At times, hard to stay positive over the off season moves

[BillfromBoston]

Very nice post, nick.  I feel the same way, and have communicated as much to people "off the blog".  I tend not to be downright negative on here, because I don't want to bring people's vibe down, but from my perspective this off-season was definitely a negative one.

I understand that the team has earned a grace period, but I'm not buying into the "Danny Ainge is an infallible genius" mantra.  I've been a Danny supporter since Day 1, even when the tide seemed to be turning against him.  I like him, think his number should be retired, and think he's been an very good GM for the most part.  However, he mistakes mistakes, and he's made several mistakes in the past.  To now assume that he knows exactly what he's doing, and to buy into the "In Danny We Trust" chant, just doesn't work for me.

My position was that the team could afford to lose Posey, if -- and only if -- they upgraded at other positions.  The team didn't do that.  Instead, as of this moment, we've replaced Posey with a rookie coming of knee surgery and a guy who NBA doctors declared to be medically unfit to play.  We replaced P.J. Brown with one of the few lottery picks in NBA history to not be extended a qualifying offer after his first two years in the league.

Now, things could work out.  I really like the Walker pick, and have bought into the Giddens pick (although "experts" didn't have him projected until the end of the second round).  However, the fact is none of the players we brought in this off-season are sure things.  I'm not even sure that these guys fit into the "more likely than not" category of being able to help this team.  It's fine to have a project or two or your roster, but it seems as though the team is counting on contributions from complete unknowns.  That makes no sense.

Right now, we have three truly consistently great players on our roster: KG, Paul, and Ray.  After that, we have one guy who is consistently mediocre-to-poor: Scal.  Those are the four guys with whom you know what you're going to get, night in and night out.  Perk and Rondo are becoming more consistent, and will be positive contributors on most nights (although both are prone to making "youthful" mistakes.)  Powe is fairly consistent on offense, not so much on defense; He's a classic garbage man, and can be counted on to contribute, at least, although he's going to have his share of defensive lapses.  House is as consistent as a three point specialist can be.  After that, you literally have seven guys that we have no idea what to expect from on a nightly basis:  BBD, Tony, Pruitt, Giddens, Walker, O'Bryant, and Miles.

I think that's too many question marks.  I thought one lesson from the pre-"big three" days was that teams don't win with youth.  Yet, here we are with a roster that is 75% kids, with most of those kids not being "sure things".  I'm not overly impressed.  I will hope for the best, but I think this off-season has handicapped our ability to repeat.  I've gotten on Doc Rivers a lot in the past for not putting the team in the "best position to succeed".  Well, this season, I wonder if Danny has really put Doc and the team in the best position to repeat.  I can't conclude that he has, and it's disheartening a bit.

See the problem I have with your analysis is right here at the end...James Posey and PJ Brown were not consistently productive players-offensively or defensively...they may very well be more consistent overall than POB/TA/Walker/Miles/Giddens individually, but the latter group is far more talented and there strength is in volume--somebody should get the job done every night-a job requiring very little in all actuality, and for limited minutes as well...

I certainly don't think that Ainge can "do no wrong" but I don't see a lot of wrong being done...he didn't mis-calculate the market for Posey, he set a price-point and wouldn't exceed it...the team negotiated with multiple other FA at the same time...

...and who exactly are we relying on here? Glen Davis and O'Bryant are manning the backup 5 in place of PJ Brown and Posey is being replaced by a collection of players-including Powe, as he played half his minutes at the 4....ineffectively at that...

I just don't see a massive difference in team makeup...Brown came in very late, the team was cruising before he got here...so we're looking at James Posey as the only real rotation player being replaced...are you honestly so skeptical that Posey and Brown's contributions can't be replaced by improvements in our existent player's? Forget all the "new guys" and just think of Perk/Powe/Davis/Rondo and TA...Surely even the chemistry alone should improve the play of everyone-GPA included....

I just don't think their is cause for such pessimism...

[Roy Hobbs]

See the problem I have with your analysis is right here at the end...James Posey and PJ Brown were not consistently productive players-offensively or defensively...they may very well be more consistent overall than POB/TA/Walker/Miles/Giddens individually, but the latter group is far more talented and there strength is in volume--somebody should get the job done every night-a job requiring very little in all actuality, and for limited minutes as well...

Therein lies the rub, I guess.  I'd much rather have Posey and Brown than any or all five of those guys, if I wanted to maximize my championship chances.  I understand that people love young guys, but sometimes there's a place for proven vets.

Also, I'm not sure why it's a 5-for-2 swap, since we could have made the same draft picks either way, etc.  We could have retained Posey, or replaced Posey with upgrades at other positions, and still kept the rookies.  Instead, we lost Posey and didn't upgrade elsewhere.  I'm not sure how that's something to be overly optimistic about.  Again, it certainly could work out, but the off-season moves certainly didn't maximize our repeat potential.

[wdleehi]

See the problem I have with your analysis is right here at the end...James Posey and PJ Brown were not consistently productive players-offensively or defensively...they may very well be more consistent overall than POB/TA/Walker/Miles/Giddens individually, but the latter group is far more talented and there strength is in volume--somebody should get the job done every night-a job requiring very little in all actuality, and for limited minutes as well...

Therein lies the rub, I guess.  I'd much rather have Posey and Brown than any or all five of those guys, if I wanted to maximize my championship chances.  I understand that people love young guys, but sometimes there's a place for proven vets.

Also, I'm not sure why it's a 5-for-2 swap, since we could have made the same draft picks either way, etc.  We could have retained Posey, or replaced Posey with upgrades at other positions, and still kept the rookies.  Instead, we lost Posey and didn't upgrade elsewhere.  I'm not sure how that's something to be overly optimistic about.  Again, it certainly could work out, but the off-season moves certainly didn't maximize our repeat potential.

More to the point, those two had roles, and new how to play those roles in the playoffs. 


The Celtics replaced experience that helped win a title last year with 2 rookies (both with baggage), a C labeled a bust and a SF (with baggage) that was found to be physically no longer able to play. 

[BillfromBoston]

All this 'more talented players', what have they done? 



We are talking about a title team, not a rebuilding team. 



The bench is probably 'more talented' when looking at 'potential' 

 

With so many low risk high potential guys some of them need to pan out. I think Danny is also counting on a fall back plan of title hungry veterans signing with us at the last minute. I think you will see Zo in Celtics green by the end of the season, unless POB plays very well. I think you will see us sign a veteran swingman, unless Darius, TA, Walker or Giddens emerge. That is what I feel his plan is

Exactly...Miles isn't even on a guaranteed deal, so his making the team isn't a lock-he is the "swing" player right now...even if he does stick, if the team needs a vet Center or wing they can make a trade or worst-case, just cut a player outright...it wouldn't be hard for the  team to trade any number of players on this roster because they are young, with talent...Powe/Davis/Pruitt/Giddens/Walker are all movable in a pinch...

..speaking of which, the young players only stand a chance to increase their value through opportunity,  so the duel value of all these low-risk, high-reward types is that it puts Boston in a position to go out and get another top-tier player in a year or two...

There is time to review the situation and adjust accordingly...this isn't the end of title contention, it is the beginning of the process...

[BballTim]

In retrospect it sure does appear that Danny's plan for the offseason was to draft who he drafted, resign Posey and House and maybe even Allen and make a shot at defending with just about the same team. I guess that's not bad strategy. But he miscalculated the Posey market, let it draw on too long and then lost him and then had nothing really to fall back on as most of the quality UFAs were off the market by that time.

  I don't think this is at all accurate. Everyone knew the Posey market, from the writers to the people on this board. The notion that we spent all that time arguing about whether Ainge should let Posey walk or overpay him for the kind of contract he got while Ainge had no idea what Posey would get in an offer is silly. And the main argument in favor of overpaying for Posey was the dearth of viable replacements on the market, so I don't think that Danny missed out on a bunch of quality UFAs.

[incoherent]

PJ Brown was overrated, he was a step slow on defense and everyone scored on him in the playoffs. 

Cassle blew, he was terrible on all accounts in the playoffs.

Pollard didnt even play.

I will take Miles, Obyrant, Giddens, Walker over these guys no questions asked.

Posey, we didn't have a choice.  I dont want him for 4 more years.  So good bye, that simple.  Thats the business side of basketball.


This off season wasn't a failure at all in my opinion.



 

[rutzan]

all i can say is ask yourself a few objective questions with regards to giddens, walker, pob, miles:

1) How many times have you seen them play on tv?
2) How many times have you seen them play in person?
3) When was the last time you saw them play?
4) Are you a doctor?

enough said...

[incoherent]

all i can say is ask yourself a few objective questions with regards to giddens, walker, pob, miles:

1) How many times have you seen them play on tv?
2) How many times have you seen them play in person?
3) When was the last time you saw them play?
4) Are you a doctor?

enough said...

Ask me how many of those questions are relevant to anything and I'll quickly answer: None


I dont have to know these players and their games.  I watched the players we lost, and only one of them was worth ANYTHING.  Posey.

[BillfromBoston]

To Nick and Hobbs,

Everybody is entitled to their opinion, but I think its massively presumptuous on both your parts to view this off-season as a "step back" without allowing a single game to take place.

... I just have trouble jumping all the way from cautious skepticism to outright judgmental negativity...it sounds like both of you definitively know what all the current roster players are going to do before they've gotten a chance to do it...its hard to swallow...

Perhaps, rather than labeling us as "presumptuous", you should go back and read our posts again.  I don't think either nick nor I said that the players were absolutely going to be failures.  In fact, I know that I stated the exact opposite ("things could work out").  However, playing the percentages, I would feel much, much more comfortable with a couple of proven veterans in here rather than having P.O.B. and Miles.

It wasn't an ideal off-season.  I think any Celtics fan who is honest with him- or herself would admit that.  We added a couple of rookies that are fairly major question marks, but who have upside.  We added a backup center who has been labeled as a bust, who may or may not have upside.  We added a small forward who was declared by several doctors to have suffered a career-ending injury.

On its face, that's not upgrading the roster.  I think anybody who is even remotely objective would admit that.  It's within the realm of possibility that one or more of these guys reaches their "best case" potential this year, but it's not something I want the team to be banking on.  I'm not declaring that the team is doomed, that they'll lose the division, or even that they won't repeat as champions.  I do, however, feel strongly that the team hasn't done everything in its power to maximize those repeat chances, and as a fan, that's disappointing.

Hobbs, you may not have stated outright that they'd fail, but it was heavily implied...

Forget that though, i'm not looking to start fights-just discuss...so back to the main point:

You said that the off-season was not "ideal" and I'm not arguing that it was..and "ideal" off-season, based on what news we heard, would have been to add Maggette IMO...but forget "ideal" and let's focus on the next jump in logic-did we improve?

I think this is a two-fold argument here:

1. Did the team add players to improve the roster
2. Will the team's incumbent players improve

I think these two things are directly linked together and have bearing on whether the team as a whole has improved this year.

To the first point, I personally feel that POB/Davis/Powe/Walker/Giddens/TA/Miles are question marks in terms of how much they can contribute, but relative to what they'd be ASKED to contribute I feel much more confident in their ability to fill the void left by Brown and Posey.

Posey was a spot up shooter who knew the team defense, his individual man defense was hit-or-miss..Brown was not very consistently effective overall, but he played well in a couple of key moments during the playoffs...both players are KNOWN commodities, which makes it much EASIER to see their names and feel that they will get the job done...

Every player on the list of "fill ins" is known for their defensive abilities, though not as proven as the two vets we lost. Scoring was an issue off the bench last year and this group of "fill ins" has substantially more potential in that area...no matter what they do, it won't be difficult to reach the mark that Brown/Posey set.

Overall, I think the mix of these players will provide the situational coverage we need to get the job done. The Eddie House signing further strengthens this point IMO. Pierce/Ray/House can play a 3 man wing rotation in a worst-case scenario. That provides the team with all the veteran stability they need. That would leave a platoon of wings to fill in as the "long defensive 3" which is such a niche role, i'm hardly worried about its overall implications-especially with Pierce as the main starter, playing 40 minutes in the playoffs...

Center is much more tenuous in my opinion...after Perkins, Davis and O'Bryant are all that's left...KG played over 10 mpg at center last year however, so in the event that Davis/POB can't cut it, I have faith in a Perk/KG/Powe 3 man rotation can lock down most every matchup they face...again both instances are "worst case" with none of the ? players panning out in their limited roles. Perk/KG/Powe frontcourt and Pierce/Ray/House at the wing--I can live comfortably with both of those groups, they are proven NBA players who contributed in the main rotation during the title run...

This brings us to the second point, internal improvement.

I am HIGHLY  confident that this team will see improvement by individuals on this team, namely Perkins, Rondo, Powe, and Davis...I also believe that the roles and rotation will be more finely tuned which will see higher efficiency from KG/PP/RA as well...I think everyone got spoiled with last season's results and glossed over the fact that the offense was incredibly simplistic. Once the playoffs started, that offense was exposed and forced to adjust-it did so by the ECF and was rolling at a new high during the finals...

Even without Posey and Brown, I think this team would be improved regardless-minus the new aquisitions...I feel strongly that Perkins/Powe/Davis/Rondo are going to be better, more consistent players and I think the familiarity will enable the group to play off each other better as well-GPA included...

So when I do look at the low-risk, high-reward additions as well as the increase in role for the existing rotation players who are being asked to step up, I see an improved team from last year-or at least the probability for an improved team, since we haven't seen them play yet...

I cannot value Posey and Brown over the agregate influx in talent plus the expected improvement from the existing rotation players...i'm confident that at least a few of the "long shots" will work out this year, but I don't think the team needs them to in order to compete at the same level they did last year...

That's at least the logic base I come from when thinking on this off-season...I like where the team is at, I think its improved, but I don't think its the "ideal" off-season...things could have been better, but teams don't control their own fate wholly..I think that Ainge did his due diligence, set fair price-points for acquiring players, and maintained a clear roadmap for the future while maintaining competitiveness for this year...

If he had sacrificed this season for long-term goals, i'd be p---ed...I don't think that's the case...what happens if next off-season the team gets Rasheed Wallace or Allen Iverson with the money the would have spent this off-season on a lesser player? Not every move is made in isolation...I think Ainge showed discipline without compromising the immediate season at hand...

[BillfromBoston]

See the problem I have with your analysis is right here at the end...James Posey and PJ Brown were not consistently productive players-offensively or defensively...they may very well be more consistent overall than POB/TA/Walker/Miles/Giddens individually, but the latter group is far more talented and there strength is in volume--somebody should get the job done every night-a job requiring very little in all actuality, and for limited minutes as well...

Therein lies the rub, I guess.  I'd much rather have Posey and Brown than any or all five of those guys, if I wanted to maximize my championship chances.  I understand that people love young guys, but sometimes there's a place for proven vets.

Also, I'm not sure why it's a 5-for-2 swap, since we could have made the same draft picks either way, etc.  We could have retained Posey, or replaced Posey with upgrades at other positions, and still kept the rookies.  Instead, we lost Posey and didn't upgrade elsewhere.  I'm not sure how that's something to be overly optimistic about.  Again, it certainly could work out, but the off-season moves certainly didn't maximize our repeat potential.

I agree with you...but the thing is, this off-season is not the only one i'm concerned with...the Celtics have gamed out potential free agents for the next 4-5 years, so they may very well have people ear-marked for next off-season that helped determine their cut-off point for this off-season...at some point you have to do this...i'd rather have a better player one year later...

[incoherent]

PJ was not a defensive force... the guy was getting owned.  He got us rebounds and put in a couple jumpers.

He did not however make good defensive plays, step slow.. opponents shooting over him easily, scoring on him all playoffs..  go back and watch if you don't believe me.

[BillfromBoston]

See the problem I have with your analysis is right here at the end...James Posey and PJ Brown were not consistently productive players-offensively or defensively...they may very well be more consistent overall than POB/TA/Walker/Miles/Giddens individually, but the latter group is far more talented and there strength is in volume--somebody should get the job done every night-a job requiring very little in all actuality, and for limited minutes as well...

Therein lies the rub, I guess.  I'd much rather have Posey and Brown than any or all five of those guys, if I wanted to maximize my championship chances.  I understand that people love young guys, but sometimes there's a place for proven vets.

Also, I'm not sure why it's a 5-for-2 swap, since we could have made the same draft picks either way, etc.  We could have retained Posey, or replaced Posey with upgrades at other positions, and still kept the rookies.  Instead, we lost Posey and didn't upgrade elsewhere.  I'm not sure how that's something to be overly optimistic about.  Again, it certainly could work out, but the off-season moves certainly didn't maximize our repeat potential.

More to the point, those two had roles, and new how to play those roles in the playoffs. 


The Celtics replaced experience that helped win a title last year with 2 rookies (both with baggage), a C labeled a bust and a SF (with baggage) that was found to be physically no longer able to play. 

...didn't replace them with 2 rookies...Perkins and Glen Davis will be replacing Brown and Tony Allen and Eddie House will teaming with Pierce and Allen to compensate for the loss of Posey--all these players saw regular minutes on the title team, so i'm not too concerned...the unproven players are bonus participants, not mandatory contributors...

[fairweatherfan06]

The problem when looking at this roster (on paper) is this.  We have (not including KG and Perk) 3 players who were highly touted as future "it" guys coming out of high school who have shown a lot of promise but their development has been derailed by either Attitude (Giddens) or injury (Walker) or both (Miles) and we have no idea what that will yield if anything.  Then we have 3 other guys who are possibly solid rotation players who we have no idea if they can be that or not O'Bryant (possibly in the wrong system or a bust?) Pruitt (is he really an NBA player?) and TA (who is largely living off of the potential of one month is he a player or a big numbers bad team guy?)

Posey, PJ, and Sam were more proven commodidties than all of these young guns combined but the "kids" win on upside, but proven commodites make you feel better.

[Roy Hobbs]

See the problem I have with your analysis is right here at the end...James Posey and PJ Brown were not consistently productive players-offensively or defensively...they may very well be more consistent overall than POB/TA/Walker/Miles/Giddens individually, but the latter group is far more talented and there strength is in volume--somebody should get the job done every night-a job requiring very little in all actuality, and for limited minutes as well...

Therein lies the rub, I guess.  I'd much rather have Posey and Brown than any or all five of those guys, if I wanted to maximize my championship chances.  I understand that people love young guys, but sometimes there's a place for proven vets.

Also, I'm not sure why it's a 5-for-2 swap, since we could have made the same draft picks either way, etc.  We could have retained Posey, or replaced Posey with upgrades at other positions, and still kept the rookies.  Instead, we lost Posey and didn't upgrade elsewhere.  I'm not sure how that's something to be overly optimistic about.  Again, it certainly could work out, but the off-season moves certainly didn't maximize our repeat potential.

I agree with you...but the thing is, this off-season is not the only one i'm concerned with...the Celtics have gamed out potential free agents for the next 4-5 years, so they may very well have people ear-marked for next off-season that helped determine their cut-off point for this off-season...at some point you have to do this...i'd rather have a better player one year later...

I think that's the crux of the problem.  As a fan, I'm perfectly happy with two additional years of absolutely prime, maximized championship contention, followed by a lull of however many years.  I'd rather win one championship every ten years and stink the other nine, rather than make the Eastern Conference Finals ten years in a row (an extreme example, I know, but one used for purely illustrative purposes).

I understand why management would feel the opposite way; a perennial playoff team brings in more money than a one-and-done championship team.  However, as a fan, there's a certain sense of frustration.

[shookones99]

  Pruitt (is he really an NBA player?) and TA (who is largely living off of the potential of one month is he a player or a big numbers bad team guy?)

I've never really believed in the big number bad team thing.  I feel like if you can score in the NBA then you can score in the NBA.  Simple as that.  I realize that if a teams offense is running through one player than that player will get a lot of looks but in addition to that the opposing defense will also key in on them.  I feel like they sort of cancel eachother out.  TA has proven he can score and I think he will do it again.