Who is our best player?

[Somebody]

Boston needs Tatum.  Boston doesn't need Brown.

I’m pretty sure we need both.

Except Boston is actually better with Brown on the bench and has been for the last 3 years.  That was the context of that quote you pulled out, without actually commenting about it.  Brown's value to winning is basically non-existent.  He has great stats, but he doesn't impact the scoreboard and never has, which is what matters at the end of the day.

Sure wish you could've bought into this type of argument in our Moses/Kareem debates where +/- metrics far better than raw on/off were used .

As for Brown, adjusted +/- metrics (eg. RPM, RAPTOR, multiyear RAPM) that paint a far better picture of a player's situational value than raw on/off suggest that he's a small positive on both ends of the court - in line with a fringe All-Star when you consider that these stats generally underrate his ability to guard a variety of wings or even guards in the playoffs (for example, RAPTOR thought that he was a neutral defender in the RS last season, but they rated him as a top wing defender in the playoffs). The big thing about Jaylen this season is whether his qualitative (eg. shooting, passing, dribbling, etc) and quantitative (in terms of the box score) improvements can actually drive team success like a borderline All-NBA guy - we still don't have adjusted +/- data yet, those take 20+ games before they are released, and raw on/off in a 7 game sample size might not even pin the directionality of a player's situational value correctly (you need a 20ish game sample size to even start getting a reliable-ish signal).

They don't have on/off differential available back when Moses and Kareem played, but I suspect that Moses had a larger one because he was much more important to his team's offense than Kareem was in the the late 70's and early 80's and that affects the scoreboard a great deal. 

Raptor often has some pretty ridiculous results, but that said their on/off stats show exactly what I said, that Boston is better when Brown is on the bench then when he is in the game, while Tatum is by far the most important player on the team and that Boston falls apart when Tatum isn't in the game.  Last year, Tatum's on/off Raptor was +7.1.  Hayward was next on the team at 3.9.  Brown was -0.8, only Semi was worse of the 10 Celtics that logged enough minutes to be tracked. 

And to be clear, I'm not suggesting that if Boston just removed Brown they would be better, but I don't think the loss of Brown would be felt nearly as much as this board.  And even last year, Brown missed 15 games, the Celtics had the exact same win percentage in those 15 games as they did over the season (66.6%).  Tatum missed 6 games, Boston was 2-4 (33.3%) without him and 46-20 (69.6%) with him.   And this wasn't just last year either.  In 2019, Brown missed 8 games, Boston went 8-0.  They went 8-4 without Brown in 18 (less than a percent worse).  The simple reality is, for as good as Brown is, the team just doesn't miss him when he isn't there.

There are so many issues and problems with APM analysis that it isn't even worth getting into it here.   Suffice to say that the error bars on these sorts of analytical methods tend to make them worthless even if they are sometimes wrapped broadly, like giant cushions around an actual valid conclusion.

IF there is any validity to the contention that the presence/absence of Brown has been of lesser impact then you can probably find the actual reason for that in utilization and touches.

A player not being utilized on offense is going to have a lesser impact than a player getting lots of usage.   That's just fundamental.

Jaylen Brown has historically been somewhat scarcely utilized.  This year so far represents a notable jump from prior seasons:

Code: [Select]

Touches/gm
Player  2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21
Jaylen    21.9    38.9    31.8    49.0    59.1
Jayson            42.7    45.3    68.1    74.4

Now, starting in the Spring of the 2017-18 season, Jaylen's scoring efficiency started to increase and it really kicked up starting in late November of 2018.  But his touches went down because of his ice-cold start to the 2018-19 season.  The overall impact of his offense was still muted.  Even during some of his good playoff runs (2018, this last year), where Jaylen got more shots (higher USG), his total touches were still relatively modest.

One good sign though, is that during stretches where his USG was higher, Jaylen's scoring efficiency (TS) did not drop.  He was always efficient regardless of higher load.

This season (so far), Jaylen's touches and USG are both up significantly over prior seasons.  And his efficiency is (so far) definitely holding up just fine.   And you can already see the advanced stat results of the higher utilization in things like his Win Share rate, which is over .200/48.

If these trends continue, I suspect that Jaylen's value over replacement will be a quite a bit larger this year than in prior years, which would render your analysis moot.

TP for the analysis.

[mmmmm]

Jayson put in his case pretty strongly last night.

Personally, I love how they are going back & forth with 'big games' and see them as very complementary.

Reminds me of how Bird & McHale would follow each other's big games.

Aside - A key factor under the radar in each of the 'big games' for both Jaylen & Jayson has been when we have backed away from the 2-big lineups.   Jayson's game really 'took off' last night after Brad put Semi in at the "4" for Theis, which dramatically increased the spacing.   We never went back to the 2-bigs in the rest of the game.   

Similarly, Jaylen's huge game against MEM also came with Tristan having a rest day.  We started with just 1-big (Theis) and never had 2-bigs on the floor until late in the game, with Robert & Grant (who is, like Semi, more of a 'swing').

[jambr380]

Jayson put in his case pretty strongly last night.

Personally, I love how they are going back & forth with 'big games' and see them as very complementary.

Reminds me of how Bird & McHale would follow each other's big games.

Aside - A key factor under the radar in each of the 'big games' for both Jaylen & Jayson has been when we have backed away from the 2-big lineups.   Jayson's game really 'took off' last night after Brad put Semi in at the "4" for Theis, which dramatically increased the spacing.   We never went back to the 2-bigs in the rest of the game.   

Similarly, Jaylen's huge game against MEM also came with Tristan having a rest day.  We started with just 1-big (Theis) and never had 2-bigs on the floor until late in the game, with Robert & Grant (who is, like Semi, more of a 'swing').

I said it before (somewhat jokingly), but I'd be for resting one of our three Centers every 3rd game, so that we only have two of them getting minutes each game. With the condensed season, it would certainly help keep them fresh, but it would also let whatever two of them are playing that night get into more of a groove. Of course if one of them is really injured, then that schedule goes out the window.

I know, it seems far-fetched as I look back on that paragraph, but I do think it could be sold a positive rather than any of them feeling slighted because they aren't playing enough. Honestly, they are all at least borderline starters.

[Phantom255x]

The disrespect to Payton Pritchard

 

[vjcsmoke]

Jayson and Jaylen both averaging 26 ppg.  It's early but that's Insane!  Why can't we be happy with having them both go off?

To me the differences are subtle but they are both good in their own ways.

Brown is more athletic and quick.  But he has also developed a really good midrange game now, using turnarounds off the space he creates with his quickness.

Tatum has more length and just looks like a smoother shooter, higher scoring upside.  He looks like a more natural shooter and he is stone cold killer in clutch shooting situations.

Both are very good defenders who give top effort on both ends.

Both are getting the job done and doing it well!

I voted Tatum but I'm glad that we have both of the Dynamic Duo in green!

[nickagneta]

Maybe Jaylen, instead of being Robin to Jayson's Batman, is Batman to Jayson's Batman.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

The disrespect to Payton Pritchard

 

Lol. Thanks for this.

[Donoghus]

Is this good?

ESPN Stats & Info
@ESPNStatsInfo
Jaylen Brown & Jayson Tatum’s 425 combined points this season are the most by a duo through 8 games, both under age 25, since Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook for the 2010-11 Thunder (425 also).

The record mark of 456 was set by Kareem Abdul-Jabbar & Bob Dandridge in 1970-71.

[RJ87]

Is this good?

ESPN Stats & Info
@ESPNStatsInfo
Jaylen Brown & Jayson Tatum’s 425 combined points this season are the most by a duo through 8 games, both under age 25, since Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook for the 2010-11 Thunder (425 also).

The record mark of 456 was set by Kareem Abdul-Jabbar & Bob Dandridge in 1970-71.

That Thunder team won 55 games went to the Conference finals. I'll take it. If only we had a similar supporting cast....

[mmmmm]

Jayson put in his case pretty strongly last night.

Personally, I love how they are going back & forth with 'big games' and see them as very complementary.

Reminds me of how Bird & McHale would follow each other's big games.

Aside - A key factor under the radar in each of the 'big games' for both Jaylen & Jayson has been when we have backed away from the 2-big lineups.   Jayson's game really 'took off' last night after Brad put Semi in at the "4" for Theis, which dramatically increased the spacing.   We never went back to the 2-bigs in the rest of the game.   

Similarly, Jaylen's huge game against MEM also came with Tristan having a rest day.  We started with just 1-big (Theis) and never had 2-bigs on the floor until late in the game, with Robert & Grant (who is, like Semi, more of a 'swing').

I said it before (somewhat jokingly), but I'd be for resting one of our three Centers every 3rd game, so that we only have two of them getting minutes each game. With the condensed season, it would certainly help keep them fresh, but it would also let whatever two of them are playing that night get into more of a groove. Of course if one of them is really injured, then that schedule goes out the window.

I know, it seems far-fetched as I look back on that paragraph, but I do think it could be sold a positive rather than any of them feeling slighted because they aren't playing enough. Honestly, they are all at least borderline starters.

I like it.   Maybe in the occasional game you play all three, based on match-up needs but overall I like your idea.

[gouki88]

Maybe Jaylen, instead of being Robin to Jayson's Batman, is Batman to Jayson's Batman.

One can be Batman one can be Superman?

[SHAQATTACK]

i like Paytons and Marcus basketball IQ.  ....one offensive the latter defensive .

[tstorey_97]

It tells you that it is about the team and how they play together. Their stats just put it all into a "numbers vacuum".

This discussion and their 425 points in the first 8 games is because Walker is out.

If Kemba returns and plays starter's minutes the Tatum and Brown we're watching now will be different from a production standpoint.

From his rookie season here Brown has moved from "the corner" to the middle of the action as indicated by his "touches" stats and everything else.

Meanwhile, he has a way to go, but Tatum has improved his ability to pass to his mates.

These guys might end up as the "top duo" in the NBA at this rate and, as time passes, more top players will want to come to Boston and play with the "J's".

Really, since signing Tatum we have all dreamed of this day. Just watch Nurse on the sideline killing himself as Tatum and Brown alternate with deadly shots from everywhere on the court against the Raptors.

[Ogaju]

PMP

[wdleehi]

Tatum is the better player.


Brown has had a better start to the season.   Even if he keeps this up for the whole season (would not be surprise to see a small drop to just all-star level) I think once Tatum gets going, he will show he is at the near MVP level.


As for Brown, I think he still needs one more playmaker out there with him to be at his best.  He doesn't have Tatums offensive creation skills yet (but boy, what a jump in that category he has taken this season)  I think Walkers return will help Brown out much more then Tatum when working with the bench.