Are we witnessing Jayson Tatum becoming a top 5 NBA player?

[nebist]

I look at it in terms of skills added.

If Tatum was going to fulfill his potential as a top-5 player in the league, he obviously needed to become stronger and more physical, allowing him to finish better at the rim and earn more FTAs. The most exciting development for him this year has been that he has become qualitatively stronger and more physical. I would say he now has the athleticism (height/speed/strength/agility combo) to be a top 5 basketball player in the world. Granted, he is still learning how to be consistent in terms of translating his new-found strength and physicality into the desired end results of FTAs and finishing at the rim, but we have seen the high in flashes. I believe the consistency will come.

Tatum's dramatic gain in this area has been over-shadowed his poor shooting #s this year. However, I don't think he suddenly forgot how to shoot. As his shooting numbers normalize, I expect we will look back on this year as another significant step forward in his development.

In a slightly different direction, I would say Tatum's development as a passer/playmaker has been slow and steady over the last several years and is moving in the right direction. It's not like he dramatically overhauled it in one off-season, but I think he could be a Kawhi-like facilitator by the time he is 25/26 if he continues on this trajectory.

So, to summarize. If Tatum's shooting slump normalizes, he continues his incremental progression as a playmaker, and he learns to use his new athleticism more consistently, I see the frame of a top 5 player in the league within the next 2-3 years. If 1-2 of those 3 things do not happen, then he will stay at his current level (somewhere between 10-20 best player in the league...a clear all-star and fringe All-NBA guy).

[PhoSita]

it's two games

[#1P4P]

Why does every thread about Tatum or Brown have to slip in these comments pitting them against each other? 

Having two good players is kinda nice, guys.  No need to put one down to support the other.  You can like both.

Human traits. Once these ideas get momentum, people continue to push them even when there’s no truth.

They try to make it seem like it’s a Brady vs. Jimmy G thing, when they’re pitting Brady and Gronk (figuratively speaking).

Tatum’s displayed a desire to be the best and it has also correlated to winning. To be considered, he has to stabilize as an excellent  playmaker, scorer, and have it coincide with winning.  he performs with the consistency of the others in the top 10, he’ll be there. Leading the team to a Finals or Championship would make him a consensus top 5 player.

[colincb]

More of this rather than fiddling around is good.

Jay King @ByJayKing
about 15 minutes ago

Ime Udoka said you can see a noticeable difference in the way Jayson Tatum is attacking downhill lately. Said his 20 drives against Portland were the second most of his career.

[todd_days_41]

it's two games

This.

Again, he's averaging a career low in both FG% and 3PFG%. He's averaging less assists than last season. He's averaging a career high in turnovers. And he still whines to refs constantly while he loafs back on defense. Is he really improving?

Top 5-10 guys make their teammates better. Tatum improvement in that area is still a major work in progress.

[Surferdad]

Let's start with: Who are the top-5 currently?

LeBron
Durant
Curry
Giannis
K. Leonard?

You may disagree, but my point is I think you have to have won an NBA championship be considered top-5.

[Rondo9]

it's two games

This.

Again, he's averaging a career low in both FG% and 3PFG%. He's averaging less assists than last season. He's averaging a career high in turnovers. And he still whines to refs constantly while he loafs back on defense. Is he really improving?

Top 5-10 guys make their teammates better. Tatum improvement in that area is still a major work in progress.

According to his teammates and his coach: Yeah.

[Atzar]

Let's start with: Who are the top-5 currently?

LeBron
Durant
Curry
Giannis
K. Leonard?

You may disagree, but my point is I think you have to have won an NBA championship be considered top-5.

Not sure how any discussion of the top 5 can omit Jokic at this point.  He leads his team in all five major statistical categories and has dragged them to a 25-21 record despite the fact that his best teammate is either Aaron Gordon or Will freaking Barton.  The defensive argument is also a thing of the past.

Forget top 5.  Dude is probably #1. 

Embiid deserves serious top 5 consideration this season too. 

[footey]

Let's start with: Who are the top-5 currently?

LeBron
Durant
Curry
Giannis
K. Leonard?

You may disagree, but my point is I think you have to have won an NBA championship be considered top-5.

Not sure how any discussion of the top 5 can omit Jokic at this point.  He leads his team in all five major statistical categories and has dragged them to a 25-21 record despite the fact that his best teammate is either Aaron Gordon or Will freaking Barton.  The defensive argument is also a thing of the past.

Forget top 5.  Dude is probably #1. 

Embiid deserves serious top 5 consideration this season too.

Agree. Winning a championship is not a prerequisite to being ranked top 5.

[todd_days_41]

it's two games

This.

Again, he's averaging a career low in both FG% and 3PFG%. He's averaging less assists than last season. He's averaging a career high in turnovers. And he still whines to refs constantly while he loafs back on defense. Is he really improving?

Top 5-10 guys make their teammates better. Tatum improvement in that area is still a major work in progress.

According to his teammates and his coach: Yeah.

And what's the relevance of teammate media exactly? What are they supposed to say "yeah... he still hasn't matured much..."?

[todd_days_41]

Let's start with: Who are the top-5 currently?

LeBron
Durant
Curry
Giannis
K. Leonard?

You may disagree, but my point is I think you have to have won an NBA championship be considered top-5.

Not sure how any discussion of the top 5 can omit Jokic at this point.  He leads his team in all five major statistical categories and has dragged them to a 25-21 record despite the fact that his best teammate is either Aaron Gordon or Will freaking Barton.  The defensive argument is also a thing of the past.

Forget top 5.  Dude is probably #1. 

Embiid deserves serious top 5 consideration this season too.

Agreed -- the reigning NBA MVP should prolly be included. And Embiid is a clearly superior player to Tatum, as well.

[seancally]

Let's start with: Who are the top-5 currently?

LeBron
Durant
Curry
Giannis
K. Leonard?

You may disagree, but my point is I think you have to have won an NBA championship be considered top-5.

Not sure how any discussion of the top 5 can omit Jokic at this point.  He leads his team in all five major statistical categories and has dragged them to a 25-21 record despite the fact that his best teammate is either Aaron Gordon or Will freaking Barton.  The defensive argument is also a thing of the past.

Forget top 5.  Dude is probably #1. 

Embiid deserves serious top 5 consideration this season too.

Agreed -- the reigning NBA MVP should prolly be included. And Embiid is a clearly superior player to Tatum, as well.

Jokic, Curry, Durant, Embiid, Giannis — in no particular order. Lebron is right there but I’ll take those 5 above him this season. Then sure Kawhi but he’s injured so I can’t include him there.

Tatum is knocking on the door for top 10, especially filtering for active players this season. I’d take Harden over Tatum, ignoring age and whatnot. Would you take Jimmy Butler? AD? Luka (probably), Trae (maybe not)? The list grows thin pretty quickly.

Edit: gotta include Ja Morant. So is the top 10 something like:

Jokic
Curry
Durant
Giannis
Embiid
Lebron
Morant
Harden
Luka
AD? Butler?

Tatum is right there, IMO. He’s top-15 but may not make all-NBA depending how positions shake out and the second half of the season.

[RJ87]

it's two games

This.

Again, he's averaging a career low in both FG% and 3PFG%. He's averaging less assists than last season. He's averaging a career high in turnovers. And he still whines to refs constantly while he loafs back on defense. Is he really improving?

Top 5-10 guys make their teammates better. Tatum improvement in that area is still a major work in progress.

It's fair to question if those guys "make their teammates better" or if they have the benefit of better roster construction? At the end of the day, your team's talent level is what it is. If you're not putting complementary players around your most talented guys, the results are going to show that. Look at the Lakers this season, they have Lebron and AD but the roster is worse and so, the team is worse. Jokic doesn't have Murray this year, the team isn't as high in the standings. Embiid doesn't have Ben, they want from a #1 seed to and #6 seed.

The Celtics have lost a ton of talent over the years and has failed to replace it with comparable talent, so the team probably won't get back to the conference finals any time soon. We essentially turned Gordon Hayward into Josh Richardson. Josh is actually having one of the better seasons of his career, but the talent downgrade is noticeable. We went from a string of All-Star PG's (IT/Kyrie/Kemba) and have nothing to show for it. We actually had to lose a pick to move off a Kemba.

The organization has made blunders that have compromised the quality of the team. I don't hold either Jay accountable for that.

[Vermont Green]

Let's start with: Who are the top-5 currently?

LeBron
Durant
Curry
Giannis
K. Leonard?

You may disagree, but my point is I think you have to have won an NBA championship be considered top-5.

I guess you could limit this to top 5 this season and since Leonard is out the entire season, exclude him.  Still, even with that, Tatum would have a tough time cracking the top 5

Accepting the top 4 from above:

LeBron
Durant
Curry
Giannis

Then add to that some that are also probably above Tatum

Embiid
Doncic
Jokic

I would say Tatum is clearly in the 5-10 range.  Probably not top 5 but knocking on the door.

[PhoSita]

Tatum isn't sniffing top 15 this season imo. Questionable if he's top 20.

People get mixed up conflating talent / ability with actual production. For a lot of this season Tatum has been bad.  A lot of players who are shorter and less talented than Tatum have been better this year.

People also get mixed up conflating moral failing with lack of production.  Saying Tatum hasn't played well for much of this season is not the same thing as saying it's some kind of character flaw or something. He's just struggled a ton with his jumpshot.

Tatum is taking 21 field goal attempts per game this season and has an effective field goal percentage below 50%. He's averaging fewer than 5 assists per game while averaging 3 turnovers per game.  There's just no way he's anywhere close to having a top 10, let alone top 5, season.