net rating.  They’ve got cap space in a summer of devoid of many top players on the market.  Would a top pick help?  Maybe, but many of the top prospects are point guards, which would help Memphis less if they pick the BPA.  Would I bet against Memphis for a playoff spot next year if they miss this year and jump up in the lottery?  Absolutely.  There are three teams in the West, currently outside of the playoff position, that I see ahead of Memphis next year — Golden State, New Orleans, and Portland.

I think this year the Grizzlies will ultimately end up in the 8-12 range (which will be separated by about 2 games across 5 teams), and next year will be the same.  I like their future, but I think their true ascent starts in year 3 of Ja.

[Sophomore]

Hard to see the Grizzlies pick being better than 10.  Pick 10 would mean the Spurs, Suns, Trailblazers and Pelicans all manage to pass them.  I don't see any of the non-playoff East teams catching them.

I think the pick will be between 11 and 14.  Can a team picking there move up into the top 4 (or top 6, etc?) via lottery?

Yes they can. In fact the odds of it happening have increased in recent years.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_draft_lottery#2019

I thought the lottery was only for the top 3 spots.  Did that change?

You’re right. I just mean that the odds of landing a Top 3 pick have “leveled out” in recent years. So if the Grizzlies finish 9th, they still have an okay shot of ultimately finishing in a Top 3 spot.

The lottery is for the Top 4 spots now.  That changed last draft when they adjusted the odds.

Yup. And if the Grizz just miss the playoffs this year and win the lottery, it’s really bad news for the Cs. The following year their young core will have another year of experience, they’ll add another good young player, and they’ll have a lot of cap space. Memphis isn’t LA, but not every player likes that kind of spotlight and going to a team with a bright future might appeal especially to some veteran role players who can complement the young stars. Memphis would push for a playoff spot and I would not bet against them.

I’m not sold.  The Grizzlies remind me more of the 2014-2015 Phoenix Suns than they do a team likely to break through.  They’ve got the 19th Offensive Rating, 22nd Defensive rating, and 21st net rating.  They’ve got cap space in a summer of devoid of many top players on the market.  Would a top pick help?  Maybe, but many of the top prospects are point guards, which would help Memphis less if they pick the BPA.  Would I bet against Memphis for a playoff spot next year if they miss this year and jump up in the lottery?  Absolutely.  There are three teams in the West, currently outside of the playoff position, that I see ahead of Memphis next year — Golden State, New Orleans, and Portland.

I think this year the Grizzlies will ultimately end up in the 8-12 range (which will be separated by about 2 games across 5 teams), and next year will be the same.  I like their future, but I think their true ascent starts in year 3 of Ja.

We’ll see. To me, their main “acquisition” would be from within - the improvement of Morant and Jackson and Clarke, plus a year of continuity with Valanciunas. But beyond that they don’t need to add a star to get to the playoffs. A solid veteran role player or two to complement the young guys could round out a playoff team. And if they’re on the cusp it could be an attractive destination for the right guy - certainly better than going to a dregs-level team.

Plus, of course, the hypo includes winning the lottery. What if they add another Morant- level talent to that team? That’s a wildcard we can’t easily project but I wouldn’t bet against him being a useful piece. Remember year 1 Tatum? Not as good as today’s version but definitely a plus.

[Fafnir]

Yeah they could easily fall back next year similar to the Kings. Its pretty easy for a young team to suffer a few injuries or otherwise stall out and slip back from the 30 win bracket into the deep lottery again.

Of course that could mean we get another mid-lottery pick and then they get another high pick in a better draft.

I'd be bemoaning the awful luck of it all but after winning the draft lottery to get Tatum and getting the third pick to get Brown the C's have done well when rooting for other team's picks on the whole.

[Moranis]

Yeah they could easily fall back next year similar to the Kings. Its pretty easy for a young team to suffer a few injuries or otherwise stall out and slip back from the 30 win bracket into the deep lottery again.

Of course that could mean we get another mid-lottery pick and then they get another high pick in a better draft.

I'd be bemoaning the awful luck of it all but after winning the draft lottery to get Tatum and getting the third pick to get Brown the C's have done well when rooting for other team's picks on the whole.

A lot of the Kings problems are going from an excellent coach in Joerger to a crappy coach in Walton.  Also doesn't help that Fox has missed a ton of games and Bagley can't get healthy either, but coaching matters a great deal, especially for a young team. 

[Fafnir]

I read an article (or maybe it was a podcast?) somewhere that broke down that the expected eFG% of the Grizz during this run was running quite high (the measure accounts for shooting ability and shot location) and their defense was still bad even over their big hot streak.

So I do think they're likely to fall back, though none of the other teams going for the 8th seed are that impressive. But someone has to get the prize of getting mauled by the Lakers. I guess the Spurs seem the most likely team, especially if LMA can keep shooting and hitting 3s to open driving lanes for White/DeRozen/Murray.

Just a lot of meh teams fighting for the 8 seed. Pelicans/Grizz/Spurs/Portland/Suns/Wolves

[tonydelk]

We need some of the Celtic Luck.  First Sacramento plays out of their ass last year and stink this year.  Now Memphis is playing out of their minds right now and will probably stink next year as well.  I was really hoping that the Sacramento pick was going to be top 5 and the Memphis pick top 8. 

[nickagneta]

Let's hope the drubbing that the CS gave the Grizz demoralized them to the point of falling into a good hole old fashioned double digit losing streak.

[hwangjini_1]

Let's hope the drubbing that the

CS gave the Grizz demoralized them to the point of falling into a good hole old fashioned double digit losing streak.

if by double digit losing streak you mean 30+ games, then i could not agree more. 

[nickagneta]

Let's hope the drubbing that the

CS gave the Grizz demoralized them to the point of falling into a good hole old fashioned double digit losing streak.

if by double digit losing streak you mean 30+ games, then i could not agree more. 

Lol....TP

[SDceltGuy]

Who's Js are going to be better?
Ja and JJJ or Jayson and Jaylen?

[Sophomore]

Who's Js are going to be better?
Ja and JJJ or Jayson and Jaylen?

I’m a little worried now; they do have more Js.

[gouki88]

Who's Js are going to be better?
Ja and JJJ or Jayson and Jaylen?

I’m a little worried now; they do have more Js.

If that was they key to success wheres JaJuan Johnson?