NBA proposal to replace lottery with "draft wheel" (Lowe article)

[obnoxiousmime]

I prefer Chad Ford's idea.

Bill ((Philadelphia))

Chad, any reaction to the Zach Lowe article about the "wheel" draft? Do certain teams around the league already support it?

Chad Ford  (1:53 PM)

Great, just like everything else Zach writes. He's become a must read for me. However, I still think the solution is an idea I've been writing about for a few years. The NBA should aggregate the record of teams over the past three seasons and then give the 3 teams with the worst record over the past three years an equal shot at the No. 1 pick. It's one thing to tank a season. An entirely different thing to tank for 3 for only a 33 percent shot at getting the No. 1 pick. I think it would essentially eliminate teams being bad for the sake of being bad.

I think Ford's suggestion is already an improvement over the current system, but it does still reward losing, even if over a three year period.

The question though, is what happens with the second pick? the third? Are those still based on descending record from last season's results? While this addresses the 1st overall pick, it doesn't mention how the other very valuable low picks are distributed.

[kozlodoev]

Yes, any sort of deterministic drafting system not relying on record eliminates the need for tanking. That's pretty much a truism.

The problem is that it's impossible to reconcile any form of deterministic system with the idea that the best players should go on the worst teams. And given how thin top talent is in the NBA, a single pick in a single year can distort the landscape of the game for years to come.

Not a fan. Chad Ford's idea is simpler and better.

[Who]

I still think they should tie revenue sharing to W-L records. Give a large financial disincentive to teams who try to lose games + a large financial incentive to teams to try and put winning teams out on the floor.

[kozlodoev]

The question though, is what happens with the second pick? the third? Are those still based on descending record from last season's results? While this addresses the 1st overall pick, it doesn't mention how the other very valuable low picks are distributed.

These can easily be based on descending aggregate record from the past three years. It's not much different from the current system, since it all basically goes in reverse order save for the odd chance that an unlikely team lands in the top 3.

And yes, the idea of the draft _is_ to reward weaker teams and, by extension, losing. The whole point is to try to spread talent equally as best as you can.

[nickagneta]

Anything is better than the current system that provides massive incentives for purposely losing for an entire season. I find what some franchises are doing this year, and what the Celtics have done in the past as heinous and a slap in the face to the integrity of the game.

[byennie]

My system is:

30 team lottery
Teams earn 30,29,28 balls every year based on final standings
Lottery balls roll over from year to year
Subtract 30 balls from a team's balance for winning the #1 pick, 29 for #2, etc.
Lottery balls can go negative (no 1st rounder for you)
2nd round starts after all teams with balls pick, and is in reverse order of finish

The worse your team over time, the more chances you get
The luckier you are in the lottery, the fewer chances you get next year
You can trade lottery balls, but not picks

Tanking would become a multi-year affair (as in the Chad Ford scenario), it's fairer the longer you run it, and lottery balls are the only tradable 1st round asset (no more pick protection madness)

[Redz]

The 14 teams that miss the playoffs go into a single elimination tournament. 

The worst record gets the top seed and the best record gets the 14th seed. 

Higher seeds get home court and get to start the game with a lead equal to the difference in seeding.

The 2 worst teams receive a bye into the second round so that there are 8 teams left for round 2

The winner gets the top pick.  Runner up gets 2nd pick.  Semifinalist losers play for the 3rd pick.  The rest fall into traditional order.

Think of the ratings an NBA would get!

[KGs Knee]

The 14 teams that miss the playoffs go into a single elimination tournament. 

The worst record gets the top seed and the best record gets the 14th seed. 

Higher seeds get home court and get to start the game with a lead equal to the difference in seeding.

The 2 worst teams receive a bye into the second round so that there are 8 teams left for round 2

The winner gets the top pick.  Runner up gets 2nd pick.  Semifinalist losers play for the 3rd pick.  The rest fall into traditional order.

Think of the ratings an NBA would get!

Awesome, I like it! Bold.

Instead of competing to win the championship, you compete to win a top pick.

[Quetzalcoatl]

The 14 teams that miss the playoffs go into a single elimination tournament. 

The worst record gets the top seed and the best record gets the 14th seed. 

Higher seeds get home court and get to start the game with a lead equal to the difference in seeding.

The 2 worst teams receive a bye into the second round so that there are 8 teams left for round 2

The winner gets the top pick.  Runner up gets 2nd pick.  Semifinalist losers play for the 3rd pick.  The rest fall into traditional order.

Think of the ratings an NBA would get!

What if say the Cavs won that tournament last year and Kyrie Irving got injured in the last game and was out for this season as a result.  Can you imagine the locker room treatment a player like Bennett would get?  I would feel so bad for draft busts

[bdm860]

I like the idea in theory, but I think it would fall apart pretty quickly in real life and be a disaster.

The players (and agents) would have a field day with this thing, they'd pretty much have total control.  The teams would be at the mercy of the players from Day 1.

Hmmm, Minnesota has the top pick this year, and the Lakers the year after that?  Maybe I'll stay in school one more year.

While maybe it wouldn't happen that often, I think it wouldn't take long for one where a potential transcendent superstar, a sure fire #1 pick decides to go back to school (or play overseas) to avoid being drafted by a certain team and/or to be able to be drafted by the team of their choice.

Now players go pro as soon as possible because 99% of the time they're going to be drafted by a terrible team anyways and they only have a vague idea of who will be drafting around where they're slated to be picked, there's really no way to game that system from a rookies perspective.  But now you're telling me if I hold out a year I can go to an instant contender or one of the premier cities?  Or I know years in advance who will be drafting in my projected range?  This system would be gamed pretty quickly I think, possibly as early as Junior High/High School (think of players staying back, going to prep school, sitting out an extra season to recover from an injury, etc.).

I don't think players would hold out more than a year, and not every player would do this, but it would happen enough to be a problem I think.

[nickagneta]

Here's my proposal:

One 30 team league.

Playoffs are top 16 teams with a regular 7 game series with 1 facing 16 2 facing 15, 3 facing 15 etc. Future seedings can be worked out, I don't care about them.

Of the 14 teams that do no make the playoffs, 9 get to share, along with all 16 playoff seeds in the following years television generated revenue at a full share rate. Those nine teams are put into a non-weighted lottery with equal chance to land a spot, 6-14 in the draft.

The bottom five teams share at a half share rate, in the following year, for any of the television generated revenue. The 2.5 shares of television revenue that are not paid to the bottom five teams(there are 30 original shares, 25 full shares for the top 25 teams, 5 half shares for the bottom fives teams) are split equally amongst the top 25 teams, with each top 25 teams now receiving an extra one tenth share.

Given that this year each team share of the national television revenue is about $30 million, that means if you finish bottom five, you are losing $18 million(the $15 million of a 1/2 share plus the extra $3 million each top 25 team receives as a 1/10th share for finishing in the top 25.

The bottom 5 teams go into a lottery without weights to determine who receives picks 1-5.

This makes teams want to play as well as possible because no team wants to make $18 million less a year for tanking. It also prevents tanking in the two tiers of teams that finish out of the playoff run because your draft position is based purely on a non-weighted lottery.

So tanking becomes a thing of the past and the draft is still maintained with incentives to win until the final week or so of the regular season.

I guess the extra 2.5 shares not going to the bottom five teams could also be distributed equally amongst the playoff teams making the incentive for making the playoffs even greater financially than it already is and prohibiting teams from giving up once they know they are not in the bottom five but want a chance at getting a 6th or 7th pick.

[Who]

I like the idea in theory, but I think it would fall apart pretty quickly in real life and be a disaster.

The players (and agents) would have a field day with this thing, they'd pretty much have total control.  The teams would be at the mercy of the players from Day 1.

Hmmm, Minnesota has the top pick this year, and the Lakers the year after that?  Maybe I'll stay in school one more year.

While maybe it wouldn't happen that often, I think it wouldn't take long for one where a potential transcendent superstar, a sure fire #1 pick decides to go back to school (or play overseas) to avoid being drafted by a certain team and/or to be able to be drafted by the team of their choice.

Now players go pro as soon as possible because 99% of the time they're going to be drafted by a terrible team anyways and they only have a vague idea of who will be drafting around where they're slated to be picked, there's really no way to game that system from a rookies perspective.  But now you're telling me if I hold out a year I can go to an instant contender or one of the premier cities?  Or I know years in advance who will be drafting in my projected range?  This system would be gamed pretty quickly I think, possibly as early as Junior High/High School (think of players staying back, going to prep school, sitting out an extra season to recover from an injury, etc.).

I don't think players would hold out more than a year, and not every player would do this, but it would happen enough to be a problem I think.

They could just make everyone eligible to be drafted one year out of High School.

Take the choice away from the player in deciding when to declare for the draft.

[D.o.s.]

I like the idea in theory, but I think it would fall apart pretty quickly in real life and be a disaster.

The players (and agents) would have a field day with this thing, they'd pretty much have total control.  The teams would be at the mercy of the players from Day 1.

Hmmm, Minnesota has the top pick this year, and the Lakers the year after that?  Maybe I'll stay in school one more year.

While maybe it wouldn't happen that often, I think it wouldn't take long for one where a potential transcendent superstar, a sure fire #1 pick decides to go back to school (or play overseas) to avoid being drafted by a certain team and/or to be able to be drafted by the team of their choice.

Now players go pro as soon as possible because 99% of the time they're going to be drafted by a terrible team anyways and they only have a vague idea of who will be drafting around where they're slated to be picked, there's really no way to game that system from a rookies perspective.  But now you're telling me if I hold out a year I can go to an instant contender or one of the premier cities?  Or I know years in advance who will be drafting in my projected range?  This system would be gamed pretty quickly I think, possibly as early as Junior High/High School (think of players staying back, going to prep school, sitting out an extra season to recover from an injury, etc.).

I don't think players would hold out more than a year, and not every player would do this, but it would happen enough to be a problem I think.

They could just make everyone eligible to be drafted one year out of High School.

Take the choice away from the player in deciding when to declare for the draft.

You really think that the NBA would overturn the Bird Collegiate rules?

No, they wouldn't. And as long as they don't, there's no real way to stop someone from, say, playing overseas for a year because they want to play for the Lakers instead of the Timberwolves.

[SHAQATTACK]

Lottery picks can not be traded to Lakers for NOTHING... This maddening .  ...this one team ....screws up the whole NBA ....otherwise it would be pretty fair.

You win a lottery player .....keep him and play for a champion ship ,   Trade him and you pick at back of the lottery......

The Lakers simply reload off go the SAME do nothing teams that are in the  Lottery every year......waiting for th moron Cavs, Magic, Raptors or Grizzlies to develope someone and trade them off to LA.

You should not be allowed to have he dang lottery pick more than one or two times in a row .......if you get first pick......then next year you pick behind the NBA champion.

[Eddie20]

You should not be allowed to have he dang lottery pick more than one or two times in a row .......if you get first pick......then next year you pick behind the NBA champion.

That's great if you land Anthony Davis, but what if you draft Anthony Bennett?