CelticsStrong
Around the League => Transaction Ideas and Rumors => Topic started by: Hawkeye199 on March 10, 2018, 05:25:59 PM
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I have been thinking about how this team can be set up for the future. How can a young new big three coexist with a current big there? First things first we have Marcus smart.
Marcus is an infuriating player to watch. He constantly takes these assinine shots that drive you insane. Yet, the team does better with him out there. He encourages hustle play and really brings the team to life. The plus-minus stats really back this idea up. Unfortunately, it showed when he missed time from his hand injury. I think Lou Williams deal helps the Celtics show Marcus that he is not gonna find much money out in the market. I think a 4 year 30 million deal for Smart would be a good deal.
The Celtics do have Terry Rozier who has been playing very well as a role player. So well that I would argue he deserves more minutes. The Celtics don't have the playing time to give. With Hayward coming back next year and absorbing 30 minutes, As well as eventually another lottery pick aka the kings pick I don't see where Rozier plays.
I think Rozier's value could decrease if he is sitting on a bench too much. The Lakers pick is most likely not panning out for a top pick. Therefore, I propose that we package Rozier and the Kings pick for a top pick aka get our big man of the future.
Rozier is a young point guard that a lot of teams could find useful. Teams like Orlando, Pacers, Atlanta, Memphis, Denver etc.
I personally see Jarren Jackson jr or Wendall carter as our potential future guys. Either way, the big man top pick would replace Aaron Baynes minutes as 15-20 minutes where they switch between being on the bench and starting.
Tatum takes marcus morris's role of starting based don the matchup
Startinging line up of
Kyrie
Brown
Hayward
Tatum/lottery pick
Horford
6th man: Smart
7th man Morris
8th man:theis
9th man Semi
Hayward then takes the combined minutes of rozier and Monroe to get 30 minutes
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One year of Rozier and a Sacramento pick that could end up in the 20s is not getting you into the lottery this year.
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One year of Rozier and a Sacramento pick that could end up in the 20s is not getting you into the lottery this year.
while your specific point is probably correct (rozier & pick in the 20s), i have trouble believing the next year's sacramento pick will be in the bottom third of the draft.
for the past five years sacramento's draft place was:
5th
8th
6th
8th
7th
unless you can provide a strong argument that they have somehow turned the corner, i see another year of a prime draft pick from them.
plus, the celtics will also have the following:
2019 first round draft pick from L.A. Clippers
L.A. Clippers' 1st round pick to Boston (via Memphis) protected for selections 1-14 in 2019
2019 first round draft pick from Memphis
Memphis' 1st round pick to Boston protected for selections 1-8 in 2019
It is quite possible the celtics will have the assets to bundle with the sacramento pick and move up a tiny bit.
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One year of Rozier and a Sacramento pick that could end up in the 20s is not getting you into the lottery this year.
while your specific point is probably correct (rozier & pick in the 20s), i have trouble believing the next year's sacramento pick will be in the bottom third of the draft.
for the past five years sacramento's draft place was:
5th
8th
6th
8th
7th
unless you can provide a strong argument that they have somehow turned the corner, i see another year of a prime draft pick from them.
plus, the celtics will also have the following:
2019 first round draft pick from L.A. Clippers
L.A. Clippers' 1st round pick to Boston (via Memphis) protected for selections 1-14 in 2019
2019 first round draft pick from Memphis
Memphis' 1st round pick to Boston protected for selections 1-8 in 2019
It is quite possible the celtics will have the assets to bundle with the sacramento pick and move up a tiny bit.
Sacramento is horrible. If they end up with the #1 pick, Philly keeps that pick and Boston gets Philly's pick, which given how good they could be, would put the pick in the 20s.
Remember, that Sac pick is #1 protected.
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Its not going first...no way.
The lottery reform will practically make it imposible for it to go number one plus I don't see the Kings really bad enough to lose 60 games.
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TP for an interesting idea.
*Maybe* that offer gets us into the 7-10 range, but I think it's still too light. Probably need to add at least one more pick, maybe even the Memphis pick. Sacto's pick is probably going to be good, but I think it's most likely going to be a lateral move (landing, say, 5-10) but deferred a year. It *might* be better, sure, but it just as well might be worse. A team exec pitched on turning this year's 8th pick into next year's 8th pick and TRoz probably isn't all that excited - and the downside risk is real. TRoz is a solid backup PG or a so-so starter with only one year left on his rookie deal; his RFA rights are useful but of limited value. He's an important piece on a complete team; I'm not sure what he's worth to an Orlando.
Once we start adding picks, we better be very, very confident of our evaluation of the guy we're getting. We really need some young players to hit, given the way our salary cap sheet looks going forward, and next year is (knock on wood for injuries) our first real shot at a title. I can see Terry three sticks being an important part of that drive. I don't want to give that up lightly.
But of course, you never know. Maybe Orlando likes TRoz and really wants someone to set the table for Gordon and Isaac. If they think they've got an Oladipo-type steal maybe they go for it. I don't see Dallas paying big after drafting Dennis Smith; I'm not sure how Atlanta values Schroeder, but trading a high pick for TRoz would be essentially giving up on DS. Don't see that.
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Danny has had terrible luck consolidating pieces to make a move up the draft (for the better so far). It just isn't going to happen.
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Danny needs to spy on Spurs recruiting people.
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Danny has had terrible luck consolidating pieces to make a move up the draft (for the better so far). It just isn't going to happen.
Not just Danny, moving up in the NBA draft is hard to do. A single elite player makes a much bigger difference in basketball than in football, for example. Also, the top-5 to -7 of the 2018 draft looks really good, who would give up such an opportunity for TR.
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One year of Rozier and a Sacramento pick that could end up in the 20s is not getting you into the lottery this year.
You've said this several times, but just because something could happen doesn't mean it's likely to happen and it definitely doesn't mean teams value that pick as if it landing in the 20's is a high probability. If that were the case then surely Ainge would have had different protections on the LAL portion of the pick and not just limit it to 2-5, right? That pick has a ton of value and that value is based on the overwhelming odds that it will be a high lottery pick. I'm sure teams will play the odds and trading away a 6-10 lottery pick to potentially grab one as high as #2 in 19 and also receive a young player you have full rights to, one that has done extremely well in a starting role, is pretty enticing.
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Therefore, I propose that we package Rozier and the Kings pick for a top pick aka get our big man of the future.
There is a zero percent change the Kings pick is traded for another draft pick.
Either way, the big man top pick would replace Aaron Baynes minutes as 15-20 minutes where they switch between being on the bench and starting.
There is a less than zero percent chance that a rookie center would start for the Celtics.
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Therefore, I propose that we package Rozier and the Kings pick for a top pick aka get our big man of the future.
There is a zero percent change the Kings pick is traded for another draft pick.
Either way, the big man top pick would replace Aaron Baynes minutes as 15-20 minutes where they switch between being on the bench and starting.
There is a less than zero percent chance that a rookie center would start for the Celtics.
Zero chance the pick is traded for a pick in this year's draft? Why?
Oh, and rookie Theis has started 3 games this season or do those less than zero percent odds apply next season?
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We have enough rookies to develope for now. As a contending team, our primary focus should be on bringing some established players (not stars) who can leave an impact on our play immediately. That means, if we would trade Rozier or Smart we should try to Exchange them for guys liek Lou-Will, for example, Evans or someone similar. We are officialy a contender starting from October this year (if all healthy) so no more time for rookies. Our time is already booked for Tatum, Brown and Theis.
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One year of Rozier and a Sacramento pick that could end up in the 20s is not getting you into the lottery this year.
You've said this several times, but just because something could happen doesn't mean it's likely to happen and it definitely doesn't mean teams value that pick as if it landing in the 20's is a high probability. If that were the case then surely Ainge would have had different protections on the LAL portion of the pick and not just limit it to 2-5, right? That pick has a ton of value and that value is based on the overwhelming odds that it will be a high lottery pick. I'm sure teams will play the odds and trading away a 6-10 lottery pick to potentially grab one as high as #2 in 19 and also receive a young player you have full rights to, one that has done extremely well in a starting role, is pretty enticing.
Eddie, when we owned the Brooklyn picks and Brooklyn was a bottom three team, teams wanted a ton more than that pick when we discussed trades prior to the draft deadline because they didn't value that pick as a top 3 pick because of the great chance it could land loeer.
The Sac pick has a 9 to 14 percent chance of landing in the late teens to early 20s. It stands a huge chance of landing between 6 and 9. Teams in a top heavy very talented draft this year aren't going to trade a guaranteed top 5-6 pick in this draft for a pick next year in a much weaker draft that has a huge chance of being lower in the draft than this year.
GMs who have high picks fixate on guys and in turn way overvalue their pick. This trade just would not happen.
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One year of Rozier and a Sacramento pick that could end up in the 20s is not getting you into the lottery this year.
You've said this several times, but just because something could happen doesn't mean it's likely to happen and it definitely doesn't mean teams value that pick as if it landing in the 20's is a high probability. If that were the case then surely Ainge would have had different protections on the LAL portion of the pick and not just limit it to 2-5, right? That pick has a ton of value and that value is based on the overwhelming odds that it will be a high lottery pick. I'm sure teams will play the odds and trading away a 6-10 lottery pick to potentially grab one as high as #2 in 19 and also receive a young player you have full rights to, one that has done extremely well in a starting role, is pretty enticing.
Eddie, when we owned the Brooklyn picks and Brooklyn was a bottom three team, teams wanted a ton more than that pick when we discussed trades prior to the draft deadline because they didn't value that pick as a top 3 pick because of the great chance it could land loeer.
Yet the Brooklyn pick what was most coveted in a package for Irving. Irving is clearly way more valuable than a 6-10 pick, so if a Brooklyn pick, a damaged Isaiah, and Crowder is enough to get him isn't it conceivable then to think Sacramento and Rozier is enough to get a player in the mid-lottery?
A protection on the pick, such as adding the Clippers or C's own 1st, if the Kings pick doesn't covey and it's instead the Sixers pick that's dealt seems reasonable for a Wendell Carter type player (not even talking about Ayton). In fact, I don't even think parting with Rozier and the Kings pick is the right move for a player like Carter. However, I do agree with the OP that it is entirely possible than a team would be really intrigued by that package.
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One year of Rozier and a Sacramento pick that could end up in the 20s is not getting you into the lottery this year.
LOOOL
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One year of Rozier and a Sacramento pick that could end up in the 20s is not getting you into the lottery this year.
while your specific point is probably correct (rozier & pick in the 20s), i have trouble believing the next year's sacramento pick will be in the bottom third of the draft.
for the past five years sacramento's draft place was:
5th
8th
6th
8th
7th
unless you can provide a strong argument that they have somehow turned the corner, i see another year of a prime draft pick from them.
plus, the celtics will also have the following:
2019 first round draft pick from L.A. Clippers
L.A. Clippers' 1st round pick to Boston (via Memphis) protected for selections 1-14 in 2019
2019 first round draft pick from Memphis
Memphis' 1st round pick to Boston protected for selections 1-8 in 2019
It is quite possible the celtics will have the assets to bundle with the sacramento pick and move up a tiny bit.
Sacramento is horrible. If they end up with the #1 pick, Philly keeps that pick and Boston gets Philly's pick, which given how good they could be, would put the pick in the 20s.
Remember, that Sac pick is #1 protected.
So while the pick could be in the 20s, by saying that you are also agreeing that the pick has probably something like a 70% chance of ending up in the top 4 or 5 which I'm assuming will be valued quite highly because it looks like it might have two draft classes worth of elite guys and possibly Michael Porter Jr. on top of that. (1 and done guys plus possible high school kids).
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One year of Rozier and a Sacramento pick that could end up in the 20s is not getting you into the lottery this year.
The Philly pick which is tied to the Sac pick could end up in the 20s, but its misleading to say the Sac pick could end up in the 20s. There's pretty much 0 chance of that.
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I've come back over to the keep Rozier camp. Early in discussions of Rozier's future, I argued vehemently for trading him. However, my reasoning is more of a hybrid of the two ideas. Hear me out:
Rozier becomes a restricted free agent the same summer as Irving and Horford, 2019. The Celtics are expected to take their first dip into the Luxury Tax, something they can no longer avoid. Fortuitous timing will and standard rookie contract structuring give the Celtics bird rights to Rozier exactly when they are not worried about paying too much. Despite possibly racking up a bigger bill, keeping Rozier on a new deal will help to maximize his value to the Celtics.
Retaining Rozier benefits the Celtics in the short term in two ways. First, they are only paying him three million dollars next season, an unheard of price for a sixth man. Second, he will still hold this bench together with the expected improvements the team has been harvesting. The steady improvements are a major reason why this move also works for the long haul.
Signing Rozier beyond the 2019 summer will offer the Celtics a chance to collect on their patience. Most of us agree Rozier could be a starter and a fringe all-star. We point to his steady growth as a good indicator he will continue to grow. I agree, but there will be a point he will be strangled by his limited role. Just like a plant stuck in an undersized pot, we know it will struggle to grow. The best solution to this problem is to get a bigger pot with more soil, essentially more room. The same applies to Rozier. This is where both sides come together, just farther down the road than we expect.
Trading Rozier in the summer of 2020 will be the best opportunity for the Celtics to maximize his value. We will get 2 more seasons of steady improvements, he will get paid, and another team will be willing to pay near top dollar for a 26-year-old Rozier.
The extra two seasons out of Rozier will do a few things. First, it will help Irving weather his chronic knee soreness. Provide the bench scoring the team desperately will need, keeping this team's champion ceiling high. Allow the Celtics to determine what direction they want to go in the future. By paying Rozier, the waiting will open up new doors that they wouldn't have if they traded him this summer.
As for his trade value two seasons from now, Rozier will have ironed out some kinks in his game: possibly improved playmaking, higher shooting percentages, and better pick and roll defense. Rounding out as a player who can take on point guard responsibilities, on either side of the ball, will make a team, desperate for a starting point guard, salivate. This is where the Celtics get their return on Rozier. Affordable in this case doesn't actually mean cheap.
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I've come back over to the keep Rozier camp. Early in discussions of Rozier's future, I argued vehemently for trading him. However, my reasoning is more of a hybrid of the two ideas. Hear me out:
Rozier becomes a restricted free agent the same summer as Irving and Horford, 2019. The Celtics are expected to take their first dip into the Luxury Tax, something they can no longer avoid. Fortuitous timing will and standard rookie contract structuring give the Celtics bird rights to Rozier exactly when they are not worried about paying too much. Despite possibly racking up a bigger bill, keeping Rozier on a new deal will help to maximize his value to the Celtics.
Retaining Rozier benefits the Celtics in the short term in two ways. First, they are only paying him three million dollars next season, an unheard of price for a sixth man. Second, he will still hold this bench together with the expected improvements the team has been harvesting. The steady improvements are a major reason why this move also works for the long haul.
Signing Rozier beyond the 2019 summer will offer the Celtics a chance to collect on their patience. Most of us agree Rozier could be a starter and a fringe all-star. We point to his steady growth as a good indicator he will continue to grow. I agree, but there will be a point he will be strangled by his limited role. Just like a plant stuck in an undersized pot, we know it will struggle to grow. The best solution to this problem is to get a bigger pot with more soil, essentially more room. The same applies to Rozier. This is where both sides come together, just farther down the road than we expect.
Trading Rozier in the summer of 2020 will be the best opportunity for the Celtics to maximize his value. We will get 2 more seasons of steady improvements, he will get paid, and another team will be willing to pay near top dollar for a 26-year-old Rozier.
The extra two seasons out of Rozier will do a few things. First, it will help Irving weather his chronic knee soreness. Provide the bench scoring the team desperately will need, keeping this team's champion ceiling high. Allow the Celtics to determine what direction they want to go in the future. By paying Rozier, the waiting will open up new doors that they wouldn't have if they traded him this summer.
As for his trade value two seasons from now, Rozier will have ironed out some kinks in his game: possibly improved playmaking, higher shooting percentages, and better pick and roll defense. Rounding out as a player who can take on point guard responsibilities, on either side of the ball, will make a team, desperate for a starting point guard, salivate. This is where the Celtics get their return on Rozier. Affordable in this case doesn't actually mean cheap.
1. Kyrie is a free agent in 2019, same as Rozier is a RFA. Horford has a player option in 2019 but he isn't going to opt out, so I don't know why you are claiming Kyrie, Horford and Rozier all come off together.
2. No way do I see Rozier being a future All-Star. Possibly a future starter on a bad team, but thats best case scenario.
3. What exactly are you suggesting when you say pay Rozier. At this point he probably is, at best, a $7-8 million a year player. Don't see him getting much more than that.
4. The only thing that is going to get Kyrie's knee better is offseason surgery, not resting while playing a lot less minutes and giving those minutes to Rozier