Two-Year Plan: AKA How to Win the NBA Championship in 2021 or 2022

[Evantime34]

Op is pretty reasonable a couple differences/comments:

1. Semi will play a lot more this year than you seem to expect.
2. I expect Beal to become available this year and I think the Celtics will be at the front of the line to get him.
3. Jaylen is an interesting case this year. With the other players at the top of his draft getting huge extensions and a poor free agent class next year he's going to get paid. I'm not sure what type of season he would have to have with this team to be worthy of a max contact. Trading him before he gets expensive might be the play.
4. I'm way more optimistic on Gordon. I think you will see an efficient 20 a game. If this happens I would look to move him at the deadline to get a young big. I think he will play so well this year that he opts out.

[tazzmaniac]

So your plan is for Brown and/or Tatum to become all stars or sign one or more all stars. I can't believe nobody has thought of this before!

There’s no need to be rude. The devil is in the details. Others may have different ideas on dealing with the next two years. Let’s hear your ideas?

It’s true, why start a new thread with 0 new insight?

Alright lets keep it civil.

There is insight provided each year involving the different players and options. This is a solid post by the OP.

So you think we're going to get 1-2 unprotected 1sts each for Jaylen and Jayson when they are being traded because they aren't stars?  So you think we're going to get a protected 1st by signing and trading Morris?

Do think it’s a possibility to get from a 2019-2020 lottery team one unprotected 2021 or 2022 pick for Brown and one unprotected 2022 or 2023 pick for Tatum. Assuming they are not all-stars but good starters who may yet develop into fringe all-stars (not what we want). I could see playoff teams making a run in 2019-2020 giving up two unprotected picks where that team is confident they’ll be in the playoffs those two years (e.g., Brown to the Jazz, who deal their 2020 pick that is definitely non-lottery and their 2022 unprotected first).

In terms of Morris, I can see someone giving a protected first somewhere in 2022-2024 for him. A playoff team making a run. If not, let him walk.

You're dreaming.  Starters don't get you unprotected picks.  You can look at NBA trade history and see that. 

[GreenlyGreeny]

Op is pretty reasonable a couple differences/comments:

1. Semi will play a lot more this year than you seem to expect.

Hopefully!

2. I expect Beal to become available this year and I think the Celtics will be at the front of the line to get him.

I’m just not sure he moves the needle enough to consider giving up Smart (I don’t know how you make it work without including Smart). But I would do this deal if Brown does not become an all-star, which would give us flexibility at the deadline in 2021 (if we’re not
title contenders at the deadline with Kemba, Tatum and beal, and Tatum is not an all-star, move Beal and Tatum together for picks):

http://tradenba.com/trades/SkE6JVngS

3. Jaylen is an interesting case this year. With the other players at the top of his draft getting huge extensions and a poor free agent class next year he's going to get paid. I'm not sure what type of season he would have to have with this team to be worthy of a max contact. Trading him before he gets expensive might be the play.

Extremely well put and could not agree more. Jaylen is almost surely getting a max next offseason given its weakness. I do not want to give him a max unless he’s an all-star this year. It’s too risky to go all-in on JB, almost surely destroying our potential to be free agent players in 2021, if he’s not an all-star this season.

4. I'm way more optimistic on Gordon. I think you will see an efficient 20 a game. If this happens I would look to move him at the deadline to get a young big. I think he will play so well this year that he opts out.

Wow. That would be amazing. If he returns to form, I’d just keep him and hope he gives us a discount in 2020 or 2021 so he can win that championship with Stevens.

[GreenlyGreeny]

So your plan is for Brown and/or Tatum to become all stars or sign one or more all stars. I can't believe nobody has thought of this before!

There’s no need to be rude. The devil is in the details. Others may have different ideas on dealing with the next two years. Let’s hear your ideas?

It’s true, why start a new thread with 0 new insight?

Alright lets keep it civil.

There is insight provided each year involving the different players and options. This is a solid post by the OP.

So you think we're going to get 1-2 unprotected 1sts each for Jaylen and Jayson when they are being traded because they aren't stars?  So you think we're going to get a protected 1st by signing and trading Morris?

Do think it’s a possibility to get from a 2019-2020 lottery team one unprotected 2021 or 2022 pick for Brown and one unprotected 2022 or 2023 pick for Tatum. Assuming they are not all-stars but good starters who may yet develop into fringe all-stars (not what we want). I could see playoff teams making a run in 2019-2020 giving up two unprotected picks where that team is confident they’ll be in the playoffs those two years (e.g., Brown to the Jazz, who deal their 2020 pick that is definitely non-lottery and their 2022 unprotected first).

In terms of Morris, I can see someone giving a protected first somewhere in 2022-2024 for him. A playoff team making a run. If not, let him walk.

You're dreaming.  Starters don't get you unprotected picks.  You can look at NBA trade history and see that.

Again, starters who are solid and may develop into fringe all-stars. If we need to move them to lottery teams for lottery-protected picks, I’m fine with that too. What I’m not fine with is dreaming about them being all-NBA after failing to be an all-star for four years. If they don’t do it within four years, they’ll never be superstars to deliver a championship.

[Stig]

I don’t think there is anything we can do to make us a champion favourite in 2021 season, we are still paying for the missteps in the last year. Our only hope is Brown and Tatum To reach all star or even all nba level, I’m not optimistic, but there are reasons to be.

Otherwise we’ll be paying sub-all star player max salary, or see their trade value decrease to a mid to late first rounder. I don’t know about Hayward, if he fully recovers, he’ll want another max contract, which will be his last.

A lot falls on Kemba, whether he can lead this team and at the same time make J&J shine.

[obnoxiousmime]

This is a great plan for NBA 2K20 franchise mode! Now, how about real life? Just kidding...

Seriously, trading Brown and Tatum for picks unless you already have a replacement doesn't make sense. Also, Brown and Tatum were 3rd overall picks. It's difficult to get an unprotecteed pick unless it's from a good team. Even from a bad team, where the pick will fall is extremely unpredictable and it's more likely that it will not be in the top 3. That means you'd be trading them at a loss. Also, we just went through a veteran exodus because the team wasn't ready to win. Developing Tatum or Brown, then "resetting" by dealing them for picks just pushed the timetable even further back. I don't think Kemba signed here so that we could trade for more picks and young players who will be good in 2026. If Brown or Tatum are dealt, it will be for an older (but not too old) star. Think Beal, Giannis, Sabonis, those types.

Whether or not either (or anyone for that matter) are traded is more dependent on who becomes available. If no star is available, Ainge will hold onto Brown and Tatum through RFA and deal them after. Remember that to trade for stars, you usually need contracts to match. You could argue that Tatum or Brown on their next deals are actually easier to deal in that respect. Otherwise, it's most likely Smart and some combination of a few big men we just signed would need to be traded as well.

You seem awfully pessimistic about Hayward. His injury takes more than one season to recover from. It's not crazy to expect him to have a bounceback year, in which case he will definitely opt out and still be young to sign at value, not at discount. Don't forget next year's FA class is very shallow and if he shows anything like his previous form, there definitely will be teams offering max money.

They will likely have Kemba on a load management plan regardless, because he's a smaller PG. Urgency to make a move in the next 2 seasons with him seems right to me, I don't know about 4 seasons. 4 seasons and he's already 33. PGs who are smaller and rely on speed do not age so well. Even if Tatum, Brown, and Hayward all improve I think that this team is still at least a trade away. If this trade doesn't happen in say, 2 years, Kemba will probably get antsy.

[cltc5]

I think we have a legit shot at a title within these two years.  With all the injuries I think our biggest hurdle is mil/philly but they’ve both lost shooting.  Toronto with Kawai I think we can out defend.  And barring ref bias which might be our biggest hurdle, we could best AD/lebron and his band of misfits.  But it’s gotta be in this two years

[GreenlyGreeny]

Mulling this over, the current cap structure is going to make big 3s about as rare as big 4s (Durant/GS) used to be. If Jaylen is not an all-star by this February and we can flip him for unprotected picks way down the road, like 2024 and 2026, we can simply do one-year dealsto fill out the roster in 2020. We could then head into the golden free agency of 2021 with the following:

Kemba
Smart
Langford
R. Williams
G. Williams
Likely the Memphis pick, who is hopefully a top front-court prospect
Possibly Boston 20 and/or Milwaukee 20 picks (ideally we flipped them for a lottery protected pick in 2021 that turns into a top 5 protected in 2022 and becomes unprotected in 2023)

If we waive the rights to every free agent of ours except Tatum and Edwards (if he pans out), we should have enough space for a max contract that we execute and immediately thereafter max-out Tatum, giving us a rare Big 3 in 2021.

I suspect Tatum is going to be a two-time all-star by that time. Coupled with unselfish stardom from Walker, with cap space for a max, we should be front-runners for any of the following if they want to “pull a Kemba” and try to win a title with one of the big franchises:

Giannis
Gobert
Oladipo

Add one of the three to all-stars Kemba and Tatum, and we’re probably the favorite in 2021-2022, which is less than 3 years from now. Furthermore, we would be favorites through 2025, possibly beyond, particularly if those picks we got for Jaylen panned out and/or Memphis and/or Langford and/or G. Williams.

The future is bright, but the key will be Jaylen. I strongly advocate for trading if he’s not an all-star this season. Otherwise, we may end up on the treadmill with no cap space for the 2021 sweepstakes...

[slamtheking]

Mulling this over, the current cap structure is going to make big 3s about as rare as big 4s (Durant/GS) used to be. If Jaylen is not an all-star by this February and we can flip him for unprotected picks way down the road, like 2024 and 2026, we can simply do one-year dealsto fill out the roster in 2020. We could then head into the golden free agency of 2021 with the following:

This is just hideous.  no sense whatsoever.

your bar for Brown is All-star in his 4th year.  are you setting the same bar for every player we draft?  if not, why?  makes no sense but what's your reasoning for using that as the standard for keeping or dealing a player?  Smart didn't and he's going into year 6.  Walker didn't either but look at the max deal we just gave him.   is your plan to ship out Tatum if he doesn't make it to the all-star team the following season since that would be his 4th year?    All-star voting's a popularity contest so yes, by all means, let's use that as the barometer for determining if a player is any good.

then, throwing the idea out there that a non-all-star player, who you've apparently given up on developing further, is worth not just 1 but 2 unprotected first round picks.  delusional

not only that, you plan to have a lot of cap space in 2021 for FAs that have watched you treat your roster like crap and will very likely prefer to play somewhere that treats its players with some respect and consideration.  you think a roster of Kemba, this year's rookies and Timelord and another young pick is going to be a draw for a big FA --> one that's very likely to be looking for a winning situation?  more delusions. 

I passed on this thread the first time it came around because it was just foolish.  this time around it's even worse

[tazzmaniac]

Mulling this over, the current cap structure is going to make big 3s about as rare as big 4s (Durant/GS) used to be. If Jaylen is not an all-star by this February and we can flip him for unprotected picks way down the road, like 2024 and 2026, we can simply do one-year dealsto fill out the roster in 2020. We could then head into the golden free agency of 2021 with the following:

This is just hideous.  no sense whatsoever.

your bar for Brown is All-star in his 4th year.  are you setting the same bar for every player we draft?  if not, why?  makes no sense but what's your reasoning for using that as the standard for keeping or dealing a player?  Smart didn't and he's going into year 6.  Walker didn't either but look at the max deal we just gave him.   is your plan to ship out Tatum if he doesn't make it to the all-star team the following season since that would be his 4th year?    All-star voting's a popularity contest so yes, by all means, let's use that as the barometer for determining if a player is any good.

then, throwing the idea out there that a non-all-star player, who you've apparently given up on developing further, is worth not just 1 but 2 unprotected first round picks.  delusional

not only that, you plan to have a lot of cap space in 2021 for FAs that have watched you treat your roster like crap and will very likely prefer to play somewhere that treats its players with some respect and consideration.  you think a roster of Kemba, this year's rookies and Timelord and another young pick is going to be a draw for a big FA --> one that's very likely to be looking for a winning situation?  more delusions. 

I passed on this thread the first time it came around because it was just foolish.  this time around it's even worse

I agree that it is not well thought out and all-star is a ridiculous bar for determining whether to keep a player.  However the basic question of what to do with Jaylen is valid. 
Do you offer him a contract extension this offseason and if so for how much?  What are you going to do next offseason if he's offered a 3+1 Max contract? 

[GreenlyGreeny]

Mulling this over, the current cap structure is going to make big 3s about as rare as big 4s (Durant/GS) used to be. If Jaylen is not an all-star by this February and we can flip him for unprotected picks way down the road, like 2024 and 2026, we can simply do one-year dealsto fill out the roster in 2020. We could then head into the golden free agency of 2021 with the following:

This is just hideous.  no sense whatsoever.

your bar for Brown is All-star in his 4th year.  are you setting the same bar for every player we draft?  if not, why?

2020 free agency is W-E-A-K and Brown is definitely getting a max offer. I tend to prefer avoiding giving max contracts to players who are just starters, not all-stars, particularly after seeing how hampered Hayward’s contract has made us without the all-star output we expected. It’s too risky to give Brown max money unless he proves he’s an all-star now.

makes no sense but what's your reasoning for using that as the standard for keeping or dealing a player?  Smart didn't and he's going into year 6.

Being paid starter money, not max money.

Walker didn't either but look at the max deal we just gave him.

Walker is All-NBA right now, and could have been an all-star in his fourth season on the right team.

is your plan to ship out Tatum if he doesn't make it to the all-star team the following season since that would be his 4th year?

Depends on the offer. It’s less risky to hold onto Tatum, sign a big free agent in 2021 and then match Tatum’s best offer. It’s a timing issue with Jaylen compared to Jayson, particularly since the 2021 free agency is loaded whereas 2020 is perhaps the weakest free agency ever unless AD unexpectedly leaves the Lakers.

All-star voting's a popularity contest so yes, by all means, let's use that as the barometer for determining if a playe
then, throwing the idea out there that a non-all-star player, who you've apparently given up on developing further, is worth not just 1 but 2 unprotected first round picks.  delusional

There will be teams willing to give up 2024 and 2026 picks for Jaylen’s potential, especially in small markets that need potential stardom since they’ll never be free agent players. I’d prefer to let them pay max money to Jaylen, to bear that risk, and we get a piece of their future in return. It beats watching Jaylen walk for nothing, or paying him max money and banking the entire future of the franchise on him without an all-star appearance to show for it.

not only that, you plan to have a lot of cap space in 2021 for FAs that have watched you treat your roster like crap and will very likely prefer to play somewhere that treats its players with some respect and consideration.

We will have let our last two of three major free agents play out their
contract, with Kemba still on contract, so why would they not
come to Boston like Kemba did this month? I guarantee they’re not coming to Boston if we’re giving max money to Kemba and Brown because the cap simply won’t allow it...

you think a roster of Kemba, this year's rookies and Timelord and another young pick is going to be a draw for a big FA --> one that's very likely to be looking for a winning situation?  more delusions.

If Kemba AND Tatum are all-stars, which is my bet at this point learning more about Kemba and envisioning him help Tatum return to 2017-2018, yes, I do think we will be attractive as one of 1-3 places that can build a big 3. The new cap structure makes it impossible to build a big 3 with depth unless one of your three hit it big in their first four years with good drafting to round out your depth. We are one of the few teams that could have that opportunity at a Big 3 in 2021 so long as we do not blow it with Jaylen by giving him max money and he never becomes an all-star.

I passed on this thread the first time it came around because it was just foolish.  this time around it's even worse

I think it’s foolish to throw max money at Brown if he’s not an all-star. All of our eggs in the Jaylen basket? No way unless he finally proves he’s an all-star this season.

[blink]

Mulling this over, the current cap structure is going to make big 3s about as rare as big 4s (Durant/GS) used to be. If Jaylen is not an all-star by this February and we can flip him for unprotected picks way down the road, like 2024 and 2026, we can simply do one-year dealsto fill out the roster in 2020. We could then head into the golden free agency of 2021 with the following:

This is just hideous.  no sense whatsoever.

your bar for Brown is All-star in his 4th year.  are you setting the same bar for every player we draft?  if not, why?  makes no sense but what's your reasoning for using that as the standard for keeping or dealing a player?  Smart didn't and he's going into year 6.  Walker didn't either but look at the max deal we just gave him.   is your plan to ship out Tatum if he doesn't make it to the all-star team the following season since that would be his 4th year?    All-star voting's a popularity contest so yes, by all means, let's use that as the barometer for determining if a player is any good.

then, throwing the idea out there that a non-all-star player, who you've apparently given up on developing further, is worth not just 1 but 2 unprotected first round picks.  delusional

not only that, you plan to have a lot of cap space in 2021 for FAs that have watched you treat your roster like crap and will very likely prefer to play somewhere that treats its players with some respect and consideration.  you think a roster of Kemba, this year's rookies and Timelord and another young pick is going to be a draw for a big FA --> one that's very likely to be looking for a winning situation?  more delusions. 

I passed on this thread the first time it came around because it was just foolish.  this time around it's even worse

TP.  I agree 100%.  Completely and arbitrarily random requirement to keep Brown.  Both Brown and Tatum could very well get better, be more productive and play outstanding basketball for us and still not make the all-start game in their 4th seasons.  Does that mean we automatically trade them?  It depends on WAY more than that one thing.  Thankfully DA and BS will probably use a more methodical approach to determining who we trade and when we trade them.

[jambr380]

Eh, I don't disagree with you guys, but I think you are getting thrown off track about the All-Star requirements by the OP. It would probably be a better thread if it were more focused, like:

What should we do with Brown at the deadline if we have not signed him to an extension and he isn't showing improvement?

Because that seems to be the main idea within all of these other mixed together ideas. If you look at it that way, it is a pretty good question. If we simply hold on to him, you are either left matching a max 3+1 - which you have to do - or let him walk for nothing in RFA. At that point, you hope for continued improvement - maybe by way of opportunity with Hayward opting out and moving on - and you either have your All-Star or you have a tradable asset.

Note: I am a huge Jaylen fan and would love nothing more than to see him continue his development through hard work and focus. There is no reason to believe he will plateau at such a young age and with such a strong work ethic.

 

[nickagneta]

The more I read, the more I got the feeling this is more about blowing it up than it is a plan to win a title in two years.

Correct me if I am wrong but the plan seems to be, Brown, Hayward and Tatum better be All-Stars next year and the year after making us a champion or they all get dealt at the next two trade deadlines for future picks as we turn the team over to our current collection of 1st and 2nd year players and Kemba.

That's not a plan for a championship. That's hoping for our current best case scenario happens and, if not, very hastily moving on from young talent and falling back into a tank job while keeping Kemba.

[GreenlyGreeny]

Hate to put it this way, but that’s what we’re looking at with Jaylen definitely getting a max contract in 2020 by virtue of the weak free agency, and Jayson likely getting a max in 2021. We need to hope and pray that at least one of the two becomes an all-star or we’re not winning a championship in the next half decade, and Brad is probably going to leave if he is looking at a maxed out Brown and Tatum heading into 2021 with no definitive certainty of either becoming an all-star anytime soon.