The Pats have been playing this year with a very conservative gameplan. them losing another close game should not be a surprise because when you coach conservatively you lose more times then you win, especially when your roster on the whole isn't very good. That said, Bill has that job until he doesn't want that job. McDaniels, though, I think he could start to see his seat get warm if he continues down this playing not to lose path. He has to take the reigns off and let Mac go. He may fail, but at least you get to see what you have in him.
Pats have to be conservative right now. They are playing with a patchwork offensive line. They don't have receivers that can create separation that opens up the vertical game. Their best and really only receiving back is out for the season. Their best receiving options are good but not great or dominant TEs. And they have a rookie QB, that even though has played incredibly for his age and experience, needs to be managed properly for the team to win.
For the Patriots to win this year, they have to win the time of possession. They have to have a sustained running game. They have to kill it with the double TE sets during passing downs because the WRs are not explosive, fast or large and powerful.
The Pats need to walk a fine line to win versus the best teams in this league, and the are trying like hell to do it. But all it takes is splay or two and things will go sideways quick.
This is a rebuilding year, lots of money spent in free agency or not. Develop Jones the right way. That is the most important thing to do. He has been about the best rookie in the league. He will pay dividends, just not this year, so you don't ruin his confidence or get him killed or let him think he doesn't have the chance to be the difference maker in winning.
The Pats will be fine but if people are expecting long playoff runs or 10+ win season this year, they're just fooling themselves.
I actually disagree with your conclusion. When your OL isn't that good, you need to create big explosive plays. You can't play the conservative game, because they aren't going to be able to hang on long enough. The Pats need to score fast and get the OL off the field. They need to let Mac go and see if he really can be the long term guy.
I do agree it is a rebuilding year, but that doesn't mean they shouldn't try to win games. They are playing not to lose and not playing to win. They should have beaten Miami, Tampa, and Dallas, but failed because they didn't trust Mac to go out and win the game.
Absolutely ridiculous.
To develop the vertical passing game you need an O-line to give the QB and receivers time to make the play develop, unless the WRs are super fast and able to create separation on a regular basis. And that's if the defense is playing man and not hanging coverage 2 on the backside.
And....at this point, the best interest of the team as a whole is to have long sustained drives to keep the defense off the field. That means running the ball with high percentage completion passing game mixed in.
Your idea of developing a QB is asinine. You bring them along at a slower pace and manage them. You don't hang them out to dry and get them pulverized because they are sitting back there waiting for plays to develop. You don't kill their confidence. You don't make them feel like they have to be a hero for the team to win.
Given the injuries and personnel, Belichick is handling Jones perfectly. Mac is getting better every week. They are adding new wrinkles in every week. When Jones can go up to the line of scrimmage and be able to audible into anything he wants and pull it off with success, the will let him loose. Mac ain't there yet so you manage him and the game until you don't have to. They aren't there yet.
No to play a slow conservative run oriented offensive game you need a great OL. You can't rely on a bad OL for 10+ play drives. They won't hold up that long and will make devastating mistakes. You need big plays that get big yards. The teams that have had success running the 3 yards and a cloud of dust type offenses have great OL's. You quite simply can't run long time eating drives with a bad OL, because the OL will invariably fail leading to the end of those drives. They don't have the ability to get the ball over the hump. It is why the Patriots can move the ball, but can't put it in the end zone. The OL isn't good enough. They need the big plays to get huge yardage plays. They have to air it out more. That is the only way they are going to win games because it is the way to maximize a weak OL. In addition, it stops teams from just loading up in the box. Without the deep throws and downfield plays the offense becomes predictable. It is why they can outgain an awful Dolphins team by over 100 yards and lose. Or why Mac can "outplay" Tom and they lose with some questionable play calling. Or why they can't score in OT when they get the ball first. The offense is too predictable and too conservative.
Teams are blitzing the Pats on a regular basis. Dallas did as well by setting seven in the box, rushing 4 and blitzing one while dropping two into coverage. They brought guys in from different directions on the regular. They played lots of cover 1 with man underneath.
With 5-6 guys coming in on the pass rush, Jones didn't have time to go deep. He was absolutely killed on two different sacks. Not smothered and tackled. Violent hits that can hurt people. If the Pats tried to go deep down field, that would have happened a lot more.
The Pats line, even though a patchwork, are better at run blocking than pass blocking. That is the strength you have to play to. But they suck at both. So they have to attempt to establish the run while mixing in quick slants, screens, out routes and timing play comeback curls. All those passes get the ball out of Jones' hands fast and protect him from getting killed. If successful, that should put points on the board while winning the time of possession and keeping the defense off the field.
It almost worked. Twice. Against two of the best teams in the league.
Doing things your way would be hanging Mac out to dry. It would put your future star in jeopardy of getting killed. It would ruin his confidence and his long term development.
Mahomes played one game his rookie year. Rodgers sat for his first three years. Drew Brees barely played his rookie year and was bad his second. Brady was managed and had to manage the game his first year, getting better every week.
Most of the very best guys were brought along slowly. Meanwhile, the amount of QBs that became nothing, who were often overwhelmed by trying to do too much while getting killed by being sacked so much, is enormous.
Mac Jones is having a very good year. He is one of the league leaders in completion percentage. Not rookie leaders, league leaders. He is extremely accurate on all his throws:short, medium and long. I am pretty sure he has had 3TD throws come back due to penalties. He gets a little better every week. He is developing tremendously and doing so because of the style of offense being run given the personnel packages he has.
I think Belichick and McDaniels are doing a great job of developing him.
Does that mean the Patriots have a razor thin edge they are straddling in order to win? Yup.
Does the fan base hate it because they aren't seeing Brady with the complete confidence of his coaches and absolute power with a full playbook at his disposal to audible plays into? Yup.
But if the fan base wants a star QB to lead them to future Super Bowls, this is the proper way to do it, given the makeup of the current team. Growing pains will need to be lived with and losses are going to happen. My guess is by year's end, the Pats will beat a really good team or two and have easier wins over bad teams.
That's progress. That's how Belichick teams work. That's how you develop star QBs.