Timelord signs 4 year $54M extension

[gouki88]

Every single year, Boston has been worse with Williams on the floor then when he is in the game.  Obviously some of that is who is and is not playing with, but that is a bit concerning given how good his per minute stats.  Houston was significantly worse with Wood on the bench as was Detroit his last year there.  If you want to talk about impact, there aren't many gauges better than the scoreboard.

Right, but Houston was one of the worst teams in history last year.  Sure, they were a heck of a lot worse with him off than on, but they were not good with him on the court either.  The Celtics outscored opponents with TL playing, just by a slightly less margin than they did with him sitting.

On-off splits are helpful, but like every statistic there will always be noise, and when a team’s backup centers include Danuel House, who is typically a 6’6” wing that’s spent as much time at the 2 as the 5 in his career, you’re going to see some really wonky numbers.

Yes, Boston was +0.3 with RW on the floor but they were +0.9 with him on the bench (per 100 possessions).  Obviously with RW coming off the bench as much as he did, I'm not sure how much stock you can put it in in this instance, but it is still what the numbers were.  And the numbers were better in the games he started as he was +45 in the 13 games he started.

They were also +10.2 with him on the court in the playoffs, and his on-off was +29.2.  Prior year (in triple the minutes) weren’t shabby either, +6.4, and 1.7 better with him on than off.

Last year Williams bested Wood in PER, WS/48, offensive win shares, defensive win shares, total win shares (obviously), offensive BPM, defensive BPM, total BPM (again obviously), and VORP.  Some of those are rates, but things like Win Shares and VORP are counting stats, so it says something that TL won them despite Wood playing 50% more minutes.  A lot of those stats weren’t close.  So yes, Wood looks better in on/off, but that just says that the relative quality of center on the Rockets was far worse compared to him than the relative quality of center on the Celtics, which makes sense given that Theis and Thompson are competent NBA bigs and the Celtics were trying to win games.

All the advanced stats are interesting, including the +/- type stats.  I do look at these and consider these but always in the context of what I see on the court.  With Robert Williams, I see a less polished version of Marcus Camby.  Camby was about a 10/10 career guy, who was a little better than that in some individual seasons.  He was never a star but did contribute to winning basketball in direct and indirect ways.  Camby was no offensive dynamo but even he had a little more than what Williams has now.

That is what I think Williams is, and that is OK.  He needs to add something to his scoring game, a baby hook, a mid range, something beyond just dunks.  The dunks make his TS% look really good but he needs to give the other teams something more to have to think about.  Without that, he is really just a fringe NBA starter.  With that, he would be a solid NBA starter.

Except for the 15% differential in FG%

[Moranis]

Every single year, Boston has been worse with Williams on the floor then when he is in the game.  Obviously some of that is who is and is not playing with, but that is a bit concerning given how good his per minute stats.  Houston was significantly worse with Wood on the bench as was Detroit his last year there.  If you want to talk about impact, there aren't many gauges better than the scoreboard.

Right, but Houston was one of the worst teams in history last year.  Sure, they were a heck of a lot worse with him off than on, but they were not good with him on the court either.  The Celtics outscored opponents with TL playing, just by a slightly less margin than they did with him sitting.

On-off splits are helpful, but like every statistic there will always be noise, and when a team’s backup centers include Danuel House, who is typically a 6’6” wing that’s spent as much time at the 2 as the 5 in his career, you’re going to see some really wonky numbers.

Yes, Boston was +0.3 with RW on the floor but they were +0.9 with him on the bench (per 100 possessions).  Obviously with RW coming off the bench as much as he did, I'm not sure how much stock you can put it in in this instance, but it is still what the numbers were.  And the numbers were better in the games he started as he was +45 in the 13 games he started.

They were also +10.2 with him on the court in the playoffs, and his on-off was +29.2.  Prior year (in triple the minutes) weren’t shabby either, +6.4, and 1.7 better with him on than off.

Last year Williams bested Wood in PER, WS/48, offensive win shares, defensive win shares, total win shares (obviously), offensive BPM, defensive BPM, total BPM (again obviously), and VORP.  Some of those are rates, but things like Win Shares and VORP are counting stats, so it says something that TL won them despite Wood playing 50% more minutes.  A lot of those stats weren’t close.  So yes, Wood looks better in on/off, but that just says that the relative quality of center on the Rockets was far worse compared to him than the relative quality of center on the Celtics, which makes sense given that Theis and Thompson are competent NBA bigs and the Celtics were trying to win games.

All the advanced stats are interesting, including the +/- type stats.  I do look at these and consider these but always in the context of what I see on the court.  With Robert Williams, I see a less polished version of Marcus Camby.  Camby was about a 10/10 career guy, who was a little better than that in some individual seasons.  He was never a star but did contribute to winning basketball in direct and indirect ways.  Camby was no offensive dynamo but even he had a little more than what Williams has now.

That is what I think Williams is, and that is OK.  He needs to add something to his scoring game, a baby hook, a mid range, something beyond just dunks.  The dunks make his TS% look really good but he needs to give the other teams something more to have to think about.  Without that, he is really just a fringe NBA starter.  With that, he would be a solid NBA starter.

Except for the 15% differential in FG%

5 shots a game though last year and 3.5 shots a game on his career.  Camby was double that.  I do think that matters, though obviously Williams is a much better finisher around the rim to the tune of like 20% better from 0-3 feet, but 70% of Williams shots in his career have been 0-3 feet.  He has no range at all, which limits how effective he can be offensively (at least to this point). 

[Vermont Green]

Every single year, Boston has been worse with Williams on the floor then when he is in the game.  Obviously some of that is who is and is not playing with, but that is a bit concerning given how good his per minute stats.  Houston was significantly worse with Wood on the bench as was Detroit his last year there.  If you want to talk about impact, there aren't many gauges better than the scoreboard.

Right, but Houston was one of the worst teams in history last year.  Sure, they were a heck of a lot worse with him off than on, but they were not good with him on the court either.  The Celtics outscored opponents with TL playing, just by a slightly less margin than they did with him sitting.

On-off splits are helpful, but like every statistic there will always be noise, and when a team’s backup centers include Danuel House, who is typically a 6’6” wing that’s spent as much time at the 2 as the 5 in his career, you’re going to see some really wonky numbers.

Yes, Boston was +0.3 with RW on the floor but they were +0.9 with him on the bench (per 100 possessions).  Obviously with RW coming off the bench as much as he did, I'm not sure how much stock you can put it in in this instance, but it is still what the numbers were.  And the numbers were better in the games he started as he was +45 in the 13 games he started.

They were also +10.2 with him on the court in the playoffs, and his on-off was +29.2.  Prior year (in triple the minutes) weren’t shabby either, +6.4, and 1.7 better with him on than off.

Last year Williams bested Wood in PER, WS/48, offensive win shares, defensive win shares, total win shares (obviously), offensive BPM, defensive BPM, total BPM (again obviously), and VORP.  Some of those are rates, but things like Win Shares and VORP are counting stats, so it says something that TL won them despite Wood playing 50% more minutes.  A lot of those stats weren’t close.  So yes, Wood looks better in on/off, but that just says that the relative quality of center on the Rockets was far worse compared to him than the relative quality of center on the Celtics, which makes sense given that Theis and Thompson are competent NBA bigs and the Celtics were trying to win games.

All the advanced stats are interesting, including the +/- type stats.  I do look at these and consider these but always in the context of what I see on the court.  With Robert Williams, I see a less polished version of Marcus Camby.  Camby was about a 10/10 career guy, who was a little better than that in some individual seasons.  He was never a star but did contribute to winning basketball in direct and indirect ways.  Camby was no offensive dynamo but even he had a little more than what Williams has now.

That is what I think Williams is, and that is OK.  He needs to add something to his scoring game, a baby hook, a mid range, something beyond just dunks.  The dunks make his TS% look really good but he needs to give the other teams something more to have to think about.  Without that, he is really just a fringe NBA starter.  With that, he would be a solid NBA starter.

Except for the 15% differential in FG%

Not sure what you mean by this.  Yes, Robert Williams has a very high FG% but the only shots he takes are dunks.  Camby actually has a better career FT%.

Getting a few roll to the hoop dunks a game is great.  Add a couple of put backs, great.  Robert Williams needs to add to this though.  I think he can, I still expect some improvement from him.

[jambr380]

Williams definitely has a mid-range jumper in his arsenal, he just has no reason to use it since he so easily can get to the rim. Perhaps Ime can 'force' him to take a couple per game just to keep defenses honest.

I am not going to comment on the Williams vs Wood debate - they are just completely different centers with completely different strengths. On a team with Tatum and Brown, I lean towards having a center with Williams skillset, with the caveat being that he continues to improve and stay healthy. And even if he does end up worse than Wood, that is okay, Wood is a very good center who HOU got on a great deal. Good for them.

[Vermont Green]

Every single year, Boston has been worse with Williams on the floor then when he is in the game.  Obviously some of that is who is and is not playing with, but that is a bit concerning given how good his per minute stats.  Houston was significantly worse with Wood on the bench as was Detroit his last year there.  If you want to talk about impact, there aren't many gauges better than the scoreboard.

Right, but Houston was one of the worst teams in history last year.  Sure, they were a heck of a lot worse with him off than on, but they were not good with him on the court either.  The Celtics outscored opponents with TL playing, just by a slightly less margin than they did with him sitting.

On-off splits are helpful, but like every statistic there will always be noise, and when a team’s backup centers include Danuel House, who is typically a 6’6” wing that’s spent as much time at the 2 as the 5 in his career, you’re going to see some really wonky numbers.

Yes, Boston was +0.3 with RW on the floor but they were +0.9 with him on the bench (per 100 possessions).  Obviously with RW coming off the bench as much as he did, I'm not sure how much stock you can put it in in this instance, but it is still what the numbers were.  And the numbers were better in the games he started as he was +45 in the 13 games he started.

They were also +10.2 with him on the court in the playoffs, and his on-off was +29.2.  Prior year (in triple the minutes) weren’t shabby either, +6.4, and 1.7 better with him on than off.

Last year Williams bested Wood in PER, WS/48, offensive win shares, defensive win shares, total win shares (obviously), offensive BPM, defensive BPM, total BPM (again obviously), and VORP.  Some of those are rates, but things like Win Shares and VORP are counting stats, so it says something that TL won them despite Wood playing 50% more minutes.  A lot of those stats weren’t close.  So yes, Wood looks better in on/off, but that just says that the relative quality of center on the Rockets was far worse compared to him than the relative quality of center on the Celtics, which makes sense given that Theis and Thompson are competent NBA bigs and the Celtics were trying to win games.

All the advanced stats are interesting, including the +/- type stats.  I do look at these and consider these but always in the context of what I see on the court.  With Robert Williams, I see a less polished version of Marcus Camby.  Camby was about a 10/10 career guy, who was a little better than that in some individual seasons.  He was never a star but did contribute to winning basketball in direct and indirect ways.  Camby was no offensive dynamo but even he had a little more than what Williams has now.

That is what I think Williams is, and that is OK.  He needs to add something to his scoring game, a baby hook, a mid range, something beyond just dunks.  The dunks make his TS% look really good but he needs to give the other teams something more to have to think about.  Without that, he is really just a fringe NBA starter.  With that, he would be a solid NBA starter.

Except for the 15% differential in FG%

5 shots a game though last year and 3.5 shots a game on his career.  Camby was double that.  I do think that matters, though obviously Williams is a much better finisher around the rim to the tune of like 20% better from 0-3 feet, but 70% of Williams shots in his career have been 0-3 feet.  He has no range at all, which limits how effective he can be offensively (at least to this point).

This describes my point well.  You should make 70% of your shots  0-3'.  And it is great that Williams knows his limitations.  But that is what it is at this point, a limitation.

[Moranis]

Every single year, Boston has been worse with Williams on the floor then when he is in the game.  Obviously some of that is who is and is not playing with, but that is a bit concerning given how good his per minute stats.  Houston was significantly worse with Wood on the bench as was Detroit his last year there.  If you want to talk about impact, there aren't many gauges better than the scoreboard.

Right, but Houston was one of the worst teams in history last year.  Sure, they were a heck of a lot worse with him off than on, but they were not good with him on the court either.  The Celtics outscored opponents with TL playing, just by a slightly less margin than they did with him sitting.

On-off splits are helpful, but like every statistic there will always be noise, and when a team’s backup centers include Danuel House, who is typically a 6’6” wing that’s spent as much time at the 2 as the 5 in his career, you’re going to see some really wonky numbers.

Yes, Boston was +0.3 with RW on the floor but they were +0.9 with him on the bench (per 100 possessions).  Obviously with RW coming off the bench as much as he did, I'm not sure how much stock you can put it in in this instance, but it is still what the numbers were.  And the numbers were better in the games he started as he was +45 in the 13 games he started.

They were also +10.2 with him on the court in the playoffs, and his on-off was +29.2.  Prior year (in triple the minutes) weren’t shabby either, +6.4, and 1.7 better with him on than off.

Last year Williams bested Wood in PER, WS/48, offensive win shares, defensive win shares, total win shares (obviously), offensive BPM, defensive BPM, total BPM (again obviously), and VORP.  Some of those are rates, but things like Win Shares and VORP are counting stats, so it says something that TL won them despite Wood playing 50% more minutes.  A lot of those stats weren’t close.  So yes, Wood looks better in on/off, but that just says that the relative quality of center on the Rockets was far worse compared to him than the relative quality of center on the Celtics, which makes sense given that Theis and Thompson are competent NBA bigs and the Celtics were trying to win games.

All the advanced stats are interesting, including the +/- type stats.  I do look at these and consider these but always in the context of what I see on the court.  With Robert Williams, I see a less polished version of Marcus Camby.  Camby was about a 10/10 career guy, who was a little better than that in some individual seasons.  He was never a star but did contribute to winning basketball in direct and indirect ways.  Camby was no offensive dynamo but even he had a little more than what Williams has now.

That is what I think Williams is, and that is OK.  He needs to add something to his scoring game, a baby hook, a mid range, something beyond just dunks.  The dunks make his TS% look really good but he needs to give the other teams something more to have to think about.  Without that, he is really just a fringe NBA starter.  With that, he would be a solid NBA starter.

Except for the 15% differential in FG%

5 shots a game though last year and 3.5 shots a game on his career.  Camby was double that.  I do think that matters, though obviously Williams is a much better finisher around the rim to the tune of like 20% better from 0-3 feet, but 70% of Williams shots in his career have been 0-3 feet.  He has no range at all, which limits how effective he can be offensively (at least to this point).

This describes my point well.  You should make 70% of your shots  0-3'.  And it is great that Williams knows his limitations.  But that is what it is at this point, a limitation.

Williams is more like 80% from 0-3, which is all time great level of efficiency.  7 out of every 10 of his shots are from that range (which is the 70% number).  That said, Williams has taken so few shots that it skews his numbers.  I mean prime-LA Shaq, was generally a mid 70% shooter from 0-3, with his best topping out at 79.2% in 00-01.  Williams has eclipsed that in each of the last 2 seasons 79.7% 2 years ago and 80.1% last year (and he was 78.6% as a rookie).  More shots will mean a lesser percentage unless people really think Williams has a Shaq level ability from close in. 

Williams is certainly an excellent finisher and he has soft hands with solid passing skills.  He absolutely can be a much better and more varied offensive player, he just hasn't done it yet and until he does, it is hard to really say what type of offensive player he can be.  If he can actually stay on the court, we may actually find out this year.

[gouki88]

Every single year, Boston has been worse with Williams on the floor then when he is in the game.  Obviously some of that is who is and is not playing with, but that is a bit concerning given how good his per minute stats.  Houston was significantly worse with Wood on the bench as was Detroit his last year there.  If you want to talk about impact, there aren't many gauges better than the scoreboard.

Right, but Houston was one of the worst teams in history last year.  Sure, they were a heck of a lot worse with him off than on, but they were not good with him on the court either.  The Celtics outscored opponents with TL playing, just by a slightly less margin than they did with him sitting.

On-off splits are helpful, but like every statistic there will always be noise, and when a team’s backup centers include Danuel House, who is typically a 6’6” wing that’s spent as much time at the 2 as the 5 in his career, you’re going to see some really wonky numbers.

Yes, Boston was +0.3 with RW on the floor but they were +0.9 with him on the bench (per 100 possessions).  Obviously with RW coming off the bench as much as he did, I'm not sure how much stock you can put it in in this instance, but it is still what the numbers were.  And the numbers were better in the games he started as he was +45 in the 13 games he started.

They were also +10.2 with him on the court in the playoffs, and his on-off was +29.2.  Prior year (in triple the minutes) weren’t shabby either, +6.4, and 1.7 better with him on than off.

Last year Williams bested Wood in PER, WS/48, offensive win shares, defensive win shares, total win shares (obviously), offensive BPM, defensive BPM, total BPM (again obviously), and VORP.  Some of those are rates, but things like Win Shares and VORP are counting stats, so it says something that TL won them despite Wood playing 50% more minutes.  A lot of those stats weren’t close.  So yes, Wood looks better in on/off, but that just says that the relative quality of center on the Rockets was far worse compared to him than the relative quality of center on the Celtics, which makes sense given that Theis and Thompson are competent NBA bigs and the Celtics were trying to win games.

All the advanced stats are interesting, including the +/- type stats.  I do look at these and consider these but always in the context of what I see on the court.  With Robert Williams, I see a less polished version of Marcus Camby.  Camby was about a 10/10 career guy, who was a little better than that in some individual seasons.  He was never a star but did contribute to winning basketball in direct and indirect ways.  Camby was no offensive dynamo but even he had a little more than what Williams has now.

That is what I think Williams is, and that is OK.  He needs to add something to his scoring game, a baby hook, a mid range, something beyond just dunks.  The dunks make his TS% look really good but he needs to give the other teams something more to have to think about.  Without that, he is really just a fringe NBA starter.  With that, he would be a solid NBA starter.

Except for the 15% differential in FG%

Not sure what you mean by this.  Yes, Robert Williams has a very high FG% but the only shots he takes are dunks.  Camby actually has a better career FT%.

Getting a few roll to the hoop dunks a game is great.  Add a couple of put backs, great.  Robert Williams needs to add to this though.  I think he can, I still expect some improvement from him.

I just think it's important to acknowledge Camby's inefficiency compared to Rob.

They also had very different roles on offence. Per possession Rob's scoring over the last two seasons has been identical to Camby's per possession scoring, besides Camby's abnormal rookie season. Their blocks are identical, Rob rebounds, assists and steals more, but also fouls more and turns it over more (slightly).

I don't know that Williams being an all-time elite finisher at the rim is as much a limitation as a 7 footer being a 47% finisher from the field.

[Vermont Green]

I just think it's important to acknowledge Camby's inefficiency compared to Rob.

They also had very different roles on offence. Per possession Rob's scoring over the last two seasons has been identical to Camby's per possession scoring, besides Camby's abnormal rookie season. Their blocks are identical, Rob rebounds, assists and steals more, but also fouls more and turns it over more (slightly).

I don't know that Williams being an all-time elite finisher at the rim is as much a limitation as a 7 footer being a 47% finisher from the field.

Yes, Williams is more efficient dunking alley-oop plays but I think most everything else is a slight edge to Camby.  Camby blocked more shots and was overall a better team defender (Williams may improve).  Williams is probably a better passer but because he presents no offensive threat, he really gets limited opportunity to pass.  Camby was also more durable.

I feel that if Williams can give us 4 years of early Marcus Camby, I will be very happy with that.  I think comping Williams to Camby is a compliment, not a put down.  Camby was a solid, reliable, starting center for many years.  Williams has yet to prove he can be a starter (but he is close).  Williams still has plenty of opportunity to surpass Camby and if he does, great.

[Big333223]

I love the deal.

The gamble is with his health, not his talent. That gamble is real, obviously, as he's never had a good stretch of health in his 3 years.

But if he can get health and stay healthy, he's an elite rebounder, shot blocker, and finisher around the rim and has shown that he's got the passing gene that makes everyone around him better.

If the health gamble pays off, there's a a chance he turns into the best contract in the NBA. If not...

[vjcsmoke]

Stevens has been quite decisive in his dealings early on.  That to me inspires more confidence.  Ok he's bound to make a couple of mistakes here and there, that's part of the process of learning the job, but all signs seem to be encouraging so far.  These deals are for good rates if they turn out well.  And they also open up trade opportunities down the road as we can now better match salaries to acquire elite talent, IF it becomes available down the road.

[colincb]

Williams’s deal was originally reported to be worth $54 million over the length of that extension. However, multiple league sources tell MassLive that the deal is only worth $48 million in guaranteed money with the remaining $6 million in earnings serving as ‘unlikely’ incentives that won’t initially count against the salary cap. Jay King of the Athletic was first to report the non-guaranteed portion of the deal.

https://www.masslive.com/celtics/2021/08/sources-robert-williams-extension-is-not-fully-guaranteed-includes-multiple-incentives.html

[Celtics2021]

Williams’s deal was originally reported to be worth $54 million over the length of that extension. However, multiple league sources tell MassLive that the deal is only worth $48 million in guaranteed money with the remaining $6 million in earnings serving as ‘unlikely’ incentives that won’t initially count against the salary cap. Jay King of the Athletic was first to report the non-guaranteed portion of the deal.

https://www.masslive.com/celtics/2021/08/sources-robert-williams-extension-is-not-fully-guaranteed-includes-multiple-incentives.html

It should be noted that while the article talks about the incentives not counting against the salary cap, which is true, the Celtics are a cap team next year without trades.  The bonuses would count against the hard cap if we subject ourselves to it, even if they remain unlikely.

[Vermont Green]

From there, Williams has an opportunity to earn a bit over one million dollars each year of the contract in an array of team-based and individual incentives. The biggest incentive each year involves playing time, with Williams set to earn an extra $446,000 for each year of the deal he plays 69 or more games, per sources. Williams will also be able to add to those earnings during those 69-plus game seasons based on Boston’s team success. He will receive an extra bonus worth over $200,000 if the Celtics make the Eastern Conference Semifinals and Conference Finals in any season during which he hits his playing time incentive.

This all seems reasonable and results in an even more team friendly deal.

[jambr380]

For those wondering, here is the full breakdown of the incentives. Credit to ramblinwreck93 on Cs Reddit for the formatting:

Guaranteed Salary by Year
2022-23: $10.7M
2023-24: $11.6M
2024-25: $12.4M
2025-26: $13.3M

Fully guaranteed/No player option/No team option

Bonuses:
Bonus Condition A: $446K bonus if he plays at least 69 regular season games
Bonus Condition B: $223K bonus if Condition A is met and Boston makes the 2nd round of the playoffs
Bonus Condition C: $223K bonus if Condition A is met and Boston makes the ECF

Total availability bonuses per season: $892K

All-Defense Bonuses:
Additional bonuses for 1st Team All-Defense and 2nd Team All-Defense
Dollar figure not disclosed for these bonuses, but presumably up to ~$600K per season

[Celtics2021]

For those wondering, here is the full breakdown of the incentives. Credit to ramblinwreck93 on Cs Reddit for the formatting:

Guaranteed Salary by Year
2022-23: $10.7M
2023-24: $11.6M
2024-25: $12.4M
2025-26: $13.3M

Fully guaranteed/No player option/No team option

Bonuses:
Bonus Condition A: $446K bonus if he plays at least 69 regular season games
Bonus Condition B: $223K bonus if Condition A is met and Boston makes the 2nd round of the playoffs
Bonus Condition C: $223K bonus if Condition A is met and Boston makes the ECF

Total availability bonuses per season: $892K

All-Defense Bonuses:
Additional bonuses for 1st Team All-Defense and 2nd Team All-Defense
Dollar figure not disclosed for these bonuses, but presumably up to ~$600K per season

Here’s hoping TimeLord get his full $54 million!