Do the Celtics Have the Right Stuff (to win a title)

[Vermont Green]

Title teams tend to be defined by their best player.  Teams win titles when their best player plays the best in the finals.  Teams also need talented and complementary supporting players, in particular, usually a very good "Robin".  I went back and looked at the recent finals MVP (see below).  Lot of all time greats on that list.  Iguodala probably the only exception.

There is a lot of talk that Tatum specifically and the team in general do not have the competitiveness or toughness or whatever, to win a title; usually after a bad loss.  Tatum is an easy mark because he hasn't won a title yet.  But until last season, you heard the same narrative about Jokic and DEN as a team.  "Good regular season team, can't win in the playoffs".  Things like that.  Again, an easy mark because until last season, DEN had not won much in the playoffs.  Turned out, all they needed was their "Robin" (Jamaal Murray) to stay healthy.

BOS has had the same Batman (Tatum) and Robin (Brown) for several seasons.  In the last four seasons, they have made it to the NBA Finals once and the EC Finals twice.  That isn't too shabby, but you can look at this two ways.  The positive is they are a perennial playoff team with lots of playoff success, the negative is that they have had several chances and keep coming up short.

The Celtics still have their Batman and their Robin and this season have the best supporting cast they have ever had.  Porzingis and Holiday have been added this season and White a couple of seasons ago.  Horford is hanging in defying father time.  But I feel other teams continue to get better too.

So does this team have the "stuff" to win a title?

2022-23: Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets
2021-22: Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors
2020-21: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks
2019-20: LeBron James, Los Angeles Lakers
2018-19: Kawhi Leonard, Toronto Raptors
2017-18: Kevin Durant, Golden State Warriors
2016-17: Kevin Durant, Golden State Warriors
2015-16: LeBron James, Cleveland Cavaliers
2014-15: Andre Iguodala, Golden State Warriors
2013-14: Kawhi Leonard, San Antonio Spurs
2012-13: LeBron James, Miami Heat
2011-12: LeBron James, Miami Heat
2010-11: Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas Mavericks
2009-10: Kobe Bryant, Los Angeles Lakers
2008-09: Kobe Bryant, Los Angeles Lakers
2007-08: Paul Pierce, Boston Celtics

[scaryjerry]

They’re very good but at this point until they prove otherwise, no.

[Vermont Green]

They’re very good but at this point until they prove otherwise, no.

Were you saying the same thing about Denver a year ago?

[Surferdad]

But I feel other teams continue to get better too.

I think about this constantly. This season for example, look at Indy, Orlando, NYK, Minny, LAC to name a few. Celtics need to go "all-in" this season (looking at you, Wyc) because they face huge salary challenges in the off-season. Jrue Holiday has sacrificed touches (and thus scoring) but wants to get his last contract. D-White needs to get paid. Lose either of those guys and the team is not as good.

[Who]

I see this Celtics team more like the 2004 Pistons than the typical superstar model. I don't think they need Tatum to be an MVP quality guy to win a title. They have enough talent around him to win without him reaching that level.

[Vermont Green]

I see this Celtics team more like the 2004 Pistons than the typical superstar model. I don't think they need Tatum to be an MVP quality guy to win a title. They have enough talent around him to win without him reaching that level.

If I had continued the Finals MVP list, I would have gotten to 2003-04 when Chauncey Billups was the Finals MVP.  I feel Tatum is better than Billups for sure.  That tends to be the exception, not the rule though.  I agree that Tatum does not need to be the best player in the league, but he probably does need to play at least as a top 5, maybe top 3.

[liam]

We shall see. This is the best chance they've had in the Tatum era. They still have work to do but there are games to play.

[Phantom255x]

The reality is, this team they have constructed right now is the best they'll ever get. Idk how realistically they can get even better than what they have. This is their best chance to win it all. It's certainly not their only chance since Tatum is only 25 and Brown 27, but it won't be as easy.

I still maintain that Porzingis is our most important and impactful player to win a title because of the skillset and mismatches he provides, and White is also vital. But ultimately, it'll be on Tatum and Brown. Frankly, my worry is that a smart team like Miami or even Philly (with Nick Nurse) will again try to exploit Jaylen's issues (dribbling, turnovers, etc.). Jaylen's looked better overall but again, it'll come down to playoffs. Tatum also can't be taking nights off as often in the playoffs like he did last year. He had a few big games but he also had games where he'd only have like 5 points one half, then maybe do some good in the 2nd half but it'd be too late and we'd lose. Can't have that. Even if he's not shooting well he needs to find other avenues to contribute

[Moranis]

They’re very good but at this point until they prove otherwise, no.

Were you saying the same thing about Denver a year ago?

I think very few people questioned whether Jokic was good enough, he was after all a 2 time defending MVP, but yes plenty of people (including me) needed to see him do it in the playoffs to validate the talent.  That said, Jokic is/was a completely different class of player than Tatum is. 

[Moranis]

I know everyone seems to discount what I've been saying for years regarding top end talent (in large part because it is me saying it), but if you look at every champion since the 70's every single 1, except the 04 Pistons, has either a clear cut top 30 player all time and/or a clear cut top 5 player in the league as their best player (and all but a few that guy is both).  EVERY SINGLE ONE (except that 04 Pistons team).  So when I say you need a truly special player to win, it is because that is historically what it takes. 

Thus far, Tatum has not reached that level and that is why Boston hasn't won a title and likely won't, unless Tatum reaches that level.  That is why for years I've advocated making trades that maximize Tatum (or a few years back was trying get a player better than him), which is also why I liked both the major moves this summer ad both KP and Jrue are good compliments next to Tatum.

Also, historically very few teams have had the level of success the Celtics have without a top 5 player (and early on without a top 10 player), so when I say things like Boston has overachieved its talent, that is what I mean.  Really the early 00 Pistons and the Reggie Pacers are the only teams that compare historically over a 5+ year period. Obviously thr Pistons broke through fornthe title exception and the Pacers never did.

Tatum hasn't played up to the level he can yet this year and Boston is the best team, so that is a good sign. If Tatum gets on a roll in the playoffs, Boston will have it best shot at a title since 2010 and may even be favored to do so (Denver worries me, but everyone else does not).

[footey]

I know everyone seems to discount what I've been saying for years regarding top end talent (in large part because it is me saying it), but if you look at every champion since the 70's every single 1, except the 04 Pistons, has either a clear cut top 30 player all time and/or a clear cut top 5 player in the league as their best player (and all but a few that guy is both).  EVERY SINGLE ONE (except that 04 Pistons team).  So when I say you need a truly special player to win, it is because that is historically what it takes. 

Thus far, Tatum has not reached that level and that is why Boston hasn't won a title and likely won't, unless Tatum reaches that level.  That is why for years I've advocated making trades that maximize Tatum (or a few years back was trying get a player better than him), which is also why I liked both the major moves this summer ad both KP and Jrue are good compliments next to Tatum.

Also, historically very few teams have had the level of success the Celtics have without a top 5 player (and early on without a top 10 player), so when I say things like Boston has overachieved its talent, that is what I mean.  Really the early 00 Pistons and the Reggie Pacers are the only teams that compare historically over a 5+ year period. Obviously thr Pistons broke through fornthe title exception and the Pacers never did.

Tatum hasn't played up to the level he can yet this year and Boston is the best team, so that is a good sign. If Tatum gets on a roll in the playoffs, Boston will have it best shot at a title since 2010 and may even be favored to do so (Denver worries me, but everyone else does not).

Luka is likely a consensus top 5 player.  You like Dallas' chances better than Boston's?

Embiid is also a top 5 player and maybe top 30 all time.  Do you think Philly is more likely to win the championship??

[footey]

I think any one of 6-8 teams are capable of winning it all this year, that have the right stuff.  The days of dominant teams are over for now.  The 3 point shooting emphasis and pre-requisite increases the uncertainty/risk involved in winning the NBA championship.

Boston
Denver
OKC
MN
NY
Clips
MIL
Philly

all seem to have a reasonable shot of winning it all this year.  Boston currently has played the most consistently, but it would be arrogant to suggest they are in some separate class.  They are capable of  beating all the above teams, of course, and just as capable of losing to any of them, in 7 game play-off.

[Neurotic Guy]

I think any one of 6-8 teams are capable of winning it all this year, that have the right stuff.  The days of dominant teams are over for now.  The 3 point shooting emphasis and pre-requisite increases the uncertainty/risk involved in winning the NBA championship.

Boston
Denver
OKC
MN
NY
Clips
MIL
Philly

all seem to have a reasonable shot of winning it all this year.  Boston currently has played the most consistently, but it would be arrogant to suggest they are in some separate class.  They are capable of  beating all the above teams, of course, and just as capable of losing to any of them, in 7 game play-off.

This is correct imo.  Boston doesn’t have a better than 50% chance to win, but they have as good of (or better) chance than the other contenders.  Thats why it’s no great take to predict the Cs won’t win a championship this year.  They probably won’t.   But the surely can.  I think they look pretty solid in a 7-game series with any of the contenders.  But any could beat the Cs as well. Reluctantly I do agree with the Joe bashers that he doesn’t inspire confidence that he can be the X-factor that could give the Cs an edge in a close series.  It’s too bad - I wish they’d made a coaching move after their exit last year. 

The unfortunate reality of is that I think we tip ‘officially’ into ‘it’s taking longer than expected’ territory if they don’t bring it home this season.  I think a win this year is still in line with an expected trajectory for the Jays.  So I do think it’s a huge year especially given the quality of the roster. 

Moranis is correct about the top 5 player v. a top 30 ensemble being the ticket to winning. But I see JT closer to top 5 level than Isaiah/Dumars (imo Isaiah was top 10, not 5) in 1990 or Billups, Rip, Wallace were in 2004.  Some believe JT is top 5, others think he’s on the cusp.  Regardless, C’s roster from 2-6 is pretty impressive.  They have the talent to get it done, probably will fall short given having to go through teams that are close in talent.

Knicks, btw, are looking like they might belong in the top tier. I fear the philosophy of the three will be a loser when they’re in the heat of an intense series.  If they don’t win it all Joe should be gone.

[ozgod]

I feel we are definitely among the teams that have the right stuff. The question is will they have the right mindset and will they have some luck (health, hitting good form at the right time).

[Donoghus]

Celtics are winning the title in June. 

This is the year.  There is stumbles along the way (like the other night) but, barring injuries, this team is winning the title.

With Mo that Denver is the only team that concerns me but I think Celts beat them in a series.