Smart Takes Too Many Bad Shots

[nickagneta]

Would it be sacrilege to suggest that Smart the last two years has been prone to giving less than his best effort in some games you figure will be easy wins?  Up till last year he would always it seemed, pick the team up.  He doesn't always do that now.

Not sure whether it's him being wise to being susceptible to injury when he goes all out, the contract or just a natural progression in his career - but he doesn't bring it as often as he used to.

I am not sure on this but I do think it's very apparent he isn't playing defense on the same 1st Team All-Defense level that he did last year. And I am basing this on what he was doing before the eye infection as well. This year I think Tatum and Brown have both been better defenders than Smart.

[PhoSita]

Quite a bad example in my opinion. Smith is a career 37% three point shooter on over 5 attempts per game, and in a 15 year career (in which he won the 6MOTY award based on his scoring) he shot below 35% over the course of a season 4 times - 2 of those seasons were ones where he played 11 games and 35 games.

Smith is Ray Allen compared to Marcus

Smith was super streaky though.  I don't know where to find good stats on shooting consistency, but Smith went through a lot of hot and cold streaks, much as Smart does.  I would argue that opponents tended to defend Smith like somebody who was much better than a 37% shooter, and at times he played like it -- I believe he's got some of the top games in NBA history in terms of three point makes.


My point is that opponents have a tendency to respect shooters based on a general perception of the shooters' ability to get hot, not what the shooters' efficiency has been at recently.


Similarly, it's not realistic to expect a player to adjust their shot tendencies over time as their shooting percentages rise and fall.  Indeed I think generally you don't want your players to do that.  A shooter needs to have the mentality that no matter how many times he's missed, the next one might go in.


Marcus has demonstrated over a large enough sample that he can hit enough threes for it to be a good shot.  In fact, he's hit many threes in late game situations, and he's also had plenty of games where he gets really hot from deep.


Yes, you would prefer that he be more consistent, but there is value in a guy who, despite having an overall somewhat low percentage, has the ability to go off from deep.  That's not simply statistical randomness.  Some players are more consistent or streaky than others.  Marcus is a streaky shooter.

[nickagneta]

Quite a bad example in my opinion. Smith is a career 37% three point shooter on over 5 attempts per game, and in a 15 year career (in which he won the 6MOTY award based on his scoring) he shot below 35% over the course of a season 4 times - 2 of those seasons were ones where he played 11 games and 35 games.

Smith is Ray Allen compared to Marcus

Smith was super streaky though.  I don't know where to find good stats on shooting consistency, but Smith went through a lot of hot and cold streaks, much as Smart does.  I would argue that opponents tended to defend Smith like somebody who was much better than a 37% shooter, and at times he played like it -- I believe he's got some of the top games in NBA history in terms of three point makes.


My point is that opponents have a tendency to respect shooters based on a general perception of the shooters' ability to get hot, not what the shooters' efficiency has been at recently.


Similarly, it's not realistic to expect a player to adjust their shot tendencies over time as their shooting percentages rise and fall.  Indeed I think generally you don't want your players to do that.  A shooter needs to have the mentality that no matter how many times he's missed, the next one might go in.


Marcus has demonstrated over a large enough sample that he can hit enough threes for it to be a good shot.  In fact, he's hit many threes in late game situations, and he's also had plenty of games where he gets really hot from deep.


Yes, you would prefer that he be more consistent, but there is value in a guy who, despite having an overall somewhat low percentage, has the ability to go off from deep.  That's not simply statistical randomness.  Some players are more consistent or streaky than others.  Marcus is a streaky shooter.

Kinda inconsistent for you Pho. In the other thread you say Kanter shouldn't be playing defense in the playoffs(and hence, not playing at all) because he is a terrible defender but you are all for a terrible shooter in Smart continuing to take lots of shots.

[Moranis]

Quite a bad example in my opinion. Smith is a career 37% three point shooter on over 5 attempts per game, and in a 15 year career (in which he won the 6MOTY award based on his scoring) he shot below 35% over the course of a season 4 times - 2 of those seasons were ones where he played 11 games and 35 games.

Smith is Ray Allen compared to Marcus

Smith was super streaky though.  I don't know where to find good stats on shooting consistency, but Smith went through a lot of hot and cold streaks, much as Smart does.  I would argue that opponents tended to defend Smith like somebody who was much better than a 37% shooter, and at times he played like it -- I believe he's got some of the top games in NBA history in terms of three point makes.


My point is that opponents have a tendency to respect shooters based on a general perception of the shooters' ability to get hot, not what the shooters' efficiency has been at recently.


Similarly, it's not realistic to expect a player to adjust their shot tendencies over time as their shooting percentages rise and fall.  Indeed I think generally you don't want your players to do that.  A shooter needs to have the mentality that no matter how many times he's missed, the next one might go in.


Marcus has demonstrated over a large enough sample that he can hit enough threes for it to be a good shot.  In fact, he's hit many threes in late game situations, and he's also had plenty of games where he gets really hot from deep.


Yes, you would prefer that he be more consistent, but there is value in a guy who, despite having an overall somewhat low percentage, has the ability to go off from deep.  That's not simply statistical randomness.  Some players are more consistent or streaky than others.  Marcus is a streaky shooter.

Nobody thinks Smart is a good shooter though.  One of the reasons he has so many open looks is he is a terrible shooter. 

Smith had 2 seasons at better than 40% and 4 other at better than 39%.  Smith may have been streaky, but he was also an excellent shooter overall.  And let's be clear 37% is well above league average now, and was much greater than league average for much of his career. 

The idea that Smith and Smart are in any way comparable as shooters is laughable. 

[gouki88]

Quite a bad example in my opinion. Smith is a career 37% three point shooter on over 5 attempts per game, and in a 15 year career (in which he won the 6MOTY award based on his scoring) he shot below 35% over the course of a season 4 times - 2 of those seasons were ones where he played 11 games and 35 games.

Smith is Ray Allen compared to Marcus

Smith was super streaky though.  I don't know where to find good stats on shooting consistency, but Smith went through a lot of hot and cold streaks, much as Smart does.  I would argue that opponents tended to defend Smith like somebody who was much better than a 37% shooter, and at times he played like it -- I believe he's got some of the top games in NBA history in terms of three point makes.


My point is that opponents have a tendency to respect shooters based on a general perception of the shooters' ability to get hot, not what the shooters' efficiency has been at recently.


Similarly, it's not realistic to expect a player to adjust their shot tendencies over time as their shooting percentages rise and fall.  Indeed I think generally you don't want your players to do that.  A shooter needs to have the mentality that no matter how many times he's missed, the next one might go in.


Marcus has demonstrated over a large enough sample that he can hit enough threes for it to be a good shot.  In fact, he's hit many threes in late game situations, and he's also had plenty of games where he gets really hot from deep.


Yes, you would prefer that he be more consistent, but there is value in a guy who, despite having an overall somewhat low percentage, has the ability to go off from deep.  That's not simply statistical randomness.  Some players are more consistent or streaky than others.  Marcus is a streaky shooter.

Nobody thinks Smart is a good shooter though.  One of the reasons he has so many open looks is he is a terrible shooter. 

Smith had 2 seasons at better than 40% and 4 other at better than 39%.  Smith may have been streaky, but he was also an excellent shooter overall.  And let's be clear 37% is well above league average now, and was much greater than league average for much of his career. 

The idea that Smith and Smart are in any way comparable as shooters is laughable.

Yeah, Smith might have been streaky, but he was streaking that bordered on elite. Smart is a simply bad shooter who had one season as a solid shooter, and he can have hot games.

[Fierce1]

2:46      Marcus Smart misses driving layup   94 - 101

Celts trailing by 7 points with 2:46 remaining and that's the best the Celts can do?

[Sophomore]

2:46      Marcus Smart misses driving layup   94 - 101

Celts trailing by 7 points with 2:46 remaining and that's the best the Celts can do?

Smart was 9-14 last night, had 24 points. Meanwhile, Jayson ISO’d himself into some truly pathetic heaves and blown layups, and Hayward and Brown also looked lost - a combined 10-36. That’s right. They hit one more than Marcus while taking TWENTY-TWO more shots.

Getting angry at Marcus for one bad shot last night is missing the forest for the trees.

[Celtics4ever]

This has always been an issue for Marcus with him you hope the good outweighs the bad each night but he was hardly the reason we lost.  A lot of guys no showed, crazy schedule, etc.  but I also think we are not as good as our early record indicated.

[Birdman]

I believe we have one of the weakest bench in the NBA

[Fierce1]

2:46      Marcus Smart misses driving layup   94 - 101

Celts trailing by 7 points with 2:46 remaining and that's the best the Celts can do?

Smart was 9-14 last night, had 24 points. Meanwhile, Jayson ISO’d himself into some truly pathetic heaves and blown layups, and Hayward and Brown also looked lost - a combined 10-36. That’s right. They hit one more than Marcus while taking TWENTY-TWO more shots.

Getting angry at Marcus for one bad shot last night is missing the forest for the trees.

I'm not blaming Marcus Smart for the loss against the Sixers.

But I'm seeing a pattern.

I mean why would Brad allow Smart to take shots like that?
The Celts lost to the Kings, in Sacramento, because of Smart.
There are other games where Smart took ill-advised shots in crunch time.
It's becoming a pattern.

There's a reason why teams are not really guarding Smart and sometimes daring him to shoot.

Marcus Smart has a career FG% of 37.5% and 31.2% from beyond the arc.

He should not be the first option in crunch time.

[Fierce1]

I believe we have one of the weakest bench in the NBA

That's only part of the problem.

[footey]

This has always been an issue for Marcus with him you hope the good outweighs the bad each night but he was hardly the reason we lost.  A lot of guys no showed, crazy schedule, etc.  but I also think we are not as good as our early record indicated.

Pretty much sums up how I feel on all accounts.

[Sophomore]

2:46      Marcus Smart misses driving layup   94 - 101

Celts trailing by 7 points with 2:46 remaining and that's the best the Celts can do?

Smart was 9-14 last night, had 24 points. Meanwhile, Jayson ISO’d himself into some truly pathetic heaves and blown layups, and Hayward and Brown also looked lost - a combined 10-36. That’s right. They hit one more than Marcus while taking TWENTY-TWO more shots.

Getting angry at Marcus for one bad shot last night is missing the forest for the trees.

I'm not blaming Marcus Smart for the loss against the Sixers.

But I'm seeing a pattern.

I mean why would Brad allow Smart to take shots like that?
The Celts lost to the Kings, in Sacramento, because of Smart.
There are other games where Smart took ill-advised shots in crunch time.
It's becoming a pattern.

There's a reason why teams are not really guarding Smart and sometimes daring him to shoot.

Marcus Smart has a career FG% of 37.5% and 31.2% from beyond the arc.

He should not be the first option in crunch time.

I didn’t say you blamed him for last night’s loss. I said that if you watched the game and the takeaway is you’re angry that Smart is taking shots from other players you’re letting your preconceived ideas drive your game analysis.

I think Marcus is more likely to up his shot attempts when the rest of the offense is in the toilet. And any player shoots a little more when they’re having a good night.

Re whether Marcus is a bad shooter - last year he shot .364 from 3. That was on 346 attempts - not a small sample size. This year he’s at .329. He’s shot poorly since coming back from his eye whatever that was, but it won’t surprise me at all if he ends the season around 35 or 36 percent. A decent number.

Meanwhile, Jayson Tatum has been consistently horrible with long twos - since he came into the league - and missed several last night. Where is your anger at that persistent problem, which showed up in last night’s game - a night where Marcus hitting 3s was pretty much keeping us in the game? I’m saying if you want Marcus to shoot less, last night’s game is not one to point to as evidence.

[Fierce1]

2:46      Marcus Smart misses driving layup   94 - 101

Celts trailing by 7 points with 2:46 remaining and that's the best the Celts can do?

Smart was 9-14 last night, had 24 points. Meanwhile, Jayson ISO’d himself into some truly pathetic heaves and blown layups, and Hayward and Brown also looked lost - a combined 10-36. That’s right. They hit one more than Marcus while taking TWENTY-TWO more shots.

Getting angry at Marcus for one bad shot last night is missing the forest for the trees.

I'm not blaming Marcus Smart for the loss against the Sixers.

But I'm seeing a pattern.

I mean why would Brad allow Smart to take shots like that?
The Celts lost to the Kings, in Sacramento, because of Smart.
There are other games where Smart took ill-advised shots in crunch time.
It's becoming a pattern.

There's a reason why teams are not really guarding Smart and sometimes daring him to shoot.

Marcus Smart has a career FG% of 37.5% and 31.2% from beyond the arc.

He should not be the first option in crunch time.

I didn’t say you blamed him for last night’s loss. I said that if you watched the game and the takeaway is you’re angry that Smart is taking shots from other players you’re letting your preconceived ideas drive your game analysis.

I think Marcus is more likely to up his shot attempts when the rest of the offense is in the toilet. And any player shoots a little more when they’re having a good night.

Re whether Marcus is a bad shooter - last year he shot .364 from 3. That was on 346 attempts - not a small sample size. This year he’s at .329. He’s shot poorly since coming back from his eye whatever that was, but it won’t surprise me at all if he ends the season around 35 or 36 percent. A decent number.

Meanwhile, Jayson Tatum has been consistently horrible with long twos - since he came into the league - and missed several last night. Where is your anger at that persistent problem, which showed up in last night’s game - a night where Marcus hitting 3s was pretty much keeping us in the game? I’m saying if you want Marcus to shoot less, last night’s game is not one to point to as evidence.

Last night was only one example.

When Smart was hitting 3s, I knew he would not resist the temptation to play hero ball in crunch time.

Celts still had a chance before he missed that layup with 2:46 remaining.
After he missed, it was game over.

Like I said, it's becoming a pattern.

[Fierce1]

It doesn't necessarily mean Smart must take less shots.

What I'm saying is Smart should know when to shoot or when not to shoot.