Celtics' hard decisions in luxury tax battle: Hollinger from the Athletic

[RodyTur10]

Do nothing and just let Hayward leave at the end of the season and try to get below the luxury tax level the following year (2021-22 season) has become more difficult now that Tatum will get 5% more of the cap due to his All NBA selection (can we protest that?)

Protest what? The team offering him the 30% max, and instead signing him for 25% (or somewhere in between)? Or are you saying the team should protest the NBA for the CBA making him eligible?

No one is forcing us to sign Tatum for the 30% max, but it would irreparably damage the relationship if we didn't offer it (ditto if we tried to get the league and player's association to agree to CBA changes just to avoid paying Tatum what he's earned)

It was a joke (sorry for not making that clear). Couldn't they just have picked Middleton, Lowry or Adebayo for that 3rd team?

I'm with Moranis on this. Maybe that's just my natural pessimistic view on things. I believe the Celtics are in the mix in the weak East. I mean we know beforehand that Atlanta, Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, Detroit, New York, Orlando and Washington are not going to be a factor unless something unforeseen happens.

Milwaukee is still a tier above us. We don't know what Philadelphia, Miami, Brooklyn, Toronto and Indiana are going to do, but we shouldn't necessarily be afraid of them. But I just don't see the moves available for the Celtics to upgrade Walker and/or Hayward and the bench to rise above them. Don't forget that Golden State will be back as well.

Take a step back to make two steps forward.

Building this team around Tatum and Brown was not Plan A.  Danny clearly wanted to try for a title with Kyrie, Hayward, and Horford.

I guess so. Maybe that's why he kept faith in the roster last season despite everything falling apart in the locker room and later also on the court. Even in hindsight that rotation was very good with few weaknesses on paper:

Irving/Rozier - Brown/Smart - Tatum/Hayward - Horford/Morris - Baynes/Theis

Just never really materialized on the court  .

[Moranis]

Is Boston really good enough to win a title?

With the right supporting cast and some luck, yes.

Tatum has hit that zone where he can put up 30 / 10 / 5 on efficient scoring over the course of a playoff series or even an entire playoff run. 



Once you have a guy like that in place it's a matter of having the right supporting cast, earning a favorable route to the Finals, and enjoying some luck with injuries.


I see the Celts in that Mavericks zone where they are never going to be the favorite, but if their best player gets really hot and some things go their way, they can make the Finals and have a chance to win a hard fought series.

How many people thought of Dirk Nowitzki as a top 5 player in the league before the 2011 playoff began?  I think people generally thought of him a superstar player who was in the top 10 discussion but not among the uppermost tier.  That didn't matter because during the four series the Mavs won on the way to the title, Dirk was the best player in the world.

A similiar thing happened with Paul Pierce in 08, although KG was obviously a huge component and better than anybody playing next to Dirk on that Mavs team.


Name of the game now is to maximize the team around Tatum and keep him happy and under contract for as long as possible.

I love Tatum, but he isn't Dirk (at least not yet).  Dirk won the MVP in 07 and had been performing consistently for years before 2011 (including leading a separate team to the Finals and the 11th straight season of 50+ wins).  He was 2nd Team All NBA and finished 6th in MVP in 11.
 It isn't like he came out of nowhere or that it was something he hadn't been doing for years.  Dirk was at the tail end of his prime, but yeah played above his station that entire post season.  That just isn't Boston's situation next year.  The young guys aren't established like that.  They haven't matured and learned the tricks of the trade. 

Pierce wasn't any better in 08 than he was in any of his prior post season runs.  Even in shooting efficiency he wasn't really any better (in fact 04-05 was by far his most efficient scoring post season ever).  Pierce quite simply got a top 5 player as his teammate.  That is what matters.  You need a top 5 guy (or someone very close like Dirk).  Sure sometimes a team will win without a top 5 guy, but those teams either have two top 10ish players or 4 or 5 top 25ish players.  That isn't going to be Boston next year.  Even if Tatum cracks the top 10 next year, Brown and Walker aren't going to be good enough as a 2nd and 3rd to make up the gap on the teams that have the top 5ish players, especially when several of those top 5ish guys have a 2nd option as good as Brown/Walker (like Giannis/Middleton, Durant/Irving, and of course the two LA's - not to mention Miami or Philly). 

Boston has no reasonable way to add to the team in a way that is going to elevate the team into the class of those other teams.  They have very little trade assets, are in the tax (which limits trading and free agency), and mediocre draft capital.  Tatum is at least a couple of seasons out from really being able to be the guy we hope he can be (and even then unless your Lebron you really do need a solid team around you to even make the finals).

My whole point is Ainge should have been maximizing Tatum's championship window for years.  He shouldn't be trading assets, wasting cap space, etc. on players that aren't going to help Boston win a championship, and that is what he has been doing.  Ainge's greatest failure was not trading for Irving, it was trading for Irving and then not going all in around Irving.  Once he made the trade for Irving, he should have moved Brown for Leonard or something like that.  This is what I was getting at with him trying to win and build for the future, that just doesn't work.  Boston has a championship right now if Ainge moved Brown for Leonard.  Boston may not have a title right now, but adding that 8th pick to Tatum/Brown would set the team up much better for that going forward especially since there wouldn't have been a luxury tax season (and that is even if Ainge took Bridges instead of SGA).

[Sophomore]

Trade Jaylen, Langford, all of our picks this year and our 2022 pick and 2024 pick for Giannis on his supermax. Win titles 18-22 over the next 5-8 years with the Giannis/Tatum/Smart Big 3, in the process raking in far more revenue than GS during their recent dynasty, and the tax suddenly does not matter because you’re a dynasty rolling in record-breaking revenue with your cheerful superstars Giannis/Tatum that are loved throughout every corner of America and the rest of the world. It’s the no-brainer marriage for Giannis and the Celtics, much like AD and the Lakers last year. The NBA would love it because it’s the perfect contrast to Hollywood LeBron and AD.

Or stick on this treadmill and be lucky to break even after all of the taxes...anybody who thinks Jaylen, Langford and those picks are going to amount to more than Giannis is just being absurd. Strike now, do the backdoor shenanigans just like the Lakers did with AD, and get Giannis to force the Bucks’ hand.

Giannis has a pretty good team around him the past two years; where are his titles? He’s too one-dimensional to dominate in the playoffs. This Celtics team was awfully close to a title this year. If the coin flip had gone different and Boston picked Herro instead of Miami, I think we would have seen a Lakers-Celtics final. Or if the injury bug didn’t bite Kemba and Gordon. This team needs another year of development from its young players and another couple of role players to contend.

[Moranis]

if your goal is a championship you have to pay the luxury tax. If that is what ownership is worrying about then clearly a championship is not the #1 goal.

False dilemma. You also want to be sure that you have a championship-caliber team when you commit to the luxury tax, otherwise you've limited and hurt your flexible to improve your team.

Exactly -- you need to be prepared to pay the luxury tax when your team is good enough to win a title.

The Celts are in that zone.

Play too stingy right now and they won't be in that zone for long, because Tatum will start eyeing the door and we know what happens when superstars decide they might rather play elsewhere.

Is Boston really good enough to win a title?  Even assuming Tatum continues his upward progression, is he going to really jump up into that top 5 player discussion that he really needs to be in, for Boston to really be a true and legit contender.  Even if he does, is him with Brown, Walker, and a bunch of role players (or super injury prone players like Hayward) and an otherwise ill fitting roster really going to compete with the LA's, Milwaukee, Brooklyn, etc. next year.  I mean even if Tatum takes a huge leap is he going to be better than Davis, Lebron, Giannis, or Kawhi next year?  What about Durant or Curry or Harden?  Is he even going to be better than Embiid, Simmons, George, Butler?  Is Boston going to be better than Denver?  What about Philly with a coaching upgrade like Doc (and still having two top 15 players)?  Presumably, Bam, Herro, and Robinson are all going to be better putting Miami right there again?

I honestly don't see Boston realistically competing for a title next year, which is why Boston should be looking to really and truly build around Tatum and Brown, something Ainge has consistently not done.  He has continued his trend of trying to win now by sacrificing the future.  And by doing that he has significantly harmed the championship window of a team built around Tatum and Brown.  I just worry that when Tatum and Brown are truly good enough to lead a team to a title, the cupboards are just going to be too bare and the team will be too hamstrung financially that it won't be able to effectively build a team around the stars and that the stars just won't be collectively good enough for it to not matter (Lebron is probably the only player in history where supporting cast doesn't really matter, he is truly a unicorn in that regard).  The Danny Ainge philosophy of the last 5 or 6 years of trying to have your cake and eat it too, just isn't working.  It has been time for him to make a decision for years, he has to do it this off season or he should retire.  This really is the last point in time before it is too late.

It's funny how every team is a contender but the Celtics despite having two stars. It's amazing how good things don't apply to them.

Best case Tatum is around 10th and Brown around 15th next year.  I will give you Miami just made the Finals with that sort of arrangement, but that is rare and no one believed Miami had any shot against the Lakers (and why wouldn't Miami be better than Boston next year, it isn't like they are old, I mean they had 3 rookies get huge minutes in the playoffs and Bam has the same experience as Tatum).  Seriously, look at the Finals teams historically.  The vast majority of them, even the losers, have a top 5ish player on their roster and many of them have that guy and a top 10ish guy (if not 2 top 5 guys like the Lakers this year).  The few that don't, often have a former top 5 caliber player and several other HOF level players on the team (like the Spurs once TD got old and before Kawhi ascended).

Boston will be a good team next year, but Tatum won't be good enough yet to be the anchor of a team that is a real contender.  I absolutely believe he can be that guy, it just won't be next year. 

[rocknrollforyoursoul]

Is Boston really good enough to win a title?

With the right supporting cast and some luck, yes.

Tatum has hit that zone where he can put up 30 / 10 / 5 on efficient scoring over the course of a playoff series or even an entire playoff run. 



Once you have a guy like that in place it's a matter of having the right supporting cast, earning a favorable route to the Finals, and enjoying some luck with injuries.


I see the Celts in that Mavericks zone where they are never going to be the favorite, but if their best player gets really hot and some things go their way, they can make the Finals and have a chance to win a hard fought series.

How many people thought of Dirk Nowitzki as a top 5 player in the league before the 2011 playoff began?  I think people generally thought of him a superstar player who was in the top 10 discussion but not among the uppermost tier.  That didn't matter because during the four series the Mavs won on the way to the title, Dirk was the best player in the world.

A similiar thing happened with Paul Pierce in 08, although KG was obviously a huge component and better than anybody playing next to Dirk on that Mavs team.


Name of the game now is to maximize the team around Tatum and keep him happy and under contract for as long as possible.

Here's the rub, and what I see as the long-term problem: If you are correct, then the best the Cs (and we fans) can realistically hope for is one title? And getting even that one title will take a lot of lucky breaks?

For me, that's the issue: Scheme and plan til the cows come home, and if everything goes well, the Celtics get 1 title every 10-20 years; meanwhile the Lakers get whoever they want, because it's Los Angeles and everyone wants to play there. Consequently, it might not be long before the Lakers leave the Celtics in the dust in terms of title count.

[Big333223]

Didn't I read that these Celtics were something like the 3rd youngest ECF team in history? And they can run this team back next season if they want.

Marginal improvements from Tatum and Brown (which I expect) plus Kemba settling into his role plus Hayward in a contract year plus Grant and Timelord growing and then there's whatever we get out of Langford and whatever can be made out of the draft picks.

I'd love to see some tweaking to shore up the center position but I'm really looking forward to next season.

[PhoSita]

I love Tatum, but he isn't Dirk (at least not yet). 

True.

All the same, Tatum showed this year that he can play like a super duper star for stretches:

30.7 pts, 7.9 reb, 3.2 ast on 63.7% TS in February (12 games)

In the playoffs against Philly:

27 pts, 9.8 reb, 2.5 ast, 2.3 blks on 60.7% TS (4 games)

In the playoffs against Toronto:

24.3 pts, 10.3 reb, 5.3 ast, 1.0 stl on 55.3% TS (7 games)


He struggled a bit, arguably, against Miami, but still put up:

26.5 pts, 9.8 reb, 6.3 ast, 1.3 stl, 1.2 blk on 54.7% TS (6 games)



Here is where we put the obligatory "He's only 22 years old!"


He's already very, very, very good.  It's reasonable to expect him to improve -- indeed, it would be unreasonable to expect that he won't improve.

In particular I think he has a lot of room to grow as a closer.  He showed he could carry the team for stretches this year; the next step is to show that he can take over a game and put an opponent away in the fourth quarter whenever the team needs him to do it, not just sometimes.

[PhoSita]

Here's the rub, and what I see as the long-term problem: If you are correct, then the best the Cs (and we fans) can realistically hope for is one title? And getting even that one title will take a lot of lucky breaks?

For me, that's the issue: Scheme and plan til the cows come home, and if everything goes well, the Celtics get 1 title every 10-20 years; meanwhile the Lakers get whoever they want, because it's Los Angeles and everyone wants to play there. Consequently, it might not be long before the Lakers leave the Celtics in the dust in terms of title count.

That's kinda how the league works.  You're not going to forge a "dynasty" unless you have the good fortune of having one of the generational superstars (i.e. multiple MVPs) under contract for 4-5 years and you also manage to put multiple All-Star talents next to him.

I suggest setting aside any hopes of keeping up with Lakers title counts or whatever.  The Lakers have shown us that they can be an absolute dumpster fire and they will always recover because superstar players will continue to want to play in LA.  It is what is. 

Jealousy is the thief of joy.


I think winning 50-60 games, competing deep into the playoffs, and maybe winning 1-2 titles over the course of 5-10 years sounds pretty great. 


Even a team like Milwaukee that managed to draft one of the current generational talents doesn't seem especially likely to do better than one title, at this point. 


Do the Warriors have more than 1-2 titles with Curry if not for the unusual cap spike circumstance leading to Durant going there for a few years?  My guess is no.

The way the league is set up, even if a team does everything right and builds up a quality team around a youngish superstar, the best you're likely to do is 1-2 titles and maybe slightly more Finals appearances, with plenty of regular season and playoff wins over a period of 5-8 years.


This is a big part of why I'm out here saying to anybody who will listen that "championship or bust" as a fan mentality is guaranteed to leave you feeling empty and disappointed.


Outside of Boston, how many fanbases would look at the prospect of winning a title and being among the best teams in the league over a half decade or more and call that disappointing?

Were Detroit fans unhappy with the Isiah Thomas run that led to back to back titles?  Do they not look back fondly on the 04 title team that made the Finals in 05 as well?  Should Mavs fans not feel satisfied with what Dirk accomplished over his career? 

Are you not entertained?

[GreenCoffeeBean]

I love our team but let’s be realistic. We got out worked and out hustled by the Heat (yeah they got smacked by LAL but that was a bad matchup in the front court). The Heat’s Spur like offense completely exposed us. This team is absolutely putrid at guarding perimeter scoring and ball movement in the half court and there are about 4 good teams in the west that live and die by it.

We’re not winning anything until we can CONSISTENTLY defend guards better and stop settling for garbage three pointers so much. If we don’t, all we can do is wait for the current NBA Legends to age out and retire and try and grab one title when Tatum and Brown are 32. Personally, that sounds horrible.

I’m not interested in winning the East. It’s about winning titles.

[Roy H.]

This team is absolutely putrid at guarding perimeter scoring

I disagree with you there. I think our defense was number one at defending the three-pointer.

[jambr380]

Unless we are going to trade Jaylen (and pieces) for Giannis, I would prefer this team just get under the tax next season. The way Hollinger presents it, it sounds impossible, but there are certainly ways to go about it.

Re-signing Hayward for $80M/4 yrs would leave his 1st year salary essentially half of what he is scheduled to get. Offloading Kanter and Poirier w/ #30, pushing back another pick.

Heck, if ATL would do it, I would trade Hayward for John Collins. Then we have the full MLE, the Bi-Annual (and a large TPE we could use at the deadline if we wanted to go that route).

I just don't think it is as hopeless as it is made to sound, but we should probably choose a direction. If we are going all in, though, then we really need to go all-in; otherwise we can have a similar team (at least in terms of quality) next year while restarting the clock on the tax penalty.

[nickagneta]

The team is extremely profitable, they own a 20% stake in CSNNE (or whatever it’s called now) and the team has appreciated from $360 million to $3.1 billion.

The idea that they can’t afford the tax is ludicrous.

Amen. Been saying this for years. The Boston Celtics, as well as the Boston Red Sox and New England Patriots, basically have authorization to print money. We, as fans, shouldn't put up with their cries of poverty or not being able to afford things.

That Betts and Brady are playing elsewhere over money is pathetic. That the Celtics will make decisions based on the luxury tax when they are so close to being able to win it all is also pathetic.

All three of those teams are swimming in cash

[ChillyWilly]

In 2019 the Celtics made $88 million in profit, not including accounting tricks.  The year before they made 100 million, and the year before that they had $85 million in profit. The Celtics have been profitable every single year that Wyc has owned the team.


The team has made around $700 million in profit since 2002, again not including whatever the team has made from his other ventures not related strictly to basketball income.

$700 million in profits and $2.7 billion in appreciation.  And yet we can’t afford to pick the number 14 pick in the draft? Come on. I thought we were an educated fan base.

Wyc sneezes and p---es income streams. This is a billionaire toy/hobby that pay for itself and that's the way it should be.

[PhoSita]

This team is absolutely putrid at guarding perimeter scoring

I disagree with you there. I think our defense was number one at defending the three-pointer.

Yeah I don't understand how a person could conclude that after watching the team.  Perimeter defense was one of the team's most obvious strengths.

[jambr380]

While it is true that the team is incredibly profitable and ownership could spend basically an unlimited amount on this team, it doesn't mean they will. People are just looking for solutions - either as a super-contender now, or a restart of the tax clock - since it is very unlikely ownership will consistently foot a $50M+ tax bill for years to come.