What "Tier" players will we be selecting 4-6?

[LarBrd33]

Every year Chad Ford breaks down his draft board into "Tiers".   Sometimes there aren't any prospects in Tier 1.   Has he done it for this year yet?  I'm just curious what level of player will be on the board if we're drafting in the 4-6 range.  Here's his previous "Tiers" for reference.  Obviously some players exceeded expectations and others failed to live up to their potential.


2011:

Tier 1 -  None
Tier 2 -  Kyrie Irving, Derrick Williams.   
Tier 3 -  Kanter, Knight, Leonard, Valanciunas, Vesely, Kemba Walker

2012:

Tier 1 - Anthony Davis
Tier 2 - Barnes, MKG, Beal, Thomas Robinson
Tier 3 -  Drummond, Lillard, Waiters


2013:

Tier 1 - None
Tier 2 - None
Tier 3 - Bennett, Len, McLemore, Noel, Oladipo, Porter Jr

2014:

Tier 1 - Embiid, Parker Wiggins
Tier 2 - Exum, Gordon, Randle, Saric, Smart, Vonleh
Tier 3 - Harris, McDermott, Stauskas

2015:

Tier 1 -  Towns   
Tier 2 -  Mudiay, Okafor, Porzingis, Russell   
Tier 3 -  WCS, Hezonja, Winslow

[Who]

Tier 4

[KG Living Legend]

 Tier 1 definitely has two players in Simmons and Ingram and I don't give a dag nabbit what Ford says.

[LarBrd33]

Tier 4

Are either Simmons or Ingram in Tier 1?   Or are they Tier 2 followed by a couple Tier 3 and then our options in Tier 4?

[LarBrd33]

 Tier 1 definitely has two players in Simmons and Ingram and I don't give a dag nabbit what Ford says.

Well from what I understand, he gets a lot of this info from Gms around the league.  But yeah, there's definitely a lot of valid criticism of Ford.  There was a mild scandal early last year where he was caught retroactively editing his draft boards years later to make himself look more accurate.  Then when it got out, I think ESPN quickly changed all his boards to reflect their original list.

I do like the concept of Tiers, though.  It's a helpful way of looking at the qualify of a draft's potential.

[Quetzalcoatl]

I'm starting to think it's:

Tier 1: Simmons, Ingram
Tier 2: none
Tier 3: Dragan Bender
Tier 4: Hield, Brown, Murray, Dunn, Poeltl

[PhoSita]

You'll have to define the terms, since I forget what the specifications of each tier are exactly.


It seems to me that in the 4-6 range the names available will probably include Brown, Murray, Hield, Dunn, and Poeltl.

Based on the names you listed, it looks to me like those guys would probably be Tier 2 or 3, depending on how you define it and value their strengths and weaknesses.


Basically, my hope and expectation is the Celts will draft a guy with a floor as a productive role player and a ceiling around the level of above average starter, with a shot at reaching an All-Star level.  Which is pretty much what we hoped to get in Smart.  Not sure if he's still on track to meet those expectations.

As in most drafts, only a top 2 or 3 pick will give a chance at a real-deal All-Star caliber prospect.

[Ilikesports17]

Ingram and Simmons are both great, but Ingram from what Ive read and watched is not very explosive and while Simmons is still a high-level athlete hes no where near Wiggins or Lebron or even Jabari Parker (based on just me watching the games)

this gives me some hesitation in putting them in tier 1.

I think they both fit in at tier 1.5, but for simplicities sake Ill throw them in 1.

the rest of the tiers are a mess. I honestly have no idea what to make of Bender. Murray seems great, Dunn and Hield are both studs, but I think its tough to judge upperclassmen. Guys like Hood, Dray, Butler, Crowder seem to suggest that age is not an issue, but then theres the Acie Laws of the world. Jaylen Brown is the best athlete of the draft in my mind, but he seems to be just that. Then you have the guys like Sabonis.

If I had to tier it:
1: simmons and Ingram
2: Murray
3: Hield, Dunn
4: Bender, Poeltl, Brown

My favorite part of the draft is all the high ceiling bigs coming in the 10+ range
Maker, Labissiere, Rabb, Davis, Chriss, and that doesnt even account for guys like Sabonis and Ellenson.

Ideally for me, we move the pick (Cousins, Butler, Love, Okafor, you name it) then scoop one of these guys with a later pick.

[Celtics18]

You'll have to define the terms, since I forget what the specifications of each tier are exactly.


It seems to me that in the 4-6 range the names available will probably include Brown, Murray, Hield, Dunn, and Poeltl.

Based on the names you listed, it looks to me like those guys would probably be Tier 2 or 3, depending on how you define it and value their strengths and weaknesses.


Basically, my hope and expectation is the Celts will draft a guy with a floor as a productive role player and a ceiling around the level of above average starter, with a shot at reaching an All-Star level.  Which is pretty much what we hoped to get in Smart.  Not sure if he's still on track to meet those expectations.

As in most drafts, only a top 2 or 3 pick will give a chance at a real-deal All-Star caliber prospect.

That last sentence is obviously untrue.  "Real deal All Stars" are actually fairly common later in the lottery.  For some reason (probably a complete anomaly), the ninth and tenth picks have yielded way more than their expected share.

[gift]

I've never liked the Tiers. Always seems like people just take a mock draft and draw arbitrary lines.

[PhoSita]

That last sentence is obviously untrue.  "Real deal All Stars" are actually fairly common later in the lottery.  For some reason (probably a complete anomaly), the ninth and tenth picks have yielded way more than their expected share.

This goes back to our discussion in a thread you posted a few days ago.

What I'm talking about is not outcomes, but what we see on draft day.

In this draft there are only two guys I'm really confident pegging as future All-Star caliber players.  Simmons and Ingram.

Chances are, there will be other very good players from this draft class.  And it's possible one or both of those guys falls short of that level.  But we're talking about how they present as prospects on draft day, not what will be four or five years from now.

I hope the guy the Celts take at 5 or 6, if that's where they pick, turns into an All-Star.  I hope that about every guy the Celts draft, however unlikely.  I just don't expect it.

If the Celts drafted Ben Simmons, I'd expect him to become an All-Star.  Anything less would be a disappointment.

[Quetzalcoatl]

I honestly have no idea what to make of Bender.

Here are some recent box scores from Dragan:

http://maccabi.co.il/GameZone.asp?GameID=8366&cYear=2016&lang=en#sthash.HMPxHXOc.dpbs
-13 points in 19 minutes

http://maccabi.co.il/GameZone.asp?GameID=8365&cYear=2016&lang=en#sthash.yh9VRmov.dpbs
12 points in 23 minutes, 3/5 from 3

http://maccabi.co.il/GameZone.asp?GameID=8321&cYear=2016&lang=en#sthash.2vWhKhba.dpbs
17 points in 22 minutes

Then he had a few other games with like 7 or 8 points, then before that he straight up wasn't even getting minutes.  So basically, he started getting minutes in the last month or so and he's been producing relatively well.  He has better size and fundamentals than the Murray/Dunn/Hield/Brown crew.  He's 7'1" and can shoot the 3.  I was really down on him all year and thought he screamed bust, but now he's kind of coming into his own and proving himself.  I would be happy with him at 3.

[PhoSita]

Any video?

[Denis998]

I honestly have no idea what to make of Bender.

Here are some recent box scores from Dragan:

http://maccabi.co.il/GameZone.asp?GameID=8366&cYear=2016&lang=en#sthash.HMPxHXOc.dpbs
-13 points in 19 minutes

http://maccabi.co.il/GameZone.asp?GameID=8365&cYear=2016&lang=en#sthash.yh9VRmov.dpbs
12 points in 23 minutes, 3/5 from 3

http://maccabi.co.il/GameZone.asp?GameID=8321&cYear=2016&lang=en#sthash.2vWhKhba.dpbs
17 points in 22 minutes

Then he had a few other games with like 7 or 8 points, then before that he straight up wasn't even getting minutes.  So basically, he started getting minutes in the last month or so and he's been producing relatively well.  He has better size and fundamentals than the Murray/Dunn/Hield/Brown crew.  He's 7'1" and can shoot the 3.  I was really down on him all year and thought he screamed bust, but now he's kind of coming into his own and proving himself.  I would be happy with him at 3.

any idea what his 3 point percentage is this season?

[footey]

Just a couple of months ago I recall some scouts  calling Simmons the best player to come out of the draft since LBJ. Now he is a tier 2?  Has his stock dropped that much?