My Theory

[Woodstock Libertarian]

In an article yesterday Jesse Nunes argued that the Celtics look scared. He theorized that the crushing weight of expectations had finally gotten to them.

Possible.

Here's what I think.

During the course of their glorious 66-16 season, how would the Celtics win games down the stretch?

Defense.

In this series, especially on the road, what happens when the celtics start putting the clamp down?

The refs call fouls--lots of them.

What is one of Doc's cardinal rules about the fourth quarter?

Don't put the opponent on the foul line.

So here are the Celtics, one of the best defensive teams of all time, unable to put the clamps down because they fear getting called for a foul and sending the opponent to the line for free points.

This is why they are lost, why  they are scared,  and why they have lost their mojo.

Their defense was their mojo, and the refs have essentially told them that if you play defense, we're gonna call fouls.

Now wouldn't that scare the hell out of you?

[Redz]

Easy enough solution then.

Show me the money! (just have to outbid the Hawks I guess )

[Andy Jick]

nah, their defense is fine...

they just have to quit playing timid and stupid.  paul pierce's mental outage at the end of that game had an impact (and that technical free throw would have been nice to have off the board when the final seconds were ticking down).

none of these three have won anything...so they're actually playing to the level they know.  they may have won 66 games, but they're not the larry bird-version of the celtics that fought for years through many playoff battles.  this is UNKNOWN territory for these guys, and the playoffs are NOTHING like an 82 game schedule.

they just need to pull their heads out of their butts and play basketball like they're capable of...

[Woodstock Libertarian]

nah, their defense is fine...

Ya think?

Giving up 100 points per game on the road.

Allowing the Hawks to score on seventeen consecutive possessions in the third and fourth quarters of game 6.

I'm not sure I'd agree.

[Yakmanev]

I sensed fear in Game 6. Garnett couldn't seem to complete a pass for some reason. Pierce became unraveled and Allen started missing down the stretch. Nobody else was any good either.


Atlanta just chose to [dang] the torpedoes and rush in with nothing to lose against a team that is suppose to waltz through the playoffs.

Now were stuck in Game 7. Massive pressure for our beloved Celtics.

[Vermont Green]

I agree with Woodstock on his theory, fouls have been an issue.  It used to be that refs put their whistles away in the playoffs.  There is one other factor that can't be ignored.  Old friend Joe Johnson has been the best offensive player on the court in those games.  In game 4, he put up a 4th quarter that rivaled Dominique Wilkins (but without as much flash).  In game 6, he responded to the double teams and created baskets for his team on every possession.  I didn't think JJ was that good and I don't think the Celtics (players and coaches) did either.

Buckle your seat belts boys and girls; it is going to be a wild Sunday afternoon (meaning I do not think this is going to be easy).

[timpiker]

Fouls are being called too easily and the Hawks are making them.  But the C's are playing timid and scared and when under pressure are playing like crap.  I could swear on multiple occasions it has looked like KG is choking under pressure.  How many layups or shots within 3 ft of the basket are being missed?  Its shameful to me that KG looks intimidated by Josh Smith.

[Who]

I don't think defense has been much of an issue for Boston. Their halfcourt defense by and large has been good. They've just ran into trouble when they're not scoring because Atlanta runs at them and gets more easy baskets than they do. In the halfcourt it's been fine, very solid.

........................

I didn't like the double teaming of Joe Johnson in game six. I think that's a mistake. This Atlanta Hawks team is awful at moving the ball and lacks people who can consistently score one-on-one. You shouldn't be bailing them out by allowing Joe Johnson to pick them apart and allowing the others to play 4-on-3 heading towards the rim. Once that starts happening their lack of ball movement and creativity doesn't matter.

.....................

Biggest problem is offensive execution. 3 of the top 4 Celtic scorers have great matchups at all times offensively and can score at will, yet they're not and they're not getting enough good shots from it because they#re not exploiting it. That's the single biggest problem. Celtics giving up easy baskets of their own, struggling offensively, which is allowing Atlanta to run at them and get easy baskets of their own instead of against the half court offense where Boston's defense has been a lot more effective.

[Andy Jick]

defense seems to be fine today...

[Roy Hobbs]

defense seems to be fine today...

Defense has been awesome, and the refs have been a little less ticky-tacky, as well. 

[Woodstock Libertarian]

I see where several of you have made the same comment, namely our defense has been fine.

Sure, at home.

But what about on the road?

Y'all still think we're playing pretty good D on the road? Even before the game three debacle the other night, we were giving up 25 points more on the road than at home. You're satisfied with this discrepency?

Now getting back to my original post, I see someone else (http://bucksdiary.blogspot.com/2008/05/have-zebras-hamstrung-celtic-road.html) is starting to think along the same lines as me.

I'm not saying there isn't other stuff going on.

But I will say there is a distinct difference between how (1) we play D at home and how we play D on the road; and (2) the number of fouls called on the Cs at home and one the road.

I say there is a correlation at play.

Bottom line: If what makes good D during the regular season and at home in the playoffs makes for foul-plagued D on the road in the playoffs, the Cs don't stand much of a chance on the road in the playoffs.

Sure they should be able to adapt.

But having had their way for 82+ games, and all of a sudden being told that if you play D you're gonna get called for lots of fouls, the adjustment clearly isn't a minor one.

[Scribbles]

I see where several of you have made the same comment, namely our defense has been fine.

Sure, at home.

But what about on the road?

Y'all still think we're playing pretty good D on the road? Even before the game three debacle the other night, we were giving up 25 points more on the road than at home. You're satisfied with this discrepency?

Now getting back to my original post, I see someone else (http://bucksdiary.blogspot.com/2008/05/have-zebras-hamstrung-celtic-road.html) is starting to think along the same lines as me.

I'm not saying there isn't other stuff going on.

But I will say there is a distinct difference between how (1) we play D at home and how we play D on the road; and (2) the number of fouls called on the Cs at home and one the road.

I say there is a correlation at play.

Bottom line: If what makes good D during the regular season and at home in the playoffs makes for foul-plagued D on the road in the playoffs, the Cs don't stand much of a chance on the road in the playoffs.

Sure they should be able to adapt.

But having had their way for 82+ games, and all of a sudden being told that if you play D you're gonna get called for lots of fouls, the adjustment clearly isn't a minor one.

I have to agree with you.  The point difference at home and on the road for the other team is a big difference.  I think that the difference in foul calls on the road compared to home hurts them but you are correct with your statement in they need to adjust to how the game is being reffed.  I just don't get how people say the defense is fine when we let ATL score around 100 at their place and Cleveland comes out and stops us in the first quarter.  Sure we could say the defense was good against ATL because they suck.  That team should never have pushed the C's to game 7, but it is what it is.  Those ATL games could easily have been won by the C's because ATL doesn't play much defense ever.  The Cavs on the other hand do play some defense and proved why it gets tougher to win on the road as you go on. 

With that said I'm really hoping we come out tonight ready to play.  Last game they started out right away launching jumpers instead of taking it to the basket.  I want to see more Ray involved earlier in the game too.  If we win this game tonight I'd say this series will be over in 5.  If we don't win tonight I'd have to guess its going to go 7.  This team really needs a road win before it starts to set in that they can't win on the road. 

[CelticsWin]

1969, 1974 and 1981 we won the championships on the road. The 1969 game the older Celtics Russell, Jones etc had their best accomplishment (the balloons stayed in the rafters). I believe the Celtics will become more confident tonight. It does not mean they will win but it will propel them through the rest of their road/home games to play more confident. Bird and Russell knew how to win on the road now it is KG, Ray and Paul's turn. You have to win with balance on offense and defense lets hope they do.