Bender insider article

[elcotte]

His toothpick body is the biggest concern

Do you mean his 18 year old toothpick body?

[arctic 3.0]

"Defensively, Bender is even better right now -- a versatile 7-footer who can guard multiple positions both on the perimeter and in the paint. He has the physical tools, the basketball skills and the relentless motor to be a Swiss Army knife in the NBA."


This pretty much guarantees a floor much higher then "bust".

[makaveli]

i do know about bender is that he killed those nike summit international games for young prospects.

[Who]

I remember an older article saying that the biggest predictor of success vs flops for young guys coming over from Europe is how many minutes they play.

Guys like Gallinari and Pau Gasol who played big roles on their teams vs Tskitishvili and Darko.

That worries me greatly about Bender. He just hasn't played enough.

That's fine.  But Gasol as an 18 year-old played in 2 games for a total of 10 minutes in Europe.  As a 19 year-old, he averaged 14.8 minutes in 26 games, which is comparable to Bender as an 18 year-old.  (13.7 minutes in 26 league games.)  It wasn't until he was 20 that Gasol started to get a lot of playing time.

Gallo did play a bit more as an 18 year-old.  Both Gasol and Gallo had the advantage of playing in their home country's leagues, which meant they weren't subject to any national protectionist issues, as Bender is to an extent.

If Bender stayed in Tel Aviv for two more years, I think you'd see him log a lot more minutes.  That isn't going to happen, whether or not it should, so this will be an untestable counterfactual.  But when you compare his European minutes to Gasol's, it stacks up fine.

This is a good post.

I'll add on to this post by quoting what I said in another thread here:
http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=84609.msg2089534#msg2089534

pau gasol was 20 years old in the year 2000.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/euro/players/pau-gasol-1.html#per_game::none

in the 1999-2000 season (i believe the season he was between 19 and 20 years of age) he averaged 4.2 ppg and 2.6 rpg in 14.8 minutes per game.  (close to bender's current numbers, and bender is 18)

the following season (when he was between 20 and 21 years old -> also the age that Porzingis was when he got drafted) pau averaged 11.4 ppg and 5.2 rpg in 23.9 minutes per game.

This does not change the fact that Bender is a large unknown (at pro level).

He has not proven himself in terms of production.

[The One]

I remember an older article saying that the biggest predictor of success vs flops for young guys coming over from Europe is how many minutes they play.

Guys like Gallinari and Pau Gasol who played big roles on their teams vs Tskitishvili and Darko.

That worries me greatly about Bender. He just hasn't played enough.

That's fine.  But Gasol as an 18 year-old played in 2 games for a total of 10 minutes in Europe.  As a 19 year-old, he averaged 14.8 minutes in 26 games, which is comparable to Bender as an 18 year-old.  (13.7 minutes in 26 league games.)  It wasn't until he was 20 that Gasol started to get a lot of playing time.

Gallo did play a bit more as an 18 year-old.  Both Gasol and Gallo had the advantage of playing in their home country's leagues, which meant they weren't subject to any national protectionist issues, as Bender is to an extent.

If Bender stayed in Tel Aviv for two more years, I think you'd see him log a lot more minutes.  That isn't going to happen, whether or not it should, so this will be an untestable counterfactual.  But when you compare his European minutes to Gasol's, it stacks up fine.

This is a good post.

I'll add on to this post by quoting what I said in another thread here:
http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=84609.msg2089534#msg2089534

pau gasol was 20 years old in the year 2000.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/euro/players/pau-gasol-1.html#per_game::none

in the 1999-2000 season (i believe the season he was between 19 and 20 years of age) he averaged 4.2 ppg and 2.6 rpg in 14.8 minutes per game.  (close to bender's current numbers, and bender is 18)

the following season (when he was between 20 and 21 years old -> also the age that Porzingis was when he got drafted) pau averaged 11.4 ppg and 5.2 rpg in 23.9 minutes per game.

I'm with saltlover and alldaboston...good posts.

And I will piggyback on your piggyback.

http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=84545.msg2087581#msg2087581

Is a young Pau Gasol comp fair?  If so, we are in business!

http://www.nba.com/draft2001/playerfiles/pau_gasol.html?nav=ArticleList

"Height:
7-0 (215 cm)
Weight:
227 (103 kg)

According to telebasket.com, he is an excellent ballhandler and passer, who can put the ball on the floor and run the court.
Despite his height, he moves around the court like a small forward and has the passing and shooting abilities for that position.

Delivered a breakthrough season in 2000-01 as a 20-year-old playing for F.C. Barcelona.
Played in 29 of team's first 33 games, averaging 11.3 points and 5.2 rebounds in 23.8 minutes.

As a 19-year-old, averaged 4.2 points and 2.6 rebounds in 14.8 minutes.
Showed perimeter game, hitting six three-point field goals.

As an 18-year, saw action in two games, playing 11 total minutes.
Scored six points and grabbed two rebounds, making one three-pointer.
Made his debut on January 17, 1999, against Caceres."

[chilidawg]

Pelton's consensus projections are very good, better than actual draft order, much better than Chad, and far far better than random fans like everyone on this board. Advanced stats models loved Bender based on Fiba performance, but I feared that they wouldn't like his lack of usage in Tel Aviv.

It's hard to know exactly how reliable Pelton's WARP is for internationals, but it seems to have an excellent recent track record (it liked Porzi, Capela, Nurkic, and Jokic, all of whom are outperforming their draft slots).

I'm generally a fan of advanced stats, but I'm pretty skeptical about projecting NBA success based on 12 mpg of Israeli league play for an 18 year old. 

That said, I'd still probably go with Bender at 3 based on what I know.  Length and shooting are what we need and he seems like he's got a good chance of providing both.  Thank god Ainge has far more info than I do.

[rondohondo]

The C's are in a perfect position to swing for the fences with this pick .

We pretty much own the draft after #15 , We can identify any player after 15 and get more young talent , or combine picks to maybe move up to around #12

Plus we have brk's next 2 pick , which are very likely top 10 picks.

And we have the cap space to address our big man needs while Dragan works on his body and game .

You have to go with the highest upside , and to me that is clearly Dragan.

[Boris Badenov]

Do we know anything about Bender's planned workout schedule?

[PhoSita]

I'm 100% convinced the pick has to be Bender or Murray if Danny can't trade it for a star or Jahlil Okafor.

Dunn is a poor fit and already 22.  Buddy has a lower ceiling than any of the other potential top 5 guys due to his advanced level of development.  Brown has no role at the next level.

[j804]

Im sold team Bender get em Danny

[Lucky17]

I'm 100% convinced the pick has to be Bender or Murray if Danny can't trade it for a star or Jahlil Okafor.

Dunn is a poor fit and already 22.  Buddy has a lower ceiling than any of the other potential top 5 guys due to his advanced level of development.  Brown has no role at the next level.

This is where I'm at. Although, I'm less keen on going after Okafor. I need to be sold on him a bit more.

I'm also fine with Hield, just not at #3. If Ainge wanted to slide down to improve the DAL or BOS picks and wound up with Hield and another top-ten pick, I might be OK with that.

[max215]

Do we know anything about Bender's planned workout schedule?

I think that his season ends within the next week or two, so he should be over here shortly after that. As far as I know, he does not have any workouts scheduled.

[Who]

Do we know anything about Bender's planned workout schedule?

Given how highly he is already rated, I cannot imagine his agent will allow him to any workouts of any value.

[PhoSita]

I'm 100% convinced the pick has to be Bender or Murray if Danny can't trade it for a star or Jahlil Okafor.

Dunn is a poor fit and already 22.  Buddy has a lower ceiling than any of the other potential top 5 guys due to his advanced level of development.  Brown has no role at the next level.

This is where I'm at. Although, I'm less keen on going after Okafor. I need to be sold on him a bit more.

I'm also fine with Hield, just not at #3. If Ainge wanted to slide down to improve the DAL or BOS picks and wound up with Hield and another top-ten pick, I might be OK with that.

If we could finagle it to end up with both Hield and Poeltl by moving around in the top 10 like you propose, I could be OK with that.

At the end of the day, though, that might be the easiest way to improve the team for next year via the draft, but could still provide the least improvement long term, and not really help as far as going deep in the playoffs.  The Celts have plenty of nice players.

[WeMadeIt17]

My view of Bender is getting better and better. If we can add a few pieces around him and let him work on his body a little bit while getting time i will be happy. Everything i've read is that he works extremely hard and his shot is better the Prozingis. He also fits our scheme pretty well. He can spot up outside while IT takes it to the rim. I would like to see one of Whiteside/Horford/Gasol next to him at Center so we could play to his strength of pick and roll/pop.