Rozier is one of those dudes that can't make the adjustment from being 'the man' to a role player in the big leagues. Makes him entertaining as heck to watch imo, but probably doesn't bode well for his future.
Didn't catch his heroics tonight outside of the highlight, but I think it fits well with this perspective.
He's 23. I'm going to be open minded with him.
Does your intuition tell you otherwise? He's similar to the many others before him that had the irrational confidence gene. He hasn't adapted well to his role player status in the NBA, but he surprises you with big time plays from time to time. My other hot take has been: "Rozier's most endearing quality is his ability to hit ill-advised shots."
And yes, he also happens to be 23 years old. Doesn't make any of the above less true.
I don't get the criticisms.
Every win related advanced metric that I've seen indicates that Terry Rozier has a positive impact on this team's ability to win games on BOTH ends of the court:
* Defensive RPM: +0.36
* Offensive RPM: +0.84
* Overall RPM: +1.20 (15th among PG)
* Off Rating: 106
* Def Rating: 102
* Net Rating: +4
* Box Plus Minus: +0.7
* VORP: +0.5
* WS: +1.8
* WS/48: 0.116
There are very few NBA PG's who measure this well in advanced metrics at the age of 23 - especially for somebody who's had such a limited role since entering the league.
As for the criticisms that he hasn't adjusted well to being a role player - on what basis? Is he wreckless with the ball? Does he play too much hero ball? Does he commit stupid fouls?
The answer to all of the above is not really, no.
His turnover rate is historically low for a PG (Rozier spends 75% of his minutes at PG) and primary ball handler. So far this year, in 30 games, he has committed only 4 turnovers as a result of bad passes and only 9 as a result of lost balls. That's 13 turnovers from bad passes and loose handles combined, not even one every second game. So it's clear he doesn't play out of control or beyond his ability.
Personal fouls? Only 2.1 Per 36 minutes. That indicates that he's really quite disciplined not only on offense, but also on defence - and that's despite the fact that he is very active (and even quite aggressive) on defence.
Too much hero ball? If there was any criticism you could make for Rozier this would be it, and I'm not denying that his 38% FG percentage could use some improvement. But biggest reason for that is not due to poor shot selection. Rozier is shooting 53% from 10-16 feet, a somewhat respectable 37% from outside 16 feet, and 36% from three. His jumper has actually been pretty darn good.
His poor FG% is largely the result of his struggles finishing around the basket - he's shooting only 42% inside 3 feet. So ironically the shots he's struggling most with are not the difficult ones, but the easy ones.
Rozier is only 23 years old, and prior to this season he had averaged 13.9 MPG over a total of 113 games for his entire NBA career. He's been given very few opportunities to play meaningful minutes up until this season, so if the only major weakness in his game is his ability to finish at the basket - I'm not especially concerned about that. How long did it take Avery Bradley to become a half capable finisher around the basket? And yet last season he shot over 60% inside 3 feet.
What I'm more conscious of is the fact that this is practically his second year (given he pretty much didn't play his rookie year) and already he's out there proving that he can make a positive impact on the win column on both ends of the court.
Already he's showing flashes of a quality jumpshot, and flashes of being able to carry the team in short bursts offensively.
Already he's showing an ability to impact the game with his length, athleticism and anticipation on the defensive end of the court.
Already he's proving, at 6'2", to be one of the best rebounding guards in the league.
Already he's proving, as a 23 year old with very little NBA experience, that he is a big time clutch performer who lives for the big moments.
There aren't many young point guards in the NBA who have shown all of those things as early in their career (experience wise) as Rozier is. Avery Bradley was a huge impact player for this team for years, and yet Rozier has more upside/potential then Bradley in every just about every area of the game (bar defence - maybe).
Lets give this kid a chance. He has fire in his heart and ice in his veins - he already shows huge promise in so many areas that cannot be taught (clutch play, defensive instincts, toughness, rebounding instincts, hustle, desire to win, athleticism, length, body control). All he needs is experience - with the right opportunities and under the right teacher (which he has in Stevens) this kid could become a special player.