Author Topic: Some thoughts on where the league is going, and how the Celtics are positioned  (Read 650 times)

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Offline Walker Wiggle

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If you're a Celtics fan, it hurts right now. Your top two players may leave in free agency. In Kyrie's case, he's leaving some money on the table to do so. We've been on the receiving end with Horford and Hayward, which were new experiences for us. Now, to be on the other end, it stings.

The league is getting very volatile in terms of elite players leaving their teams, even when those teams seemingly do everything right and can pay them the most. Kawhi and AD both leaving their teams (in Kawhi's case, perhaps the best run franchise in the NBA) and giving up the "super max" are the most glaring examples. But now there are many more of them, including (it would seem) our own Kyrie Irving.

Some of this is because of the shifting culture of NBA players (who may be more interested in building a personal brand than they were in the past, for example). But I think it's also because of the current collective bargaining agreement. The CBA was designed to help teams retain their superstars, by allowing them to offer up to 5 year contracts instead of 4, as well as bigger annual salaries. It also introduced the "super max", such that a team that drafts an all-NBA player can offer him way more than anyone else.

Clearly, the new CBA isn't working in this regard. Part of the problem is that it doesn't really allow a team to extend its superstar players anymore (without that player giving up a ton of money), such that the teams must risk losing them in unrestricted free agency. Basically, right now teams have a really difficult time building more than a 3-year plan. Duplicating what the Spurs did during Tim Duncan's tenure there is now virtually impossible.

This post isn't about how the league should fix the problem. It's about what a team (most notably, the Celtics) can do given the current reality. And I think the solution is to do exactly what they seem to be doing: invest in the youth.

The short explanation of why I feel like this is: a team has ultimate control over a player in restricted free agency, coming off of his rookie deal. In Jason Tatum's case, for instance, the Celtics will have him at $7.8m this year and $9.9m the next. After that, they can match any offer from any team, and sign him to (if that's what it takes) a 4-year deal at 25% of the cap (and maybe 5-year/30% under certain circumstances). The simple point is: Tatum can't leave for at least 6 years.

This makes it really hard to trade guys on rookie deals for superstars in the middle of their second (or third) contracts that are set to become unrestricted. As Kyrie is (likely) about to teach us, players' preferences can change quickly. There is simply no certainty as to whether or not a guy you trade for is going to stay.

So, in other words:

- Keep Tatum and Brown.
- If you're going to give up assets in a trade, prioritize guys on rookie deals.
- Try and keep the flexibility to sign (or sign and trade for) superstars in free agency, that is, AT THE BEGINNING of 4-5 year deals.
- Stay away from the likes of Bradley Beal, eg guys in the middle of contracts who will soon become UFAs.
- Round out your roster with reasonable veterans (the likes of Marcus Morris, Aaron Baynes, etc.).
- Try and have some extra picks on hand (hello, Memphis pick) to take shots and landing yet another young superstar you can control for 8-10 years, rather than 3-5.

This approach takes a lot of patience, and involves a lot of uncertainty (who knows what Tatum and Brown will be in their primes?). But given the way the league is going, it's the only way to build a long-term winner, other than rolling the dice and hoping the guy you're engaged to keeps his promise until the wedding.

Offline PhoSita

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I agree, broadly.

The Celts can't make NBA players as excited to spend time in Boston as they may be to spend time in LA or Miami.  That's never happening.


What they can do is make being a Celtic and playing for the Celtics organization, in front of Celtics fans, seem like a great experience.

They can show themselves to be one of the best run organizations in the league.  They can demonstrate that they have a solid, young foundation in place for the team, with a good coach, a system that players enjoy being a part of, with a fan base that is enthusiastic and supportive of the home team.  They can show that being on this team, spending time in this locker room, is not going to be a drag.


Many of those things were not on display this past season.  In fact, in many respects the Celtics showed that they were in the opposite category. 

I think it's going to take several years to fully rehab the team's image.  Trading IT was the right move but it's clear a lot of NBA players did not like the optics of that.


Hayward's injury was nobody's fault, but I think that the way he came back and was given a lot of minutes and a significant role before he was truly ready looked really bad because the guy giving him that role and those minutes also coached him in college.

Kyrie, right or wrong, is a highly regarded star player in this league.  That's one of the reasons the Celtics wanted to acquire him.  They hoped he would recruit other players to join the Celtics.  Instead, he went from publicly proclaiming his desire to stay in Boston to saying "I don't owe anybody *!@!"


I think we as Celtics fans recognize that Kyrie was one of the major reasons that things went sour, and it would be disingenuous, to say the least, for him to act like dysfunction in the Celtics is the reason he was so eager to leave.

Nonetheless, I think Kyrie "ghosting" the Celtics the way he has is going to resonate strongly in a negative way with a lot of NBA players, especially high profile ones.


Al Horford leaving compounds the problem.  I think Horford has a reputation around the league as being one of the best teammates you could possibly have, in addition to being a guy that any star would love having on their team because of how he plays defense, passes, and spaces the floor.  Al choosing to leave because the Celts won't agree to pay him as much as somebody else -- again, that just doesn't look good, even if it's the smart decision.


One of the major goals for the Celtics for the next few years, in addition to developing Tatum and Brown into stars, is going to have to be rehabilitating their image and the image of the players and Brad Stevens as a coach.  Right now I think many people look at the Celtics as a team that is probably not very enjoyable to be a part of, and Boston as a place where it is probably not very nice to play.
You’ll have to excuse my lengthiness—the reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
- Mark Twain

Offline wdleehi

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The money left on the table is weird issue, especially when you hear complaints about limits to what a player can earn.


For top players, the extra you make staying with a team is dwarfed by the amount they believe they can make off the court if the go to the major media markets. 

I do think they should change the rules about extending your own players.   Teams should be able to extend to equal what they can pay them if their own players became a FA.   A player traded must be with a team a full NBA season (training camp to start if the new year) to be eligible.