2023 Draft Tiers

[CFAN38]

A more optimistic comp for Jordan Hawkins would be JJ Redick.

Another small SG at 6-3/6-4. Short arms. Lightweight build. Took Redick a few years to get going in the NBA - to learn how to defend at the NBA level. Then another few years to learn how to create in PnRs.

Their sophomore stats are very similar.

JJ Redick: 15.9ppg 3.1rpg 1.6apg
J Hawkins: 16.2ppg 3.8rpg 1.3apg

Both guys finished with 26/27 steals in 37 games played. JJ had only 2-3 blocks a season all 4 years. Hawkins actually had 19 blocks his sophomore year. Redick had 70 turnovers. Hawkins only 50.

The FGA was 407 for Redick at 42% vs 450 at 41% for Hawkins. The 3PTA was 258 for Redick at 39.5% for 281 for Hawkins at 38.8%. 150 FTA for Redick at 95% vs 141 FTA at 89% for Hawkins.

Eerily similar.

Redick went on to average 22ppg as a junior and 27ppg as a senior. Then two years of not playing much before working himself into the rotation as a bench player in his 3rd NBA season. It was his 6th season before he started to make a claim for himself as a starting caliber SG in the NBA. So that is 8 years after sophomore season of hard work and development to get to that point.

For me its not so much that I'm low on Hawkins but I'm just low on smaller pure shooting guard type players in todays NBA. I have George, Bufkin, and Smith Jr all tiered ahead of Hawkins because I can see a path for them as combo guards. On the right team that utilizes Hawkins as a movement shooter ala JJ Redick he is going to be a good NBA player but if not he because a potential target for defenses without bringing enough offensive value to warrant covering for him on D. 

[CFAN38]

I'm debating updating my Tiers after my latest draft hot take / philosophical question...

So tossing the cliche of race based comps to the side I am having an internal debating regarding how to rank Grady Dick. I currently have him ranked #14 in the middle of my 6th tier between Cason Wallace and Keyonte George. I am debating dropping him a tier towards the end of the first round based on positional/role replacement value.

Grady Dick is projected high first and mostly for his combination of size and shooting. Looking around the NBA for similar role and physical comps I come up with D Robinson, Max Struss, Sam Hauser. All three of these players went undrafted. In this draft B Sheppard is projected as a late 1st-early 2nd, Joe Hauser is projected to go undrafted, and Hunter Tyson is projected to go undrafted and all 3 project in the NBA into the same role as Dick.

One can argue age with these other players being older and Dick being 19 but looking back at the Hausers, Robinson and Tyson their shooting percentages didn't improve over the course of their college careers. These players like Dick came into college as elite shooters (around 40% from 3 and 80+% from FT) and remained at that level.

So the question is where does Grady Dick improve as a player to make him worth drafting 50 picks ahead of J Hauser or Hunter Tyson and 20 picks ahead of Sheppard? If I was the GM of a lottery team I would have to look really hard at the ceiling of Dick compared to other players in that range knowing that I can likely buy my way into the 50s to pick up a traditional floor spacing wing. For a GM in the 20s the safety of drafting Dick becomes a positive as he can plug in to a more established roster as a role player without the pressure of being a transcendent player associated with the lottery.       

[Who]

Is Anthony Black another Josh Giddey type player?

[gouki88]

This may be a strange question, but how does Jarace Walker compare to Grant Williams?

I see J Walker measured in at 6-6 and a half inch. So close to Grant Williams size. Both physical muscular defenders. I have read that J Walker does not have high level lateral quickness. That is what got me thinking of Grant.

Their NCAA stats show some similarities from Grant's freshman year to J Walker's freshman year. Both around 12ppg 6rpg. Both around 1spg (1.0 Jarace to 0.8 Grant). Walker 1.5bpg Grant 1.9bpg. Walker has better AST:TO at 1.8:1.5 compared to Grant's 1.1:1.9 AST:TO.

Grant shot a better FG% (50% to 46%), a better 3PT% at 37.5% to 34.6% but on lower volume at 1 attempt per game vs 2.8 for J Walker. Grant got the FT line much more often with 5.9 FTAs per game vs only 2.2 FTA for J Walker. That is a shockingly low number for a physical NBA big forward. 2.2 FTAs in college? That is low. Both guys shot 66% FT%.

There is a difference in strength of schedule. I do not use this number so I do not know whether high or low is better but there is a big difference. J Walker 4.79 vs Grant 10.18. Does this mean Grant played a tougher schedule or J Walker played a tougher schedule?


Edit: Grant Williams measured 6 foot 5 and three quarters without shoes. So he is 3/4ers of an inch shorter than Jarace Walker. Similar height slightly smaller. Big difference in wingspan. You said Jarace Walker was 7-2. Grant was only 6-9 and three quarters. So 4 inches extra in length. Big difference.

Interestingly though they both have the same standing reach at 8 foot 8 and a half inches despite the large difference in wingspan.

First I just want to point out you have to be careful using standing reach as a comparative measurement. I don't want to dive deep into it right now but if you look back at combine vertical leap stats and then look at the standing reaches of the top performers you will notice they are suspiciously low. Its not difficult to not fully stretch and shed a few inches of your reach thus helping the max vertical measurement.

Grant Williams standing reach 8'8.5" max vert 31", the apex of his reach jumping is 11.29'

Walkers standing reach is also 8'8.5" max vert 38", the apex of his reach jumping is 11.87'


Overall I think Walker and Grant is a good comparison and represents the role Walker will likely play in the NBA. If Grant had a 4" longer wingspan and was slightly more explosive how would be be as an NBA player? How high would that upgraded version of Grant go in the draft?

Paul Millsap type?

[gouki88]

I'm debating updating my Tiers after my latest draft hot take / philosophical question...

So tossing the cliche of race based comps to the side I am having an internal debating regarding how to rank Grady Dick. I currently have him ranked #14 in the middle of my 6th tier between Cason Wallace and Keyonte George. I am debating dropping him a tier towards the end of the first round based on positional/role replacement value.

Grady Dick is projected high first and mostly for his combination of size and shooting. Looking around the NBA for similar role and physical comps I come up with D Robinson, Max Struss, Sam Hauser. All three of these players went undrafted. In this draft B Sheppard is projected as a late 1st-early 2nd, Joe Hauser is projected to go undrafted, and Hunter Tyson is projected to go undrafted and all 3 project in the NBA into the same role as Dick.

One can argue age with these other players being older and Dick being 19 but looking back at the Hausers, Robinson and Tyson their shooting percentages didn't improve over the course of their college careers. These players like Dick came into college as elite shooters (around 40% from 3 and 80+% from FT) and remained at that level.

So the question is where does Grady Dick improve as a player to make him worth drafting 50 picks ahead of J Hauser or Hunter Tyson and 20 picks ahead of Sheppard? If I was the GM of a lottery team I would have to look really hard at the ceiling of Dick compared to other players in that range knowing that I can likely buy my way into the 50s to pick up a traditional floor spacing wing. For a GM in the 20s the safety of drafting Dick becomes a positive as he can plug in to a more established roster as a role player without the pressure of being a transcendent player associated with the lottery.       

I think Dick is much more athletic than any of your comparisons. Also more skilled with ball in hand, and plays better defence in the passing lanes.

I recently saw him compared to Cam Johnson. I like that comparison

[Who]

I'm debating updating my Tiers after my latest draft hot take / philosophical question...

So tossing the cliche of race based comps to the side I am having an internal debating regarding how to rank Grady Dick. I currently have him ranked #14 in the middle of my 6th tier between Cason Wallace and Keyonte George. I am debating dropping him a tier towards the end of the first round based on positional/role replacement value.

Grady Dick is projected high first and mostly for his combination of size and shooting. Looking around the NBA for similar role and physical comps I come up with D Robinson, Max Struss, Sam Hauser. All three of these players went undrafted. In this draft B Sheppard is projected as a late 1st-early 2nd, Joe Hauser is projected to go undrafted, and Hunter Tyson is projected to go undrafted and all 3 project in the NBA into the same role as Dick.

One can argue age with these other players being older and Dick being 19 but looking back at the Hausers, Robinson and Tyson their shooting percentages didn't improve over the course of their college careers. These players like Dick came into college as elite shooters (around 40% from 3 and 80+% from FT) and remained at that level.

So the question is where does Grady Dick improve as a player to make him worth drafting 50 picks ahead of J Hauser or Hunter Tyson and 20 picks ahead of Sheppard? If I was the GM of a lottery team I would have to look really hard at the ceiling of Dick compared to other players in that range knowing that I can likely buy my way into the 50s to pick up a traditional floor spacing wing. For a GM in the 20s the safety of drafting Dick becomes a positive as he can plug in to a more established roster as a role player without the pressure of being a transcendent player associated with the lottery.       

I think Dick is much more athletic than any of your comparisons. Also more skilled with ball in hand, and plays better defence in the passing lanes.

I recently saw him compared to Cam Johnson. I like that comparison

I think of Mike Dunleavy Jr. That big SF with high level shooting and good speed.

I really like Gradey Dick. He is a near certainty to be a good starting SF in the league for 10+ years. He is one of my favourite guys after the main 3 big names.

[Who]

That guy Jett Howard looked interesting while they were talking about how good his offense is but his defense looks awful. Too slow to defend quick guards and too weak to defend physical forwards. Does not look like there is anyone he can effectively defend.

He is going to have a lot of work to do on his defensive fundamentals and on his body before he is ready to play NBA minutes. He may never be ready for the NBA.

He should've stayed in college. He'd have a better shot in the NBA with more development prior to arriving in the NBA. He is not ready.

[Who]

Tier 1 = Wemby
Tier 2 = Scoot & B Miller
Tier 3 = G Dick, Taylor Hendricks, C Wallace

Question mark = Cam Whitmore. Undecided.

Not drafting = Thompson Bros. Beating up on low level competition. No idea how good these guys actually are. Not using a lotto pick on either one of them.

Keyontae Johnson is in tier 3 if his heart checks out. Top 10 pick.

Tier 4 = A Black, J Walker, L Miller, D Lively


They are the guys I like. 10 guys plus Keyontae Johnson 11. And the Cam Whitmore guy I haven't made up my mind on. I am leaning towards him in tier 4 rather than tier 3. Maybe tier 5. Too much bust potential. I am much more comfortable with the other 3 guys in Tier 3 being reliable pros than I am with Whitmore.

[gouki88]

Tier 1 = Wemby
Tier 2 = Scoot & B Miller
Tier 3 = G Dick, Taylor Hendricks, C Wallace

Question mark = Cam Whitmore. Undecided.

Not drafting = Thompson Bros. Beating up on low level competition. No idea how good these guys actually are. Not using a lotto pick on either one of them.

Keyontae Johnson is in tier 3 if his heart checks out. Top 10 pick.

Tier 4 = A Black, J Walker, L Miller, D Lively


They are the guys I like. 10 guys plus Keyontae Johnson 11. And the Cam Whitmore guy I haven't made up my mind on. I am leaning towards him in tier 4 rather than tier 3. Maybe tier 5. Too much bust potential. I am much more comfortable with the other 3 guys in Tier 3 being reliable pros than I am with Whitmore.

I have no idea what Whitmore will be. Miles Bridges type super athlete?

[DefenseWinsChamps]

Tier 1 = Wemby
Tier 2 = Scoot & B Miller
Tier 3 = G Dick, Taylor Hendricks, C Wallace

Question mark = Cam Whitmore. Undecided.

Not drafting = Thompson Bros. Beating up on low level competition. No idea how good these guys actually are. Not using a lotto pick on either one of them.

Keyontae Johnson is in tier 3 if his heart checks out. Top 10 pick.

Tier 4 = A Black, J Walker, L Miller, D Lively


They are the guys I like. 10 guys plus Keyontae Johnson 11. And the Cam Whitmore guy I haven't made up my mind on. I am leaning towards him in tier 4 rather than tier 3. Maybe tier 5. Too much bust potential. I am much more comfortable with the other 3 guys in Tier 3 being reliable pros than I am with Whitmore.

I have no idea what Whitmore will be. Miles Bridges type super athlete?

When I watched him, I thought of Corey Maggette, but with more aggressive defense. I felt justified when I saw that's what KOC suggested.

Saddiq Bey with defense?

[Who]

Corey Maggette had 4 FTAs to 6.7 FGAs a game in only 17.7mpg in college. Great ratio of FTs to FGs. A 59% FT rate. He also averaged double the amount of assists as Whitmore (1.5 to 0.7) despite playing only 17.7mpg vs 27mpg.

Jaylen Brown had 6.4 FTAs to 11.1 FGAs. A 57% FTr. About 3 times as many assists as Whitmore (2.0 to 0.7) in the same minutes per game.

Whitmore was only 2.5 FTAs to 9.8 FGAs for a 25% FTr. I expect an NBA athlete, heck a great athlete of his caliber, to get to the FT line more than that.

It is confounding. I don't know what to make of that.


I wonder is it just that Whitmore took a lot of threes. He averaged 4.2 threes per game out of his 9.8 FGAs. So let's say two point field goals only so 5.6 FGs to 2.5 FTs since you rarely get fouled on 3s. A 45% FTr.

Jaylen took 3 threes on 11.1 FGs so 8.1 FGs for 6.4 FTs. A 79% FTr.

Maggette took 2.2 threes on his 6.7 FGs so only 4.5 FGs relative to his 4.0 FTs. Almost a 1:1 ratio of FT to FG. A 89% FTr.

That does look better for Whitmore but still nowhere close to the foul drawing machine of Maggette or even Jaylen Brown.


Miles Bridges is interesting. He had a similar FTr as Whitmore at 25%. He also took around 40% of his shots from 3 like Whitmore.

Interestingly, his block and steal rates are reversed where he is high in blocks and good in steals compared to Whitmore being high in steals and good in blocks. If you add both steal rate and block rates together, both guys add up to 4.8%.

Bridges had a better rebound rate as a freshman but declined as a sophomore and was then similar to Whitmore.

Whitmore's steal rate is very impressive. 3.2%.

[Who]

Is Stephon Marbury a better comp for Scoot Henderson than guys like D-Rose or R Westbrook?

Marbury a strong athlete but not a freak athlete. Scoot has moments where he looks like a freak athlete but lots of others were he doesn't. I don't know what to make of that. And if he is not a freak athlete, does that downgrade his ceiling more to a Stephon Marbury level = All-Star talent rather than top 10 player.

[gouki88]

Is Stephon Marbury a better comp for Scoot Henderson than guys like D-Rose or R Westbrook?

Marbury a strong athlete but not a freak athlete. Scoot has moments where he looks like a freak athlete but lots of others were he doesn't. I don't know what to make of that. And if he is not a freak athlete, does that downgrade his ceiling more to a Stephon Marbury level = All-Star talent rather than top 10 player.

I don't think so. I think equating Scoot not going 100% all the time with not being a freak athlete is wrong. I think it is actually reflective of a deeper understanding of how to use his athleticism. His change of pace is incredible, alongside an outrageous vertical pop.

I haven't seen any games where I've thought he doesn't look like a freak athlete myself. He has explosive moments, but then won't necessarily force the issue. I think he's more in-control than guys like Westbrook and Rose were initially, but no less athletic.

[boscel33]

Notes:

My Tier 7 needs to be broken up but for now I put it out as a large group.


For the Celtics I see three logical avenues.
1. Target a big to develop behind the current vets. Jackson-Davis is my favorite for this approach. I have also recently become very high on the idea of Leonard Miller as a Kevon Looney like 5 but this likely requires a trade up.
2. Draft a wing who can contribute early in his career. Lewis, K Johnson, Podziemski and C Jones would all be options.
3. Play the long game and target a developmental "predraft" wing. This class has a number of highly rated HS recruits who under-performed and could be available at 35. GG Jackson, Whitehead, Walsh, Livingston, Mitchell and Phillips all fit this mold. Cissoko is also an option but he maybe more NBA ready then the listed players.

I expect teams will very greatly in how they rank the players 8 through the mid 20s.

 

I don't think Jackson-Davis will still be around at 35.  I think they need to go Big though, that's why I'm on the Adama Sanogo bandwagon.  he has a 7'3" wingspan at 6'7" tall.  He improved his game during his three years at UConn and was the NCAA Tournament MVP.  Coming out of High School , he was a consensus 4-star player.  I'm tired of drafting wings/shooters that don't work.  Let's get a big to help RWill and Al.

[Who]

Does Julian Phillips strong FT% 82% convince you guys he can become a good shooter in the NBA?

He seems to have a similar profile to Tari Eason in terms of athleticism & defense and rebounding. Philips non-FT shooting numbers are very worrying however.

Is he a guy you buy on? A mid first like Eason? Higher? Or less upside than Eason?

He does seem a good bet if available with our early 2nd round pick. Some mocks have him as a mid 2nd rounder. So he may be available for our pick.