The J.B. Problem Bill Simmons

[KG Living Legend]

A player that is a much better play maker and shooter.  Brown has no elite skills.  He is good to very good at most things, but he just isn't elite at anything and he is worse almost across the board at everything than Tatum.  He provides nothing you can't get from the better player.  He doesn't elevate or compliment Tatum.  I went through the first half of Udoka's season when Brown was in and out of the lineup in chunks (which made this a good experiment), and Tatum's stats were mostly the same, except for his shooting, which increased significantly when Brown wasn't out there and he was paired with a much worse player than Brown, but one that was more complimentary.  And the Celtics during that stretch were 6-7 with Brown and 7-7 without him.  Tatum just plays better when he doesn't share the floor with Brown, which is why Tatum's on/off differential is so much better than Brown's every single year despite them both starting on the same team and playing roughly the same minutes.  The offense stagnates and isn't as dynamic when they both have to get theirs, but when it is just Tatum, it always runs through him and the team just plays better.  There are obviously going to be games where Brown is the difference between winning and losing as he is a very good player, but he doesn't provide the value or impact that someone of his ability should.

Give me some examples of a similar level player you think would be better than Brown.

 I'll play along. Examples are

M. Bridges Nets
Lauri markanen
Desmond Bane

[Yuckabuck33]

The two man game with Brown and Zinger has been good all year. I’d argue they have a better connection than Tatum and Zinger. That offense can sustain us really well early in the game.

But I think Tatum has to learn to be the closer in the second half. He’s pretty inconsistent there.

Overpaid or not, Brown’s talent elevates this team against the best teams in the NBA. He’s always been a really good two-way player against top competition, and inconsistent otherwise.

Every good/great player has clunkers - not really sure if JB has more than his share or average.  But the point of JB in 2023-24 should be your five words: “Brown’s talent elevates this team”. I realize there are a poster or two here that believe this isn’t true and believe the data proves them right. But I’m not buying any argument that this team is better minus JB or ANY of the top six. Yes - there’s likely someone out there who would fit here better than Jaylen, but I’m glad he’s on this team this year - we would be worse without him and he should not get the level of play to play or game to game criticism he gets here. Despite his ongoing adjustments to a changed role, he has all-star numbers (though may not make the team this year) and he’s starting to think pass first - at least some of the time.

For me it is not that he has clunkers, it is that his skill set just doesn't fit well with Tatum.

The win loss record is not proof of your point because correlation is not causation. And I question the conventional idea of "fit." If Tatum and Brown do not have a great two man game or they are redundantina5 man scheme, is that bad? A lot of NBA offense is a patchwork of 2 or 3 man plays. If Jaylen and Zinger play a killer pick and roll 2 man game and Tatum, White, and Holiday develope a killer 3 man game, we could have Tatum and Brown not "fitting" and have the best team in basketball. The "fitness" of 2 players on a team can be irrelevant to team.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

A player that is a much better play maker and shooter.  Brown has no elite skills.  He is good to very good at most things, but he just isn't elite at anything and he is worse almost across the board at everything than Tatum.  He provides nothing you can't get from the better player.  He doesn't elevate or compliment Tatum.  I went through the first half of Udoka's season when Brown was in and out of the lineup in chunks (which made this a good experiment), and Tatum's stats were mostly the same, except for his shooting, which increased significantly when Brown wasn't out there and he was paired with a much worse player than Brown, but one that was more complimentary.  And the Celtics during that stretch were 6-7 with Brown and 7-7 without him.  Tatum just plays better when he doesn't share the floor with Brown, which is why Tatum's on/off differential is so much better than Brown's every single year despite them both starting on the same team and playing roughly the same minutes.  The offense stagnates and isn't as dynamic when they both have to get theirs, but when it is just Tatum, it always runs through him and the team just plays better.  There are obviously going to be games where Brown is the difference between winning and losing as he is a very good player, but he doesn't provide the value or impact that someone of his ability should.

Give me some examples of a similar level player you think would be better than Brown.

 I'll play along. Examples are

M. Bridges Nets
Lauri markanen
Desmond Bane

So this is what I struggle with. I take Brown over all three.

Bane is not a better player than Brown and Markannen can't guard anyone. Both players would be defensive gaps in the playoffs. If you plugged either player into our lineup right now, either would be under 18ppg and could not provide the one-on-one defensive versatility that Brown does.

I could see how you could argue something about Bridges. But here's the struggle. The version of Bridges right now is not a better fit than Brown. The version of him when he played for the Suns might have been a great fit, but wasn't a better player than Brown. Bridges hasn't figured out how to play next to other high level scorers while being a high-level scorer himself and playing high level defense.

I would argue that Brown has more value than any of those players around the league right now. Plus, we don't have any kind of reliable playoff pedigree from those players.

If there was a player with similar talent that would fit in better, I could talk myself into it. But the players who get suggested on here consistently are not as talented and would not be as effective in big games.

[KG Living Legend]

A player that is a much better play maker and shooter.  Brown has no elite skills.  He is good to very good at most things, but he just isn't elite at anything and he is worse almost across the board at everything than Tatum.  He provides nothing you can't get from the better player.  He doesn't elevate or compliment Tatum.  I went through the first half of Udoka's season when Brown was in and out of the lineup in chunks (which made this a good experiment), and Tatum's stats were mostly the same, except for his shooting, which increased significantly when Brown wasn't out there and he was paired with a much worse player than Brown, but one that was more complimentary.  And the Celtics during that stretch were 6-7 with Brown and 7-7 without him.  Tatum just plays better when he doesn't share the floor with Brown, which is why Tatum's on/off differential is so much better than Brown's every single year despite them both starting on the same team and playing roughly the same minutes.  The offense stagnates and isn't as dynamic when they both have to get theirs, but when it is just Tatum, it always runs through him and the team just plays better.  There are obviously going to be games where Brown is the difference between winning and losing as he is a very good player, but he doesn't provide the value or impact that someone of his ability should.

Give me some examples of a similar level player you think would be better than Brown.

 I'll play along. Examples are

M. Bridges Nets
Lauri markanen
Desmond Bane

So this is what I struggle with. I take Brown over all three.

Bane is not a better player than Brown and Markannen can't guard anyone. Both players would be defensive gaps in the playoffs. If you plugged either player into our lineup right now, either would be under 18ppg and could not provide the one-on-one defensive versatility that Brown does.

I could see how you could argue something about Bridges. But here's the struggle. The version of Bridges right now is not a better fit than Brown. The version of him when he played for the Suns might have been a great fit, but wasn't a better player than Brown. Bridges hasn't figured out how to play next to other high level scorers while being a high-level scorer himself and playing high level defense.

I would argue that Brown has more value than any of those players around the league right now. Plus, we don't have any kind of reliable playoff pedigree from those players.

If there was a player with similar talent that would fit in better, I could talk myself into it. But the players who get suggested on here consistently are not as talented and would not be as effective in big games.

 Brown for Lauri you hand to think long and hard about.

Porzingis
Markanen
Tatum
White
Holiday

 That would be a nightmare for other teams and swallow them up with size and on the glass. Plus with Horford getting old your front court just got a lot younger.

 Slide Hauser in and drop a big if you need to Play smaller.

[cman88]

I keep seeing people talking about Jaylen browns contract.

Define overpaid? In the scheme of what you believe he should make he is. In the scheme of the current realities of the market and what players are going to make going forward he is not.

Already he's not the top paid player. Anthony Davis makes more, giannis makes more with their new contracts. And as each year goes by he will move further and further down the list.

If we want to complain that the NBA salaries are out of control. Sure. But when guys like lamelo ball are making $43million on a rookie extension. Browns salary not that crazy

[DefenseWinsChamps]

A player that is a much better play maker and shooter.  Brown has no elite skills.  He is good to very good at most things, but he just isn't elite at anything and he is worse almost across the board at everything than Tatum.  He provides nothing you can't get from the better player.  He doesn't elevate or compliment Tatum.  I went through the first half of Udoka's season when Brown was in and out of the lineup in chunks (which made this a good experiment), and Tatum's stats were mostly the same, except for his shooting, which increased significantly when Brown wasn't out there and he was paired with a much worse player than Brown, but one that was more complimentary.  And the Celtics during that stretch were 6-7 with Brown and 7-7 without him.  Tatum just plays better when he doesn't share the floor with Brown, which is why Tatum's on/off differential is so much better than Brown's every single year despite them both starting on the same team and playing roughly the same minutes.  The offense stagnates and isn't as dynamic when they both have to get theirs, but when it is just Tatum, it always runs through him and the team just plays better.  There are obviously going to be games where Brown is the difference between winning and losing as he is a very good player, but he doesn't provide the value or impact that someone of his ability should.

Give me some examples of a similar level player you think would be better than Brown.

 I'll play along. Examples are

M. Bridges Nets
Lauri markanen
Desmond Bane

So this is what I struggle with. I take Brown over all three.

Bane is not a better player than Brown and Markannen can't guard anyone. Both players would be defensive gaps in the playoffs. If you plugged either player into our lineup right now, either would be under 18ppg and could not provide the one-on-one defensive versatility that Brown does.

I could see how you could argue something about Bridges. But here's the struggle. The version of Bridges right now is not a better fit than Brown. The version of him when he played for the Suns might have been a great fit, but wasn't a better player than Brown. Bridges hasn't figured out how to play next to other high level scorers while being a high-level scorer himself and playing high level defense.

I would argue that Brown has more value than any of those players around the league right now. Plus, we don't have any kind of reliable playoff pedigree from those players.

If there was a player with similar talent that would fit in better, I could talk myself into it. But the players who get suggested on here consistently are not as talented and would not be as effective in big games.

 Brown for Lauri you hand to think long and hard about.

Porzingis
Markanen
Tatum
White
Holiday

 That would be a nightmare for other teams and swallow them up with size and on the glass. Plus with Horford getting old your front court just got a lot younger.

 Slide Hauser in and drop a big if you need to Play smaller.

I don't have to think about it. No.

Markennan gets eaten alive by other teams best forwards. Brown has played an integral role on our team defending them.

Markennan was only able to get to 25ppg on a lottery team. They wouldn't be force-feeding him on this roster.

Markennan is a good player - even a player that I had wanted for us at different times, but he's not on Brown's level.

[Vermont Green]

If I am understanding correctly, the argument for trading Jaylen Brown is that he is redundant or duplicative of Tatum and therefore not an ideal fit or maybe even a bad fit.  Last season, I could buy this argument to some extent.  To have a skilled big over Brown (of similar talent) would be a better fit.  Or more of a ballhandler/PG over Brown.  But those two roles have been filled (Holiday and Porzingis) with players that have plenty of talent.

So now names like Markkanen and Mikal Bridges and Bane are being thrown out.  Taking Markkanen first, isn't he every bit as redundant or duplicative of Porzingis that Brown is of Tatum?  It doesn't make any sense to pair Markkanen with Porzingis.  And how are Bridges and Bane any less duplicative of Tatum than Brown? And I don't think it is clear that either Bridges or Bane are better than Brown.

This is the problem with the argument.  There is no longer any need to trade Brown for a better ball handler type or a big.  Those slots are filled and tough to upgrade on (presuming Jokic is not available).  I just don't see who you would get  for Brown right now that would make the team better or more balanced.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

If I am understanding correctly, the argument for trading Jaylen Brown is that he is redundant or duplicative of Tatum and therefore not an ideal fit or maybe even a bad fit.  Last season, I could buy this argument to some extent.  To have a skilled big over Brown (of similar talent) would be a better fit.  Or more of a ballhandler/PG over Brown.  But those two roles have been filled (Holiday and Porzingis) with players that have plenty of talent.

So now names like Markkanen and Mikal Bridges and Bane are being thrown out.  Taking Markkanen first, isn't he every bit as redundant or duplicative of Porzingis that Brown is of Tatum?  It doesn't make any sense to pair Markkanen with Porzingis.  And how are Bridges and Bane any less duplicative of Tatum than Brown? And I don't think it is clear that either Bridges or Bane are better than Brown.

This is the problem with the argument.  There is no longer any need to trade Brown for a better ball handler type or a big.  Those slots are filled and tough to upgrade on (presuming Jokic is not available).  I just don't see who you would get  for Brown right now that would make the team better or more balanced.

This is the point I was driving to slowly. Who is the player on a similar level to Brown that would be a better fit? I just don't see any.

I also think this reflects really well on Stevens. We all thought he'd need to trade Brown to fill out the roster better around Tatum. He did not. He got two all-stars without trading Brown or Tatum while keeping two of the best role players in the NBA.

[Vermont Green]

If I am understanding correctly, the argument for trading Jaylen Brown is that he is redundant or duplicative of Tatum and therefore not an ideal fit or maybe even a bad fit.  Last season, I could buy this argument to some extent.  To have a skilled big over Brown (of similar talent) would be a better fit.  Or more of a ballhandler/PG over Brown.  But those two roles have been filled (Holiday and Porzingis) with players that have plenty of talent.

So now names like Markkanen and Mikal Bridges and Bane are being thrown out.  Taking Markkanen first, isn't he every bit as redundant or duplicative of Porzingis that Brown is of Tatum?  It doesn't make any sense to pair Markkanen with Porzingis.  And how are Bridges and Bane any less duplicative of Tatum than Brown? And I don't think it is clear that either Bridges or Bane are better than Brown.

This is the problem with the argument.  There is no longer any need to trade Brown for a better ball handler type or a big.  Those slots are filled and tough to upgrade on (presuming Jokic is not available).  I just don't see who you would get  for Brown right now that would make the team better or more balanced.

This is the point I was driving to slowly. Who is the player on a similar level to Brown that would be a better fit? I just don't see any.

I also think this reflects really well on Stevens. We all thought he'd need to trade Brown to fill out the roster better around Tatum. He did not. He got two all-stars without trading Brown or Tatum while keeping two of the best role players in the NBA.

It is funny how quickly the whole roster equation has changed.  Last season, I would have been very open to trading Brown for say Towns, to get that skilled big we needed to balance the roster better.  Well, Stevens got the roster balanced without trading Brown, just as you say.

I am hoping that the MIL game is a harbinger by Brown as to the way he is going to try and play moving forward.  Efficient scoring, check.  Take care of the ball, check.  Get others involved, check.  Solid, multi-positional defense, check.  He checked all the boxes to be the perfect complementary player not just for Tatum, but Porzingis and Holiday too.  If he can continue that, I am not sure there is any realistic trade that is going to result in a better player for this team.  Seems to be saying the right things:

Jay King: Jaylen Brown on his playmaking tonight: “Definitely just another part of my game that I’ve been growing. This is a new year, it’s a new season and I feel like I’m playing some of my best basketball just how I’m seeing the floor. And as I get into the flow and the rhythm of things I feel like I’ll be able to continue to do that. I think when I get going, more guys playing off me, trusting that I’m going to make the right read, I think we should go to that a lot more.” 1 day ago – via Twitter ByJayKing

[Kuberski33]

A player that is a much better play maker and shooter.  Brown has no elite skills. 

His ability to get to the basket in transition is elite - arguably best in the league. If he gets even a half step on a defender he'll finish against anyone - Giannis included. He is also very good from beyond the arc in transition situations.

A guy like that needs a point guard and I do think Holiday is an improvement over Smart in terms of getting Jaylen the ball in places where he's most effective.

 

[liam]

A player that is a much better play maker and shooter.  Brown has no elite skills. 

His ability to get to the basket in transition is elite - arguably best in the league. If he gets even a half step on a defender he'll finish against anyone - Giannis included. He is also very good from beyond the arc in transition situations.

A guy like that needs a point guard and I do think Holiday is an improvement over Smart in terms of getting Jaylen the ball in places where he's most effective.

 

Who is this player who is much better than Jaylen and a better playmaker and
shooter? Then, why would a team trade this player for Jaylen?

[Moranis]

A player that is a much better play maker and shooter.  Brown has no elite skills. 

His ability to get to the basket in transition is elite - arguably best in the league. If he gets even a half step on a defender he'll finish against anyone - Giannis included. He is also very good from beyond the arc in transition situations.

A guy like that needs a point guard and I do think Holiday is an improvement over Smart in terms of getting Jaylen the ball in places where he's most effective.

 

Who is this player who is much better than Jaylen and a better playmaker and
shooter? Then, why would a team trade this player for Jaylen?

a better playmaker and/or shooter doesn't mean a better overall player. In fact, I've long said that a lesser player that was a better fit would be better.  Same argument I had on here when we had Kyrie. The numbers didn't support Kyrie as being impactful and I was a big proponent of trading him. I was absolutely correct about that as well.  Historically on/off differential is the best indicator or a players value.  Brown just isn't impactful to winning and losing and Tatum plays better when he doesn't play.

As for trades, I was all for Simons and 3 for  Brown over the summer. No idea if that was on the table, but I would have done it.  Simons not as good as Brown, but I thought he was a better fit and then you add Scoot as well.  Other trades that make some level if sense this summer would be Ingram or Zion, Davis, George, Murray +, Garland or Mitchell, OG and Trent (drfat pick), Randle and Hart, etc. Maybe an expected team ends up with a lottery pick this summer, so you get that lottery pick and then some vets for dollars (so similar to the Blazers trade above).

[ozgod]

Haven't watched the Magic game yet but it looks like Jaylen has gone from zero to hero back to zero again?

[green_bballers13]

Haven't watched the Magic game yet but it looks like Jaylen has gone from zero to hero back to zero again?

Doesn't that say more about the childish fans vs reality? How can one regular season game have so much importance?

[Vermont Green]

a better playmaker and/or shooter doesn't mean a better overall player. In fact, I've long said that a lesser player that was a better fit would be better.  Same argument I had on here when we had Kyrie. The numbers didn't support Kyrie as being impactful and I was a big proponent of trading him. I was absolutely correct about that as well.  Historically on/off differential is the best indicator or a players value.  Brown just isn't impactful to winning and losing and Tatum plays better when he doesn't play.

As for trades, I was all for Simons and 3 for  Brown over the summer. No idea if that was on the table, but I would have done it.  Simons not as good as Brown, but I thought he was a better fit and then you add Scoot as well.  Other trades that make some level if sense this summer would be Ingram or Zion, Davis, George, Murray +, Garland or Mitchell, OG and Trent (drfat pick), Randle and Hart, etc. Maybe an expected team ends up with a lottery pick this summer, so you get that lottery pick and then some vets for dollars (so similar to the Blazers trade above).

If we had a chance to do a trade of Brown for a player as good as Simons and a pick as high as the POR pick was, that could be a good trade.  Probably doesn't make the team better in the short term though.  Zion?, sure, if he stays healthy for a season, he would add some much needed size but why would NOP do this?

All the rest are pretty much why bother.  You are trying to fix a perceived problem of Tatum and Brown being too similar (I guess) by bringing in other players that are no less similar or who are similar to Holiday or White or someone else, and who in many cases are lesser players in the first place.  Ingram?  Is he less duplicative?  Is he better?  Garland?  Isn't he just another small'ish combo guard doing pretty much what Holiday and White do already?  And so on....