2009 Celticsblog Draft: Voting Analysis : Team of the Future

[nickagneta]

One thing I found interesting, looking at the "Final Five" (i.e., the Conference Finalists, and Orlando since they were in a run-off):

Team	Original Pick	First Pick Made	Overall Finish
Orlando	1st	1st	5th
Buffalo	2nd	2nd	3rd (tie)
Toronto	3rd	7th	2nd
Philadelphia	4th	9th	3rd (tie)
Portland	16th	35th	1st

I think it's clear that landing a top-four pick really, really gives a GM an advantage here.  However, Portland's finish also shows that literally anyone can win, if you draft well and make good trades.

To take this one step further here are the final 4 teams from both conferences:

1.) Orlando - Pick# 1       Picked 1st
2.) Chicago - Pick#19       Picked 4th
3.) Toronto - Pick#3        Picked 7th
4.) Philadelphia - Pick#4   Picked 9th



1.) Buffalo - Pick#2        Picked 2nd
2.) Portland - Pick#16      Picked 35th
4.) Seattle - Pick#15       Picked 10th
6.) Houston - Pick#11       Picked 11th

As I said while the draft was ongoing and even before, if you want any chance of winning you must have a top 20 pick to begin with. Yes, Portland picked 35th as their first pick but the asset of the 16th pick that they traded yielded enough higher round picks to go with a successful non-superstar but great depth team that won them the title. My guess is if that original asset was in the mid to late 20's, they don't win the title.

What this does show is that if you aren't picking in the top 10 or so, you stand very little chance of having enough star power on your team to get the votes that is needed to get to the second round of the playoffs. maybe future drafts will prove differently, but as of right now after having our first vote all the way through to the Finals, this is a reality.

[Edgar]

maybe.but then u might want to try the trading paradise
or
the future team with specifically THAT in mind.

[Rondo2287]

Ya exactly if I got a pick 20 or below im either trying to trade down and mass depth or build a team of the future. 

[Roy Hobbs]

maybe.but then u might want to try the trading paradise
or
the future team with specifically THAT in mind.

Yep.  That would be my argument.  If you find yourself with between the 15th to 30th pick, either find a way to get into the top-10, or make a good trade to move back.  It's going to be very, very difficult to stand pat and win.

It's also fairly ironic that the one major trade Portland made to set itself up was with Toronto, who we met in the Finals.  I also think Portland took the "moneyball" approach of drafting guys who were a bit undervalued, due to some past injuries.  There's no way that Manu Ginobili is the 50th best player in the NBA, and Michael Redd isn't a 3rd rounder.  Without either of those two players, we probably never win our division or make the Conference Finals, let alone win this thing.

[Rondo2287]

I bleive you are referring to the trade where you two took advantage of me while I was in a drunken stuper...

[nickagneta]

Having owned the 28th pick the problem with what you gentlemen are suggesting about tading back is that just about everyone knows there are 20 franchise stars in the league and that trading down a mid to low 20's pick gets you a hell of a lot less than a number 16 pick. Most people making offers for my #28 pick were turning refusing to give a 2nd and 4th rounder for it.

For your 16th pick you got high 2nd, 4th, 5th and 7th round picks. Drop another 10 spots in the draft you might have been lucky to close a deal for late 2nd and late 3rd. What happens to Portland's depth then?

I love the game and if it is played again next year and I am not helping the commissioner, I will definitely play again. But know this people who want to play. It's all about the draft lottery if you plan on winning. If your team is called early in the draft process, just plan on trying to make the playoffs and having a good time.

[Roy Hobbs]

Having owned the 28th pick the problem with what you gentlemen are suggesting about tading back is that just about everyone knows there are 20 franchise stars in the league and that trading down a mid to low 20's pick gets you a hell of a lot less than a number 16 pick. Most people making offers for my #28 pick were turning refusing to give a 2nd and 4th rounder for it.

For your 16th pick you got high 2nd, 4th, 5th and 7th round picks. Drop another 10 spots in the draft you might have been lucky to close a deal for late 2nd and late 3rd. What happens to Portland's depth then?

I love the game and if it is played again next year and I am not helping the commissioner, I will definitely play again. But know this people who want to play. It's all about the draft lottery if you plan on winning. If your team is called early in the draft process, just plan on trying to make the playoffs and having a good time.

I don't think people who pick late are doomed.  Rather, it just means they need to be very, very active traders. 

For instance, somebody asked how we had so much depth.  Well, it's because we were active, talking trade with just about everybody.  At one point, we traded up into the third, giving up two fifths.  We then immediately traded that pick for a fourth and a fifth.  It's trades like that that allow a team to have good depth.

I think the lesson is, if you get a late pick you need to be way more active.  You either need to trade up, or trade back.  If you stand pat, you'll probably put together a mediocre team.

[Rondo2287]

Nick you just need one of these

Bulls trade:1st rounder (21), 4th rounder (27), 5th rounder (1)

Heat trade: 2nd rounder (11), 2nd rounder (30), 3rd rounder (20), 5th rounder (20), 6th rounder (12)

[KCattheStripe]

I think the lesson is :

VOTE MEMPHIS!

[Roy Hobbs]

Nick you just need one of these

Bulls trade:1st rounder (21), 4th rounder (27), 5th rounder (1)

Heat trade: 2nd rounder (11), 2nd rounder (30), 3rd rounder (20), 5th rounder (20), 6th rounder (12)

Perfect example.

[nickagneta]

Nick you just need one of these

Bulls trade:1st rounder (21), 4th rounder (27), 5th rounder (1)

Heat trade: 2nd rounder (11), 2nd rounder (30), 3rd rounder (20), 5th rounder (20), 6th rounder (12)

Perfect example.

Perfect example except that because Chicago had already traded there 19th pick for the 9th and then down again and up again they had the luxury of having picked up a good amount of picks including another first rounder. They had the luxury of being able to do that due to the placement of their original pick. You guys weren't looking at your top asset being as lowly valued and hence had larger margin of errors to deal with.

New Orleans traded up into the top five but to do so it cost them everything and it gave them one of the worst teams in the league. Miami traded that pick to Chicago and then traded back and got it and it gutted his team, again, one of the worst in the league.

Of the teams that owned the final 11 picks in the draft to start, 3 made the playoffs and none made it to the second round. This is not an uncommon thing. Fantasy football and basketball leagues stats will only back up what I am saying. It's okay, it's part of the game. I have no problem with it. I have been a regular FF player for near a decade. I know what the realities of playing in a large league and getting a late first picks are. I just think the realities of the situation should be admitted to. It is just [dang] near impossible to win something like this or even a fantasy league with 30 starting teams picking in the bottom third. Always has been, always will be.

[indeedproceed]

Having owned the 28th pick the problem with what you gentlemen are suggesting about tading back is that just about everyone knows there are 20 franchise stars in the league and that trading down a mid to low 20's pick gets you a hell of a lot less than a number 16 pick. Most people making offers for my #28 pick were turning refusing to give a 2nd and 4th rounder for it.

For your 16th pick you got high 2nd, 4th, 5th and 7th round picks. Drop another 10 spots in the draft you might have been lucky to close a deal for late 2nd and late 3rd. What happens to Portland's depth then?

I love the game and if it is played again next year and I am not helping the commissioner, I will definitely play again. But know this people who want to play. It's all about the draft lottery if you plan on winning. If your team is called early in the draft process, just plan on trying to make the playoffs and having a good time.

I don't think people who pick late are doomed.  Rather, it just means they need to be very, very active traders. 

For instance, somebody asked how we had so much depth.  Well, it's because we were active, talking trade with just about everybody.  At one point, we traded up into the third, giving up two fifths.  We then immediately traded that pick for a fourth and a fifth.  It's trades like that that allow a team to have good depth.

I think the lesson is, if you get a late pick you need to be way more active.  You either need to trade up, or trade back.  If you stand pat, you'll probably put together a mediocre team.

Once again, not to beat a dead horse.

Last year I was 1(30), 2(1)

I turned it into Brandon Roy, Caron Butler, Nene, and Perkins.

Smart and savvy GM's regard drafting position like rich bachelors regard age. "Its just a number"

[nickagneta]

Having owned the 28th pick the problem with what you gentlemen are suggesting about tading back is that just about everyone knows there are 20 franchise stars in the league and that trading down a mid to low 20's pick gets you a hell of a lot less than a number 16 pick. Most people making offers for my #28 pick were turning refusing to give a 2nd and 4th rounder for it.

For your 16th pick you got high 2nd, 4th, 5th and 7th round picks. Drop another 10 spots in the draft you might have been lucky to close a deal for late 2nd and late 3rd. What happens to Portland's depth then?

I love the game and if it is played again next year and I am not helping the commissioner, I will definitely play again. But know this people who want to play. It's all about the draft lottery if you plan on winning. If your team is called early in the draft process, just plan on trying to make the playoffs and having a good time.

I don't think people who pick late are doomed.  Rather, it just means they need to be very, very active traders. 

For instance, somebody asked how we had so much depth.  Well, it's because we were active, talking trade with just about everybody.  At one point, we traded up into the third, giving up two fifths.  We then immediately traded that pick for a fourth and a fifth.  It's trades like that that allow a team to have good depth.

I think the lesson is, if you get a late pick you need to be way more active.  You either need to trade up, or trade back.  If you stand pat, you'll probably put together a mediocre team.

Once again, not to beat a dead horse.

Last year I was 1(30), 2(1)

I turned it into Brandon Roy, Caron Butler, Nene, and Perkins.

Smart and savvy GM's regard drafting position like rich bachelors regard age. "Its just a number"

Good players and in retrospect your team may have deserved to have made the playoffs last year but the reality is, Phoenix would not have made the playoffs last year, if that was your team.

I am convinced that with a year under my belt I will be a much better GM and not make the mistakes I did this year and if I get a very low position in the future I think I can probably make the playoffs even with that position. I doubt though I would ever stand a chance of winning.

Of course, I must say, position doesn't make the game any more or less fun. The excitement and enjoyment of the game is in trying to make something from nothing and do as good a job as one can. There's a certain excitement you get from knowing you are about to close a deal that you feel will help your team and waiting for the final 5-6 picks before you get to yours that just can't be replaced with some other forms of entertainment. It mimics the feeling of the real NBA Draft night that we all find so exciting. It is additive and if we can get some of the drama to a minimum(myself included), then I can't see why anyone who isn't a huge NBA fan could fall in love with this game.

[Hoyo de Monterrey]

maybe.but then u might want to try the trading paradise
or
the future team with specifically THAT in mind.

Yep.  That would be my argument.  If you find yourself with between the 15th to 30th pick, either find a way to get into the top-10, or make a good trade to move back.  It's going to be very, very difficult to stand pat and win.

Yup. I traded 1(15) and a higher 4 for a 1(10) and a lower 4. Timmy Duncan was sitting all pretty right there for me. Gotta make moves.

[Roy Hobbs]

So these are the two teams getting the most debate, huh?

Milwaukee Bucks (bucknersrevenge)- Kevin Durant, Paul Millsap, J.R. Smith, Rodney Stuckey, Brendan Haywood, Jamario Moon, Luke Ridnour, Ben Wallace, Tyler Hansborough, Rashad McCants, Tony Battie, Anthony Johnson, JR Giddens, Sean May, Marko Jaric

Denver Nuggets (Wdleehi)- Greg Oden, Kevin Love, Mike Conley Jr., Jeff Green, Randy Foye, Udonis Haslem, Miekael Pietrus, Kelenna Azubuike, Yao Ming, Brandon Wright, Josh Boone, Mardy Collins, Brian Scalabrine, Dwayne Jones, James Gist, Semih Erden, Morris Almond, Nedžad Sinanović, Tadija Dragicevic

Both teams definitely have good cores.  From my perspective, though, Milwaukee has holes at the PG and C positions, which are two important places.  Rodney Stuckey, to me, just isn't a future elite PG.  Also, Milwaukee's front line suffers from a size problem.  They have no young center, and Millsap and Hansborough are both undersized power forwards.

I really like Denver and how the pieces fit together, on the other hand.  At PG, I like Mike Conley, and was really impressed by his numbers in the second half last season.  (On paper, there's not a huge distinction between Conley and Stuckey yet, but at this stage, I'm much more impressed by Conley).  At center, I'm a believer in Greg Oden.  I like Kevin Love and Brandan Wright a lot, as well.  I think Foye, Green, and Azubuike form a good scoring core on the wings.  Also, I think Denver is going to be better committed to defense than Milwaukee's guys.  I didn't even really take Yao into consideration, although I do think he's a big asset on Denver's roster.