NBA Playoffs 2023

[gouki88]

I just dont like Porter Jr at all. He has one game where he will look like the next Jayson Tatum then he disappears for a couple games. He just chucks up shots like its end of shot clock and bricks them then lets it carry over to his effort on defense. Looked completely lost out there tonight.

Even though we expected the Zarba crew to come in here and force a 1-1 series, i never expected it to be this ridiculous. It seemed like every call they could get wrong they did. Miami benefited from multiple wrong out of bounds calls and the goaltend at the end of the game was crazy obvious. And i hate the idiot announcers talking about "Denver needs to control their emotions with the refs" as if there was nothing to complain about LOL

He’s a bit like Jeff Green insofar as consistency, or lack thereof

[ozgod]

I don’t get not calling a timeout with 10 seconds left by Denver.  Murray got a tough look but I guess at least they got a 3 up.

Given every coach worships on the altar of matchups now, I'm guessing Malone didn't want the Heat to get their defensive lineup in the game.

[ozgod]

Miami is so mid

Bucks and Celtics should be ashamed of themselves

A lot of teams are going to be feeling ashamed of themselves for letting Miami beat them when all's said and done I think 

[Kernewek]

I don’t get not calling a timeout with 10 seconds left by Denver.  Murray got a tough look but I guess at least they got a 3 up.

Given every coach worships on the altar of matchups now, I'm guessing Malone didn't want the Heat to get their defensive lineup in the game.

Clearly Malone is a hack and shout be replaced by Post-HocBBallFan1952

[Birdman]

Nuggets better win one in Miami in the next 2 games or it’s over

[cman88]

Nuggets better win one in Miami in the next 2 games or it’s over

They will, refs went into overdrive last night to ensure a long series since no one really cares about nuggets-heat. Now that they avoided the sweep it's about extending this to 6 games

[cman88]

Miami is so mid

Bucks and Celtics should be ashamed of themselves

A lot of teams are going to be feeling ashamed of themselves for letting Miami beat them when all's said and done I think 

Can we ever just admit maybe Miami is just a good team and playing ridiculous at the right time? Jimmy Butler has been very mid. But their roleplayers are shooting 50% from 3. If any team is consistently hitting 50% of their shots from downtown it's really tough to beat them...

They were one of the worst 3 pt shooting teams in the regular season and now shooting a generational percentage.

I'm not sure even prime splash bros hit 50% of their 3's. Team is on a ridiculous heater. Might get them a championship. Although I fully expect them to be one of those teams that can't replicate it and doesn't make the playoffs next year.

[ozgod]

I don’t get not calling a timeout with 10 seconds left by Denver.  Murray got a tough look but I guess at least they got a 3 up.

Given every coach worships on the altar of matchups now, I'm guessing Malone didn't want the Heat to get their defensive lineup in the game.

Clearly Malone is a hack and shout be replaced by Post-HocBBallFan1952

Well he did allow the Heat to come back from a 15 point deficit. (Whether it was the players or him who allowed it is immaterial.) Fire the bum! 

[ozgod]

Miami is so mid

Bucks and Celtics should be ashamed of themselves

A lot of teams are going to be feeling ashamed of themselves for letting Miami beat them when all's said and done I think 

Can we ever just admit maybe Miami is just a good team and playing ridiculous at the right time? Jimmy Butler has been very mid. But their roleplayers are shooting 50% from 3. If any team is consistently hitting 50% of their shots from downtown it's really tough to beat them...

They were one of the worst 3 pt shooting teams in the regular season and now shooting a generational percentage.

I'm not sure even prime splash bros hit 50% of their 3's. Team is on a ridiculous heater. Might get them a championship. Although I fully expect them to be one of those teams that can't replicate it and doesn't make the playoffs next year.

Most people won't want to, because on paper the Cs are so much better. How could they led such a mediocre team beat them? But it's results that count, and right now Miami are shooting 50% other than in Game 1 vs Denver.

[ozgod]

Here's what Malone had to say:

Malone, never one to mask his emotions, tore into his team for lack of effort. Yes, other teams besides the Celtics appear to have effort issues against the Heat. He didn’t like his team’s energy and laidback approach in the opening minutes, and now they’ve lost home-court advantage.

“Let’s talk about effort,” Malone said. “This is the NBA Finals, we are talking about effort; that’s a huge concern of mine. You guys probably thought I was just making up some story line after Game 1 when I said we didn’t play well.

“We had guys out there that were just feeling sorry for themselves for not making shots or thinking they can just turn it on or off, this is not the preseason, this is not the regular season. This is the NBA Finals. That to me is really, really perplexing, disappointing.”

“I asked them, you guys tell me why they lost, and they knew the answer,” Malone said. “Miami came in here and outworked us, and we were by far our least disciplined game of these 16 or 17 playoff games, whatever it is now. So many breakdowns. They exploited every one of our breakdowns and scored. If we’re going to try to go down there and regain control of this series and get home-court advantage back, we’re going to have to outwork Miami, which we didn’t do tonight, and our discipline is going to have to be off the charts.”

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2023/06/05/sports/it-wasnt-just-celtics-relentless-heat-are-wearing-down-nuggets-it-showed-game-2/

Strange how this lack of effort seems to happen against the Heat with disturbing regularity 

[Who]

Here's what Malone had to say:

Malone, never one to mask his emotions, tore into his team for lack of effort. Yes, other teams besides the Celtics appear to have effort issues against the Heat. He didn’t like his team’s energy and laidback approach in the opening minutes, and now they’ve lost home-court advantage.

“Let’s talk about effort,” Malone said. “This is the NBA Finals, we are talking about effort; that’s a huge concern of mine. You guys probably thought I was just making up some story line after Game 1 when I said we didn’t play well.

“We had guys out there that were just feeling sorry for themselves for not making shots or thinking they can just turn it on or off, this is not the preseason, this is not the regular season. This is the NBA Finals. That to me is really, really perplexing, disappointing.”

“I asked them, you guys tell me why they lost, and they knew the answer,” Malone said. “Miami came in here and outworked us, and we were by far our least disciplined game of these 16 or 17 playoff games, whatever it is now. So many breakdowns. They exploited every one of our breakdowns and scored. If we’re going to try to go down there and regain control of this series and get home-court advantage back, we’re going to have to outwork Miami, which we didn’t do tonight, and our discipline is going to have to be off the charts.”

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2023/06/05/sports/it-wasnt-just-celtics-relentless-heat-are-wearing-down-nuggets-it-showed-game-2/

Strange how this lack of effort seems to happen against the Heat with disturbing regularity 

Lack of effort happens regularly across the league because this new style of basketball is low physicality low intensity low effort settle for outside shots hoops.

It is not Miami.

All teams struggle to maintain any consistent marks of effort in the league anymore.

[Celtics2021]

Here's what Malone had to say:

Malone, never one to mask his emotions, tore into his team for lack of effort. Yes, other teams besides the Celtics appear to have effort issues against the Heat. He didn’t like his team’s energy and laidback approach in the opening minutes, and now they’ve lost home-court advantage.

“Let’s talk about effort,” Malone said. “This is the NBA Finals, we are talking about effort; that’s a huge concern of mine. You guys probably thought I was just making up some story line after Game 1 when I said we didn’t play well.

“We had guys out there that were just feeling sorry for themselves for not making shots or thinking they can just turn it on or off, this is not the preseason, this is not the regular season. This is the NBA Finals. That to me is really, really perplexing, disappointing.”

“I asked them, you guys tell me why they lost, and they knew the answer,” Malone said. “Miami came in here and outworked us, and we were by far our least disciplined game of these 16 or 17 playoff games, whatever it is now. So many breakdowns. They exploited every one of our breakdowns and scored. If we’re going to try to go down there and regain control of this series and get home-court advantage back, we’re going to have to outwork Miami, which we didn’t do tonight, and our discipline is going to have to be off the charts.”

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2023/06/05/sports/it-wasnt-just-celtics-relentless-heat-are-wearing-down-nuggets-it-showed-game-2/

Strange how this lack of effort seems to happen against the Heat with disturbing regularity 

It happened to the Heat for most of 82 regular season games as well as two play-in games, ironically.

[Vermont Green]

I took some time today to dig into 3-point shooting in the playoffs.  The Heat lead the league in playoff made percentage at 39.2%  DEN is second at 38.2%.  So the two teams in the finals are the two teams that shot the best from 3.  The big difference though is that DEN shot about the same during the regular season (37.9%) while MIA was only 34.4% regular season.  BOS for reference was 37.7% regular season and 36.4% playoffs (although only 30.3% ECF to MIA 43.3%).

That is a remarkable uptick for MIA, considering that you are playing the best teams and that one of their best and most frequent regular season 3-pt shooters (Herro) has been hurt for most of the playoffs.  It is also kind of remarkable that BOS shot so poorly in the ECF and was still able to take it to 7 games.

The finals is only 2 games so far, but 2 games in Denver, where you expect the home team to shoot better.  Based on 2 games, MIA is 40.5% from 3 and Denver is 34.5%.  MIA kept BOS below their season and playoff average (by a lot) and now is keeping DEN below theirs (by a fair amount).  Good defense or bad shooting (maybe nerves)?  And if it is good defense, is it scheme or personnel?  Effort or ability? 

I will be honest, I can't figure this out.  It is of course some combination of several factors but supporting players are not supposed to suddenly start shooting at career best levels in the playoffs, and to keep it up through the entire playoffs.  And good teams/players are not supposed to go cold for entire playoff series no matter what defense the other team is playing.  But that is exactly what has happened every series and happened again last night in game 2 of the finals.

[Goldstar88]

I took some time today to dig into 3-point shooting in the playoffs.  The Heat lead the league in playoff made percentage at 39.2%  DEN is second at 38.2%.  So the two teams in the finals are the two teams that shot the best from 3.  The big difference though is that DEN shot about the same during the regular season (37.9%) while MIA was only 34.4% regular season.  BOS for reference was 37.7% regular season and 36.4% playoffs (although only 30.3% ECF to MIA 43.3%).

That is a remarkable uptick for MIA, considering that you are playing the best teams and that one of their best and most frequent regular season 3-pt shooters (Herro) has been hurt for most of the playoffs.  It is also kind of remarkable that BOS shot so poorly in the ECF and was still able to take it to 7 games.

The finals is only 2 games so far, but 2 games in Denver, where you expect the home team to shoot better.  Based on 2 games, MIA is 40.5% from 3 and Denver is 34.5%.  MIA kept BOS below their season and playoff average (by a lot) and now is keeping DEN below theirs (by a fair amount).  Good defense or bad shooting (maybe nerves)?  And if it is good defense, is it scheme or personnel?  Effort or ability? 

I will be honest, I can't figure this out.  It is of course some combination of several factors but supporting players are not supposed to suddenly start shooting at career best levels in the playoffs, and to keep it up through the entire playoffs.  And good teams/players are not supposed to go cold for entire playoff series no matter what defense the other team is playing.  But that is exactly what has happened every series and happened again last night in game 2 of the finals.

They have been shooting a high percentage, but both teams don’t rely on 3pt shooting like the C’s do. Going into the Finals the Nuggets were ranked 13th in 3pt shot attempts and Miami was 10th out of 16 teams. Maybe that takes less pressure off of them knowing that they aren’t living and dying by the 3.

[Vermont Green]

I also wanted to mess around with the stats for 3-point attempts, to test Joe Mazzulla's unconventional theory that 3PA are the biggest factor contributing to winning.  The two teams in the finals rank 8th (MIA at 34.0 3PA/gm) and 13th (DEN at 30.9 3PA/gm) out of the 16 playoff teams.  BOS for reference is 4th at 38.7%.

There does not appear to be any correlation between playoff success and 3PA rate.  The final 4 teams ranked 5th (BOS), 8th (MIA), 13th (DEN), and 15th (LAL) in playoff 3PA attempt rate.  If anything, it is weighted more towards the lower end with 3 of 4 being average or below average.  Making 3s is statistically far more impactful to success (not surprising).

Regular season, GSW, BOS, DAL, and MIL were the top 4 in 3PA.  The bottom 4 were ORL, ATL, NOP, and CHI.  DEN was 25th.  So the two top regular season records were in the top 4 of 3PA but the 3rd best team was 25th.  The bottom 4 in 3PA were all average or bad teams.  You could argue that DEN has Jokic which may lead to more inside shots, skewing this some, I don't know.

The bottom line is that I don't think there is any statistical basis for the theory that 3PA is the biggest factor to winning.  There was more correlation in the regular season over the playoffs but nothing determinative from what I can see.  It may be a bigger factor for the Celtics than the league at large, I don't know, but I have my doubts.  Meaning based on the Celtic's personnel, 3PA may be more important to them than a league average team.

I say let's get a big who can score and that will diversify our offense.  It the Celtics need to jack up 3s to win, based on personnel, maybe the team is not versatile enough. Over reliance on live by the 3 die by the 3 appears to lead to an overly inconsistent team.