No more than a solid starter to me
Why?
He just isn't quick and strong enough to dominate in NBA
How is he going to defend at a high level? above average team defender will be his ceiling
How is he going to be a star scorer in NBA? 20ppg will be his best
I see him as KO type of guy, very useful high floor starter, in prime maybe can make 1 or 2 time allstar but no higher, means low ceiling for top picks
I think that it is very hard for people that haven't seen enough of his play (not just 4 sec long fancy clips, or a qtr here and there), to understand the value of players feel for the game, his vision and his intangibles, to validate them. This works for everyone, not just Luka. A much more evident thing, to see if someone is jumping through the roof or not, or how high is his FT%. Hey, when people saw Kukoč 25 years ago, I presume that 95% of Americans (he was a stranger to them ATM) would feel similar (he can't jump or run like hell, skinny, Pippen held him in check).
Then after
3 titles, everyone is like: "Oh, yeah, Toni, I knew clearly he would be great.", "How can you not think...blah, blah"
Look, if Luka comes here, via the draft, I will pop a chilled champagne (as I did when we won this lottery) and (after a few drinks) I would say he will win at least
4 titles in Boston. Then he can be an average starter (or even a 6th man) for as long as he wants.