Author Topic: Win Projection for Season  (Read 15302 times)

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Re: Win Projection for Season
« Reply #75 on: October 18, 2017, 11:31:41 AM »

Offline Fafnir

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We just lost our best player. Not sure how anyone is still in the 50's.
It is all relative, if you were in the high 50s or 60s then low 50s is still possible from that frame of mind.

Re: Win Projection for Season
« Reply #76 on: October 18, 2017, 12:08:36 PM »

Offline Moranis

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We just lost our best player. Not sure how anyone is still in the 50's.
It is all relative, if you were in the high 50s or 60s then low 50s is still possible from that frame of mind.
Boston won 53 games last year and the team without Hayward is pretty similar. 
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Re: Win Projection for Season
« Reply #77 on: October 18, 2017, 12:20:35 PM »

Offline jpotter33

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We just lost our best player. Not sure how anyone is still in the 50's.
It is all relative, if you were in the high 50s or 60s then low 50s is still possible from that frame of mind.
Boston won 53 games last year and the team without Hayward is pretty similar.

Eh, somewhat. While it's clear we're much more athletic and have much better size and overall raw talent, we're also much younger and less used to playing together than last year's group.

I think it mainly depends on our core of young guys how far we go this year, specifically Smart, Rozier, Brown, and Tatum. If they progress as well as we think (likely) and perhaps one of them makes a significant leap (my money is on Brown), then I think we could be as good as last year's team, if not even a bit better.

Our play style will determine that, too. If we pick up the pace and continuously push the ball, that bodes well for us, especially the younger core who should thrive in the open court.

Re: Win Projection for Season
« Reply #78 on: October 18, 2017, 12:29:13 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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Boston won 53 games last year and the team without Hayward is pretty similar.

and the team without Hayward ... is much younger

(giving minutes to Brown, Tatum, Rozier, Semi instead of Bradley, Crowder, Green, Olynyk)

and the team without Hayward ... has no experience playing together


(4 returning players)

and the team without Hayward ... has less reliable outside shooting


(compare Bradley, Crowder, Olynyk, Green to Brown, Tatum, Morris, Semi ... not to mention larger roles for Smart and Rozier)

and the team without Hayward ... is much thinner than last year's team

(the Celts are one injury to 31 year old Al Horford away from starting Aron Baynes at C and giving heavy minutes to Semi Ojeleye and Daniel Theis ... they're one Kyrie Irving injury away from starting Marcus Smart and relying on Al Horford or Jaylen Brown to be their #1 offensive option)



Honestly, I might be too optimistic with 45 wins.  That feels kind of like a best case scenario.  I guess we just need to hope Horford and Kyrie stay healthy and Kyrie has a MVP caliber campaign.
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Re: Win Projection for Season
« Reply #79 on: October 18, 2017, 12:31:35 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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I have us down to 44 wins this year. Don't know where that places us in the playoff seedings but I think people will need to get used to the idea that we are probably a 1st round exit this year.


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Re: Win Projection for Season
« Reply #80 on: October 18, 2017, 12:32:10 PM »

Offline SparzWizard

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Boston won 53 games last year and the team without Hayward is pretty similar.

and the team without Hayward ... is much younger

(giving minutes to Brown, Tatum, Rozier, Semi instead of Bradley, Crowder, Green, Olynyk)

and the team without Hayward ... has no experience playing together


(4 returning players)

and the team without Hayward ... has less reliable outside shooting


(compare Bradley, Crowder, Olynyk, Green to Brown, Tatum, Morris, Semi ... not to mention larger roles for Smart and Rozier)

and the team without Hayward ... is much thinner than last year's team

(the Celts are one injury to 31 year old Al Horford away from starting Aron Baynes at C and giving heavy minutes to Semi Ojeleye and Daniel Theis ... they're one Kyrie Irving injury away from starting Marcus Smart and relying on Al Horford or Jaylen Brown to be their #1 offensive option)



Honestly, I might be too optimistic with 45 wins.  That feels kind of like a best case scenario.  I guess we just need to hope Horford and Kyrie stay healthy and Kyrie has a MVP caliber campaign.

We have to also take into account of any future injuries besides Gordon Hayward this season. Still have 81 more games to go.

Losing Smart, Brown, Tatum, Kyrie, Horford or Baynes will definitely be devastating.


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Re: Win Projection for Season
« Reply #81 on: October 18, 2017, 12:35:58 PM »

Offline keevsnick

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We just lost our best player. Not sure how anyone is still in the 50's.
It is all relative, if you were in the high 50s or 60s then low 50s is still possible from that frame of mind.
Boston won 53 games last year and the team without Hayward is pretty similar.

Well I mean in some ways yes, but in others not at all. We still have an elite PG and Al Horford. But we has lost a lot of shooting with Kelly, Bradley and Jae gone. As Much as I LOVE Brown and Tatum expecting those guys to shoot 40% from 3 like Jae and Avery is not happening. This may cramp our spacing somewhat. Without a secondary creator like Hayward our bench scoring may very well be an issue again, even if Tatum and or Brown steps up on the first unit. We are also relying ALOT more on young players. With GH down we have KI, AL, MS, JB, JT, TR, AB and MM. That's eight guys, and one of them is a nineteen year old rookie! Beyond that its a bunch of huge ????'s. Depth helps win regular season games, we don't have it. Giving minutes to Semi, Yabu and the like hurts more than people realize. Even if Brown can replace what Crowder/Hayward give you on defense we still lost arguably the best perimeter defender and ours guys are so you/new to the team that team defense could be a problem at times. We lost some swhitability with GH out too. We went from lock to get 50, probably mid fifties to very hard to get to fifty, off chance of struggling a lot. I predict 48.

Re: Win Projection for Season
« Reply #82 on: October 18, 2017, 12:39:47 PM »

Offline Donoghus

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Wow.  Sky really is falling for some people.   

Obviously, health is the biggest X factor as we all should certainly know now.


Still, this team should still win high 40s & maybe even still crack 50.    Bench looks like its going to be better than last year.  You still have Kyrie who is clearly a difference maker, Jaylen who certainly looks poised to breakout, a rookie in Tatum that adds a dimension that wasn't on this team last year, Smart in a contract year, Rozier who you can see growth with just to name a few.   And you still have Brad Stevens.

The key is the kids but I'm not ready to write off this team as still being a top 3-4 seed in the East who can still play a few rounds come playoff time. 


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Re: Win Projection for Season
« Reply #83 on: October 18, 2017, 12:52:27 PM »

Offline Moranis

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Boston won 53 games last year and the team without Hayward is pretty similar.

and the team without Hayward ... is much younger

(giving minutes to Brown, Tatum, Rozier, Semi instead of Bradley, Crowder, Green, Olynyk)

and the team without Hayward ... has no experience playing together


(4 returning players)

and the team without Hayward ... has less reliable outside shooting


(compare Bradley, Crowder, Olynyk, Green to Brown, Tatum, Morris, Semi ... not to mention larger roles for Smart and Rozier)

and the team without Hayward ... is much thinner than last year's team

(the Celts are one injury to 31 year old Al Horford away from starting Aron Baynes at C and giving heavy minutes to Semi Ojeleye and Daniel Theis ... they're one Kyrie Irving injury away from starting Marcus Smart and relying on Al Horford or Jaylen Brown to be their #1 offensive option)



Honestly, I might be too optimistic with 45 wins.  That feels kind of like a best case scenario.  I guess we just need to hope Horford and Kyrie stay healthy and Kyrie has a MVP caliber campaign.
I will take talent over age any day of the week and twice on Sunday. 

Irving > Thomas
Brown < Bradley
Tatum < Crowder
Morris > Johnson
Horford = Horford
Smart > Smart
Rozier > Rozier
Baynes > Olynyk
Jerebko, Green, Zeller > Yabusele, Larkin, Ojeleye

So I basically see a wash in the starting lineup, but a better main rotation with a weaker deep rotation this year.  The teams are about the same, and frankly I wouldn't be all that surprised to see both Brown and Tatum better than Bradley and Crowder by the end of the year. 

There is obviously less overall shooting, but I feel much more comfortable with Brown and Tatum as scoring options then I did with Bradley and Crowder in similar roles as Bradley and Crowder were both fairly limited offensively overall (Crowder much moreso than Bradley).

Depth will be a problem and the younger guys will have more "rookie" mistakes, but I also expect more great games from them (like Brown last night).   
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Re: Win Projection for Season
« Reply #84 on: October 18, 2017, 01:02:40 PM »

Offline LatterDayCelticsfan

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But, but, but... Kyrie Irving has never led a team into the playoffs. WE'RE DOOMED!!!!

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Re: Win Projection for Season
« Reply #85 on: October 18, 2017, 01:40:36 PM »

Offline mmmmm

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While I am concerned about depth in the front-court and we could definitely use more reliable outside shooting, overall, I concur with Moranis that this team is now roughly similar in quality to last year's team.  While we lose in experience and outside shooting, we have better size & athleticism in the 2-4 positions.

I was already calling high 50s with Gordon.  If losing him costs us 5-ish wins, that puts me at low-50s.     The rest of the East is still full of some really, really bad teams, after all.

Let's say: 52 wins and still one of the top 3 seeds in the East.

How well we do in the playoffs could very well depend on if / how well Hayward comes back  (and of course, how well / if Thomas comes back for the Cavs).
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Re: Win Projection for Season
« Reply #86 on: October 18, 2017, 01:46:10 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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I guess the simplest way to put it is, if you think this team is winning 50+ without Hayward that means you probably thought they were a 60+ win type team with a good chance in a series against any team outside of Oakland.

I liked the potential for this team with Hayward, but I was not nearly that high on them.  I saw them as a 50-55 win team at best with a chance at having some struggles in the regular season and finishing below 50 wins. 

So, without Hayward, they're a team that should finish above .500 but will have trouble getting HCA or making it out of the 1st round, even in a mediocre East.
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Re: Win Projection for Season
« Reply #87 on: October 18, 2017, 01:47:19 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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If you lose a 20PPG All-Star and think your team is only going to lose a few more games to 5 more ganes, I think you are fooling yourself. If Hayward is only worth 3-5 more wins a season then the front office made a huge mistake in giving him $120 million.

Re: Win Projection for Season
« Reply #88 on: October 18, 2017, 02:00:25 PM »

Offline seancally

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If you lose a 20PPG All-Star and think your team is only going to lose a few more games to 5 more ganes, I think you are fooling yourself. If Hayward is only worth 3-5 more wins a season then the front office made a huge mistake in giving him $120 million.

Eh I think it's relative. There are guys on bad teams who score 20ppg because someone has to score. But considering adding Hayward was not something done in isolation this offseason, it's hard to say he absolutely adds / subtracts X wins. That's because other guys' roles shift, people take up some of the scoring slack, schemes change, etc. In addition, it gets harder to add wins to the total amount when you get higher in win count. So while subtracting Hayward from a team like this might cause 5 wins, doing so from a team like, say, Brooklyn would cost several more, I imagine, because they have less to replace him with.

We didn't make the moves we made to inflate regular season win total, we did so to become a more dynamic and competitive playoff team. That usually = higher win total but not necessarily. Exhibit A: Last year's Cavs (and many Lebron teams for that matter).
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Re: Win Projection for Season
« Reply #89 on: October 18, 2017, 02:06:02 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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Per Ryan Bernardoni:

Quote
The most commonly referenced statistical projections from ESPN and 538 now show the Celtics as a below .500 team. Other models probably aren’t likely to be too much better. Those ESPN models, based on Real Plus Minus and Box Plus Minus, didn’t particularly like the C’s to begin with. Removing their best all around player puts them near the bottom of the East’s playoff crawl.


I think those statistical models are a bit too cool on the Celts, but it does show you that it's not crazy to think they may not be in the top half of the East anymore.
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