How many games will Kyrie play in '17-18?

[tarheelsxxiii]

Aside from the massive turnover this off-season, Kyrie's health may be the most influential factor in the team's success in '17-18.

In 6 seasons, Kyrie has averaged 63.5 games played, with quite a bit of variability across seasons (51, 59, 71, 75, 53, 72). After adjusting for games/season, two SDs below his average brings us to ~45 games, and 75 matches his highest total in 6 years.

So, how many games do you think Kyrie will play this year, and why?

 

[LilRip]

I'd put it around 68-70. I do think he'll miss at least a couple of weeks this season. I'd be surprised f he misses a playoff game though.

[tarheelsxxiii]

Here's a graphic of his injuries through (I think) 2015:



Looks like Cavs fans have wondered if he has suffered fluke injuries or is just injury-prone for years. His left knee issues look to be the only consistent issue, but that is a lot of injuries..

[Boris Badenov]

Last year might have been his healthiest - I think a fair number of those missed games were actually for rest.

He does seem to get dinged up though. I think given his career so far you'd hope for 65+ and be really happy with 70+ (and rested/healthy for the playoffs).

Fun facts: from 83-86, about 85 players each year played 80+ games, and about 40 played all 82.

From 14-17, about 50 played 80+, and about 20 played all 82.

So you can really see the influence of rest, I think. (I don't see any evidence that players in 1983 were in better shape or had better medical care.)

I picked some other years and it looks like a steady downward trend.

Even stronger if you adjust for number of teams. (23 teams then vs 30 now).

[Androslav]

Here's a graphic of his injuries through (I think) 2015:



Looks like Cavs fans have wondered if he has suffered fluke injuries or is just injury-prone for years. His left knee issues look to be the only consistent issue, but that is a lot of injuries.

Helpful pic.
I am much more interested in the hip-down area, lower extremities, as I think that will determine his durability and longevity. He had a few knee injuries, but I think there is no huge long term risk there.

[Bucketgetter]

What about his broken kneecap during the finals?

[Roy H.]

None of those other injuries occurred under Brad Stevens, so I'm not worried about them.

[Darío SpanishFan]

What will be the lottery number tomorrow? 

[TheReaLPuba]

Here's a graphic of his injuries through (I think) 2015:



Looks like Cavs fans have wondered if he has suffered fluke injuries or is just injury-prone for years. His left knee issues look to be the only consistent issue, but that is a lot of injuries.

Helpful pic.
I am much more interested in the hip-down area, lower extremities, as I think that will determine his durability and longevity. He had a few knee injuries, but I think there is no huge long term risk there.

The risk is he's never been a healthy player.

When you can't play it doesn't matter if you're one of the greatest ball handlers or scorers in the league...you can't be depended on.

[The One]

More than IT!

 

[rocknrollforyoursoul]

More than IT!

 

Dang! You beat me to it!

[Rosco917]

More than IT!

 

^=TP

[tarheelsxxiii]

More than IT!

 

While funny, and probably true, there's really not concrete evidence that IT couldn't play most of this season.  It also behooves CLE to rest him for as long as possible, and they have the luxury to.

[tarheelsxxiii]

So the majority of posters thus far believe Kyrie's going to play somewhere between 7 and 12 games more than his 6-year season average.  Seems like every other year he plays 50-55 games, so why are we assuming the best?  Or is it more that we're hoping for the best? 

[jambr380]

So the majority of posters thus far believe Kyrie's going to play somewhere between 7 and 12 games more than his 6-year season average.  Seems like every other year he plays 50-55 games, so why are we assuming the best?  Or is it more that we're hoping for the best?

I don't think it is unreasonable to assume that a relatively healthy basketball player will play more than 70 games in a season. Of course injuries do happen - Horford only played a total of 68 games after that ghastly hit on the head from Zeller - but the expectation here is that Kyrie will be our starting PG for the vast majority of games.

Frankly, I probably would have voted 76-82 if the option was there.