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Celtics Basketball => Celtics Talk => Topic started by: Big333223 on May 22, 2018, 11:59:20 AM

Title: Lowe and Simmons on Smart's Contract
Post by: Big333223 on May 22, 2018, 11:59:20 AM
Zach Lowe on the BS Podcast yesterday and they touched on Smart's contract situation. Simmons thinks 4 years, $40-44 mil is fair for Smart (I agree), Lowe thinks that Smart will reject that offer and take his qualifying offer to become an unrestricted free agent next year in a potentially more open free agent market.

Lowe also tries to come up with a number the Celtics won't pay for Smart and says, "14, 15, 16, I don't know..." So he's not quite sure what is too high for the Celtics but he starts thinking about the $14-16 mil a year range.

Also, fwiw, Simmons asks Lowe a couple of yes or no questions and when he asks "Is Kyrie Irving on the Celtics next year?" he says, "Yes," with complete confidence, no hesitation and there's no discussion about it at all.
Title: Re: Lowe and Simmons on Smart's Contract
Post by: PhoSita on May 22, 2018, 12:02:44 PM
I think it makes sense for the Celts and for Smart to do a one year deal.

They'll sort out what to do with Terry and Marcus after next season (when hopefully they're coming off a Finals run).


Look, Smart is a great player and he makes so many clutch plays.  He's basically the Celts' version of Iguodala.

That said, how much does it make sense to pay for the 6th best player on your team?

The Celts need to prioritize Kyrie, Brown, Hayward, Tatum, Horford.  Signing Smart should not jeopardize their ability to pay and keep all of those guys moving forward.

I suppose as long as Smart is a trade asset on his next deal it doesn't matter.  They can move him if/when Jaylen / Tatum need to get paid if necessary.
Title: Re: Lowe and Simmons on Smart's Contract
Post by: smokeablount on May 22, 2018, 12:17:14 PM
Smart has to realize he won’t find a better situation for his winning plays to have an impact. That said, I don’t expect him to take much less money to stay, if any.
Title: Re: Lowe and Simmons on Smart's Contract
Post by: chambers on May 22, 2018, 12:19:47 PM
I think we'll have to slightly overpay to keep him.

I just hope Wyc is cool with paying an enormous payroll tax.

Smart is crucial to our hopes against GSW. He's the Ginobli for our team. His defense and hustle is like Ginobli's offense and hustle.

It's so important.
I'd expect him to get 4 x 14 million at a minimum.
Title: Re: Lowe and Simmons on Smart's Contract
Post by: Moranis on May 22, 2018, 12:21:06 PM
I like Smart, but he shoots way too many 3's and he gets too emotional (some emotion is fine, but he goes way overboard).  Take the end of the game last night, C's had no real shot at winning, but there was Smart being super and overly aggressive with James.  I was really worried he was going to go to far, get suspended, and cost Boston any shot at winning the series.  I don't think he can tone it down, which is the real problem.  He reminds me a lot of Rondo.  Does a lot of the little things, but is just so immature on the court, and unlike Rondo, he doesn't know when to stop shooting. 
Title: Re: Lowe and Simmons on Smart's Contract
Post by: slamtheking on May 22, 2018, 12:25:39 PM
I think we'll have to slightly overpay to keep him.

I just hope Wyc is cool with paying an enormous payroll tax.

Smart is crucial to our hopes against GSW. He's the Ginobli for our team. His defense and hustle is like Ginobli's offense and hustle.

It's so important.
I'd expect him to get 4 x 14 million at a minimum.
the important question is --> who'd pay Smart that kind of money?  I don't see any team that would want to tie up that kind of money on a guy they can't count on for offensive production this offseason.  Can't see a developing team wanting him just yet since he's the kind of player you bring in when you're looking for that right piece to put you over the top.  by that same logic, I don't see any team looking for that extra piece with the cap room to add him.  Philly perhaps has the room but they need shooting to go with Simmons and Fultz as well as spreading the floor for Embiid to work. 

I really don't see anyone offering more than the MLE this year or even next (unless there's a huge jump in the salary cap due to an influx of new gambling revenue).
Title: Re: Lowe and Simmons on Smart's Contract
Post by: aefgogreen on May 22, 2018, 12:28:46 PM
11 or 12 mill a year sounds about right.  I wouldn't be surprised if he only a one-year deal although I don't think he helps his situation if he does.  I think teams are going to be reluctant to pay more.  There are already a ton of good point guards in the league and  a lot of former Celtics don't fair nearly as well on their new teams.
Title: Re: Lowe and Simmons on Smart's Contract
Post by: slamtheking on May 22, 2018, 12:29:09 PM
I like Smart, but he shoots way too many 3's and he gets too emotional (some emotion is fine, but he goes way overboard).  Take the end of the game last night, C's had no real shot at winning, but there was Smart being super and overly aggressive with James.  I was really worried he was going to go to far, get suspended, and cost Boston any shot at winning the series.  I don't think he can tone it down, which is the real problem.  He reminds me a lot of Rondo.  Does a lot of the little things, but is just so immature on the court, and unlike Rondo, he doesn't know when to stop shooting. 
hard to blame him at the end of the game with Lebron shoving him and giving elbows every time Smart covered him.  took a hand to the face once or twice iirc. 

wouldn't have objected to Smart connecting with a punch to Lebron to let him know that won't be tolerated and draw attention to the crap Bron's been pulling.  Of course that'd leave Rozier as our only PG which would be a real issue but I'd love to see the shock on Bron's face if someone decked him for that crap.  that's how they handled that garbage in the 70/80's and I miss that. 
Title: Re: Lowe and Simmons on Smart's Contract
Post by: wdleehi on May 22, 2018, 12:29:51 PM
I am good with the QO contract for Smart. 

Just don't overpay the role players.   That is how teams end up trading better talents away.  No matter how good a team gets, there is always a cut off on how much they will pay. 
Title: Re: Lowe and Simmons on Smart's Contract
Post by: Fafnir on May 22, 2018, 12:32:54 PM
I really don't get the thought that Smart shoots too much. In starter minutes he shoots 8-12 times a game, that's fine.

I'd love if he didn't take pull up jumpers when the whole team stops moving which happens once or twice a game, but that's a collective issue of a play breaking down and no one reseting quickly.
Title: Re: Lowe and Simmons on Smart's Contract
Post by: RJ87 on May 22, 2018, 12:33:31 PM
I like Smart, but he shoots way too many 3's and he gets too emotional (some emotion is fine, but he goes way overboard).  Take the end of the game last night, C's had no real shot at winning, but there was Smart being super and overly aggressive with James.  I was really worried he was going to go to far, get suspended, and cost Boston any shot at winning the series.  I don't think he can tone it down, which is the real problem.  He reminds me a lot of Rondo.  Does a lot of the little things, but is just so immature on the court, and unlike Rondo, he doesn't know when to stop shooting. 
hard to blame him at the end of the game with Lebron shoving him and giving elbows every time Smart covered him.  took a hand to the face once or twice iirc. 

wouldn't have objected to Smart connecting with a punch to Lebron to let him know that won't be tolerated and draw attention to the crap Bron's been pulling.  Of course that'd leave Rozier as our only PG which would be a real issue but I'd love to see the shock on Bron's face if someone decked him for that crap.  that's how they handled that garbage in the 70/80's and I miss that.

So Smart throws a punch, gets suspended for 2 games(Arron Afflalo was suspended 2 for his antics) in a now best of 3 series, we get sent home early while the Cavs go through to the Finals?

Yeah. That'll REALLY show LeBron ::)
Title: Re: Lowe and Simmons on Smart's Contract
Post by: Fafnir on May 22, 2018, 12:41:10 PM
Toughness is as much mental as physical. Its not mentally tough to throw a punch and get yourself kicked out of a series when your team needs you on the court.
Title: Re: Lowe and Simmons on Smart's Contract
Post by: Ilikesports17 on May 22, 2018, 12:47:03 PM
I like Smart, but he shoots way too many 3's and he gets too emotional (some emotion is fine, but he goes way overboard).  Take the end of the game last night, C's had no real shot at winning, but there was Smart being super and overly aggressive with James.  I was really worried he was going to go to far, get suspended, and cost Boston any shot at winning the series.  I don't think he can tone it down, which is the real problem.  He reminds me a lot of Rondo.  Does a lot of the little things, but is just so immature on the court, and unlike Rondo, he doesn't know when to stop shooting.
He came no where near a suspendable offense last night. He just took a beating from Lebron.

He gets overly emotional but let's not pretend he almost got himself suspended last night.
Title: Re: Lowe and Simmons on Smart's Contract
Post by: Moranis on May 22, 2018, 12:53:44 PM
I like Smart, but he shoots way too many 3's and he gets too emotional (some emotion is fine, but he goes way overboard).  Take the end of the game last night, C's had no real shot at winning, but there was Smart being super and overly aggressive with James.  I was really worried he was going to go to far, get suspended, and cost Boston any shot at winning the series.  I don't think he can tone it down, which is the real problem.  He reminds me a lot of Rondo.  Does a lot of the little things, but is just so immature on the court, and unlike Rondo, he doesn't know when to stop shooting.
He came no where near a suspendable offense last night. He just took a beating from Lebron.

He gets overly emotional but let's not pretend he almost got himself suspended last night.
I never said he did nor even implied he did. 
Title: Re: Lowe and Simmons on Smart's Contract
Post by: Moranis on May 22, 2018, 12:56:12 PM
I really don't get the thought that Smart shoots too much. In starter minutes he shoots 8-12 times a game, that's fine.

I'd love if he didn't take pull up jumpers when the whole team stops moving which happens once or twice a game, but that's a collective issue of a play breaking down and no one reseting quickly.
He shoots too much because he is perhaps the worst shooter in the history of the game.  If he was shooting layups, sure, shoot away, but someone who 4 years in shooting 4.2 3's a game and hits them at just 29.3% shouldn't shoot them (or at least not anywhere near the rate he does).  It takes away from his overall game and value.
Title: Re: Lowe and Simmons on Smart's Contract
Post by: nickagneta on May 22, 2018, 12:58:08 PM
Smart drives me nuts. He prefers a three man offensive set with him and the two bigs while the wings sit in the corners. This results in a lot of over dribbling and last second shots. His shot selection is horrible. He has some of the stupidest turnovers that drive me nuts. That behind the back save/pass last night to a Cav under the basket was awful. And he just can't shoot but shoots often because he thinks he can.

Andre Roberson, a similar great defense, intangibles, poor offense player got 3 years/$30 million in a boom market. That market has disappeared. Can't see where, with the current market for a player of his type drying up, where he will get offers over the $9 million per year or so, MLE range.

Unfortunately for Smart, Ainge is going to have to play hardball regarding his contract because he just can't be overpaying for bench role players when so much is going to have to be spent on Tatum, Brown, Irving, Horford and Hayward.
Title: Re: Lowe and Simmons on Smart's Contract
Post by: ETNCeltics on May 22, 2018, 12:59:27 PM
$10m or so is fair, not only because that's a reasonable estimate for Smart's value, but also because good organizations shouldn't be paying much more than that for role players.

If we keep Rozier, and Hayward, Irving and everyone else stays healthy, it's not like Smart is going to have more time to showcase what he does. Someone offers him a $40million + contract, he should pounce on it.
Title: Re: Lowe and Simmons on Smart's Contract
Post by: celticsclay on May 22, 2018, 01:05:23 PM
I like Smart, but he shoots way too many 3's and he gets too emotional (some emotion is fine, but he goes way overboard).  Take the end of the game last night, C's had no real shot at winning, but there was Smart being super and overly aggressive with James.  I was really worried he was going to go to far, get suspended, and cost Boston any shot at winning the series.  I don't think he can tone it down, which is the real problem.  He reminds me a lot of Rondo.  Does a lot of the little things, but is just so immature on the court, and unlike Rondo, he doesn't know when to stop shooting.
He came no where near a suspendable offense last night. He just took a beating from Lebron.

He gets overly emotional but let's not pretend he almost got himself suspended last night.

I agree. There was no reason to think he was going to get suspended last night.
Title: Re: Lowe and Simmons on Smart's Contract
Post by: Phantom255x on May 22, 2018, 01:13:20 PM
I've always said that 4 years, 40-44M for Smart makes the most sense.

I think it's possible we have to overpay a bit to keep him though, so maybe 4 years, 48-52M?

Also, after seeing what happened with Noel who rejected a 4/70M offer and took a QO and now will be lucky to even make 70M in career earnings... I'm guessing Smart will sign some sort of lucrative deal this summer, even if it's a 2 year or 3 year deal.

And yeah, Kyrie isn't getting traded.
Title: Re: Lowe and Simmons on Smart's Contract
Post by: hwangjini_1 on May 22, 2018, 01:13:32 PM
I like Smart, but he shoots way too many 3's and he gets too emotional (some emotion is fine, but he goes way overboard).  Take the end of the game last night, C's had no real shot at winning, but there was Smart being super and overly aggressive with James.  I was really worried he was going to go to far, get suspended, and cost Boston any shot at winning the series.  I don't think he can tone it down, which is the real problem.  He reminds me a lot of Rondo.  Does a lot of the little things, but is just so immature on the court, and unlike Rondo, he doesn't know when to stop shooting.
maybe, maybe not. after four years, smart has averaged 8.7 shots per game. in his first four years, rondo averaged 8.95 shots per year. for his career, rondo averages 9.5 shots per game.

smart shoots less times than rondo over their careers.

Title: Re: Lowe and Simmons on Smart's Contract
Post by: nickagneta on May 22, 2018, 01:23:06 PM
I like Smart, but he shoots way too many 3's and he gets too emotional (some emotion is fine, but he goes way overboard).  Take the end of the game last night, C's had no real shot at winning, but there was Smart being super and overly aggressive with James.  I was really worried he was going to go to far, get suspended, and cost Boston any shot at winning the series.  I don't think he can tone it down, which is the real problem.  He reminds me a lot of Rondo.  Does a lot of the little things, but is just so immature on the court, and unlike Rondo, he doesn't know when to stop shooting.
maybe, maybe not. after four years, smart has averaged 8.7 shots per game. in his first four years, rondo averaged 8.95 shots per year. for his career, rondo averages 9.5 shots per game.

smart shoots less times than rondo over their careers.
Yeah but...
Per36 Smart averages 10.9 FGA and Rondo 10.7 for their careers

And Rondo's FG% for his career is 46.3% whereas Smart's is 36%

So even though they shoot the same amount of shots per minute when on the floor, Rondo shot so much better, I mean ridiculously better and also created twice as many shots for others, instead of taking stupid shots.Instead of passing to others, Rondo could have shot more. He decided not to, so in that way Moranis is correct.
Title: Re: Lowe and Simmons on Smart's Contract
Post by: wdleehi on May 22, 2018, 01:27:35 PM
QO.   Basically, let some other team throw some offers at him and see what he is worth.   I don't think it is as much as some of us think.   I think those big number crazy contracts have dried up and teams are watching the cap more. 
Title: Re: Lowe and Simmons on Smart's Contract
Post by: ETNCeltics on May 22, 2018, 01:28:29 PM
I like Smart, but he shoots way too many 3's and he gets too emotional (some emotion is fine, but he goes way overboard).  Take the end of the game last night, C's had no real shot at winning, but there was Smart being super and overly aggressive with James.  I was really worried he was going to go to far, get suspended, and cost Boston any shot at winning the series.  I don't think he can tone it down, which is the real problem.  He reminds me a lot of Rondo.  Does a lot of the little things, but is just so immature on the court, and unlike Rondo, he doesn't know when to stop shooting.
maybe, maybe not. after four years, smart has averaged 8.7 shots per game. in his first four years, rondo averaged 8.95 shots per year. for his career, rondo averages 9.5 shots per game.

smart shoots less times than rondo over their careers.

Rondo wasn't taking bad 3s. Or, in the case of Rondo and Smart, any 3 is a bad 3.

Rondo just didn't shoot a lot of 3s while he was in Boston. His fg% is 10% higher than Smart's. He was shooting mostly inside of 15 feet, while Smart is jacking up 4 or 5 3s per game, in spite of being one of the league's worst 3 pt shooters.

In no way comparable to Rondo when it comes to the shooting.

Title: Re: Lowe and Simmons on Smart's Contract
Post by: action781 on May 22, 2018, 01:31:31 PM
I really don't get the thought that Smart shoots too much. In starter minutes he shoots 8-12 times a game, that's fine.

I'd love if he didn't take pull up jumpers when the whole team stops moving which happens once or twice a game, but that's a collective issue of a play breaking down and no one reseting quickly.
He shoots too much because he is perhaps the worst shooter in the history of the game.  If he was shooting layups, sure, shoot away, but someone who 4 years in shooting 4.2 3's a game and hits them at just 29.3% shouldn't shoot them (or at least not anywhere near the rate he does).  It takes away from his overall game and value.

I agree here.  It's not his volume in a vacuum thats unacceptable.  Its his volume relative to his efficiency.  In the regular season, he took 11.5 FGA per 36.  Which is right about as much as how many Horford took (11.9) and Tatum (12.3).  In the playoffs, he's taking 11.6 FGA per 36 which is more than Horford (11.1).  With Kyrie gone, I don't want to kill Smart for his shooting too much as there are more shots to go around now.  If good looks are there, take them.  But he and the team need to start reconsidering whether 3 pointers are good looks for him.  He's shooting those at just 20.4% this postseason and he's jacking them up at a rate that is third highest on the team (5.4 per 36) behind Rozier and Jaylen.  He should not be shooting more 3s than Tatum, Morris, or Horford over a long stretch of time.  That is something very controllable and I think should be fixed.  Tony Parker turns down open 3s all the time and is a considerably better shooter than Smart.  Its ok to turn them down for better looks.
Title: Re: Lowe and Simmons on Smart's Contract
Post by: wdleehi on May 22, 2018, 01:34:25 PM
I really don't get the thought that Smart shoots too much. In starter minutes he shoots 8-12 times a game, that's fine.

I'd love if he didn't take pull up jumpers when the whole team stops moving which happens once or twice a game, but that's a collective issue of a play breaking down and no one reseting quickly.
He shoots too much because he is perhaps the worst shooter in the history of the game.  If he was shooting layups, sure, shoot away, but someone who 4 years in shooting 4.2 3's a game and hits them at just 29.3% shouldn't shoot them (or at least not anywhere near the rate he does).  It takes away from his overall game and value.

I agree here.  It's not his volume in a vacuum thats unacceptable.  Its his volume relative to his efficiency.  In the regular season, he took 11.5 FGA per 36.  Which is right about as much as how many Horford took (11.9) and Tatum (12.3).  In the playoffs, he's taking 11.6 FGA per 36 which is more than Horford (11.1).  With Kyrie gone, I don't want to kill Smart for his shooting too much as there are more shots to go around now.  If good looks are there, take them.  But he and the team need to start reconsidering whether 3 pointers are good looks for him.  He's shooting those at just 20.4% this postseason and he's jacking them up at a rate that is third highest on the team (5.4 per 36) behind Rozier and Jaylen.  He should not be shooting more 3s than Tatum, Morris, or Horford over a long stretch of time.  That is something very controllable and I think should be fixed.  Tony Parker turns down open 3s all the time and is a considerably better shooter than Smart.  Its ok to turn them down for better looks.


It also depends on when the shots were taken.  Was it early of late in the shot clock?


Yes, I would like to see more of those shots going to Horford, Tatum and Brown.
Title: Re: Lowe and Simmons on Smart's Contract
Post by: tonydelk on May 22, 2018, 01:41:51 PM
Best case scenario is Smart either signs the QO or The C's get him for 9-10 per year.  If he signs the QO the C's can stay out of the luxury tax next year and use an exception to resign baynes or another vet.  I believe his QO is a little over 6m.  We know eventually the C's will be in Luxury Tax and will pay the repeater tax.  It's best financially for the team if they don't pay the Lux Tax next year.  The year after if Kyrie resigns a max deal they have no choice so they can also resign one of Terry and Marcus or Resign Marcus and keep Terry on his QO if he wants to wait to hit unrestricted FA the following year.  I'd be shocked if Marcus took the QO but stranger things have happened.
Title: Re: Lowe and Simmons on Smart's Contract
Post by: mef730 on May 22, 2018, 01:44:08 PM
Here's what it comes down to for me:

I think the deal gets done at 4 years, +/- $11 million per year. Why? Because Marcus Smart, more than any other player on the team, is able to do what he does because of the style of the team. In other words, he wouldn't be nearly as effective elsewhere. I'm hoping that both sides are smart enough to see this (and we all know that the Celtics are; it's the other side I worry about).

Mike
Title: Re: Lowe and Simmons on Smart's Contract
Post by: nickagneta on May 22, 2018, 01:46:48 PM
Here's what it comes down to for me:

I think the deal gets done at 4 years, +/- $11 million per year. Why? Because Marcus Smart, more than any other player on the team, is able to do what he does because of the style of the team. In other words, he wouldn't be nearly as effective elsewhere. I'm hoping that both sides are smart enough to see this (and we all know that the Celtics are; it's the other side I worry about).

Mike
If he wouldn't be as effective elsewhere, other GMs will know this and offer him less. Why should we overpay for him? Pay him what the market dictates. Don't bid against yourself and overpay.
Title: Re: Lowe and Simmons on Smart's Contract
Post by: td450 on May 22, 2018, 01:48:17 PM
One thing in our favor is that his skill set is almost completely complimentary. It is no coincidence that he is great at the end of games when he is the guy everyone else cheats off of. He's valuable to us because he's great at opportunistic plays, but day in, day out, he's just an awful offensive player.

Hopefully the sub .500 teams that normally overbid for middle class players will see this. On a bad team, he isn't the kind of player most teams want to spend on. My worry is that someone will think they can buy some of the Celtic culture by bringing him on board, but $15M is a lot of money for toughness and 36% shooting.
Title: Re: Lowe and Simmons on Smart's Contract
Post by: libermaniac on May 22, 2018, 01:51:10 PM
I really don't get the thought that Smart shoots too much. In starter minutes he shoots 8-12 times a game, that's fine.

I'd love if he didn't take pull up jumpers when the whole team stops moving which happens once or twice a game, but that's a collective issue of a play breaking down and no one reseting quickly.
He shoots too much because he is perhaps the worst shooter in the history of the game.  If he was shooting layups, sure, shoot away, but someone who 4 years in shooting 4.2 3's a game and hits them at just 29.3% shouldn't shoot them (or at least not anywhere near the rate he does).  It takes away from his overall game and value.
Over the past 2 years, Marcus smart has taken 9.5 shots per game and made about 36.4% of those shots.  I think we can all agree that if he were shooting 46.4%, we'd be fine with that.  With only 9.5 shot attempts, he's basically costing the team ONE MISSED SHOT per game.  I think he more than makes up for that one missed shot with all the other things he does.
Title: Re: Lowe and Simmons on Smart's Contract
Post by: liam on May 22, 2018, 01:53:04 PM
If Smart gets offered 4 years for 40 million he should jump on that. With the reckless way he plays he'll be very lucky to make it through a full season and not get hurt. A bird in the hand and all. Look at Noel, turning down that long term contact and what'll he get now? 
Title: Re: Lowe and Simmons on Smart's Contract
Post by: DefenseWinsChamps on May 22, 2018, 02:08:01 PM
It only takes one team to outbid us, but who would that be?

Seriously, who? Here is the list of teams (listed most cap space to least) with enough cap space to offer him more than the MLE listed (cap space is the maximum possible space, including rescinding all of the teams current cap holds, which is normally unlikely).

Lakers? Nope, bigger fish to fry and they don't want to get another non-shooter in the backcourt with Ball.
Bulls? They already have Dunn and Lavine and rebuilding teams don't have a great use for a player like Smart.
Sixers? Bigger fish to fry and they don't want another non-shooter next to Simmons.
Hawks? Rebuilding team that already has lots of cash invested in Schroeder and Bazemore. Also, Dedmon, Muscala and their 1st will take away the cap space they have.
Kings? They might spend a lot of money on a young player, but can they really count on the shooting of a Fox/Smart backcourt, especially if they draft a big guy?
Mavs? More on this in a second.
Rockets? They are targeting James and resigning Paul this off-season. Not enough cap space.
Nets? Okafor, Harris, and/or Stauskas will likely all be retained first, and after that there isn't enough cap space for Smart. On top of that, they are invested in Lin, Russell, Crabbe, and Lavert.
Magic? Gordon, Hezonja, and their 1st will eat into their cap space first.
Jazz? Exum, Udoh, and O'neale will eat into the cap space they could offer to Smart.
Suns? Payton, Len, Williams, and their 1st will eat into the amount they could offer Smart.

Honestly, I cannot see any team that has the cap space to offer Smart more than the MLE actually making an offer OTHER THAN THE MAVS.

Smart is from Texas. Although Cuban has never targeted RFA in FA, Smart could be one of the first. They'd have to rescind the cap holds of Ferrell, Curry, McDermott, Noel, and Mejiri.

Also, they have to ask if Smith is a good fit with Smart. They also have a lot of money invested in Matthews for one more year.

I've argued that the Mavs are a dark horse team in FA this year. DeAndre Jordan could finally wind up there, and they may be one of the teams targeting Leonard and/or George (trade package of Barnes + the 5th pick?).

The Mavs, Hawks, Bulls, and Nets might decide that Smart is their guy, rescind all other cap holds, and offer him a big contract, but I find that unlikely considering their roster construct.

Seriously, I'm trying to figure out who we are outbidding for Smart's services. If a different team offers him their MLE, Ainge would match that in a second.
Title: Re: Lowe and Simmons on Smart's Contract
Post by: aefgogreen on May 22, 2018, 02:49:33 PM
It only takes one team to outbid us, but who would that be?

Seriously, who? Here is the list of teams (listed most cap space to least) with enough cap space to offer him more than the MLE listed (cap space is the maximum possible space, including rescinding all of the teams current cap holds, which is normally unlikely).

Lakers? Nope, bigger fish to fry and they don't want to get another non-shooter in the backcourt with Ball.
Bulls? They already have Dunn and Lavine and rebuilding teams don't have a great use for a player like Smart.
Sixers? Bigger fish to fry and they don't want another non-shooter next to Simmons.
Hawks? Rebuilding team that already has lots of cash invested in Schroeder and Bazemore. Also, Dedmon, Muscala and their 1st will take away the cap space they have.
Kings? They might spend a lot of money on a young player, but can they really count on the shooting of a Fox/Smart backcourt, especially if they draft a big guy?
Mavs? More on this in a second.
Rockets? They are targeting James and resigning Paul this off-season. Not enough cap space.
Nets? Okafor, Harris, and/or Stauskas will likely all be retained first, and after that there isn't enough cap space for Smart. On top of that, they are invested in Lin, Russell, Crabbe, and Lavert.
Magic? Gordon, Hezonja, and their 1st will eat into their cap space first.
Jazz? Exum, Udoh, and O'neale will eat into the cap space they could offer to Smart.
Suns? Payton, Len, Williams, and their 1st will eat into the amount they could offer Smart.

Honestly, I cannot see any team that has the cap space to offer Smart more than the MLE actually making an offer OTHER THAN THE MAVS.

Smart is from Texas. Although Cuban has never targeted RFA in FA, Smart could be one of the first. They'd have to rescind the cap holds of Ferrell, Curry, McDermott, Noel, and Mejiri.

Also, they have to ask if Smith is a good fit with Smart. They also have a lot of money invested in Matthews for one more year.

I've argued that the Mavs are a dark horse team in FA this year. DeAndre Jordan could finally wind up there, and they may be one of the teams targeting Leonard and/or George (trade package of Barnes + the 5th pick?).

The Mavs, Hawks, Bulls, and Nets might decide that Smart is their guy, rescind all other cap holds, and offer him a big contract, but I find that unlikely considering their roster construct.

Seriously, I'm trying to figure out who we are outbidding for Smart's services. If a different team offers him their MLE, Ainge would match that in a second.

The Kings are my nightmare.  We don't need Smart helping them win any games.
Title: Re: Lowe and Simmons on Smart's Contract
Post by: Sophomore on May 22, 2018, 02:53:36 PM
Smart is what we all know him to be - infuriating then a hero.

What I noticed last night: at the very end of the game Marcus started picking up LBJ, after a few plays LeBron engineered some switches so he’d be guarded by Jaylen instead. That spoke volumes.
Title: Re: Lowe and Simmons on Smart's Contract
Post by: nickagneta on May 22, 2018, 03:38:17 PM
It only takes one team to outbid us, but who would that be?

Seriously, who? Here is the list of teams (listed most cap space to least) with enough cap space to offer him more than the MLE listed (cap space is the maximum possible space, including rescinding all of the teams current cap holds, which is normally unlikely).

Lakers? Nope, bigger fish to fry and they don't want to get another non-shooter in the backcourt with Ball.
Bulls? They already have Dunn and Lavine and rebuilding teams don't have a great use for a player like Smart.
Sixers? Bigger fish to fry and they don't want another non-shooter next to Simmons.
Hawks? Rebuilding team that already has lots of cash invested in Schroeder and Bazemore. Also, Dedmon, Muscala and their 1st will take away the cap space they have.
Kings? They might spend a lot of money on a young player, but can they really count on the shooting of a Fox/Smart backcourt, especially if they draft a big guy?
Mavs? More on this in a second.
Rockets? They are targeting James and resigning Paul this off-season. Not enough cap space.
Nets? Okafor, Harris, and/or Stauskas will likely all be retained first, and after that there isn't enough cap space for Smart. On top of that, they are invested in Lin, Russell, Crabbe, and Lavert.
Magic? Gordon, Hezonja, and their 1st will eat into their cap space first.
Jazz? Exum, Udoh, and O'neale will eat into the cap space they could offer to Smart.
Suns? Payton, Len, Williams, and their 1st will eat into the amount they could offer Smart.

Honestly, I cannot see any team that has the cap space to offer Smart more than the MLE actually making an offer OTHER THAN THE MAVS.

Smart is from Texas. Although Cuban has never targeted RFA in FA, Smart could be one of the first. They'd have to rescind the cap holds of Ferrell, Curry, McDermott, Noel, and Mejiri.

Also, they have to ask if Smith is a good fit with Smart. They also have a lot of money invested in Matthews for one more year.

I've argued that the Mavs are a dark horse team in FA this year. DeAndre Jordan could finally wind up there, and they may be one of the teams targeting Leonard and/or George (trade package of Barnes + the 5th pick?).

The Mavs, Hawks, Bulls, and Nets might decide that Smart is their guy, rescind all other cap holds, and offer him a big contract, but I find that unlikely considering their roster construct.

Seriously, I'm trying to figure out who we are outbidding for Smart's services. If a different team offers him their MLE, Ainge would match that in a second.
Just want to say that regarding the teams you claim won't have space because they have to sign their players first, realize if those players have Bird rights, the team could always sign Smart first, if there is space with the cap holds, then go over the cap to resign those players.

Not going to look at which teams could do this but it is something you might want to reconsider with this list.
Title: Re: Lowe and Simmons on Smart's Contract
Post by: DefenseWinsChamps on May 22, 2018, 03:45:50 PM
It only takes one team to outbid us, but who would that be?

Seriously, who? Here is the list of teams (listed most cap space to least) with enough cap space to offer him more than the MLE listed (cap space is the maximum possible space, including rescinding all of the teams current cap holds, which is normally unlikely).

Lakers? Nope, bigger fish to fry and they don't want to get another non-shooter in the backcourt with Ball.
Bulls? They already have Dunn and Lavine and rebuilding teams don't have a great use for a player like Smart.
Sixers? Bigger fish to fry and they don't want another non-shooter next to Simmons.
Hawks? Rebuilding team that already has lots of cash invested in Schroeder and Bazemore. Also, Dedmon, Muscala and their 1st will take away the cap space they have.
Kings? They might spend a lot of money on a young player, but can they really count on the shooting of a Fox/Smart backcourt, especially if they draft a big guy?
Mavs? More on this in a second.
Rockets? They are targeting James and resigning Paul this off-season. Not enough cap space.
Nets? Okafor, Harris, and/or Stauskas will likely all be retained first, and after that there isn't enough cap space for Smart. On top of that, they are invested in Lin, Russell, Crabbe, and Lavert.
Magic? Gordon, Hezonja, and their 1st will eat into their cap space first.
Jazz? Exum, Udoh, and O'neale will eat into the cap space they could offer to Smart.
Suns? Payton, Len, Williams, and their 1st will eat into the amount they could offer Smart.

Honestly, I cannot see any team that has the cap space to offer Smart more than the MLE actually making an offer OTHER THAN THE MAVS.

Smart is from Texas. Although Cuban has never targeted RFA in FA, Smart could be one of the first. They'd have to rescind the cap holds of Ferrell, Curry, McDermott, Noel, and Mejiri.

Also, they have to ask if Smith is a good fit with Smart. They also have a lot of money invested in Matthews for one more year.

I've argued that the Mavs are a dark horse team in FA this year. DeAndre Jordan could finally wind up there, and they may be one of the teams targeting Leonard and/or George (trade package of Barnes + the 5th pick?).

The Mavs, Hawks, Bulls, and Nets might decide that Smart is their guy, rescind all other cap holds, and offer him a big contract, but I find that unlikely considering their roster construct.

Seriously, I'm trying to figure out who we are outbidding for Smart's services. If a different team offers him their MLE, Ainge would match that in a second.
Just want to say that regarding the teams you claim won't have space because they have to sign their players first, realize if those players have Bird rights, the team could always sign Smart first, if there is space with the cap holds, then go over the cap to resign those players.

Not going to look at which teams could do this but it is something you might want to reconsider with this list.

In order to resign them with Bird rights, they would not be allowed to keep their cap holds. All of the teams in the above list are listed with as having enough cap space with all cap holds removed.

Any that I mentioned I thought would be enough to take enough cap space that they would not be able to sign Smart.
Title: Re: Lowe and Simmons on Smart's Contract
Post by: td450 on May 22, 2018, 03:52:44 PM
I really don't get the thought that Smart shoots too much. In starter minutes he shoots 8-12 times a game, that's fine.

I'd love if he didn't take pull up jumpers when the whole team stops moving which happens once or twice a game, but that's a collective issue of a play breaking down and no one reseting quickly.
He shoots too much because he is perhaps the worst shooter in the history of the game.  If he was shooting layups, sure, shoot away, but someone who 4 years in shooting 4.2 3's a game and hits them at just 29.3% shouldn't shoot them (or at least not anywhere near the rate he does).  It takes away from his overall game and value.
Over the past 2 years, Marcus smart has taken 9.5 shots per game and made about 36.4% of those shots.  I think we can all agree that if he were shooting 46.4%, we'd be fine with that.  With only 9.5 shot attempts, he's basically costing the team ONE MISSED SHOT per game.  I think he more than makes up for that one missed shot with all the other things he does.

You could rationalize the difference between us and the Phoenix Suns with similar math.
Title: Re: Lowe and Simmons on Smart's Contract
Post by: feckless on May 22, 2018, 04:02:10 PM
Didn't Marcus try his "strong post up move" on Tristan Thompson last night and get laughably rejected.  Are you serious Marcus?

I hope my memory is wrong, but Marcus's sense of good offense is too often ridiculous.
Title: Re: Lowe and Simmons on Smart's Contract
Post by: keevsnick on May 22, 2018, 04:05:10 PM
We talk algo about his winning plays, but we saw the flip side last night where he can be a complete offensive zero. Literally one of tge b worst offensive games i have seen. He may be a great end of game player but how much is he gonna play in crunch time next year if we are healthy. Im not 5akihg a young guy or all star out to play smart. 40/4 sounds right to me, if he takes the QO thats fine too. Put off tax concerns a year.
Title: Re: Lowe and Simmons on Smart's Contract
Post by: TheSundanceKid on May 22, 2018, 04:10:49 PM
I like Smart, but he shoots way too many 3's and he gets too emotional (some emotion is fine, but he goes way overboard).  Take the end of the game last night, C's had no real shot at winning, but there was Smart being super and overly aggressive with James.  I was really worried he was going to go to far, get suspended, and cost Boston any shot at winning the series.  I don't think he can tone it down, which is the real problem.  He reminds me a lot of Rondo.  Does a lot of the little things, but is just so immature on the court, and unlike Rondo, he doesn't know when to stop shooting.

Really? C'mon man... Every team has guys like Smart or Rondo, they call them instigators and they aren't a negative. You don't worry about them because they add more than they take away.

I think it makes sense for the Celts and for Smart to do a one year deal.

They'll sort out what to do with Terry and Marcus after next season (when hopefully they're coming off a Finals run).


Look, Smart is a great player and he makes so many clutch plays.  He's basically the Celts' version of Iguodala.

That said, how much does it make sense to pay for the 6th best player on your team?

The Celts need to prioritize Kyrie, Brown, Hayward, Tatum, Horford.  Signing Smart should not jeopardize their ability to pay and keep all of those guys moving forward.

I suppose as long as Smart is a trade asset on his next deal it doesn't matter.  They can move him if/when Jaylen / Tatum need to get paid if necessary.

I know that seems like an obvious statement, that he isn't better than Kyrie, Brown etc. However that kind of player is what pushes you over the line as a championship team, so yes I do pay for him. The salary cap isn't that awful, you can pay the 6th guy. And with the calibre of the 5 in front, you don't need to be as deep as we would have been this year if healthy.

The reason I work out how to lock him up now is I have the control. If I slightly overpay then I have the ability to move Smart when the time comes, if I have to give him the extra year to sign or a player option then I do it. Obviously don't go ridiculous over it but having him walk next summer is bad for this team.
Title: Re: Lowe and Simmons on Smart's Contract
Post by: Fafnir on May 22, 2018, 04:29:20 PM
I love Smart and hope they keep him, but the C's will be so much better off when they can finally say their best lineup does not have him on the floor and he's truly a bench 6th man energy guy.
Title: Re: Lowe and Simmons on Smart's Contract
Post by: nickagneta on May 22, 2018, 05:01:36 PM
It only takes one team to outbid us, but who would that be?

Seriously, who? Here is the list of teams (listed most cap space to least) with enough cap space to offer him more than the MLE listed (cap space is the maximum possible space, including rescinding all of the teams current cap holds, which is normally unlikely).

Lakers? Nope, bigger fish to fry and they don't want to get another non-shooter in the backcourt with Ball.
Bulls? They already have Dunn and Lavine and rebuilding teams don't have a great use for a player like Smart.
Sixers? Bigger fish to fry and they don't want another non-shooter next to Simmons.
Hawks? Rebuilding team that already has lots of cash invested in Schroeder and Bazemore. Also, Dedmon, Muscala and their 1st will take away the cap space they have.
Kings? They might spend a lot of money on a young player, but can they really count on the shooting of a Fox/Smart backcourt, especially if they draft a big guy?
Mavs? More on this in a second.
Rockets? They are targeting James and resigning Paul this off-season. Not enough cap space.
Nets? Okafor, Harris, and/or Stauskas will likely all be retained first, and after that there isn't enough cap space for Smart. On top of that, they are invested in Lin, Russell, Crabbe, and Lavert.
Magic? Gordon, Hezonja, and their 1st will eat into their cap space first.
Jazz? Exum, Udoh, and O'neale will eat into the cap space they could offer to Smart.
Suns? Payton, Len, Williams, and their 1st will eat into the amount they could offer Smart.

Honestly, I cannot see any team that has the cap space to offer Smart more than the MLE actually making an offer OTHER THAN THE MAVS.

Smart is from Texas. Although Cuban has never targeted RFA in FA, Smart could be one of the first. They'd have to rescind the cap holds of Ferrell, Curry, McDermott, Noel, and Mejiri.

Also, they have to ask if Smith is a good fit with Smart. They also have a lot of money invested in Matthews for one more year.

I've argued that the Mavs are a dark horse team in FA this year. DeAndre Jordan could finally wind up there, and they may be one of the teams targeting Leonard and/or George (trade package of Barnes + the 5th pick?).

The Mavs, Hawks, Bulls, and Nets might decide that Smart is their guy, rescind all other cap holds, and offer him a big contract, but I find that unlikely considering their roster construct.

Seriously, I'm trying to figure out who we are outbidding for Smart's services. If a different team offers him their MLE, Ainge would match that in a second.
Just want to say that regarding the teams you claim won't have space because they have to sign their players first, realize if those players have Bird rights, the team could always sign Smart first, if there is space with the cap holds, then go over the cap to resign those players.

Not going to look at which teams could do this but it is something you might want to reconsider with this list.

In order to resign them with Bird rights, they would not be allowed to keep their cap holds. All of the teams in the above list are listed with as having enough cap space with all cap holds removed.

Any that I mentioned I thought would be enough to take enough cap space that they would not be able to sign Smart.
Ah... TP for clarifying
Title: Re: Lowe and Simmons on Smart's Contract
Post by: dreamgreen on May 22, 2018, 05:10:41 PM
I can see Smart at $10m a year anything more than that is an OVERPAY! If this team is healthy he will get 20 minutes a game. People forget with Irving and Hayward are healthy they are going to take 70 mpg from the other guys!!
Title: Re: Lowe and Simmons on Smart's Contract
Post by: Birdman on May 22, 2018, 05:19:35 PM
I can see Cuban throwing some serious money to free agents this year
Title: Re: Lowe and Simmons on Smart's Contract
Post by: nickagneta on May 22, 2018, 05:21:44 PM
I can see Smart at $10m a year anything more than that is an OVERPAY! If this team is healthy he will get 20 minutes a game. People forget with Irving and Hayward are healthy they are going to take 70 mpg from the other guys!!
Maybe not 70 but your point is well taken. Personally I think Stevens is going to keep his best players at around 30-32 MPG. Should be interesting to see how Stevens manages it but, yeah, I could see everyone playing less minutes next year. Some maybe a lot and that could be Smart if Rozier improves his shooting again and becomes an efficient 11-13 ppg level.
Title: Re: Lowe and Simmons on Smart's Contract
Post by: Beat LA on May 22, 2018, 05:31:43 PM
He should be paying the Celtics to even get on the court at this point, imo. Dude is beyond awful, lol ;D. Ugh.
Title: Re: Lowe and Simmons on Smart's Contract
Post by: colincb on May 22, 2018, 05:52:49 PM
I agree with their assessment.

Smart is in the bottom 20% of total shooting% and turnover rate% in the NBA, he hurts our offense almost as much as he helps our defense. He is good enough to be a rotation player and sometimes finisher, but that's it. He could be a late bloomer, but on a bunch of offensive benchmarks, he has had little progress other than on assist% and this year he's below his career averages on PER, total shooting%, and turnover% and none of his career averages are great. He has also been surpassed as a two-way player by Rozier. 

On the defensive side, he is all-NBA but similar all-NBA defenders Roberson of OKC and Beverly of the LAC make on average $10MM and $6MM, respectively, on contracts they signed in 2017 and 2015, respectively. They are both all-NBA defenders and both offensively challenged. You're not getting Smart (or Beverly in 2018) for $6MM, but getting much past $10MM is betting against 4 years experience that Smart's going to improve much offensively.
Title: Re: Lowe and Simmons on Smart's Contract
Post by: Smitty77 on May 22, 2018, 05:55:41 PM
Is he not fairly fresh off of surgery guys?

Smitty77
Title: Re: Lowe and Simmons on Smart's Contract
Post by: GreenEnvy on May 24, 2018, 01:01:24 AM
I agree with their assessment.

Smart is in the bottom 20% of total shooting% and turnover rate% in the NBA, he hurts our offense almost as much as he helps our defense. He is good enough to be a rotation player and sometimes finisher, but that's it. He could be a late bloomer, but on a bunch of offensive benchmarks, he has had little progress other than on assist% and this year he's below his career averages on PER, total shooting%, and turnover% and none of his career averages are great. He has also been surpassed as a two-way player by Rozier. 

On the defensive side, he is all-NBA but similar all-NBA defenders Roberson of OKC and Beverly of the LAC make on average $10MM and $6MM, respectively, on contracts they signed in 2017 and 2015, respectively. They are both all-NBA defenders and both offensively challenged. You're not getting Smart (or Beverly in 2018) for $6MM, but getting much past $10MM is betting against 4 years experience that Smart's going to improve much offensively.

He’s only 23 though and still capable of making a leap as a shooter.

Whether he’s as much as negative offensively as he is a positive defensively is debatable, but isn’t it soooo much more fun seeing him rip a ball out of midair that only he can do than being mad at him bricking a three?

He’s fully capable of knocking down any shot, but how many players are capable of his defensive plays?

The kid is a Celtic.
Title: Re: Lowe and Simmons on Smart's Contract
Post by: vjcsmoke on May 24, 2018, 01:06:37 AM
I'd expect him to get 4 x 14 million at a minimum.

wow 14 million dollars for a 6th man?  NO WAY!!

Smart is a fantastic, elite defender, but he is an all-time bad shooter.  36% from the field and 30% from 3 point.  It's all time worst percentages.

So being realistic 4/40m would be a fair offer for Smart.  If he doesn't take it, well he can play on the cheap for 1 year at qualifying offer $$ and then go into free agency in 2020.
Title: Re: Lowe and Simmons on Smart's Contract
Post by: colincb on May 24, 2018, 01:17:07 AM
I agree with their assessment.

Smart is in the bottom 20% of total shooting% and turnover rate% in the NBA, he hurts our offense almost as much as he helps our defense. He is good enough to be a rotation player and sometimes finisher, but that's it. He could be a late bloomer, but on a bunch of offensive benchmarks, he has had little progress other than on assist% and this year he's below his career averages on PER, total shooting%, and turnover% and none of his career averages are great. He has also been surpassed as a two-way player by Rozier. 

On the defensive side, he is all-NBA but similar all-NBA defenders Roberson of OKC and Beverly of the LAC make on average $10MM and $6MM, respectively, on contracts they signed in 2017 and 2015, respectively. They are both all-NBA defenders and both offensively challenged. You're not getting Smart (or Beverly in 2018) for $6MM, but getting much past $10MM is betting against 4 years experience that Smart's going to improve much offensively.

He’s only 23 though and still capable of making a leap as a shooter.

Whether he’s as much as negative offensively as he is a positive defensively is debatable, but isn’t it soooo much more fun seeing him rip a ball out of midair that only he can do than being mad at him bricking a three?

He’s fully capable of knocking down any shot, but how many players are capable of his defensive plays?

The kid is a Celtic.

Didn't say he was more of a negative offensively than a positive defensively. He's a rotation player who could start on another team.

The kid's a Celtic next season if his price is right.
Title: Re: Lowe and Simmons on Smart's Contract
Post by: GreenEnvy on May 24, 2018, 01:36:52 AM
I agree with their assessment.

Smart is in the bottom 20% of total shooting% and turnover rate% in the NBA, he hurts our offense almost as much as he helps our defense. He is good enough to be a rotation player and sometimes finisher, but that's it. He could be a late bloomer, but on a bunch of offensive benchmarks, he has had little progress other than on assist% and this year he's below his career averages on PER, total shooting%, and turnover% and none of his career averages are great. He has also been surpassed as a two-way player by Rozier. 

On the defensive side, he is all-NBA but similar all-NBA defenders Roberson of OKC and Beverly of the LAC make on average $10MM and $6MM, respectively, on contracts they signed in 2017 and 2015, respectively. They are both all-NBA defenders and both offensively challenged. You're not getting Smart (or Beverly in 2018) for $6MM, but getting much past $10MM is betting against 4 years experience that Smart's going to improve much offensively.

He’s only 23 though and still capable of making a leap as a shooter.

Whether he’s as much as negative offensively as he is a positive defensively is debatable, but isn’t it soooo much more fun seeing him rip a ball out of midair that only he can do than being mad at him bricking a three?

He’s fully capable of knocking down any shot, but how many players are capable of his defensive plays?

The kid is a Celtic.

Didn't say he was more of a negative offensively than a positive defensively. He's a rotation player who could start on another team.

The kid's a Celtic next season if his price is right.

Ya did say he hurts our offense almost as much as he helps our defense. I think it’s debatable (but certainly possible). I know ha NetRtg would suggest that’s true, but I think he makes winning plays more often than boneheaded ones.

I enjoy watching his play more than almost anyone in the NBA. He does things that very few can replicate. He has this uncanny feel for defense that most resembles a linebacker, he just reads and reacts with such tenacity.

I’d be shocked (and disappointed) if he isn’t on the team next season. I think it would be a very large and uncharacteristic mistake by Ainge to let him walk. Obviously the market will dictate how we proceed with him but others have pointed out that few teams make sense to outbid us as he only helps a playoff team/contender and few of those will be have the money/interest to pursue him.
Title: Re: Lowe and Simmons on Smart's Contract
Post by: Kuberski33 on May 24, 2018, 01:43:46 AM

Honestly, I cannot see any team that has the cap space to offer Smart more than the MLE actually making an offer OTHER THAN THE MAVS.

Smart is from Texas. Although Cuban has never targeted RFA in FA, Smart could be one of the first. They'd have to rescind the cap holds of Ferrell, Curry, McDermott, Noel, and Mejiri.

Also, they have to ask if Smith is a good fit with Smart. They also have a lot of money invested in Matthews for one more year.

I've argued that the Mavs are a dark horse team in FA this year. DeAndre Jordan could finally wind up there, and they may be one of the teams targeting Leonard and/or George (trade package of Barnes + the 5th pick?).

The Mavs, Hawks, Bulls, and Nets might decide that Smart is their guy, rescind all other cap holds, and offer him a big contract, but I find that unlikely considering their roster construct.
The Mavs make sense.  Dirk is apparently coming back for another year and Cuban supposedly doesn't want to tank - so if you add Smart that's going to help change your culture and at least give you a shot at a 7-8 finish in the conference.  Cuban would know he's got to blow the C's out of the water in order to pry Smart away so maybe he makes an offer in the $15-$16 million range.