Speculation on why we may be underachieving

[jpotter33]

Another issue: the pace. we're a very average team this year in terms of our pace, when last year we were top 5 or top 3 i think. we had a high pace due to the fact that we were forcing a lot of turnovers and were getting in the fast break. however, since our defense has been so bad, we aren't forcing as many turnovers and as a result our pace is low. Brad said it himself at the start of the season, that he believed we would be "flying around" or something. That hasn't happened yet.

not sure what's up with our defense overall though. were Sully and Turner really that important to our defense? so important that Horford and Brown make us this much worse on defense?

TP. You're spot on regarding pace.

As for Sully and Turner, I think their presence is missed in other areas more than defense, primarily rebounding and scoring off the bench. However, I think much of our defensive problem does ultimately come down to rebounding, because we're actually pretty close to last year's statistics on most other defensive categories.

Hell, we even have three guys in the top 8 for position in DRPM this year so far - Smart top-5 in point guards, Crowder top-8 in small forwards, and Horford top-5 in centers (though he's technically been our PF all season long). Horford is even 9th overall in the league for DRPM.

So I honestly think most of it truly comes down to defensive rebounding, which we're absolutely terrible at.

[alldaboston]

Another issue: the pace. we're a very average team this year in terms of our pace, when last year we were top 5 or top 3 i think. we had a high pace due to the fact that we were forcing a lot of turnovers and were getting in the fast break. however, since our defense has been so bad, we aren't forcing as many turnovers and as a result our pace is low. Brad said it himself at the start of the season, that he believed we would be "flying around" or something. That hasn't happened yet.

not sure what's up with our defense overall though. were Sully and Turner really that important to our defense? so important that Horford and Brown make us this much worse on defense?

TP. You're spot on regarding pace.

As for Sully and Turner, I think their presence is missed in other areas more than defense, primarily rebounding and scoring off the bench. However, I think much of our defensive problem does ultimately come down to rebounding, because we're actually pretty close to last year's statistics on most other defensive categories.

Hell, we even have three guys in the top 8 for position in DRPM this year so far - Smart top-5 in point guards, Crowder top-8 in small forwards, and Horford top-5 in centers (though he's technically been our PF all season long). Horford is even 9th overall in the league for DRPM.

So I honestly think most of it truly comes down to defensive rebounding, which we're absolutely terrible at.

TP back at you for these stats. I know i sound like a broken record, but Bogut just makes so much sense. I really hope Danny tries to get him. He would certainly help with the rebounding, and is a solid defensive big. hell, he leads all centers in DRPM, and is second overall only to Draymond

[PhoSita]

The simple answer is rebounds and turnovers.

The Celts stink on the boards and they're not forcing enough turnovers to make up for it.

[Moranis]

I think a more interesting question might be simply "are we underachieving or are achieving about what this team should be achieving?".

I think we are one player away from being the 55 win team that many think we are the underachieving version of.  We need a starting PF and that will improve or starters and provide additional front court depth.  A team like Detroit kills us.  San Antonio's bench bigs killed us.

Horford, Amir, Olynyk, and Zeller just isn't enough.

I still don't buy this narrative that we overachieved last year and are achieving about where we should be this year.

There's clearly a lack of defensive intensity from last year. I think our starting unit defense is much worse than it was last year, which is surprising given our upgrades in personnel. I think we just focus way too much on trying to outscore the opponent rather than stopping them. Some of this can be put on Amir's significant drop in play, but IT, AB, and Jae have all performed significantly worse defensively than last year, and adding players like Brown and Rozier into the rotation also hurts our D.

Boston is only giving up 2 more ppg than last year which when you consider the injuries to Crowder and Horford, isn't bad at all.

Given the injuries 10-8 is a pretty good spot for Boston to be in.

Oh, I agree we're in a decent spot for the injuries we've had.

And perhaps with more time together as a healthy unit we'll get back to our defensive ways. But as it stands now, we're just not the same defensive team that we were last year, and our priorities as a team seem to have shifted dramatically.

But you are ignoring the injuries in your analysis.  Since Crowder came back in the first Detroit game, Boston has had the following results

Wins while giving up 92, 93, 92, 104
Losses while giving up 109, 121

The 104 win was without Horford.  The 109 loss was the 3rd best team in basketball and was a 5 point loss.  The 121 was obviously last night against Detroit, but Boston is always going to struggle a bit against a team with a guy like Drummond in the paint (and Boston got killed on the boards 52-33), and thus that is more an aberration. 

But the thing is last year Boston gave up 102.5 ppg good for 13th in the league (scoring 105.7 good for 5th).  Thus far this year Boston is giving up 104.4 ppg which is 16th (scoring 105 which is 12th).  When you consider that Boston lost Horford for 10 games, Crowder for 8 games, Olynyk for 6 games, and Smart for 3 games, it doesn't really seem to me that Boston has lost much of anything (aside from some rebounding without Sullinger).  Boston was a mediocre defense last year and is a mediocre defense this year, however Boston was a near elite offense last year and this year is mediocre.  That seems to be the bigger concern.

[Rivers23]

Celts had 5 turnovers last night, Detroit had 11, that's not the problem. If you look at rebounding, you may think wow Detroit blew Celtics away, but they only had 4 offensive rebounds more, they were simply shooting a good percentage so the number of defensive rebounds available to the Celtics was limited.

This is the real problem: 15-42 3pt shooting last night, that's just ridiculous, rebounding can't compensate for that. Secondly, bad shots and absolutely no mid range game, correct me if I'm wrong.

[alldaboston]

I think a more interesting question might be simply "are we underachieving or are achieving about what this team should be achieving?".

I think we are one player away from being the 55 win team that many think we are the underachieving version of.  We need a starting PF and that will improve or starters and provide additional front court depth.  A team like Detroit kills us.  San Antonio's bench bigs killed us.

Horford, Amir, Olynyk, and Zeller just isn't enough.

I still don't buy this narrative that we overachieved last year and are achieving about where we should be this year.

There's clearly a lack of defensive intensity from last year. I think our starting unit defense is much worse than it was last year, which is surprising given our upgrades in personnel. I think we just focus way too much on trying to outscore the opponent rather than stopping them. Some of this can be put on Amir's significant drop in play, but IT, AB, and Jae have all performed significantly worse defensively than last year, and adding players like Brown and Rozier into the rotation also hurts our D.

Boston is only giving up 2 more ppg than last year which when you consider the injuries to Crowder and Horford, isn't bad at all.

Given the injuries 10-8 is a pretty good spot for Boston to be in.

Oh, I agree we're in a decent spot for the injuries we've had.

And perhaps with more time together as a healthy unit we'll get back to our defensive ways. But as it stands now, we're just not the same defensive team that we were last year, and our priorities as a team seem to have shifted dramatically.

But you are ignoring the injuries in your analysis.  Since Crowder came back in the first Detroit game, Boston has had the following results

Wins while giving up 92, 93, 92, 104
Losses while giving up 109, 121

The 104 win was without Horford.  The 109 loss was the 3rd best team in basketball and was a 5 point loss.  The 121 was obviously last night against Detroit, but Boston is always going to struggle a bit against a team with a guy like Drummond in the paint (and Boston got killed on the boards 52-33), and thus that is more an aberration. 

But the thing is last year Boston gave up 102.5 ppg good for 13th in the league (scoring 105.7 good for 5th).  Thus far this year Boston is giving up 104.4 ppg which is 16th (scoring 105 which is 12th).  When you consider that Boston lost Horford for 10 games, Crowder for 8 games, Olynyk for 6 games, and Smart for 3 games, it doesn't really seem to me that Boston has lost much of anything (aside from some rebounding without Sullinger).  Boston was a mediocre defense last year and is a mediocre defense this year, however Boston was a near elite offense last year and this year is mediocre.  That seems to be the bigger concern.

The problem with those number, though, is the pace again. Maybe better numbers to compare would be offensive and defensive rating, rather than points in a game.

Since we had such a fast pace last year, we had more possessions in games, so both those numbers are higher. However, looking at offensive and defensive rating per 100 possessions doesn't depend on pace as much. I'm on my phone, so I can't find the data now, but I would guess that it'd be more so along what we expect it to be.

[jbpats]

Surprised nobody has stated the obvious (on top of injuries and rebounding).

Aside from Golden State and Cleveland, the overall balance of talent across the teams in the NBA is closer than it has been for quite a while. It was not too long ago where the second best team in the East would have been lucky to make the playoffs out of the West. Right now I’d say the two conferences are very close to even, especially in the middle of the pack.
One could argue that 2-10 in the East right now are very close to equal from a talent persepective.

That being said as things are finally evening out there are a lot less “gimmies” night in and night out.

I personally love how there is so much balance these days.. I think it’s exciting. Even though teams outside of the mistake by the lake or San Fran are simply playing for second.

[Moranis]

I think a more interesting question might be simply "are we underachieving or are achieving about what this team should be achieving?".

I think we are one player away from being the 55 win team that many think we are the underachieving version of.  We need a starting PF and that will improve or starters and provide additional front court depth.  A team like Detroit kills us.  San Antonio's bench bigs killed us.

Horford, Amir, Olynyk, and Zeller just isn't enough.

I still don't buy this narrative that we overachieved last year and are achieving about where we should be this year.

There's clearly a lack of defensive intensity from last year. I think our starting unit defense is much worse than it was last year, which is surprising given our upgrades in personnel. I think we just focus way too much on trying to outscore the opponent rather than stopping them. Some of this can be put on Amir's significant drop in play, but IT, AB, and Jae have all performed significantly worse defensively than last year, and adding players like Brown and Rozier into the rotation also hurts our D.

Boston is only giving up 2 more ppg than last year which when you consider the injuries to Crowder and Horford, isn't bad at all.

Given the injuries 10-8 is a pretty good spot for Boston to be in.

Oh, I agree we're in a decent spot for the injuries we've had.

And perhaps with more time together as a healthy unit we'll get back to our defensive ways. But as it stands now, we're just not the same defensive team that we were last year, and our priorities as a team seem to have shifted dramatically.

But you are ignoring the injuries in your analysis.  Since Crowder came back in the first Detroit game, Boston has had the following results

Wins while giving up 92, 93, 92, 104
Losses while giving up 109, 121

The 104 win was without Horford.  The 109 loss was the 3rd best team in basketball and was a 5 point loss.  The 121 was obviously last night against Detroit, but Boston is always going to struggle a bit against a team with a guy like Drummond in the paint (and Boston got killed on the boards 52-33), and thus that is more an aberration. 

But the thing is last year Boston gave up 102.5 ppg good for 13th in the league (scoring 105.7 good for 5th).  Thus far this year Boston is giving up 104.4 ppg which is 16th (scoring 105 which is 12th).  When you consider that Boston lost Horford for 10 games, Crowder for 8 games, Olynyk for 6 games, and Smart for 3 games, it doesn't really seem to me that Boston has lost much of anything (aside from some rebounding without Sullinger).  Boston was a mediocre defense last year and is a mediocre defense this year, however Boston was a near elite offense last year and this year is mediocre.  That seems to be the bigger concern.

The problem with those number, though, is the pace again. Maybe better numbers to compare would be offensive and defensive rating, rather than points in a game.

Since we had such a fast pace last year, we had more possessions in games, so both those numbers are higher. However, looking at offensive and defensive rating per 100 possessions doesn't depend on pace as much. I'm on my phone, so I can't find the data now, but I would guess that it'd be more so along what we expect it to be.

This year
Off Rtg: 109.3 (9th of 30) Def Rtg: 108.6 (22nd of 30)

Last year
Off Rtg: 106.8 (10th of 30) Def Rtg: 103.6 (4th of 30)

So yeah a bit more dramatic on the defense, but again when factoring in injuries, it isn't that surprising, especially with the dramatic improvement since Crowder and Horford were back in the lineup (Detroit is the only bad defensive game).

[jpotter33]

I think a more interesting question might be simply "are we underachieving or are achieving about what this team should be achieving?".

I think we are one player away from being the 55 win team that many think we are the underachieving version of.  We need a starting PF and that will improve or starters and provide additional front court depth.  A team like Detroit kills us.  San Antonio's bench bigs killed us.

Horford, Amir, Olynyk, and Zeller just isn't enough.

I still don't buy this narrative that we overachieved last year and are achieving about where we should be this year.

There's clearly a lack of defensive intensity from last year. I think our starting unit defense is much worse than it was last year, which is surprising given our upgrades in personnel. I think we just focus way too much on trying to outscore the opponent rather than stopping them. Some of this can be put on Amir's significant drop in play, but IT, AB, and Jae have all performed significantly worse defensively than last year, and adding players like Brown and Rozier into the rotation also hurts our D.

Boston is only giving up 2 more ppg than last year which when you consider the injuries to Crowder and Horford, isn't bad at all.

Given the injuries 10-8 is a pretty good spot for Boston to be in.

Oh, I agree we're in a decent spot for the injuries we've had.

And perhaps with more time together as a healthy unit we'll get back to our defensive ways. But as it stands now, we're just not the same defensive team that we were last year, and our priorities as a team seem to have shifted dramatically.

But you are ignoring the injuries in your analysis.  Since Crowder came back in the first Detroit game, Boston has had the following results

Wins while giving up 92, 93, 92, 104
Losses while giving up 109, 121

The 104 win was without Horford.  The 109 loss was the 3rd best team in basketball and was a 5 point loss.  The 121 was obviously last night against Detroit, but Boston is always going to struggle a bit against a team with a guy like Drummond in the paint (and Boston got killed on the boards 52-33), and thus that is more an aberration. 

But the thing is last year Boston gave up 102.5 ppg good for 13th in the league (scoring 105.7 good for 5th).  Thus far this year Boston is giving up 104.4 ppg which is 16th (scoring 105 which is 12th).  When you consider that Boston lost Horford for 10 games, Crowder for 8 games, Olynyk for 6 games, and Smart for 3 games, it doesn't really seem to me that Boston has lost much of anything (aside from some rebounding without Sullinger). Boston was a mediocre defense last year and is a mediocre defense this year, however Boston was a near elite offense last year and this year is mediocre.  That seems to be the bigger concern.

This narrative just does not bear out at all statistically. In fact, they're the exact opposite. We were an elite defensive team last year (4th in defensive efficiency) and are a mediocre defense so far this year (21st in defensive efficiency). https://www.teamrankings.com/nba/stat/defensive-efficiency?date=2016-06-20

Further, our offense was pretty mediocre last year (17th in offensive efficiency) and is actually pretty good overall this year (8th in offensive efficiency).

Pho's post sums it up pretty well. Our rebounding and lesser turnover creation percentage, both of which are defensive issues, are the major significant differences from last year, with overall an increase in offensive efficiency. Being fully healthy will certainly help with this, but the rebounding is an issue we're going to have to deal with and the forced turnovers are going to take a change in focus and overall up in defensive intensity.

[alldaboston]

I think a more interesting question might be simply "are we underachieving or are achieving about what this team should be achieving?".

I think we are one player away from being the 55 win team that many think we are the underachieving version of.  We need a starting PF and that will improve or starters and provide additional front court depth.  A team like Detroit kills us.  San Antonio's bench bigs killed us.

Horford, Amir, Olynyk, and Zeller just isn't enough.

I still don't buy this narrative that we overachieved last year and are achieving about where we should be this year.

There's clearly a lack of defensive intensity from last year. I think our starting unit defense is much worse than it was last year, which is surprising given our upgrades in personnel. I think we just focus way too much on trying to outscore the opponent rather than stopping them. Some of this can be put on Amir's significant drop in play, but IT, AB, and Jae have all performed significantly worse defensively than last year, and adding players like Brown and Rozier into the rotation also hurts our D.

Boston is only giving up 2 more ppg than last year which when you consider the injuries to Crowder and Horford, isn't bad at all.

Given the injuries 10-8 is a pretty good spot for Boston to be in.

Oh, I agree we're in a decent spot for the injuries we've had.

And perhaps with more time together as a healthy unit we'll get back to our defensive ways. But as it stands now, we're just not the same defensive team that we were last year, and our priorities as a team seem to have shifted dramatically.

But you are ignoring the injuries in your analysis.  Since Crowder came back in the first Detroit game, Boston has had the following results

Wins while giving up 92, 93, 92, 104
Losses while giving up 109, 121

The 104 win was without Horford.  The 109 loss was the 3rd best team in basketball and was a 5 point loss.  The 121 was obviously last night against Detroit, but Boston is always going to struggle a bit against a team with a guy like Drummond in the paint (and Boston got killed on the boards 52-33), and thus that is more an aberration. 

But the thing is last year Boston gave up 102.5 ppg good for 13th in the league (scoring 105.7 good for 5th).  Thus far this year Boston is giving up 104.4 ppg which is 16th (scoring 105 which is 12th).  When you consider that Boston lost Horford for 10 games, Crowder for 8 games, Olynyk for 6 games, and Smart for 3 games, it doesn't really seem to me that Boston has lost much of anything (aside from some rebounding without Sullinger).  Boston was a mediocre defense last year and is a mediocre defense this year, however Boston was a near elite offense last year and this year is mediocre.  That seems to be the bigger concern.

The problem with those number, though, is the pace again. Maybe better numbers to compare would be offensive and defensive rating, rather than points in a game.

Since we had such a fast pace last year, we had more possessions in games, so both those numbers are higher. However, looking at offensive and defensive rating per 100 possessions doesn't depend on pace as much. I'm on my phone, so I can't find the data now, but I would guess that it'd be more so along what we expect it to be.

This year
Off Rtg: 109.3 (9th of 30) Def Rtg: 108.6 (22nd of 30)

Last year
Off Rtg: 106.8 (10th of 30) Def Rtg: 103.6 (4th of 30)

So yeah a bit more dramatic on the defense, but again when factoring in injuries, it isn't that surprising, especially with the dramatic improvement since Crowder and Horford were back in the lineup (Detroit is the only bad defensive game).

yeah i agree on that. in fact, i think when i had checked the other day, we were 16th or 17th or something like that in Def Rtf, so i'm not really that surprised that the Detroit game last night when they couldn't miss dropped us to 22nd.

hopefully now that we're healthy (and hopefully we have had a wake up call now), we can get back to what we did last year and become an elite defense again.

[SHAQATTACK]

Trump

[Rivers23]

Now I've remembered, what about the transition defense? It's atrocious. Couple that with the run and gun offense and there you have it. You may say but fast break points allowed aren't that bad, but many points allowed stay out of the fast break point column, many points are allowed before the defense sets. That's the big problem too - stop getting yourself into transition defense situations by not taking ill advised shots and being patient on offense. I want to see Boston play like it played at the start of the game against Detroit, running sets, moving the ball and taking quality mid range shots.

[Alleyoopster]

Surprised nobody has stated the obvious (on top of injuries and rebounding).

Aside from Golden State and Cleveland, the overall balance of talent across the teams in the NBA is closer than it has been for quite a while. It was not too long ago where the second best team in the East would have been lucky to make the playoffs out of the West. Right now I’d say the two conferences are very close to even, especially in the middle of the pack.
One could argue that 2-10 in the East right now are very close to equal from a talent wise.

That being said as things are finally evening out there are a lot less “gimmies” night in and night out.

I personally love how there is so much evenness these days.. I think it’s exciting. Even though teams outside of the mistake by the lake or San Fran are simply playing for second.

Comcast had a free preview of NBA TV for a spell earlier in the season. I got to watch a number of teams play. Many of them impressed me in one way or another...either they displayed top notch scoring, defense, rebounding, passing and/or coaching. My feelings is a good number of players in the League have improved since last season. Thus, many teams' overall play has gotten better too.

For example, it's not a given that you are going to beat a last place team. Everyone is there to compete. You get a couple shooters with a hot hand and anything can happen.

What some of you are saying is true as well. The C's took a hit losing Sullinger and Turner. Plus, they are missing a strong inside game. Their perimeter defense could use improvement. However, even if they were able to improve in these areas. Other teams are still going to be tough to beat.

I don't think it's that we over-estimate the Celtics. It's more we vastly underestimate the overall talent in the NBA.

[TrueFan]

Surprised nobody has stated the obvious (on top of injuries and rebounding).

Aside from Golden State and Cleveland, the overall balance of talent across the teams in the NBA is closer than it has been for quite a while. It was not too long ago where the second best team in the East would have been lucky to make the playoffs out of the West. Right now I’d say the two conferences are very close to even, especially in the middle of the pack.
One could argue that 2-10 in the East right now are very close to equal from a talent wise.

That being said as things are finally evening out there are a lot less “gimmies” night in and night out.

I personally love how there is so much evenness these days.. I think it’s exciting. Even though teams outside of the mistake by the lake or San Fran are simply playing for second.

Comcast had a free preview of NBA TV for a spell earlier in the season. I got to watch a number of teams play. Many of them impressed me in one way or another...either they displayed top notch scoring, defense, rebounding, passing and/or coaching. My feelings is a good number of players in the League have improved since last season. Thus, many teams' overall play has gotten better too.

For example, it's not a given that you are going to beat a last place team. Everyone is there to compete. You get a couple shooters with a hot hand and anything can happen.

What some of you are saying is true as well. The C's took a hit losing Sullinger and Turner. Plus, they are missing a strong inside game. Their perimeter defense could use improvement. However, even if they were able to improve in these areas. Other teams are still going to be tough to beat.

I don't think it's that we over-estimate the Celtics. It's more we vastly underestimate the overall talent in the NBA.

If this is true then it would be a great time for a team to sell off players like Cousins to tank since there shouldn't be too much competition to get into the bottom 5.

[flybono]

Talent