Celtics' hard decisions in luxury tax battle: Hollinger from the Athletic

[rocknrollforyoursoul]

This team is absolutely putrid at guarding perimeter scoring

I disagree with you there. I think our defense was number one at defending the three-pointer.

Yeah I don't understand how a person could conclude that after watching the team.  Perimeter defense was one of the team's most obvious strengths.

For the season overall, yes, but to my eye they often struggled with this in the playoffs.

[Moranis]

I love Tatum, but he isn't Dirk (at least not yet). 

True.

All the same, Tatum showed this year that he can play like a super duper star for stretches:

30.7 pts, 7.9 reb, 3.2 ast on 63.7% TS in February (12 games)

In the playoffs against Philly:

27 pts, 9.8 reb, 2.5 ast, 2.3 blks on 60.7% TS (4 games)

In the playoffs against Toronto:

24.3 pts, 10.3 reb, 5.3 ast, 1.0 stl on 55.3% TS (7 games)


He struggled a bit, arguably, against Miami, but still put up:

26.5 pts, 9.8 reb, 6.3 ast, 1.3 stl, 1.2 blk on 54.7% TS (6 games)



Here is where we put the obligatory "He's only 22 years old!"


He's already very, very, very good.  It's reasonable to expect him to improve -- indeed, it would be unreasonable to expect that he won't improve.

In particular I think he has a lot of room to grow as a closer.  He showed he could carry the team for stretches this year; the next step is to show that he can take over a game and put an opponent away in the fourth quarter whenever the team needs him to do it, not just sometimes.

Sure and he will get better, but even Dirk wasn't much different that season than his prior runs.  They were quite lucky with matchups and what not.  It wasn't a fluke, per se, but there is a reason the Mavs never came close after that and only had 1 other Finals and just 1 other WCF appearance in Dirk's entire career.  Now I do think Tatum can be a bit more impactful than Dirk because he is a better defender, but he isn't there yet and he won't be next year. 

You can certainly disagree, but come next summer you will just be disappointed again if you think Boston has a realistic shot at winning a title.

The C's are +1200 for the title next year behind the Lakers, Clippers, Bucks, Warriors, Nets, and Heat.  That seems about right, 4th best odds in the East and 7th best odds overall.  They are just ahead of the Raptors, and then you have Nuggets, Mavs, Rockets, and Sixers - all of which you could reasonably see having better seasons than Boston but who probably shouldn't have better title odds (especially the western teams).  And you could really only see Boston having a better season than Miami of the teams that currently have better odds (this is of course assuming reasonable health from all teams - injuries change everything). 

Unless Tatum takes a massive jump and is in the conversation as a top 5 player, Boston just isn't a realistic contender next year and it shouldn't act like one. 

I just don't think a team that has those sort of odds should be thinking it is a title contender, nor acting like one, because it isn't. 

[GreenCoffeeBean]

This team is absolutely putrid at guarding perimeter scoring

I disagree with you there. I think our defense was number one at defending the three-pointer.

Yeah I don't understand how a person could conclude that after watching the team.  Perimeter defense was one of the team's most obvious strengths.

For the season overall, yes, but to my eye they often struggled with this in the playoffs.

Yes, exactly. And we all know that the playoffs are a much better indicator of your strengths and weaknesses than the regular season.

[PhoSita]

You can certainly disagree, but come next summer you will just be disappointed again if you think Boston has a realistic shot at winning a title.

I've been saying all over the place that you need to be able to enjoy being a fan of this team whether or not they win a title.

If they show improvement, play hard, give us some beautiful basketball to watch, notch some satisfying victories, and go as far as they can reasonably go ... no regrets.


My entire point is that you're probably right -- they're never going to be one of the odds on favorites to win it all.

So what? Give up?  Keep shuffling assets around in the hopes of trading for Giannis or whoever the next disgruntled star happens to be?

I'm sick of that never ending shell game.  I think it wears on the players, too.  Big time.

No thanks, I say.  I'd rather invest my energy in enjoying the team and seeing what happens.


If your criteria for enjoyment as a fan is following a team that is a favorite to win the title I think you'll be much better off becoming one of these people who is a fan of specific players, e.g. people who root for whatever team LeBron is on.  The odds are gonna tend to be in your favor, in that case.

[Roy H.]

This team is absolutely putrid at guarding perimeter scoring

I disagree with you there. I think our defense was number one at defending the three-pointer.

Yeah I don't understand how a person could conclude that after watching the team.  Perimeter defense was one of the team's most obvious strengths.

For the season overall, yes, but to my eye they often struggled with this in the playoffs.

Yes, exactly. And we all know that the playoffs are a much better indicator of your strengths and weaknesses than the regular season.

If I am reading this correctly, we gave up the fewest number of three-pointers per game in the playoffs, and kept opponents to the lowest percentage.

https://stats.nba.com/teams/defense-dash-3pt/?sort=FG3M&dir=-1

[Moranis]

You can certainly disagree, but come next summer you will just be disappointed again if you think Boston has a realistic shot at winning a title.

I've been saying all over the place that you need to be able to enjoy being a fan of this team whether or not they win a title.

If they show improvement, play hard, give us some beautiful basketball to watch, notch some satisfying victories, and go as far as they can reasonably go ... no regrets.


My entire point is that you're probably right -- they're never going to be one of the odds on favorites to win it all.

So what? Give up?  Keep shuffling assets around in the hopes of trading for Giannis or whoever the next disgruntled star happens to be?

I'm sick of that never ending shell game.  I think it wears on the players, too.  Big time.

No thanks, I say.  I'd rather invest my energy in enjoying the team and seeing what happens.


If your criteria for enjoyment as a fan is following a team that is a favorite to win the title I think you'll be much better off becoming one of these people who is a fan of specific players, e.g. people who root for whatever team LeBron is on.  The odds are gonna tend to be in your favor, in that case.

I said if you think Boston is a realistic contender you will be disappointed.  If you don't think they are, then you should absolutely enjoy the ride, just as I did this season.  It was a fun season on the whole, but I never expected Boston to win the title, so I wasn't disappointed when the team didn't even make the finals.  I loved the run to the ECF and the growth from Tatum and Brown.  I admittedly got a little hopeful when Miami knocked off Milwaukee as I thought that opened the door for another finals appearance (and thus was a little let down at the loss), but at the end of the day, I underestimated just how good Miami was (and I almost would have rather not lost to the Lakers which almost certainly would have happened).  I shouldn't have underestimated Miami, I mean they had the best player in the series in Butler, had a very deep well put together squad, and had the better coach (Spo is really good, it doesn't mean I think Stevens is bad - he is not, he is a good coach).